Primary Sidebar
Tigers Fan Confidence Poll
Last tallied on 09/01.
Presented by
RMN Gear
RMN Exclusives
Bill Carter Photos
ZouDave Videos
The Rafters
The Rafters
Rock M Nation honors Mizzou basketball greats
Class of 2010
Willie Smith
Steve Stipanovich
Doug Smith
Kareem Rush
DeMarre Carroll
RMN Looks at Mizzou's Football History
RMN's Mizzou Football History Hub
Wall of Excellence
Links
Mizzou Links
mutigers.com
PowerMizzou
Tigerboard
Columbia Tribune Sports Page
Missourian Sports Page
Maneater sports page
KC Star Mizzou Page
StL P-D Mizzou Page
Inside Mizzou
SimmonsField.com
Mizzou Blogs
Dave Matter's blog
Steve Walentik's blog
Mizzourah
Behind Enemy Lines
It's Great to Be a Tiger
Atomic Teeth
Weather
Weather Channel - Columbia
Other Blogs
Big 12 War Blog
ESPN Big 12 Blog
Dr. Saturday (the former SMQB)
Streaking the Quad
In the Bleachers
Clearinghouse Chaos
Doc's Sports Blog
MIZZOU 25
Ben Askren: Mizzou 25 Champion
Norm Stewart: Mizzou 25 Coaches Champion
Brian Smith: Mizzou 25 Coaches Champion
Football Fanatics
Week 1 BTBS Picks
by Bill C. on Sep 2, 2010 11:00 AM CDT
in National Football 2010
14 comments
It's that time of year again. As with last year, I will post my against-the-spread picks here on Wednesday/Thursday. The basis for these picks will be based on Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings (a combination of my S&P+ and Brian Fremeau's FEI). Last year I used my own S&P+ ratings, but I'm moving to the F/+ for a couple of reasons: 1) F/+ is more predictive of full-season success, and 2) I've already done the work to set up the F/+ projections and didn't want to circle back and do the same thing for a similar measure. F/+ is the way we're going this season. As I said, it is more accurate in terms of predicting the season as a whole, but we have yet to see how it will do on a per-game basis.
This offseason, I had grand intentions of diving full-force into the numbers and trying my damnedest to figure out the perfect formula to be using against the spread. I even solicited volunteers to help me with it. Alas, I "tried my damnedest" on about 75 other projects as well, and this one fell by the wayside. I've made a couple of tweaks, but this is primarily the same approach as I took last year. If F/+ itself is no more accurate predicting single games than S&P+ was, then we will probably see the same trend we saw last year -- get off to a hot start while Vegas is figuring things out, then slowly fade. I'll hope for the best, expect the worst. Or if not the worst, then the mediocre...est.
I've got to say, Vegas is starting off quite conservatively this year. Lots of "mid-major vs major" games have spreads much closer than I would have expected (Clemson -24 over North Texas, USC -21.5 over Hawaii, Mississippi State -21.5 over Memphis, to name three). As a result, there are quite a few games here where the projection and spread are quite far off. As the season progresses, I'm sure Vegas will go back to torturing me (I was getting really sick of projecting Team A to beat Team B by 9.6, then finding out the spread was Team A -9.5).
Alright, let's get rolling.
- Games in bold involve Big 12 teams.
- VERDICTS IN ALL CAPS SIGNIFY STRAIGHT-UP UPSETS
- Games with "LOCK" next to the verdict are those where the spread and projection are more than 20 points apart ... suggesting the projections feel pretty safe about the pick. Locks did not fare well last year ... at least no better than any other picks. We'll see what happens this time around.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 9/2 | 6:30pm | Marshall at Ohio State | tOSU by 42.3 | tOSU -28.5 | Ohio State |
| Minnesota at Middle Tennessee | Minny by 7.4 | Minny -2.5 | Minnesota | ||
| Southern Miss at South Carolina | S. Caro. by 20.4 | S. Caro -13.5 | S. Carolina | ||
| 7:00pm | Florida Atlantic at UAB | UAB by 10.1 | UAB -15 (??) | Fla. Atlantic | |
| Northern Illinois at Iowa State | ISU by 8.3 | ISU -5 | Iowa State | ||
| 7:30pm | Pittsburgh at Utah | Pitt by 5.5 | Utah -3 | PITTSBURGH | |
| 10:00pm | USC at Hawaii | USC by 28.7 | USC -21.5 | USC | |
| Fri., 9/3 | 7:00pm | Arizona at Toledo | Arizona by 22.2 | Arizona -15.5 | Arizona |
| Sat., 9/4 | 11:00am | Miami-OH at Florida | Florida by 61.0 | Florida -35 | Florida (LOCK) |
| W. Michigan at Michigan State | State by 30.9 | State -23 | Mich. State | ||
| 11:21am | UL-Lafayette at Georgia | Georgia by 41.7 | Georgia -28 | Georgia | |
| 11:30am | Illinois vs MIzzou | Mizzou by 9.0 | Mizzou -11.5 | Illinois | |
| 1:00pm | Colorado vs Colorado State | CU by 10.1 | CU -12 | CSU | |
| 2:30pm | Purdue at Notre Dame | N.D. by 8.5 | N.D. -11 | Purdue | |
| Kentucky at Louisville | UK by 2.5 | UK -3 | Louisville | ||
| UConn at Michigan | Michigan by 4.9 | Michigan -3 | Michigan | ||
| North Texas at Clemson | Clemson by 44.2 | Clemson -24 | Clemson (LOCK) | ||
| Texas at Rice | Texas by 51.8 | Texas -30.5 | Texas (LOCK) | ||
| UCLA at Kansas State | UCLA by 4.9 | UCLA +1.5 | UCLA | ||
| New Mexico at Oregon | Oregon by 44.7 | Oregon -34 | Oregon | ||
| 5:00pm | Syracuse at Akron | 'Cuse by 12.6 | 'Cuse -8.5 | Syracuse | |
| 6:00pm | Arkansas State at Auburn | Auburn by 41.4 | Auburn -31 | Auburn | |
| W. Kentucky at Nebraska | NU by 50.2 | NU by 37.5 | Nebraska | ||
| Washington St. at Oklahoma St. | OSU by 39.3 | OSU -15.5 | OSU (LOCK) | ||
| Utah State at Oklahoma | OU by 46.9 | OU -34 | Oklahoma | ||
| Washington at BYU | BYU by 15.9 | BYU -3 | BYU | ||
| San Jose State at Alabama | 'Bama by 62.9 | 'Bama -37.5 | Alabama (LOCK) | ||
| Memphis at Mississippi State | MSU by 28.4 | MSU -21.5 | Mississippi St. | ||
| Army at Eastern Michigan | Army by 2.5 | Army -9.5 | EMU | ||
| Bowling Green at Troy | Troy by 9.0 | Troy -14 | BGSU | ||
| Northwestern at Vanderbilt | NW'ern by 4.2 | NW'ern -5.5 | Vandy | ||
| Oregon State at TCU | TCU by 19.6 | TCU -13.5 | TCU | ||
| 7:00pm | LSU vs North Carolina | LSU by 9.1 | LSU -4 | LSU | |
| 9:00pm | Cincinnati at Fresno State | Cincy by 17.9 | Cincy +3 | CINCY (LOCK) | |
| 10:00pm | Wisconsin at UNLV | Wiscy by 30.2 | Wiscy -20.5 | Wiscy | |
| Sun., 9/5 | 1:00pm | Tulsa at East Carolina | ECU by 8.2 | ECU + 8.5 (??) | ECU |
| 2:30pm | SMU at Texas Tech | Tech by 34.3 | Tech -14 | Tech (LOCK) | |
| Mon., 9/6 | 3:00pm | Navy at Maryland | Terps by 0.7 | Terps +6.5 | MARYLAND |
| 7:00pm | Boise State vs Virginia Tech | VT by 10.4 | VT +2 | VIRGINIA TECH |
Yes, Mizzou by only 9.0. Illinois fares better in the projections (they're projected 61st overall) than one would expect, though obviously it was hard for me to factor in the effect of a new coaching staff. I could certainly see MU-Illinois playing out a lot like the 2003 MU-UI game, where MU was clearly the better team, but Illinois had the emotional edge and stuck around much longer than they should have.
Picks I Feel Safest About:
- East Carolina +8.5 Tulsa. I do not understand this line at all. I checked it six times to make sure it wasn't ECU -8.5.
- Cincinnati +3 Fresno State. I think Cincinnati has too much offensive firepower ... which is an amazing thing to say considering what they lost from last season.
- Texas -30.5 Rice. Rice should be quite a bit improved over last year ... and they'll still lose by 34, minimum.
- Oklahoma State -15.5 Washington State. Wazzu was one of the worst major conference teams ever last year, and while I love an underdog story, they're going to have to prove to me that they've improved. Year #3 is usually a good one for a new coach (WSU's Paul Wulff is entering Year #3), but they're just starting from so far behind.
- Florida -35 Miami-OH. They're too good, they're too athletic, they're being slept on just a tad, and Miami was really bad last year. Florida could win this one by 41 while sleepwalking. (And I could say this exact same thing about 'Bama vs SJSU.)
Picks I Feel Queasiest About:
- Maryland +6.5 Navy. As we learned last year, playing Navy is not like playing any other team. Sometimes mediocre teams solve the Navy offense better than good teams. Will Maryland? Absolutely no clue. And I would not touch this line with a ten-foot pole.
- Pittsburgh +3 Utah. I actually really like Pitt, but a) this is a really long trip, and sometimes those don't go well, and b) liking Pitt just makes me nervous. Call it The Wannstache Effect. (Or, as fans of other schools may have once called it, The Pinkel Effect.)
- South Carolina -13.5 Southern Miss. I think the 'Cocks defense is outstanding, and they should by all means win this game, but the offense is just iffy enough to let Southern Miss hang around longer than they should.
- Nebraska -37.5 Western Kentucky. WKU doesn't have a prayer in this game, obviously, but with that offense, NU could mess around for a while and 'only' win something like 38-3, which is not enough to cover.
- TCU -13.5 Oregon State. I really, really like TCU. The problem is, I really like Oregon State too. A two-thirds empty Jerry Dome will negate a bit of TCU's home-field advantage, and ... quite frankly, 13.5 is just a ton. I think TCU will win, but by two touchdowns?
Caption This Thursday
ILLINOIS BASKETBALL " CHIEF ILLINIWEK "
$19.95
24 x 18 inch poster of Chief Illiniwek. Under The photo, it says "Honor The Chief Society". The photo features the Chief jumping at the end of the dance on Memorial Field.
You can buy this poster HERE. I might be more willing to plunk down the 20 bones if it said something different. Hmmmmmm...........
Needless to say, the Thunder was brought on Wednesday. You all took the challenge to heart.
Congrats to Gaknar for channeling Al Czervik. Needless to say, it's a Cinderella Story. Blaineys may be redeemed for Cokes at the Caddyshack. But don't let Danny rip you off. I ain't payin' no 50 Blaineys for no Coke.
Fire away at the ol' Chief here, and REC any caption that moves you.
Wisdom of the Crowds: Big 12 Championship
by Bill C. on Sep 2, 2010 9:01 AM CDT
in Wisdom of the Crowds
4 comments
The votes for the Thanksgiving Weekend games are in, and, as usually, you guys both impressed and amused me.
- Texas Tech def. Houston by 10 (52.5%)
- Texas def. Texas A&M by 11 (86.9%)
- Oklahoma def. Oklahoma State by 12 (83.5%)
- Nebraska def. Colorado by 15 (93.9%)
- Kansas State def. North Texas by 17 (89.9%)
- Mizzou def. Kansas by 24 (94.9%)
And yes, because it's Kansas, I left in the votes saying Mizzou would win by 70, 666 and, oddly, 157.2. Also: more people picked North Texas over Kansas State than Mizzou over Kansas. God bless you guys.
Your standings:
| Team | Conf. Rec. | Record | Pt. Diff. |
| North | |||
| Missouri | 7-1 | 11-1 | +177 |
| Nebraska | 6-2 | 9-3 | +129 |
| Kansas State | 4-4 | 7-5 | +20 |
| Iowa State | 2-6 | 4-8 | -79 |
| Colorado | 1-7 | 3-9 | -95 |
| Kansas | 0-8 | 2-10 | -91 |
| South | |||
| Oklahoma | 8-0 | 12-0 | +194 |
| Texas | 7-1 | 11-1 | +226 |
| Texas A&M | 4-4 | 7-5 | +69 |
| Texas Tech | 4-4 | 8-4 | +67 |
| Baylor | 3-5 | 6-6 | -8 |
| Oklahoma State | 2-6 | 6-6 | +44 |
The real upset, I guess, is that Kansas won any games at all. Big 12 Championship picks after the jump.
Mizzou Links, 9-2-10
by Bill C. on Sep 2, 2010 5:35 AM CDT
in News
17 comments
First things first: for those thirsting for a Fastest 40 Minutes podcast, our schedules have just been too crazy to knock one out. However, you can tide yourself over with the KBIA Sports Extra Weekly Podcast ... you might find a couple of voices you recognize...
Illinois
- KC Star: Former Rockhurst quarterback Scheelhaase says one loss has inspired him
- Peoria Journal-Star: Cupboard never bare at Missouri
- The Trib (Dave Matter): Missouri permanently suspends Washington
- The Missourian: Derrick Washington permanently suspended from MU football team
- KC Star (Campus Corner): Washington's Mizzou football career is over
- KC Star (Campus Corner): Washington family surprised by MU's actions
- KC Star: Wary of another Clemons fiasco, MU acted too fast on Washington
- PowerMizzou: Washington's career over for Tigers
- KBIA Sports Extra: Derrick Washington "permanently suspended" from Missouri football program
- Post-Dispatch: MU's Washington 'permanently' suspended
- Examiner.com: Missouri bans Derrick Washington from football activities
Kendial Lawrence, Et Al
- The Missourian: Lawrence and other Missouri tailbacks move to fill Washington's place
- InsideSTL.com (Gabe Dearmond): Without Washington, running game an unknown
- PowerMizzou: Ready to Run
- Fox Sports MW: Lawrence, Moore likely to carry the load out of Mizzou's backfield
More football links, plus the Big 12 and Tony Mitchell, after the jump.
Rock M Roundtable!
by Bill C. on Sep 1, 2010 5:00 PM CDT
in Rock M Roundtable!
68 comments
1 - With the Washington news (and yet another DWI this weekend), has your outlook on the 2010 Missouri football season changed at all since the last roundtable?
2 - Is a good disciplinarian somebody who comes down hard on rule-breakers, or somebody whose players don't break rules?
3 - What food and/or beverages will you be partaking in this Saturday?
4 - One of the most difficult showbiz transitions is from stand-up comedy to television. Who’s done it the best, and who’s done it the worst?
68 comments | 1 recs |
Just In Case You Guys Needed Another Kick in the Crotch...
Tony Mitchell was declared ineligible to play at Missouri according to his AAU coach.
#Mizzou has announced Derrick Washington has been "permanently suspended." He will not return to the Tiger football team.
Per Gabe's Twitter. So, if you're into that whole "closure" thing, this is about as clear as you're going to get.
Save us, Kendial Lawrence. You're our only hope.*
*-Not actually our only hope
Caption This Wednesday
Pinkel
Congrats to RPT for taking down his 3rd Caption Contest on Tuesday.
COME ON YOU SORRY SACKS OF SOY! CAPTION THIS!!!
...and vote for all of your favorites with a REC.
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Fighting mob mentality since Oct. 2007
Have you purchased your copy of the 2010 Missouri Football Preview yet?
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
2010 Missouri Football Preview Magazine
Available now!
The 2010 Missouri Football Preview includes:
-- "Embrace the Challenge," a column by Dave Matter of the Columbia Tribune
-- "Mizzou A-to-Z," a look at Mizzou Football by Michael Atchison, author of True Sons: A Century of Missouri Tigers Basketball
-- "A Missouri Fan's Letter to God" by Greg Tepper
-- "The Greatest Tailgate Ever" by Seth Rosner
-- Unit-by-unit walkthroughs of the 2010 Mizzou Tigers
-- Previews of all of Mizzou's 2010 opponents, as well as the three other Big 12 squads
-- A look back at seasons from 25, 50 and 75 years ago.
-- A one-stop reference guide for historical and statistical records
-- Tons of great photos by RMN's Bill Carter
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recommended FanShots
Recent FanShots
Featured Stories
RMN's Guide to Columbia
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
Most Commented
Time to Cleanse the Karma
by Bill C. 6 days ago
500 comments | 4 recs
Mizzou RB Derrick Washington suspended indefinitely for disciplinary reasons
by Bill C. 6 days ago
123 comments
Washington charged with felony deviate sexual assualt
by ghtd36 3 days ago
106 comments
#Mizzou has announced Derrick Washington has been "permanently suspended." He will not return to...
by ghtd36 1 day ago
100 comments
Caption This Wednesday Pinkel Congrats to RPT for taking down his 3rd Caption Contest on...
by SleepyFloyd7 1 day ago
71 comments