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Rock-M-Tology: February 8

by Bill C. on Feb 8, 2010 8:55 PM CST in Rock-M-tology Comment 13 comments

That's right, we're back! I've got to say that Chris from Blogging the Bracket has been doing such a nice job with his SBN Bracketology pieces that it somewhat killed my urge to actually do these this year. But a) they're still fun, b) Ross made this fun image that I'd hate to go to waste, and c) they're still fun. So I'm doing them. Below the jump is my first projected bracket of February.

Mid-Major Showcase

Three Mountain West teams and Butler are all fighting for a potential 4-seed. Gonzaga may end up a 5. Northern Iowa may end up a 6. Five mid-major teams are in the RPI Top 20 (#10 New Mexico, #12 Rhode Island, #13 Northern Iowa, #15 Butler, #17 Temple), while many major conference teams have winning records in their conference but RPIs of 60 or worse (#60 Marquette, #64 Virginia Tech, #72 Illinois, #94 Virginia, plus not those in the Pac-10, which frankly isn't a major conference this year). SIX Atlantic 10 teams might make The Dance.

In other words, this is a strange year.

Now, some of this weirdness will get ironed out in proceeding weeks -- just from having to finish their conference seasons, some of these mid-major stars will see their RPI regress -- but we're late enough in the season that I think it's safe to say we could end up with more mid-majors in the tourney ... just enough to make Jay Bilas' head explode (had to use Bilas instead of Billy Packer since Packer's no longer on my television).

Speaking of Bilas, when I was going back through last year's Rock-M-Tology posts, I found this one, in which I lambasted Bilas for proposing a 128-team NCAA Tournament with no automatic bids on College Gameday. Funny thing is, I have no recollection of this at all. I've slept a lot since then, I guess. And spent many hours writing about football. Anyway, it's just ironic, then, that he recently said this in regard to the NCAA's plan to look into expansion to 96 teams:

It’s not broken now. The best teams are competing. All we’re really saying is, 'Let’s add some more at the end and would that be tragic?' Of course not. It wouldn’t be bad. It just wouldn’t be in the best interest of the best teams. ... If it’s just to give more kids the experience of playing in the NCAA Tournament, we’re always going to want to add more for that reason. I don’t think that’s a good enough reason to get in the way of the best teams competing for the national championship.

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Moye quits MU football team

Per Matter. Not particularly surprising. I'm sorry it didn't work out for him, and I wish him the best.

about 11 hours ago AlaTiger 4 comments 0 recs

It's SBN Bracketology day!

Here's a hint for MU's second round opponent.

The full bracket can be found here.

about 13 hours ago RPT 13 comments 0 recs

Mizzou Links, 2-8-10

by Bill C. on Feb 8, 2010 5:49 AM CST in News Comment 25 comments

Alright, so what did everybody eat last night? The wife and I have strangely developed a habit out of making some big meal we haven't made before the day of the game, and this year it was Moussaka ... basically Greek lasagna.

Anyway, the wife also doesn't really like Valentine's Day, so ... does that mean our Valentine's date is cooking for the Super Bowl? Lucky man am I!

MU > CU

The Trib: Tigers bounce back, beat Colorado
The Trib: MU big men rebound from a poor outing
The Trib: Haven't forgotten how to win
The Missourian: Missouri easily beats Colorado
KC Star: Denmon, English power MU's 84-66 win over Colorado
KC Star: MU notebook
Post-Dispatch: Mizzou motors past Buffaloes
Post-Dispatch: Missouri 84, Colorado 66
PowerMizzou: Tigers blow out the Buffs

Big 12 Basketball Links

Big 12 Hoops: The Weekend in Big 12 Basketball
Kansas 75, Nebraska 64
ESPN.com: Cole Aldrich keys second half run as No. 1 Kansas edges Nebraska
KC Star: Kansas plays good enough to beat Nebraska
Topeka Capital-Journal: Don't anger The Hulk
Austin American-Statesman: Aldrich, Jayhawks bring their top-ranked show to Texas
Oklahoma 80, Texas 71
ESPN.com: Oklahoma sends Texas to fourth loss in last six games
Burnt Orange Nation: On Criticism
Burnt Orange Nation: Sifting Through the Rubble: Texas' Epic Fail in Norman
Crimson and Cream Machine: Holding Court -- Oklahoma Stays Perfect At Home By Outrunning the Longhorns
Daily Oklahoman: OU men's basketball notebook: Game marked by day-long tribute to Wayman Tisdale
Houston Chronicle: Barnes says Longhorns don't see big picture
Kansas State 79, Iowa State 75
ESPN.com: Denis Clemente's season-high 30 key K-State to 4th straight road win
KC Star: Clemente's 30 points carry Kansas State past Iowa State
Texas A&M 78, Baylor 71
ESPN.com: B.J. Holmes' late 3-pointers help Texas A&M rally vs Baylor
Texas Tech 81, Oklahoma State 74
ESPN.com: John Roberson's season-high 28 points lead Texas Tech to win
Double-T Nation: Post Game Thoughts :: OSU 74, Texas Tech 81
Daily Oklahoman: Bad day for James Anderson, Cowboys
Daily Oklahoman: OSU basketball insider: At 4-5, Cowboys feeling the heat

Football

The Trib (Dave Matter): George Pinkel, coach's father, passes

George Pinkel died on Saturday morning, MU spokesman Chad Moller confirmed. He was 83.

A few years ago Gary Pinkel shared with me some stories about his parents, Gay and George. He and his father grew particularly close over the last 20 years, sharing emails daily as Pinkel worked on building football programs and George toiled on his autobiography from his assisted living facility in Columbus, Ohio. George, a native of Buffalo, N.Y., liked to take apart radios, TVs and computers and build them back from a pile of parts.

"There’s no one else in his place who even has a computer, and he’s in touch with the whole world," Pinkel told me in December 2007. "That’s been awesome for him. ... When the computer came out, he dove on it. It was so intriguing to him."
Mocking the Draft: Shake's Mock Draft
31. New Orleans, Sean Weatherspoon
Both Saints OLBs are over 30, Weatherspoon should add some more attacking speed to that D.
The Trib (Dave Matter): MU's Daniel joins Super, Saintly company

Football Live Thread: SUPER BOWL XLIV

by Bill C. on Feb 7, 2010 5:00 PM CST in Live Threads Comment 527 comments

FILE - In this Dec. 7, 2009 photo, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees warms up before the NFL football game against the Washington Redskins in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

More photos » Nick Wass - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Dec. 7, 2009 photo, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees warms up before the NFL football game against the Washington Redskins in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

Browse more photos »

Don't have a Super Bowl party to attend? You've got one right here!

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What Matters Most to Mizzou?

by Bill C. on Feb 7, 2010 10:28 AM CST in Mizzou Basketball 09-10 Comment 9 comments

More photos » L.G. Patterson - AP

Marcus Denmon: Mizzou's biggest X-factor.

Browse more photos »

A while ago on Anchor of Gold (SBN's Vandy blog), I saw a post I really enjoyed, called "Who Drives the 'Dores?" The idea was simple: take a look at the stats from wins and losses and see where the biggest differences are. The AOG post focused mostly on things like points per game, but what would the data look like if I took the typical stats we look at here before and after games, and break them out for wins and losses?

The below data takes a look at only games against "real" opponents, removing all of the UT-Pan American's from the slate (because what would that data really tell us?). In all, Mizzou has played 15 "real" opponents in 2009-10, per my own definition: vs Old Dominion, vs Richmond, at Vandy, Oregon, at Oral Roberts, vs Illinois, Georgia, and all conference games. They have gone 9-6 in those games. Below is the data from the nine wins, compared to the six losses. Obviously this is a small enough sample size that one particularly great or terrible game can still skew things a bit, but I think this data still has a pretty good story to tell.

Team Stats

	Mizzou Wins		Mizzou Losses
	Mizzou	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Points Per Minute	2.08	1.68	1.64	1.81
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.18	0.96	0.95	1.05
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.39	1.20	1.06	1.36
2-PT FG%	48.2%	43.8%	39.0%	50.9%
3-PT FG%	41.0%	31.6%	32.5%	36.1%
FT%	74.2%	71.4%	74.3%	72.2%
True Shooting %	58.2%	50.6%	46.8%	56.9%

	Mizzou	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Assists/Gm	17.3	9.9	10.5	12.8
Steals/Gm	10.0	7.2	10.7	5.7
Turnovers/Gm	13.9	19.4	10.7	20.0
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.97	0.88	1.98	0.93

	Mizzou	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Exp. Off. Rebounds/Gm	12.8	13.2	14.7	11.2
Off. Rebounds/Gm	13.8	14.7	11.5	14.0
Difference	+1.0	+1.5	-3.2	+3.2

Mizzou's wins have actually been played at a pace similar to their losses -- 71.5 possessions per game in wins, 69.1 in losses. That's not as big a disparity as we may have guessed.

In all, a lot of this data is easy to explain -- in wins, Mizzou plays better offense, better defense, and rebounds better. Duh. But let's take a look at the biggest disparities and the biggest surprises:

Points Per Shot: Mizzou gathers almost 25% less payback per shot in losses than in wins. That is a huge difference. In losses, their 1.06 PPS suggests one clear thing: they're taking too many long shots, and they're not getting to the line. Sometimes they're even missing the shorter shots too. We knew heading into this year that pure shooting and offensive talent might be an issue, particularly around the basket, and that has very clearly been the case thus far, at least in the lapses that lead to losses.
FG%: While Mizzou's defense is a bit worse in terms of FG% defense, it is again the offense with the bigger disparity. Mizzou falls from a good 3-point shooting team to an iffy-at-best one, and they fall from a decent 2-point shooting team to one of the worst in the country. The 2-point shooting fails in a lot of different ways -- sometimes, as with the Kansas game, they shoot far too many low-percentage 17-footers; sometimes they miss 10-foot runner after 10-foot runner; and sometimes they just can't connect near the basket -- but Mizzou is a really bad shooting team in losses.
Free Throws: While Mizzou allows roughly the same number of free throws in wins and losses, they shoot a much higher number of FTs in wins. Part of that can be explained by them being ahead and getting fouled (think of the end of the Illinois and Texas Tech games, for example), but they shoot eight more FTs per game in wins, and at least some of that is likely due to a bit more physical play and aggressiveness ... though not as much as we might have thought.
Assists: Perhaps no stat wraps the story together better than the assists total. In wins, Mizzou is scoring more easy buckets and averaging 17.3 dimes/game. In losses, 10.5. Perhaps this shows you how the FG%'s are lower as well -- not only is Mizzou missing more shots, but they're apparently not setting up as many easy shots via the pass. We want Mizzou to "penetrate more" and "get to the basket," but the bigger problem has perhaps been with ball movement than penetration (and yes, sometimes penetration sets up ball movement).

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Study Hall: Mizzou vs Colorado -- The Bounceback

by Bill C. on Feb 6, 2010 9:19 PM CST in Mizzou Basketball 09-10 Comment 23 comments

Image via KC Star. STEEEEEEEEEVE.

Your trifecta: Denmon-English-Ramsey. Your winner: nobody. We've had one winner in four games. Try harder, people!

Mizzou 84, Colorado 66

NCAA Basketball

	Mizzou	CU
Points Per Minute	2.10	1.65
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.16	0.91
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.53	1.18
2-PT FG%	51.4%	35.7%
3-PT FG%	44.4%	35.7%
FT%	81.5%	77.8%
True Shooting %	62.8%	48.6%

	Mizzou	CU
Assists	20	11
Steals	11	11
Turnovers	16	16
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.94	1.38

	Mizzou	CU
Expected Offensive Rebounds	11	14
Offensive Rebounds	9	11
Difference	-2	-3

Let's just say...

...that anytime Mizzou shoots over 40% from 3-point range, over 50% on 2-pointers, and over 80% from the line, AND outrebounds their opponent ... and puts up double-digit steals to boot ... yeah, they're going to win, and probably by double digits. Colorado kept things inside 20 points by racking up the steals and making free throws as they tend to do, but this was Good Mizzou, and it was a welcome sight.

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Marcus Denmoney demands respect!

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2 days ago ratherfantastic 7 comments 7 recs

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