EqPts: the latest craze

Picking up where I left off last week...

We're working with something I'm calling EqPts, an 'equivalent points' total generated from the points per play for each play teams ran and the turnover costliness as discussed in the last post.

Before I get into the big list, I'll work through one game to show what I'm talking about.

Texas A&M 34, Baylor 10

Total from 'Points Per Play'

Texas A&M: 35.28
Baylor: 12.24

Turnover Costliness

Texas A&M: 2.77
Baylor: 6.57

So ATM was +3.80 on turnovers.  Add 1.90 to ATM's score and subtract 1.90 from Baylor's...

Texas A&M: 37.18
Baylor: 10.34

Not bad.

Click 'Full Story' for more.

So here's a graph of all the scores of in-conference games so far...the blue is the actual score, while the, uhh, magenta I guess, is the EqPts score.

Basically the problems with this simple(ish) equation are that the low estimates aren't quite low enough and the high ones aren't quite high enough.  But the middle ones are juuuuuuuust right.  I'm not sure why this is--if it has something to do with special teams (which I still haven't figured out how to take into account), or whether it's simply a momentum issue...where you can only dominate so much statistically and anything beyond that is simply momentum and the timing of big plays or something.  But either way, this gives you a good idea of which games should have been closer and which shouldn't have been.

So let's walk through the Big 12 games...

September 22

Texas Tech at OSU
EqPts: OSU 45.42, Tech 44.46
Actual: OSU 49, Tech 45

September 29

Baylor at Texas A&M
EqPts: ATM 37.18, Baylor 10.34
Actual: ATM 34, Baylor 10

Iowa State at Nebraska
EqPts: NU 30.63, ISU 21.93
Actual: NU 35, ISU 17

Kansas State at Texas
EqPts: KSU 21.35, UT 17.79
Actual: KSU 41, UT 21
(Big difference here...most likely due to the kick and punt return TD's)

Oklahoma at Colorado
EqPts: Colorado 19.85, Oklahoma 19.35
Actual: Colorado 27, Oklahoma 24

October 6

Colorado at Baylor
EqPts: 27.89, Baylor 25.01
Actual: Colorado 43, Baylor 23
(Colorado winning with smoke and mirrors here)

Iowa State at Texas Tech
EqPts: Tech 32.13, ISU 16.12
Actual: Tech 42, ISU 17

Kansas at Kansas State
EqPts: Kansas 28.04, KSU 22.05
Actual: KU 30, KSU 24

Nebraska at Mizzou
EqPts: MU 38.22, NU 12.26
Actual: MU 41, NU 6

Oklahoma State at Texas A&M
EqPts: ATM 26.02, OSU 22.49
Actual: ATM 24, OSU 23

Oklahoma vs Texas
EqPts: OU 28.17, UT 20.26
Actual: OU 28, UT 21
(seriously, this formula's pretty damn good sometimes)

October 13

Baylor at Kansas
EqPts: KU 36.73, BU 5.19
Actual: KU 58, BU 10

Colorado at Kansas State
EqPts: KSU 36.17, CU 19.12
Actual: KSU 47, CU 20

Mizzou at Oklahoma
EqPts: OU 30.99, MU 24.37
Actual: OU 41, MU 31

Oklahoma State at Nebraska
EqPts: OSU 41.93, NU 15.91
Actual: OSU 45, NU 14

Texas A&M at Texas Tech
EqPts: Tech 34.11, ATM 17.52
Actual: Tech 35, ATM 7

Texas at Iowa State
EqPts: UT 43.90, ISU 6.07
Actual: UT 56, ISU 3

October 20

Kansas at Colorado
EqPts: Kansas 22.45, Colorado 18.50
Actual: Kansas 19, Colorado 14

Kansas State at Oklahoma State
EqPts: KSU 34.54, OSU 34.40
Actual: OSU 41, KSU 39
(The first result that would have actually changed...which makes sense because KSU totally blew about 18 different chances)

Oklahoma at Iowa State
EqPts: OU 16.82, ISU 16.40
Actual: OU 17, ISU 7
(OU got lucky to win this.  They're not even half the team on the road as they are at home.)

Texas A&M at Nebraska
EqPts: ATM 32.04, NU 21.56
Actual: ATM 36, NU 14

Texas at Baylor
EqPts: Texas 29.30, BU 15.83
Actual: Texas 31, Baylor 10

Texas Tech at Mizzou
EqPts: MU 33.28, Tech 17.59
Actual: MU 41, Tech 10


So let's categorize this...

Total from 'Points Per Play' (Offense)

  1. Oklahoma State: 36.06 PPG
  1. Texas Tech: 32.07
  1. Missouri: 31.95
  1. Kansas: 29.08
  1. Kansas State: 28.53
  1. Texas A&M: 28.19
  1. Texas: 27.81
  1. Oklahoma: 23.81
  1. Colorado: 21.36
  1. Nebraska: 20.09
  1. Iowa State: 15.13
  1. Baylor: 14.09

Total from 'Points Per Play' (Defense)

  1. Kansas: 15.25
  1. Texas: 17.86
  1. Oklahoma: 20.24
  1. Missouri: 20.28
  1. Texas A&M: 22.13
  1. Kansas State: 24.84
  1. Colorado: 25.72
  1. Oklahoma State: 30.23
  1. Texas Tech: 28.08
  1. Iowa State: 30.87
  1. Baylor: 32.77
  1. Nebraska: 33.53

Turnover Costliness Margin (per game)

  1. Kansas: 2.36
  1. Kansas State: 2.06
  1. Oklahoma: 1.57
  1. Oklahoma State: 1.13
  1. Texas A&M: 1.06
  1. Missouri: 0.22
  1. Texas: -0.42
  1. Nebraska: -0.48
  1. Iowa State: -1.12
  1. Texas Tech: -1.28
  1. Baylor: -2.19
  1. Colorado: -2.27

To be continued...whether you like it or not...

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