going to bed in my mizzou shirt, and then waking up just in time for gametime ready to go.

...and didn't get around to posting it until now, so I'll just post it as a comment on this thread.

COTTON BOWL PREVIEW & PREDICTION

As I mentioned Thursday during the BTBS Preview, once I delved into Arkansas' play-by-plays and numbers, I got a different impression than what I initially had.  This is a good and athletic team that tends to play much better in the first half than the second.  Key breakdowns prevented them from being an upper-echelon team this year, but they're dangerous.

Mizzou QB vs Arkansas Defense: There are three ways to defend Chase Daniel and the Mizzou spread--1) attack, 2) umbrella (the Rihanna defense), and 3) confuse.  Defense #3 only works if you have a talented secondary and pass rush.  OU was the only team to successfully attempt and execute Defense #3, and consequently they were the only team to limit the Mizzou offense.  Arkansas appears to be attempting Defense #1...something that worked for Illinois somewhat (but not enough).  That's fine.  All I can say is, godspeed and I hope you have more of a pass rush than you've shown this year.  Edge: Mizzou.

Mizzou RBs vs Arkansas LBs: Hog LBs had an interesting stat line this year, making a high % of successful plays, but not making too many plays overall.  Freddie Fairchild's and Weston Dacus' stats are pretty much interchangeable, and they're both relatively strong, physical guys.  They won't have much of a role in this game, though, because I have the feeling Mizzou won't be running much if Arkansas insists on playing a straight-forward, physical man-to-man all game.  As it is, we'll play it safe here--Edge: Push.

Mizzou WRs/TEs vs Arkansas DBs: Matt Hewitt and Matterial Richardson make for a strong, physical safety duo.  But I've picked Mizzou's WRs/TEs every game this season, and for all intents and purposes I've gone 12-for-13 in that prediction.  I'll take my chances.  Edge: Mizzou.

Mizzou OL vs Arkansas DL: My initial thought is that the OL would be the easiest unit to lose its rhythm with a long layoff, and that DLs would be able to attack relatively successfully due to that.  However, teams are putting up ridiculous amounts of points in just about every bowl, so that's obviously erroneous.  Judging by Arkansas' sack rates, they aren't too proficient in getting to opponents' QBs.  To say the least, that's a problem.  Edge: Mizzou.

Arkansas QB vs Mizzou Defense: As I mentioned Thursday, Arkansas has two great tailbacks, a prolific fullback, and an outstanding offensive line.  But they only managed a 46.4% success rate on the season, and strong SEC D's can only be blamed for so much of that.  This is an inconsistent offense, and the only main reasons I can come up with for that are a) iffy playcalling, and b) iffy QB'ing.  Casey Dick's pass efficiency numbers are good, but that hasn't translated to reliability.  Mizzou's run defense has been good enough that, even with McFadden/Jones/Hillis in the backfield, Dick will have to make some plays to sustain drives.  Can he do that?  Edge: Mizzou.

Arkansas RBs vs Mizzou LBs: I love Sean Weatherspoon and Brock Christopher to death, but...Edge: Arkansas.

Arkansas WRs/TEs vs Mizzou DBs: I have the feeling this game will come down to two things--1) 3rd-down passes to Peyton Hillis, and 2) a couple long bombs to Marcus Monk.  If Mizzou stops those two things, Arkansas won't be able to keep up on the scoreboard.  After seeing how they handled backfield-reception-machine Marlon Lucky earlier this season, I'm confident in Mizzou's handling of Hillis.  But after the deepballs in the KU and OU games, the bombs to Monk scare me.  Edge: Push.

Arkansas OL vs Mizzou DL: Mizzou's D-line improved throughout the season, and that was great to see.  However, going by my two line metrics--line yards and sack rates--the Hog O-line gets the nod.  Edge: Arkansas.

Special Teams: Jeremy Maclin and the return tandem of Felix Jones/Darren McFadden cancel each other out on kick returns, while Maclin has a clear edge over the Hogs on punt returns.  As for the kicking game...well...Arkansas' kicker misses FG's.  Mizzou's does not.  Edge: Mizzou.

Coaching: I know two things about interim coach Reggie Herring's gameplan for the Cotton Bowl: 1) they plan to be super-aggressive against Mizzou's spread, and 2) they plan to "open things up" on offense.  I'm unimpressed with either of those tactics.  Edge: Mizzou.

Karma: So this one’s basically "Mizzou versus the Bowl Screwjob Hangover".  I was worried about this when the bowl selections were first announced, but judging by the quotes from (and looks on the faces of) Mizzou players, I think they’re happy to be in Dallas, and while you never know who’s going to execute well (and who isn’t) after 4-6 weeks of inactivity, I think Mizzou has passed this test.  They’re playing for a Top 5 ranking, while Arkansas is playing for a stand-in coach who probably won’t be living in Fayetteville next season.  

That, and any chance of a hangover was eliminated with the Hogs' ridiculous "they forget we're in the SEC" nonsense earlier this week.  They'll be ready.Edge: Mizzou.

Summary:  That's a bit of an unexpected 7-2-2 advantage for Mizzou.  I expected closer, but I guess I should never underestimate my homerific tendencies.  I'm just not nearly as scared of Arkansas as I should be, I'll admit that.  But honestly...I still think that if we stop Hillis and Felix Jones, McFadden will be exhausted by Q3, and Mizzou will take this game pretty easily.  Because I just saw the Flaming Lips and am in an optimistic mood, I say Mizzou 38-23.

and not actually at the game?

This early kick-off stinks but let's get a win for the conference over a very good SEC team.

TOUCHDOWN TIGERS

i have and will continue to root for the big 12 and against the big ten. i was pissed about the alamo bowl and excited about the insight bowl no one got to see.

they couldn't have had everyone covered that whole time.

come on D, don't let d-mac do that.

anyone else notice we got the "givin' 'em the business" ref?

I'm surprised how low scoring the first half has been to this point. It definately is an advantage for Missouri that they are more balanced on offense.

the D is shutting down d-mac, their hearlded man to man coverage the bound to stand by isn't working, and they have forgotten we have a pretty damn good running back they look like they haven't prepared for.

back in the live thread game.

This has been great fun so far, texting my friends from Arkansas.

Tony Temple is freaking HUGE today. He's just slamming them back.

I laughed out loud when I read they weren't going to adjust their defense and just try to outclass us by "being SEC".

Let's keep it up, boys!

Keep it going in the second!

I love our gameplan thus far. Temple, rucker, alexander. We just need one big one to Maclin to break this open.

Defense is doing a great job, the line is starting to get to Dick, which is what we need. He's the weak point in their offense.

he's got a fumble.

fumble.

"Sigh."

Also, Chase is going to  have a bizarre line. pass attempts, completions, rushes, yards, 1 INT, 1 Fumble forced. Bizarre.

Defense needs to force them to three and out, end it here.

If he caught that one that was right in his chest, he was gone.

I hope he wins the appeal, but if he doesn't, great send off for him.

I can't say enough about our line.

We just totally outclassed Arkansas today.

Great way to end a great season!