Rock M Roundtable!

Apparently the Roundtable, despite Ridiculous Matt's best efforts, is dead when Mizzou loses.  One more reason to hope for a win on Saturday.

1 - Instead of kicking a FG on the opening drive of MU-OSU, Gary Pinkel elects to go for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1.  Does it change the outcome of the game?  And if the answer is no, does the outcome change if I don't post this?

2 - KU hasn't looked amazing in the first two games of Big 12 play, but they're 2-0, which is what counts.  How much of a scare can they put in OU this weekend?

3 - Tell me why MU will beat Texas this weekend.

4 - Big 12 Picks!

* Nebraska at Iowa State
* Baylor at Oklahoma State
* Kansas State at Colorado
* Texas Tech at Texas A&M
* Kansas at Oklahoma
* Missouri at Texas

5 - Taking Columbia out of the picture, Austin is by far my #1 favorite Big 12 city.  Rank the ones you've been to.  And yes, I just ended a sentence with a preposition.

The Beef: 1 - I don’t know that it honestly changes too much. I don’t think Okie State was going to change what they did on defense based on the 7 vs. 3 points there. The only thing I can see having changed is perhaps the final drive as we would have needed only a field goal vs. TD…and that might have led to us trying to run the ball more to run clock and seal the game with the final kick. Who knows….I don’t have the issue perhaps a few/some/many of our fans CURRENTLY have with the call. At the time, yes…I thought it to be a bit strange, but I also thought you want to make sure you get something on your first drive and you don’t believe that it was going to be one of only two scoring drives in the half.

2 - At OU? I don’t think so…I think OU comes out with their hair on fire after the loss to UT. I think kU likely can do some things against OU in the passing game, but I want to see what OU’s D-line does against the kU O-line. Reesing has that wonderfully annoying knack of making something out of nothing, but I think he is going to be looking up a LOT in this game after being (at least) knocked down and how that takes its toll later in the game will be interesting.

3 - Because they can score more points? I don’t know….I only saw OU drive right down the field to start the game last weekend before heading to Lot Brand X…listening to the game was fine, but I am a visual learner, so I really do not know. I realize UT is still giving up passing yards…if Chase can clear the cobwebs and realize he does not need to make every single play this week we have a shot.

4 - Nebraska at Iowa State – I’ll say ISU is about spent after their thumping last week and NU is feeling better about life. NU takes it by a few scores

Baylor at Oklahoma State – With UT on the horizon, if this game was at Baylor I would think more about it. It’s not…so I won’t.

Kansas State at Colorado – Oy…um…I guess CU has to win at some point

Texas Tech at Texas A&M – Tech by a bunch

Kansas at Oklahoma – OU by less than Tech, but still a decent amount

Missouri at Texas – UT by less than a score.

5 - Never been to any of the Texas schools…not spent a TON of time in any of the other cities since usually I am just…well…in and out. I will say Boulder is best, followed by Norman (enjoyed some time there at a conference), Lincoln, Stillwater, Lawrence, Ames and Manhattan.

rptgwb: 1. The only way either of those instances truly change anything is if somehow it improved the play of the offensive line. I continue to place the large majority of the blame on that unit. But, that was monumentally stupid to tempt the gods, The Boy, especially when we were due anyway.

2. Little to none. In addition to being a much better football team, Oklahoma is going to be pissed off. Not a good combination for KU.

3. To answer the question (and I'll be pissed if any Texas fans copy and paste everything after this and take it out of context), MU will beat Texas because Chase Daniel will not have two horrid games in a row and because we found out last year that Missouri operated best as the hunters rather than the hunted. Thanks to Kansas' miracle run in 2007, Mizzou played every game after the loss in Norman with no margin for error and with its back against the wall. They responded last year, and its very possible that they could do the same this year. This team needs a collective chip on its shoulder, and they may have found it a week early.

4.Picks:

Iowa State over Nebraska by 1
Oklahoma State over Baylor by 20
Colorado over Kansas State by 7
Texas Tech over Texas A&M by 27
Oklahoma over Kansas by 17
Texas over Missouri by 4

5. My travels have been limited (as is my knowledge of the bar scenes), so here we go:

1. Columbia (screw you, The Boy, I'm putting it in the picture)
2. Austin
3. College Station
4. Manhattan
5. Norman
Unknown - Stillwater, Ames, Lincoln, Boulder, Lawrence
11. Waco
124,897. Lubbock

ZouDave: 1 - I think that it had an affect on the outcome of the game, but not as simply as just because we scored 4 less points. I think it helped set the tone that for whatever reason we weren't playing with the same attitude and swagger that had gotten us to the position we were in going into Saturday's game. With this offense, with these players, at home, a yard away, with the crowd jacked up.....it seemed exactly the opposite of what this team was about to back away from the challenge of getting that final yard. I think it gave OSU confidence to stop us from getting an opening TD, I think it then put pressure on our offense that didn't need to be there and it began the ball rolling of them pressing, which it felt like they were doing all night, and it just all snowballed from there. Those extra 4 points would have been nice so we'd have only needed a FG to win at the end of the game, but I think just simply going for those 7 points might have sent a better message anyway. And I also firmly believe we would have gotten in.

2 - Less than what we did in Norman a year ago. OU, despite losing to Texas, is still one of the best teams in the country this year, and they're at home, and now they're pissed off. kansas has been slow starters this year but then adjust well and turn it on and when they're better than their opponent (which they have been for most of their games) they impose their will. If they start slow against OU, there's not going to be a comeback. They may not get beaten by 40, but I don't think this game will ever be in question.

3 - Well there's certainly no reason we can't. Again, despite us losing to OSU, we're still one of the best teams in the nation. We have a strong passing attack while Texas has a shaky secondary. Our defense has lapses but still is overall playing well enough for us to win games. The UT crowd won't be as hostile an environment as others because of how far away the fans are from the field. And we're going to be focused because this team just lost for only the 3rd time in their last 20 games. I have a feeling they don't like losing. It's certainly not going to be easy, but there's nothing at all that says we are worse than Texas.

4 - Nebraska 27, Iowa State 21
Oklahoma State 58, Baylor 14
KSU 24, Colorado 21
Texas Tech 48, A&M 24
Oklahoma 45, kansas 24
Texas 44, Missouri 38

5 - The only other places I've seen a Big XII game away from Columbia are lawrence and Kansas City. KC doesn't really count, and I'd rather be dead than in lawrence.

Michael Atchison: 1 - Does it change the outcome? I don’t know. If you do the math, it does (an extra four points there, plus they kick rather than fail on the two-point try in the fourth quarter), but once you change one play, every play that follows is changed, too. I think it was a mistake not to go for it (I’m not just saying it now; I said it then). It just went against the nature of this team. Their identity has been to give no quarter, to take the opponent’s heart from the first drive, and they let up by kicking.

More than anything, I blame the "Could any team beat Mizzou on a neutral field?" question from last week’s roundtable. Don’t you guys know about hubris? Anybody here read Homer in college? And I don’t mean Simpson.

2 - I would imagine that OU is going to play angry, which doesn’t bode well for Kansas. But we now know how this goes. How much of a scare CAN they put in them? They can beat them (see, e.g., Colorado, 2007). But I’d say the odds are pretty long.

3 - Chase Daniel wears number 10 and Texas has a Red River hangover.

4 - Huskers by 3 over ISU. Pokes by 17 over Baylor. Buffs by 9 over KSU. Tech by 21 over A&M OU by 24 over Kansas

Mizzou/Texas: I hate picking games like this, because he head and my heart are at odds. My heart says Mizzou wins on a Wolfert field goal late.

5 - I’ve been most of the cities in the north, but I don’t think I’ve been to any in the south (I know, a travesty; I have tentative future plans to do South by Southwest in Austin to atone for my sins). Boulder wins the north.

Doug: 1 - Well, let's say you go for it on 4th and 1 and don't make it.  Then one play-action pass out of the end zone and the Cowboys are standing at the 50 or possibly in the opposite end zone up 7 to 0.  I would say that changes the outcome of the game... because it would be a larger margin of victory for the Cowboys.

2 - I was thinking about this, looking at the 2007 season results... and yeah, KU was absolutely blowing teams out in the non-conference  and Baylor, but other than those games, and perhaps Iowa State, what other victory did Kansas look really impressive winning in 2007?  Hell, even against Nebraska, they allowed a second-string quarterback to keep the Huskers close for the first half.  The most important thing is the 2-0 and that's what Kansas has.  In terms of Oklahoma on Saturday... well, KU is going to need some breaks.  If Sam Bradford decides to thrown a couple interceptions and the Sooners fumble it a couple of times, that could be enough.  Also, against Texas, the Sooner defense looked very different once Ryan Reynolds left the game with a knee injury.  I've not heard anything about him being back for Saturday, but that could be another opportunity for the Jayhawks.

3 - You would think it might have something to do with Texas being satisfied with winning against OU, but under Mac Brown, Texas is undefeated in the week after the Oklahoma game, win or lose.  There's a chance for Missouri if, like Seth said, Daniel doesn't decide to do everything himself, to come away with a win.

4 - ISU - It entirely depends on which Cyclone team shows up, but since it's in Ames, it'll be the one that put the fear of God in KU
OSU - I imagine the Cowboys will get back to their normal point production this week
CU - The Josh Freeman roller-coaster continues... seriously, USA Today... he was the best player in the country last weekend?
TT - There'll be cheer practice after the game
OU - I'm not stupid... but I think it'll be close
UT - And it'll be close

5 - I haven't been to that many but rankings wise: Lawrence, Columbia, Lincoln and Manhattan (there's a downer of a town for you).

The Boy: 1 - I maintain that I had every right to look ahead toward Texas last week, as a) I was not suiting up to play that night, and b) I'm going to be all sorts of pissed if the Gods of Sports Fate have already turned back against Mizzou.  I say we're due another 5 years of good bounces and results to make up for the crap that happened in the first 28 years of my lifetime.

As for the 4th-and-goal question, I'm not at ALL sure we'd have converted it, but there are worse things in the world than giving your opponent the ball at their own 1.  For one thing, maybe the lights are hitting a little differently that deep in OSU territory, and when Dez Bryant fumbles on the second play of the game (and yes, it was a clear fumble, not an incomplete pass), maybe the ref actually sees clearly and make the right call.  Failing on 4th-and-goal would have taking the edge off of the offense's swagger a bit...but probably not anymore than settling for the FG did.

2 - OU has a gaping hole the size of Mark Mangino at middle linebacker right now, and KU could have some success with the dump-offs like Texas did.  However...this is at Owen Field.  That's the loudest stadium I've ever attended.  And I'm still not convinced KU has a viable running game. KU can play good, mistake-free football, and they could stay in the game for a while, but...no.  OU pulls away quickly and violently at some point in Q2 or Q3.

3 - There are certainly plenty of things in Mizzou's favor right now: Red River hangover, Chase finally getting his chance against Texas, the fact that Mizzou's actually played better on the road than at home in the last year or so (look it up), the fact that OU did still manage 35 points and almost 400 passing yards against UT's young secondary last week, plus the fact that Mizzou found some pretty good adjustments against OSU once it was clear that the running game just wasn't going to take off.  The main wildcard here is simply that we don't know how this team will respond to an unexpected loss--they haven't had to do it since November '06, and while they responded well there (coming back from the ISU debacle by decapitating KU), that was a while ago.  If Mizzou brings their A-game to Austin, I think this game is a tossup.  But it will, without a doubt, take their A-game.

4 - NU-ISU: I'm flip-flopping on this one.  I think NU's clearly better, and it sounds like they further established something of a grind-it-out identity against Tech last week.  However, ISU is salty (SALTY!) at home (if not so much on the road).  We'll go with Iowa State 24, Nebraska 20.

BU-OSU: Against ISU last week, Baylor subbed in their backup QB...because they were winning in a blowout!  Baylor!  Winning a conference game!  In blowout fashion!  However, while I do think OSU could be a bit in hangover mode this week, the 'Pokes are still clearly better.  OSU 45, Baylor 24.

KSU-CU: Seriously...there should be some sort of "They were playing ATM" penalty attached to player-of-the-week awards.  But every time Freeman has a good game, folks starting thinking "Here he comes!  The real Josh Freeman is about to emerge!"  In actuality, the real Josh Freeman emerged two years ago.  Against bad defenses, he looks great.  With a lead, he plays poised and in control.  But if he has to make a play against a good defense, bad stuff starts happening really quickly.  In Boulder, against a decent-not-great CU defense, he could have some success.  But at the same time, if ATM managed 30 against CU, CU could manage 40-45 with no problem.  We'll say CU 35, KSU 28.

TT-ATM: If Josh Freeman went 21-for-26 for 234 yards against ATM, what can Graham Harrell do?  42-for-52 for 468?  Tech 41, ATM 17.

KU-OU: As I said, it's a game for a while...then suddenly it isn't.  OU 42, KU 20.

MU-UT: We'll see what my BTBS projections come up with tomorrow, but for Roundtable purposes, I'm reverting to my old Tigerboard Radio form--if Mizzou wins, I want to say I predicted it.  Therefore...MU 34, Texas 31.

5 - Columbia would obviously be #1 to me, and I haven't been to College Station, so...based on personal experience only...

1. Austin
2. Boulder
3. Stillwater
4. Norman
5. Lincoln
6. Lawrence
7. Ames
8. Lubbock
9. Manhattan
10. Waco

Ridiculous Matt: 1. Absolutely. This is the one that pissed me off more than anything. More than not keeping Washington to protect the weakside end (which is where all the pressure started), more than abandoning the run game, more than OSU playing lightyears beyond its talent. We took the opening drive, marched to the one yard line, and with the best offense in the country with 4th and goal from the 1, we kick a field goal? The same team that ran fake against Nevada? We kick? Did someone come to the game early and just collect the collective nuts of this team? Yeah, if we'd failed to convert (which on that drive we were doing pretty well at), they would have had the ball and "one big play, blah blah blah" it's still 99 yards. And it could have just as easily ended with Robinson getting to know what Reesing felt like at the end of last season with a safety. And if that happens? Their spirit is crushed, our defense is pumped, and we have energy. Instead, it set the tone of the game with an "Eh, I guess we'll kick the field goal. Ho-hum." IT sucked the life out of the crowd, the game, and that team. FAIL.

2. None. OU will be righeously pissed off after last week. Stoops is too good of a coach to not have this team ready to play back to back weeks. They're going to want to punish someone. And the Cupcake Express is no. 1 on the list. Sooners roll.

3. Texas played the best game I've seen them play all year. The coaching staff coached the best game they've coached all year. Jordan Shipley was a demon. Who is Jordan Shipley? Exactly. They played one hell of a game. But before our nightmarish shitting of the bed, I was watching that game going "our receivers are going to carve this secondary up." If our O-Line plays like it has for the five weeks prior and not the monumental assgrab last week, Chase is going to have targets deep. Those freshman safeties think that they're world beaters right now.

4. ISU 24 NU 21: The pain continues. I continue to love it.
OSU 35 Baylor 24: Am I the only one rooting for OSU from here on out so that we can play them again in the Big 12 title game? Because I REALLY want to play them again.
KState 31 Colorado 20: Buffaloes are terrible. Tuurrrible.
Texas Tech 40 aTm 13: Ouch.
OU 41 KU 23: No more cupcakes for you, bitches.
Texas 48 MU 45: Mack Brown is 10-0 after the Shootout. Our team has some doubts about itself. Will Muschamp is a lunatic. I'm not sure if this team really gets what happened last week. We took it a little too much in stride. And Texas' front four is enough to make the slight difference. It hurts.

5.
Austin: Seeing as how I live here, and have called it "Eden With Beer," I can't really claim anywhere else to be better.
Boulder: Hippies and beer!
Lawrence: Great music scene.
College Station: It's like a petting zoo for Texans. With Beer.
Norman: Actually some pretty good food, drink, and music there.
Stillwater: I had a really good club sandwich there once.
Waco: Treff's Bar is a great place and the cougars are can't miss entertainment.
Manhattan: If only because we share a deep hatred of all things from Lawrence.
Ames: It's not Lubbock.
Lubbock: It's not Lincoln.
Lincoln: It's Lincoln.

The Boy: "We took it a little too much in stride."

One response I have to this is...you should have seen the Mizzou players walking off the field after the game. One thing they were not doing was taking the game in stride.

Ridiculous Matt: That's fair, I wasn't there. I was at the game thread, which, if you all had been to, we would have won. A full-power open thread is undefeated this year, featuring a demolishing of Nebraska. I'm just sayin'.

But seriously, I'm sure they were dejected. But I keep hearing quotes I don't like this week. Like, "Well, I think we've fixed it."  and "We handled it, and moved on." I'm not saying they should be listening to Cure albums or reading Joyce, but a little bit of "This is not acceptable, we're going to improve" would be nice. Maybe I just haven't heard enough.

Ridiculous Matt: I do like that we haven't come out with any foolish Marlon Lucky-esque "Texas better watch out" stuff. We're at least coming in deeper under the radar than we would have had we won. Of course, this also wouldn't be a close-to-must-win game for our BCS hopes, either.

The Boy: I think the post-game quotes (Pinkel: "This sucks."  Daniel: "Put it all on me."  Et cetera.) were what you would want to hear, and they talked about how hard it was to come to the Sunday "only after a loss" practice.  Since then, though, I haven't paid as much attention to what they're saying...though I agree that they should certainly not start playing The Cure in the locker room.

(15 minutes later)

The Boy: Meanwhile...this place:

Ridiculous Matt: Anybody else concerned about the four wide package that Texas unveiled last weekend, essentially saying "screw it, who needs a tight end?" I don't feel good about our secondary in that situation (particularly the deep right side which is a deep gashing wound like Paris Hilton's bajingo).

(2 hours later)

ZouDave:

(Another 2 hours later)

Ridiculous Matt: I get more and more of a feeling as this week goes on that this could be the game that makes everyone remember, "HOLY SHIT, JEREMY MACLIN IS SOME SORT OF DEMON SENT TO THIS REALM TO DESTROY US"

I can see Texas battling with us to a standstill on both sides of the ball and it coming down to Jeremy Maclin>The Speed of Light.

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