The Call, The List, and The Wall We Are Up Against
by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 17, 2008 1:49 PM CDT
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PrintLiving in Austin, this week has been a nightmare. I can't get away from the game. Everywhere I turn is a celebration of the Horns' rightful #1 ranking and their impressive win over OU. Everywhere else I turn is a discussion of "If OSU beat Mizzou, what's TEXAS going to do to them?" It's been horrible being unable to sling any swagger, to have to just say "Yeah, I don't know." I'm angry at that.
I started off fearing we'd get killed. Then I felt a little better. Then I thought about Shipley and Cosby. And I felt a little worse. Then I felt a little better. Then I thought about the 4 wide set. Then I felt a little worse. Then I felt a little better. Then I thought about Texas' front four and the possibility of our line playing the asshat game again and I felt a little worse. Today I'm feeling a little better. I'm not confident of a victory, but I cannot, I will not believe that this quarterback, this unit, this team will have back to back performances of that depressing magnitude of failure. And if we play to our ability, we can hang with anyone. ANYONE.
And with that, here is the email I sent to the local radio station regarding this weekend's game.
Okay. I had planned on laying out a complicated and in depth description of why Missouri was going to devastate DKR this weekend. Then the Mike Gundy Signature Win (vomit) happened, and my faith has been shaken. However, after going back and forth, back and forth, I'm back to feeling better about this weekend. Here are 10 reasons why Missouri could beat Texas.
1. There is no possible way that an offensive line that was flawless for the first five games plays as badly as it did last week. The stunts and twists that OSU employed are unlikely to be used by Texas' scheme, and the technique issues will have been worked on by the Missouri staff.
2. Missouri's run defense has been spectacular. Take away the one huge run last week in the second half (part of our comedy of errors), and the run defense has been superb. Shutting down the running game makes it harder for Texas to control the clock, which is important.
3. Our middle linebacker likely (hopefully, knock on wood) will not go down, allowing Texas to sling it over the middle. Our linebackers are the strongest part of our defense, they are the playmakers, and they could be difference makers.
4. That young Texas secondary is going to get tested. Missouri hasn't broken out the long ball this weekend. I think this is the weekend they do. Those young safeties are going to be in a foot race with Denario Alexander and Jeremy Maclin. I like our odds.
5. Derrick Washington will be involved. Even if Texas focuses on shutting him down, that likely means that Chase Coffman is open. If Texas tries to hard to jumpe the end to get to Daniel, Washington's going to gouge them for 5 yards at a time.
6. Special teams. You want Shipley? That's cool. I'll take Maclin. Maclin hasn't had a real "Oh My God, Jeremy Maclin" game yet. I can see Saturday night being his reminder of why he was considered a Heisman candidate coming in.
7. What about our front line? Stryker Sulak, Baston, and Chavis are not exactly pushovers. If Texas comes in thinking our D-line won't be a problem, they've got another thing coming. And we know what happens when Colt gets seriously hit (like Oklahoma was unable to do).
8. It is against the laws of nature for the Texas coaching staff to cohesively coach that well in back to back weeks.
9. Chase Coffman can match up with anyone in the country. He's got great hands and he pushes for extra yardage. That man-cover 4 has holes, and one of them is right where a tight end's routes go.
10. Chase Daniel has everyone in the country doubting him again. When people do that, in Texas, with his back against the wall? That's what makes scoreboards go BOOM.
Hope it's a good clean game tomorrow with no injuries and it lives up to it's hype. (Okay, that's a lie, I hope it's a Missouri blowout.)
-Matt
**********
The guantlet's down, fellas. This is huge. A loss here puts us permanently out of the National Championship race, and puts into question the Big 12 North title and makes a BCS spot a dicey proposition. It cements Daniel as a failure, and us as a one-hit wonder. We need this game. We NEED this game. This team has walked into tons of situations where they've been doubted and responded with brutal and lethal efficiency. That's the Mizzou we need tomorrow night.
Let's do this.
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Good stuff
A few points:
1. You have to consider the competition for the O-line. No line you have faced, or will face for the remainder of the year in all likelihood, will be a match for ours. And in actuality, I expect the stunts and twists by our line. Something like this should be expected when facing a team like Mizzou who has such wide splits. Even if Missouri’s O-line rebounds, they’re still going to have their hands full.
2. We get Fozzy Whittaker back this week, and Ogbonnaya and Cody Johnson will also carry the load. Whittaker remains a mystery, but Ogbonnaya has been running patiently well and Johnson is a beast in short yardage situations.
3. To be fair, we still had success passing over the middle when Ryan Reynolds was in. It was already an OU weakness. Obviously, when he went down, that weakness became a big hole. Perhaps Missouri doesn’t have that same weakness, so if so, Davis will attack elsewhere.
4. Indeed our secondary will… but they were last week as well. This matchup obviously favors the Tigers, but our secondary is talented and they’re improving by the quarter.
5. If Mizzou’s run defense is good, Texas’ is better. Washington still may have opportunities because the passing game is so good, but he’s going to have little room to work with.
6. I’ll take our FG kicker and punter over yours, but yes, Maclin is very explosive.
7. Colt is bigger and stronger this year, and our line is much improved. Colt got sacked four times against OU, so it’s not like he just camped. The D-line of Missouri must be careful not to get too eager and allow Colt to run around and make plays.
8. Well, we DO have a national title. Our coaches aren’t incompetent, and we have Will Muschamp.
9. Coffman is good, but so is Gresham. Gresham got his last Saturday, but it’s not like we haven’t seen a challenging tight end yet.
10. Actually, plenty of people are picking Missouri for their “upset special,” and one of their main reasons is the fact that they have confidence in Daniel. So it’s far from a “everyone doubts Chase” scenario. I’m pretty sure everyone knows he’s a great QB who simply had a few unfortunate throws last game. And I disagree that a loss here makes Daniel a failure. That’s one heck of a career he’s had at Missouri, and that’s not going to go down the drain because he loses on the road to the Texas Longhorns.
Are you going to the game? If so, I’ll see you there in my burnt orange.
by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 17, 2008 2:07 PM CDT reply actions
rebuttal
1. They are unquestionably the best d-line we’ll have faced. But the odds of two o-lines having down weeks? Chase is going to get hit. We’ll see how he responds.
2. Whittaker is a mystery. He’s another Texas hype player that everyone gets excited about a la Henry Melton. Ogbonnaya ran well last week, and it’s possible he could do damage on dump-offs, especially if the refs allow Colt to throw while he’s over the line again.
3. It’s not a weakness. Brock Christopher, Sean Weatherspoon. It’s the strongest part of our defense, and it’s packed with playmakers.
4. Improving ain’t good enough if Chase Daniel doesn’t have another of the worst games of his career like he did last week.
5. Texas’ is better. It’s sickening how good they are. The ONLY way Washington gets going is if Texas concentrates too much on trying to obliterate Colt McCoy. Which, by the way, was a Muschamp weakness at Auburn. That’s why Arkansas had such success against them. He was too busy trying to destroy the quarterback and get into the backfield. That said, I would be surprised to see Washington break 100 yards.
6. … Yeah, so Wolftert had a shaky start to this season, but he’s ridiculously good. Our punter may not be as good, but that’s mostly from lack of use. Also, the Buffalo game was the first kickoff return for a touchdown Missouri has allowed in a loooong time.
7. Colt still hasn’t proved he can sustain a full year of getting hit. He’s bigger, but that’s like saying Zach Randolph has lost weight. He’s still a fatass. Colt’s going to run around and make plays. Rollouts work ridiculously well against us. It’s going to be up to the D-Line to close fast.
8. Hey, I love the Texas coaching staff. I’ve lived here through people calling for Mack’s head in 2004, and the questions about him not being able to build a contender without Vince Young. I think Greg Davis does a good job. I’m just saying Texas has a history of one unit doing better than the other, not like last week, where every single coach got the absolute most out of their unit. I’m saying they’re human, that’s all.
9. Gresham is not anywhere close to Coffman’s league. Seriously. You’ll understand after tomorrow (hopefully). Chase Coffman is arguably the best pro prospect on the Tigers. He doesn’t get as much of the attention but he is sickeningly good.
10. I hear people going both ways. I’m sticking with Texas out of fear of the hubris our entire fanbase showed in the last few weeks.
I’m not. I don’t think I could take it. I need to be in the comfort of my own home so I can break things (also, we’re saving up for a move). Good luck to you on Saturday.
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by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 17, 2008 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
hmmm
4. Sam Bradford: 28/39 5 TD. Seriously, FIVE TD? Oh, and Chase Daniel > Sam Bradford
6. Are you serious about your FG kicker? Jeff Wolfert career: 148/148 PAT, 47/57 FG (long 55) Hunter Lawrence career 33/33 PAT, 7/7 FG (long 46)
8. Two words: Vince Young
9. Coffman > Gresham
"I have CDO. It's like OCD, but the letters are in alphabetical order. Like they should be."
Re
“4. Sam Bradford: 28/39 5 TD. Seriously, FIVE TD? Oh, and Chase Daniel > Sam Bradford”
Don’t necessarily agree. Bradford is bigger, stronger, and has a stronger arm. Even if we do grant that Daniel is currently the better QB, it’s not by leaps and bounds.
“6. Are you serious about your FG kicker? Jeff Wolfert career: 148/148 PAT, 47/57 FG (long 55) Hunter Lawrence career 33/33 PAT, 7/7 FG (long 46)”
He hasn’t missed. Wolfert missed a few in the beginning, though this game probably won’t go down to kicking anyway.
“8. Two words: Vince Young”
And Michael Huff, Rodrique Wright, Limas Sweed, Jamaal Charles, Jonathon Scott, David Thomas, Kasay Studdard, Michael Griffin, Aaron Ross, etc… it takes good coaching to bring that talent together and become a cohesive team.
“9. Coffman > Gresham”
Perhaps so, but my point to bring Gresham up was to point out that we have seen an elite tight end before, so it’s not like it’s totally new.
by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 17, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
This is what bugs me about Texas fans
when they get rolling, the opinion is that they have no weaknesses and they’re simply unstoppable. This team was one legit interception not overturned and one good tackle on Jordan Shipley’s return away from dropping that game. They played terrific, but they’re not as unbeatable as Horns fans have convinced themselves. They’re probably still a step above Missouri, but there are weaknesses.
4. Bradford may be as good by the end of his career. But when Daniel is locked in, he throws the most catchable ball in the conference, and he plays with poise and drive.
6. I hope it comes down to field goals, because I’m just going to tell you, we’ve got the advantage there. Hunter hasn’t really been tested.
8. LIke I said, they’ve got a terrific staff. But historically, they’re hit or miss, outside of the Vince Young year. I find it unlikely that a team that was supposed to win 9 to 10 games this year is not going to have a single game where the coaches don’t have a rough day, especially after the best coaching effort, possibly in Mack’s tenure.
9. Just because you’ve seen something, it doesn’t mean it won’t be a factor. So much attention is on Chase and Maclin, what happens if the shorter passes to Chase just eat up yardage?
I know, I know, Texas will find an answer, they always do. Except for every other season but this one and 2005.
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by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 17, 2008 3:04 PM CDT reply actions
??
When did I say we had no weaknesses? I admitted our secondary is young and vulnerable, and I expect that Missouri will be a big challenge. I’m merely doing what you’re doing, which is to look at Missouri’s strength and speculate how and why Texas can handle them. We can also look at our weaknesses and discuss how we can minimize them. That is all part of this discussion. It has nothing to do with being blind to areas where we need to improve.
I will mention that the interception was NOT legit. Perhaps the rule needs to be changed, but the rule is that the player must maintain possession as he hits the ground. He didn’t. Even Stoops said that wasn’t a pick.
I’m not sure where you’re getting your impressions, but no Horns fan I know is fooled by our #1 ranking. We know it doesn’t mean much more than having a bullseye on your back at this point. I’m not exactly sure where that tone came from at all.
In any case, I was answering BigMOman, not trying to bludgeon you with points. He made a point that he felt that we can simply say Bradford > Daniel, which may be true, but it surely isn’t by a longshot. There are a lot of great QB’s in this conference. Furthermore, he thought he could refute my point by merely pointing to VY, which I disagreed with as well, so I was not answering you there either. As far as kickers, you’re right: Lawrence hasn’t been tested in a clutch situation yet. We’ll see.
And when did I say Coffman wouldn’t be a factor? I just said that we saw Gresham and he got his. Coffman will surely get his as well, particularly if we focus on other players. But we still were able to pull out a victory against OU, and I think we can beat Missouri as well even if Coffman puts up god numbers.
It’s all part of the discussion, man. Don’t get too defensive. You’re going to talk about how your team can overcome their deficiencies and our strengths to win, and I’m going to do the same. There’s nothing to get annoyed over.
by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 17, 2008 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions
Not trying to ruffle feathers
Just down here in Longhorn country, this game is giving me ulcers.
I think the biggest question for both teams is the ability of the front seven to get pressure and make plays, because the back four are huge question marks. Both quarterbacks are going to put up numbers, it just depends on who makes the key plays at key points.
I disagree on the interception, but if Mizzou was in the same situation, I’d feel the same way you do.
It seems like everyone’s kind of decided “Oh, we beat OU. Smooth sailing from here on out.” It’s like they’ve forgotten 2006 happened at all.
I think I’m just still pissed about Daniel’s performance last week. He’s been so brililant for two whole seasons, to see him play as poorly as he did which makes it look to the country like that’s who he is just kills me. He’s been brilliant and had a bad week at the worst time. Wolfert has missed a few in Big 12 play, which has absolutely boggled some of us. We’re kind of backed up against a wall.
It’ll be interesting to see who does the most damage. Everyone’s talking about Texas’ weapons, but I’d argue that no team has as many weapons as Missouri. The common conception is that the reason Missouri will lose is because Chase Daniel will make mistakes like he did last week. And then.. like he hasn’t done except for in Norman last year.
Again, didn’t mean to ruffle your feathers, wasn’t particularly talking to you there, should have specified. This game is just making me go crazy. Thanks for the respect and discussion.
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by Ridiculous Matt on Oct 17, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions
It's fine
I understand how you feel. I’m feeling the same excitement. Like I said below, I still consider Mizzou a top 5 team, so this game makes me nervous. I might actually feel better if Mizzou won last week, because I expect them to come out pretty hacked off and motivated now.
I don’t expect Chase to make the same mistakes, and few teams, if any, have as many offensive weapons as Mizzou. Granted, we beat OU who has a lot of weapons, but they still put up 35 points. It gives me a headache trying to figure out how we can slow down this offense.
You guys have a great site here, so I enjoy coming and reading the material. The fans and the team deserve the respect.
by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 17, 2008 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
This game is still a game of top 5 teams, no matter what the polls say. The reason there is no upset is because there is not a clear winner for this game. If Daniel had driven down the field and put the ball in the endzone, what would the line be +or -1? Just think about it, missouri hasn’t lost to a team outside of oklahoma since the 2005 sun bowl. =) good luck tomorrow
Agreed
I don’t care about that #11 ranking. Missouri is one of the top teams in the country in my eyes.
by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 17, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
no loss since 2005 sunbowl?
2006 sunbowl? and you lost 5 games that season. and you lost last week, to okie lite.
now, that being said, i was terrified of mizzou’s passing game until last week. every game i watched chase daniel was completing pass after pass after pass, everywhere and every time. now after last weekend, yes i’m feeling better. chase daniel has an off night, whether you want to attribute that to the pass pressure, the secondary, chase daniel just having a bad game.
stats wise.. he didn’t do all that bad outside of his interceptions. but when you throw the ball 52 times, texas tech style, you have to expect some poor plays.
some reasons i think texas wins : texas dline is better than okie st, ou’s oline is better than mizzou’s. i have a feeling texas is going to be in daniel’s face all day. he’s talented enough to still hit the short quick routes, but by the second half he’s going to be hurting.
texas has a semblance of a run game, whether that be cody johnson in short yardage situations which he’s be clutch it, or ogbannaya having a couple breakout games with some big plays. if whittaker is back and playing like he did at UTEP, it’s light’s out.
some reasons i think missouri gives us a fight : missouri brought the wood last week against dez bryant and company. i’m afraid by the second half shipley/cosby will be slowed a half step from the hits. i dont think their secondary will stop our passing, they’re just inconsistent.
missouri has some great receivers, and a great qb. if the qb is having an offnight… missouri’s air game is going to suffer. if a receiver is having an offnight.. daniel can just throw to the rest. texas doesn’t have that option. quan and shipley must be top notch.
all that being said, the biggest game changer… DKR. the horns play at home, they’re going to be playing infront of a loud, boisterous stadium.
by Displaced Longhorn on Oct 17, 2008 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions
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