I don't have many masochistic tendencies, so we're not going to spend a ton of time analyzing Saturday night's destruction. Instead we're going to take a (relatively) quick look at the BTBS 'box scores' for each of last Saturday's games...
Missouri |
Texas |
|
| % Close = 29.1% |
||
| 40.6% | Field Position % * |
59.4% |
| 65.0% | Leverage % ** |
81.1% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 60 | Plays | 74 |
| 25.99 | EqPts | 44.53 |
| 53.3% | Success Rate | 62.2% |
| 0.43 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.60 |
| 0.967 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 1.223 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 12 | Plays | 27 |
| 0.71 | EqPts | 15.67 |
| 16.7% | Success Rate | 66.7% |
| 0.06 | PPP | 0.58 |
| 0.226 | S&P | 1.247 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 5.31 | EqPts | 19.61 |
| 47.1% | Success Rate | 56.4% |
| 0.31 | PPP | 0.50 |
| 0.783 | S&P | 1.067 |
| 1.73 |
Line Yards/carry |
3.12 |
| PASSING | ||
| 20.68 | EqPts | 24.93 |
| 55.8% | Success Rate | 68.6% |
| 0.48 | PPP | 0.71 |
| 1.039 | S&P | 1.398 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 59.0% | Success Rate | 63.3% |
| 0.46 | PPP | 0.47 |
| 1.051 | S&P | 1.107 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 42.9% | Success Rate | 57.1% |
| 0.38 | PPP | 1.15 |
| 0.810 | S&P | 1.722 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 1 | Number | 0 |
| 0.90 | Points Lost | 0.00 |
| 4.25 | Points Given | 0.00 |
| 5.15 | Total T/O Pts | 0.00 |
| -5.15 | Turnover Pts Margin | +5.15 |
| 0.226 | Q1 S&P | 1.242 |
| 0.814 | Q2 S&P | 1.563 |
| 1.168 | Q3 S&P | 0.893 |
| 1.742 | Q4 S&P | 1.159 |
| 1.150 | 1st Down S&P | 1.190 |
| 0.768 | 2nd Down S&P | 1.103 |
| 0.891 | 3rd Down S&P | 1.577 |
- So what happens if you're, say, Carl Edwards, and you have a mishap on the track in Lap 1 of a race? Your car is able to keep going, but you end up laps behind. You try to drive well the rest of the race, but it just doesn't matter because your day ended in the first minute, and the next three hours are just a formality. This game is why my 'close game' designation was created. While the overall stats tend to say something, the 'close game' stats are what count. The overall stats say this was an offensive shootout, with Texas just having more success in the end. The 'close game' stats say this was never a game, not even for one second.
- This game was also why I do the "% close" number. Penn State ended up beating Michigan by a bigger margin than Texas did over Missouri. But PSU-Mich was 80.0% close (i.e. 80% of the plays took place while the game was within two possessions). UT-MU wasn't even 30% close.
- I'm not sure I've ever seen quarter-to-quarter splits as large as Mizzou's in this game. I mean, 0.226 to 0.814 to 1.168 to 1.742? To a nerd like me, that's impressive (even though it signifies nothing).
- Seriously, UT would have beaten anybody in the country by double digits Saturday night. That show (Q1 in particular) was unreal. A buddy of mine from Dallas went down to the game and said he was at least heartened by the fact that he got to watch a team play perfect for a half. Even if it wasn't Mizzou, being in the presence of greatness is still being in the presence of greatness.
On to the other games after the jump...
What else happened last Saturday?
Kansas |
Oklahoma |
|
| % Close = 85.2% |
||
| 37.3% | Field Position % * |
62.7% |
| 73.6% | Leverage % ** |
71.1% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 72 | Plays | 97 |
| 31.36 | EqPts | 44.31 |
| 48.6% | Success Rate | 49.5% |
| 0.44 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.46 |
| 0.922 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.952 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 58 | Plays | 86 |
| 25.30 | EqPts | 43.34 |
| 53.4% | Success Rate | 52.3% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.50 |
| 0.971 | S&P | 1.027 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 10.86 | EqPts | 15.07 |
| 60.0% | Success Rate | 43.2% |
| 0.43 | PPP | 0.34 |
| 1.034 | S&P | 0.774 |
| 3.74 | Line Yards/carry |
2.81 |
| PASSING | ||
| 20.51 | EqPts | 29.24 |
| 42.6% | Success Rate | 54.7% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.55 |
| 0.862 | S&P | 1.099 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 62.3% | Success Rate | 53.6% |
| 0.56 | PPP | 0.52 |
| 1.181 | S&P | 1.060 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 10.5% | Success Rate | 39.3% |
| 0.09 | PPP | 0.29 |
| 0.198 | S&P | 0.684 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 2 | Number | 0 |
| 6.49 | Points Lost | 0.00 |
| 1.92 | Points Given | 0.00 |
| 8.41 | Total T/O Pts | 0.00 |
| -8.41 | Turnover Pts Margin | +8.41 |
| 1.029 | Q1 S&P | 1.034 |
| 0.134 | Q2 S&P | 0.932 |
| 0.805 | Q3 S&P | 1.208 |
| 0.719 | Q4 S&P | 0.606 |
| 1.244 | 1st Down S&P | 1.205 |
| 0.617 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.739 |
| 0.513 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.648 |
- I think if Mizzou and Kansas played this Saturday, Kansas would win. There, I said it. But I'm confident that Mizzou will rediscover its mojo in the next month. Now, if we beat Colorado something like 17-16, that all changes.
- Kansas did a strong job of keeping the OU defense on its heels, doing quite well on Non-Passing Downs (particularly 1st downs), both running and throwing; but they had almost no success whatsoever in Passing Downs.
- OU's offense was by all means solid, but their prodigious output had as much to do with running 97 plays as anything else. They too were not tremendous on Passing Downs, but the game was decided by the fact that they still converted 39% of Passing Downs, to KU's 10%.
- 3.74 line yards per carry for Kansas? Really? The Kansas that couldn't run the ball? Against the OU defense that doesn't allow you to run the ball? Ryan Reynolds = OU's most valuable player. Luckily for them, they were still able to out-athlete KU.
Baylor |
Okla St
|
|
| % Close = 53.7% |
||
| 29.6% | Field Position % * |
70.4% |
| 55.2% | Leverage % ** |
80.8% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 58 | Plays | 78 |
| 11.15 | EqPts | 34.38 |
| 31.0% | Success Rate | 51.3% |
| 0.19 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.44 |
| 0.503 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.954 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 28 | Plays | 45 |
| 6.76 | EqPts | 22.13 |
| 25.0% | Success Rate | 60.0% |
| 0.24 | PPP | 0.49 |
| 0.491 | S&P | 1.092 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 3.79 | EqPts | 18.52 |
| 24.1% | Success Rate | 49.1% |
| 0.13 | PPP | 0.32 |
| 0.372 | S&P | 0.816 |
| 1.30 | Line Yards/carry |
2.98 |
| PASSING | ||
| 7.36 | EqPts | 15.87 |
| 37.9% | Success Rate | 57.1% |
| 0.25 | PPP | 0.76 |
| 0.633 | S&P | 1.327 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 34.4% | Success Rate | 58.7% |
| 0.17 | PPP | 0.43 |
| 0.518 | S&P | 1.019 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 26.9% | Success Rate | 20.0% |
| 0.22 | PPP | 0.48 |
| 0.484 | S&P | 0.678 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 1 | Number | 1 |
| 2.38 | Points Lost | 3.78 |
| 1.61 | Points Given | 1.58 |
| 3.99 | Total T/O Pts | 5.36 |
| -1.37 | Turnover Pts Margin | +1.37 |
| 0.648 | Q1 S&P | 0.882 |
| 0.089 | Q2 S&P | 1.231 |
| 0.624 | Q3 S&P | 0.769 |
| 0.495 | Q4 S&P | 0.761 |
| 0.297 | 1st Down S&P | 1.040 |
| 0.787 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.948 |
| 0.578 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.711 |
- Another fantastic defensive gameplan from the Cowboys. OSU loaded up against the run, neutralized Robert Griffin's legs, and continuously forced Baylor into Passing Downs. That's easier said than done. With five games remaining, this guy gets my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
- Seriously, a 55% leverage rate is about as bad as it gets. Well done, Tim Beckman.
- It appears that Baylor loaded up against the run as well, allowing Dez Bryant to go off.
Tech |
ATM |
|
| % Close = 98.6% |
||
| 61.1% | Field Position % * |
38.9% |
| 81.0% | Leverage % ** |
71.4% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 79 | Plays | 63 |
| 39.29 | EqPts | 18.43 |
| 63.3% | Success Rate | 44.4% |
| 0.50 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.29 |
| 1.130 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.737 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| same | Plays | 61 |
| same | EqPts | 18.00 |
| same | Success Rate | 44.3% |
| same | PPP | 0.30 |
| same | S&P | 0.738 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 10.74 | EqPts | 5.01 |
| 65.2% | Success Rate | 36.8% |
| 0.47 | PPP | 0.26 |
| 1.119 | S&P | 0.632 |
| 3.40 | Line Yards/carry |
2.23 |
| PASSING | ||
| 28.55 | EqPts | 13.42 |
| 62.5% | Success Rate | 47.7% |
| 0.51 | PPP | 0.31 |
| 1.135 | S&P | 0.782 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 65.6% | Success Rate | 46.7% |
| 0.48 | PPP | 0.29 |
| 1.140 | S&P | 0.754 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 53.3% | Success Rate | 38.9% |
| 0.56 | PPP | 0.30 |
| 1.091 | S&P | 0.693 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 3 | Number | 1 |
|
6.93 |
Points Lost | 0.00 |
| 7.08 | Points Given | 3.89 |
| 14.01 | Total T/O Pts | 3.89 |
| -10.12 | Turnover Pts Margin | +10.12 |
| 1.101 | Q1 S&P | 0.918 |
| 1.372 | Q2 S&P | 0.846 |
| 1.018 | Q3 S&P | 0.368 |
| 1.100 | Q4 S&P | 0.401 |
| 1.092 | 1st Down S&P | 0.707 |
| 0.986 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.801 |
| 1.554 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.694 |
- This was a 'close game' until the final two plays.
- Smoke, mirrors and turnovers kept ATM in this game. Even in the first half, when they were scoring in buckets, their S&P figures were only above average. Part of that has to do with good field position, part with the fact that they continuously struggled in the redzone.
- Consistency, thy name is the Texas Tech offense and its per-quarter stats.
- Ridiculousness, thy name is the Texas Tech offense on 3rd downs.
- Check out Tech's rushing stats. I've mentioned this many, many times now, but if Tech ran the ball for 19 straight plays, defenses would still be playing the pass on play #20. They have no excuse for ever having a rushing S&P under 1.000. It's like free money.
K-State |
Colorado |
|
| % Close = 100.0% |
||
| 41.5% | Field Position % * |
58.5% |
| 56.3% | Leverage % ** |
63.4% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 64 | Plays | 82 |
| 18.20 | EqPts | 18.85 |
| 35.9% | Success Rate | 36.6% |
| 0.28 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.23 |
| 0.644 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.596 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| same | Plays | same |
| same | EqPts | same |
| same | Success Rate | same |
| same | PPP | same |
| same | S&P | same |
| RUSHING | ||
| 6.95 | EqPts | 12.94 |
| 50.0% | Success Rate | 40.0% |
| 0.32 | PPP | 0.24 |
| 0.816 | S&P | 0.635 |
| 3.01 | Line Yards/carry |
2.79 |
| PASSING | ||
| 11.24 | EqPts | 5.90 |
| 28.6% | Success Rate | 29.6% |
| 0.27 | PPP | 0.22 |
| 0.553 | S&P | 0.515 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 52.8% | Success Rate | 42.3% |
| 0.39 | PPP | 0.26 |
| 0.921 | S&P | 0.684 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 14.3% | Success Rate | 26.7% |
| 0.14 | PPP | 0.18 |
| 0.287 | S&P | 0.443 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 2 | Number | 2 |
| 3.66 | Points Lost | 4.18 |
| 5.35 | Points Given | 3.10 |
| 9.01 | Total T/O Pts | 7.28 |
| -1.73 | Turnover Pts Margin | +1.73 |
| 0.646 | Q1 S&P | 0.544 |
| 0.270 | Q2 S&P | 0.872 |
| 1.017 | Q3 S&P | 0.460 |
| 0.713 | Q4 S&P | 0.487 |
| 0.982 | 1st Down S&P | 0.657 |
| 0.324 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.538 |
| 0.365 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.551 |
- As TB so eloquently put it, there was really no silver lining for KSU in this game. They held a bad offense in check, which is technically better than the alternative, but the fact that 14 points was enough to get CU the win is embarrassing. CU played well offensively for two series in Q2, and that was enough to bring home the W.
- If you're that good on first downs (KSU had a 0.982 S&P) and that bad on 2nd and 3rd downs, to me that screams "BAD PLAYCALLING". You had makeable 2nd and 3rd downs all night, and you sucked at them. This guy most certainly will NOT get my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
- Something called a "Logan Dold" was KSU's main RB, and considering a) KSU's very solid Line Yard average and b) KSU's very average overall rushing statistics, I'm thinking the O-line blocked alright, but Mr. Dold did not pass the test. But you probably already gathered that from his "13 carries, 47 yards" line.
- Crapsistency, thy name is the Colorado offense by down.
Nebraska |
Iowa State
|
|
| % Close = 80.5% |
||
| 67.2% | Field Position % * |
32.8% |
| 79.7% | Leverage % ** |
57.4% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 79 | Plays | 54 |
| 34.77 | EqPts | 11.36 |
| 57.0% | Success Rate | 31.5% |
| 0.44 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.21 |
| 1.010 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.525 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 67 | Plays | 40 |
| 25.19 | EqPts | 4.79 |
| 55.2% | Success Rate | 35.0% |
| 0.38 | PPP | 0.12 |
| 0.928 | S&P | 0.470 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 17.19 | EqPts | 7.28 |
| 51.3% | Success Rate | 39.1% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.32 |
| 0.954 | S&P | 0.708 |
| 3.52 | Line Yards/carry |
1.85 |
| PASSING | ||
| 17.58 | EqPts | 4.08 |
| 62.5% | Success Rate | 25.8% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.13 |
| 1.065 | S&P | 0.390 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 61.9% | Success Rate | 38.7% |
| 0.49 | PPP | 0.25 |
| 1.113 | S&P | 0.633 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 37.5% | Success Rate | 21.7% |
| 0.23 | PPP | 0.16 |
| 0.601 | S&P | 0.380 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 3 | Number | 2 |
| 7.30 | Points Lost | 5.03 |
| 5.79 | Points Given | 4.34 |
| 13.09 | Total T/O Pts | 9.37 |
| -3.72 | Turnover Pts Margin | +3.72 |
| 0.803 | Q1 S&P | 0.453 |
| 1.390 | Q2 S&P | 0.221 |
| 0.401 | Q3 S&P | 0.893 |
| 1.156 | Q4 S&P | 0.255 |
| 1.201 | 1st Down S&P | 0.625 |
| 0.745 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.528 |
| 0.902 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.296 |
- Yup, it's looking more and more like ISU shot its wad two weeks ago against Kansas. After laying an egg against Baylor, they followed that up with an equally eggy performance at home against the Huskers. Serves me right for picking ISU, I guess.
- Your stat of the game: 3rd Down S&P. NU = 0.902. ISU = 0.296. Ballgame.
- Your stat of the game runner-up: Passing S&P. NU = 1.065. ISU = 0.390.
- The only critique I have of Nebraska is simply that, with these dominant numbers, the game shouldn't have stayed 'close' for so long (it was 21-7 well into the second half). They should have put it away earlier.
Later in the week, we'll look at each team's overall conference averages.
Poll
Texas aside, who had the most impressive performance of the week?
Colorado (1 vote)
Kansas (8 votes)
Nebraska (5 votes)
Oklahoma State (32 votes)
Oklahoma (22 votes)
Texas Tech (15 votes)
83 total votes


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