Mizzou-Texas (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

I don't have many masochistic tendencies, so we're not going to spend a ton of time analyzing Saturday night's destruction.  Instead we're going to take a (relatively) quick look at the BTBS 'box scores' for each of last Saturday's games...

Missouri


Texas

% Close = 29.1%
40.6% Field Position % *
59.4%
65.0% Leverage % **
81.1%
TOTAL
60 Plays 74
25.99 EqPts 44.53
53.3% Success Rate 62.2%
0.43 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.60
0.967 S&P (Success + PPP) 1.223
CLOSE GAME ONLY
12 Plays 27
0.71 EqPts 15.67
16.7% Success Rate 66.7%
0.06 PPP 0.58
0.226 S&P 1.247
RUSHING
5.31 EqPts 19.61
47.1% Success Rate 56.4%
0.31 PPP 0.50
0.783 S&P 1.067
1.73 Line Yards/carry
3.12
PASSING
20.68 EqPts 24.93
55.8% Success Rate 68.6%
0.48 PPP 0.71
1.039 S&P 1.398
NON-PASSING DOWNS
59.0% Success Rate 63.3%
0.46 PPP 0.47
1.051 S&P 1.107
PASSING DOWNS
42.9% Success Rate 57.1%
0.38 PPP 1.15
0.810 S&P 1.722
TURNOVERS
1 Number 0
0.90 Points Lost 0.00
4.25 Points Given 0.00
5.15 Total T/O Pts 0.00
-5.15 Turnover Pts Margin +5.15
0.226 Q1 S&P 1.242
0.814 Q2 S&P 1.563
1.168 Q3 S&P 0.893
1.742 Q4 S&P 1.159
1.150 1st Down S&P 1.190
0.768 2nd Down S&P 1.103
0.891 3rd Down S&P 1.577
  • So what happens if you're, say, Carl Edwards, and you have a mishap on the track in Lap 1 of a race?  Your car is able to keep going, but you end up laps behind.  You try to drive well the rest of the race, but it just doesn't matter because your day ended in the first minute, and the next three hours are just a formality.  This game is why my 'close game' designation was created.  While the overall stats tend to say something, the 'close game' stats are what count.  The overall stats say this was an offensive shootout, with Texas just having more success in the end.  The 'close game' stats say this was never a game, not even for one second.
  • This game was also why I do the "% close" number.  Penn State ended up beating Michigan by a bigger margin than Texas did over Missouri.  But PSU-Mich was 80.0% close (i.e. 80% of the plays took place while the game was within two possessions).  UT-MU wasn't even 30% close.
  • I'm not sure I've ever seen quarter-to-quarter splits as large as Mizzou's in this game.  I mean, 0.226 to 0.814 to 1.168 to 1.742?  To a nerd like me, that's impressive (even though it signifies nothing).
  • Seriously, UT would have beaten anybody in the country by double digits Saturday night.  That show (Q1 in particular) was unreal.  A buddy of mine from Dallas went down to the game and said he was at least heartened by the fact that he got to watch a team play perfect for a half.  Even if it wasn't Mizzou, being in the presence of greatness is still being in the presence of greatness.

On to the other games after the jump...

What else happened last Saturday?

Kansas


Oklahoma

% Close = 85.2%
37.3% Field Position % *
62.7%
73.6% Leverage % **
71.1%
TOTAL
72 Plays 97
31.36 EqPts 44.31
48.6% Success Rate 49.5%
0.44 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.46
0.922 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.952
CLOSE GAME ONLY
58 Plays 86
25.30 EqPts 43.34
53.4% Success Rate 52.3%
0.44 PPP 0.50
0.971 S&P 1.027
RUSHING
10.86 EqPts 15.07
60.0% Success Rate 43.2%
0.43 PPP 0.34
1.034 S&P 0.774
3.74 Line Yards/carry
2.81
PASSING
20.51 EqPts 29.24
42.6% Success Rate 54.7%
0.44 PPP 0.55
0.862 S&P 1.099
NON-PASSING DOWNS
62.3% Success Rate 53.6%
0.56 PPP 0.52
1.181 S&P 1.060
PASSING DOWNS
10.5% Success Rate 39.3%
0.09 PPP 0.29
0.198 S&P 0.684
TURNOVERS
2 Number 0
6.49 Points Lost 0.00
1.92 Points Given 0.00
8.41 Total T/O Pts 0.00
-8.41 Turnover Pts Margin +8.41
1.029 Q1 S&P 1.034
0.134 Q2 S&P 0.932
0.805 Q3 S&P 1.208
0.719 Q4 S&P 0.606
1.244 1st Down S&P 1.205
0.617 2nd Down S&P 0.739
0.513 3rd Down S&P 0.648
  • I think if Mizzou and Kansas played this Saturday, Kansas would win.  There, I said it.  But I'm confident that Mizzou will rediscover its mojo in the next month.  Now, if we beat Colorado something like 17-16, that all changes.
  • Kansas did a strong job of keeping the OU defense on its heels, doing quite well on Non-Passing Downs (particularly 1st downs), both running and throwing; but they had almost no success whatsoever in Passing Downs.
  • OU's offense was by all means solid, but their prodigious output had as much to do with running 97 plays as anything else.  They too were not tremendous on Passing Downs, but the game was decided by the fact that they still converted 39% of Passing Downs, to KU's 10%.
  • 3.74 line yards per carry for Kansas?  Really?  The Kansas that couldn't run the ball?  Against the OU defense that doesn't allow you to run the ball?  Ryan Reynolds = OU's most valuable player.  Luckily for them, they were still able to out-athlete KU.

Baylor


Okla St

% Close = 53.7%
29.6% Field Position % *
70.4%
55.2% Leverage % **
80.8%
TOTAL
58 Plays 78
11.15 EqPts 34.38
31.0% Success Rate 51.3%
0.19 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.44
0.503 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.954
CLOSE GAME ONLY
28 Plays 45
6.76 EqPts 22.13
25.0% Success Rate 60.0%
0.24 PPP 0.49
0.491 S&P 1.092
RUSHING
3.79 EqPts 18.52
24.1% Success Rate 49.1%
0.13 PPP 0.32
0.372 S&P 0.816
1.30 Line Yards/carry
2.98
PASSING
7.36 EqPts 15.87
37.9% Success Rate 57.1%
0.25 PPP 0.76
0.633 S&P 1.327
NON-PASSING DOWNS
34.4% Success Rate 58.7%
0.17 PPP 0.43
0.518 S&P 1.019
PASSING DOWNS
26.9% Success Rate 20.0%
0.22 PPP 0.48
0.484 S&P 0.678
TURNOVERS
1 Number 1
2.38 Points Lost 3.78
1.61 Points Given 1.58
3.99 Total T/O Pts 5.36
-1.37 Turnover Pts Margin +1.37
0.648 Q1 S&P 0.882
0.089 Q2 S&P 1.231
0.624 Q3 S&P 0.769
0.495 Q4 S&P 0.761
0.297 1st Down S&P 1.040
0.787 2nd Down S&P 0.948
0.578 3rd Down S&P 0.711
  • Another fantastic defensive gameplan from the Cowboys.  OSU loaded up against the run, neutralized Robert Griffin's legs, and continuously forced Baylor into Passing Downs.  That's easier said than done.  With five games remaining, this guy gets my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
  • Seriously, a 55% leverage rate is about as bad as it gets.  Well done, Tim Beckman.
  • It appears that Baylor loaded up against the run as well, allowing Dez Bryant to go off.

Tech


ATM

% Close = 98.6%
61.1% Field Position % *
38.9%
81.0% Leverage % **
71.4%
TOTAL
79 Plays 63
39.29 EqPts 18.43
63.3% Success Rate 44.4%
0.50 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.29
1.130 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.737
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays 61
same EqPts 18.00
same Success Rate 44.3%
same PPP 0.30
same S&P 0.738
RUSHING
10.74 EqPts 5.01
65.2% Success Rate 36.8%
0.47 PPP 0.26
1.119 S&P 0.632
3.40 Line Yards/carry
2.23
PASSING
28.55 EqPts 13.42
62.5% Success Rate 47.7%
0.51 PPP 0.31
1.135 S&P 0.782
NON-PASSING DOWNS
65.6% Success Rate 46.7%
0.48 PPP 0.29
1.140 S&P 0.754
PASSING DOWNS
53.3% Success Rate 38.9%
0.56 PPP 0.30
1.091 S&P 0.693
TURNOVERS
3 Number 1

6.93

Points Lost 0.00
7.08 Points Given 3.89
14.01 Total T/O Pts 3.89
-10.12 Turnover Pts Margin +10.12
1.101 Q1 S&P 0.918
1.372 Q2 S&P 0.846
1.018 Q3 S&P 0.368
1.100 Q4 S&P 0.401
1.092 1st Down S&P 0.707
0.986 2nd Down S&P 0.801
1.554 3rd Down S&P 0.694
  • This was a 'close game' until the final two plays.
  • Smoke, mirrors and turnovers kept ATM in this game.  Even in the first half, when they were scoring in buckets, their S&P figures were only above average.  Part of that has to do with good field position, part with the fact that they continuously struggled in the redzone.
  • Consistency, thy name is the Texas Tech offense and its per-quarter stats.
  • Ridiculousness, thy name is the Texas Tech offense on 3rd downs.
  • Check out Tech's rushing stats.  I've mentioned this many, many times now, but if Tech ran the ball for 19 straight plays, defenses would still be playing the pass on play #20.  They have no excuse for ever having a rushing S&P under 1.000.  It's like free money.

K-State


Colorado

% Close = 100.0%
41.5% Field Position % *
58.5%
56.3% Leverage % **
63.4%
TOTAL
64 Plays 82
18.20 EqPts 18.85
35.9% Success Rate 36.6%
0.28 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.23
0.644 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.596
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays same
same EqPts same
same Success Rate same
same PPP same
same S&P same
RUSHING
6.95 EqPts 12.94
50.0% Success Rate 40.0%
0.32 PPP 0.24
0.816 S&P 0.635
3.01 Line Yards/carry
2.79
PASSING
11.24 EqPts 5.90
28.6% Success Rate 29.6%
0.27 PPP 0.22
0.553 S&P 0.515
NON-PASSING DOWNS
52.8% Success Rate 42.3%
0.39 PPP 0.26
0.921 S&P 0.684
PASSING DOWNS
14.3% Success Rate 26.7%
0.14 PPP 0.18
0.287 S&P 0.443
TURNOVERS
2 Number 2
3.66 Points Lost 4.18
5.35 Points Given 3.10
9.01 Total T/O Pts 7.28
-1.73 Turnover Pts Margin +1.73
0.646 Q1 S&P 0.544
0.270 Q2 S&P 0.872
1.017 Q3 S&P 0.460
0.713 Q4 S&P 0.487
0.982 1st Down S&P 0.657
0.324 2nd Down S&P 0.538
0.365 3rd Down S&P 0.551
  • As TB so eloquently put it, there was really no silver lining for KSU in this game.  They held a bad offense in check, which is technically better than the alternative, but the fact that 14 points was enough to get CU the win is embarrassing.  CU played well offensively for two series in Q2, and that was enough to bring home the W.
  • If you're that good on first downs (KSU had a 0.982 S&P) and that bad on 2nd and 3rd downs, to me that screams "BAD PLAYCALLING".  You had makeable 2nd and 3rd downs all night, and you sucked at them.  This guy most certainly will NOT get my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
  • Something called a "Logan Dold" was KSU's main RB, and considering a) KSU's very solid Line Yard average and b) KSU's very average overall rushing statistics, I'm thinking the O-line blocked alright, but Mr. Dold did not pass the test.  But you probably already gathered that from his "13 carries, 47 yards" line.
  • Crapsistency, thy name is the Colorado offense by down.

Nebraska


Iowa State

% Close = 80.5%
67.2% Field Position % *
32.8%
79.7% Leverage % **
57.4%
TOTAL
79 Plays 54
34.77 EqPts 11.36
57.0% Success Rate 31.5%
0.44 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.21
1.010 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.525
CLOSE GAME ONLY
67 Plays 40
25.19 EqPts 4.79
55.2% Success Rate 35.0%
0.38 PPP 0.12
0.928 S&P 0.470
RUSHING
17.19 EqPts 7.28
51.3% Success Rate 39.1%
0.44 PPP 0.32
0.954 S&P 0.708
3.52 Line Yards/carry
1.85
PASSING
17.58 EqPts 4.08
62.5% Success Rate 25.8%
0.44 PPP 0.13
1.065 S&P 0.390
NON-PASSING DOWNS
61.9% Success Rate 38.7%
0.49 PPP 0.25
1.113 S&P 0.633
PASSING DOWNS
37.5% Success Rate 21.7%
0.23 PPP 0.16
0.601 S&P 0.380
TURNOVERS
3 Number 2
7.30 Points Lost 5.03
5.79 Points Given 4.34
13.09 Total T/O Pts 9.37
-3.72 Turnover Pts Margin +3.72
0.803 Q1 S&P 0.453
1.390 Q2 S&P 0.221
0.401 Q3 S&P 0.893
1.156 Q4 S&P 0.255
1.201 1st Down S&P 0.625
0.745 2nd Down S&P 0.528
0.902 3rd Down S&P 0.296
  • Yup, it's looking more and more like ISU shot its wad two weeks ago against Kansas.  After laying an egg against Baylor, they followed that up with an equally eggy performance at home against the Huskers.  Serves me right for picking ISU, I guess.
  • Your stat of the game: 3rd Down S&P.  NU = 0.902.  ISU = 0.296.  Ballgame.
  • Your stat of the game runner-up: Passing S&P.  NU = 1.065.  ISU = 0.390.
  • The only critique I have of Nebraska is simply that, with these dominant numbers, the game shouldn't have stayed 'close' for so long (it was 21-7 well into the second half).  They should have put it away earlier.

Later in the week, we'll look at each team's overall conference averages.

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