Mizzou-Texas (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score
I don't have many masochistic tendencies, so we're not going to spend a ton of time analyzing Saturday night's destruction. Instead we're going to take a (relatively) quick look at the BTBS 'box scores' for each of last Saturday's games...
Missouri |
Texas |
|
| % Close = 29.1% |
||
| 40.6% | Field Position % * |
59.4% |
| 65.0% | Leverage % ** |
81.1% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 60 | Plays | 74 |
| 25.99 | EqPts | 44.53 |
| 53.3% | Success Rate | 62.2% |
| 0.43 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.60 |
| 0.967 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 1.223 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 12 | Plays | 27 |
| 0.71 | EqPts | 15.67 |
| 16.7% | Success Rate | 66.7% |
| 0.06 | PPP | 0.58 |
| 0.226 | S&P | 1.247 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 5.31 | EqPts | 19.61 |
| 47.1% | Success Rate | 56.4% |
| 0.31 | PPP | 0.50 |
| 0.783 | S&P | 1.067 |
| 1.73 | Line Yards/carry |
3.12 |
| PASSING | ||
| 20.68 | EqPts | 24.93 |
| 55.8% | Success Rate | 68.6% |
| 0.48 | PPP | 0.71 |
| 1.039 | S&P | 1.398 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 59.0% | Success Rate | 63.3% |
| 0.46 | PPP | 0.47 |
| 1.051 | S&P | 1.107 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 42.9% | Success Rate | 57.1% |
| 0.38 | PPP | 1.15 |
| 0.810 | S&P | 1.722 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 1 | Number | 0 |
| 0.90 | Points Lost | 0.00 |
| 4.25 | Points Given | 0.00 |
| 5.15 | Total T/O Pts | 0.00 |
| -5.15 | Turnover Pts Margin | +5.15 |
| 0.226 | Q1 S&P | 1.242 |
| 0.814 | Q2 S&P | 1.563 |
| 1.168 | Q3 S&P | 0.893 |
| 1.742 | Q4 S&P | 1.159 |
| 1.150 | 1st Down S&P | 1.190 |
| 0.768 | 2nd Down S&P | 1.103 |
| 0.891 | 3rd Down S&P | 1.577 |
- So what happens if you're, say, Carl Edwards, and you have a mishap on the track in Lap 1 of a race? Your car is able to keep going, but you end up laps behind. You try to drive well the rest of the race, but it just doesn't matter because your day ended in the first minute, and the next three hours are just a formality. This game is why my 'close game' designation was created. While the overall stats tend to say something, the 'close game' stats are what count. The overall stats say this was an offensive shootout, with Texas just having more success in the end. The 'close game' stats say this was never a game, not even for one second.
- This game was also why I do the "% close" number. Penn State ended up beating Michigan by a bigger margin than Texas did over Missouri. But PSU-Mich was 80.0% close (i.e. 80% of the plays took place while the game was within two possessions). UT-MU wasn't even 30% close.
- I'm not sure I've ever seen quarter-to-quarter splits as large as Mizzou's in this game. I mean, 0.226 to 0.814 to 1.168 to 1.742? To a nerd like me, that's impressive (even though it signifies nothing).
- Seriously, UT would have beaten anybody in the country by double digits Saturday night. That show (Q1 in particular) was unreal. A buddy of mine from Dallas went down to the game and said he was at least heartened by the fact that he got to watch a team play perfect for a half. Even if it wasn't Mizzou, being in the presence of greatness is still being in the presence of greatness.
On to the other games after the jump...
What else happened last Saturday?
Kansas |
Oklahoma |
|
| % Close = 85.2% |
||
| 37.3% | Field Position % * |
62.7% |
| 73.6% | Leverage % ** |
71.1% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 72 | Plays | 97 |
| 31.36 | EqPts | 44.31 |
| 48.6% | Success Rate | 49.5% |
| 0.44 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.46 |
| 0.922 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.952 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 58 | Plays | 86 |
| 25.30 | EqPts | 43.34 |
| 53.4% | Success Rate | 52.3% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.50 |
| 0.971 | S&P | 1.027 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 10.86 | EqPts | 15.07 |
| 60.0% | Success Rate | 43.2% |
| 0.43 | PPP | 0.34 |
| 1.034 | S&P | 0.774 |
| 3.74 | Line Yards/carry |
2.81 |
| PASSING | ||
| 20.51 | EqPts | 29.24 |
| 42.6% | Success Rate | 54.7% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.55 |
| 0.862 | S&P | 1.099 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 62.3% | Success Rate | 53.6% |
| 0.56 | PPP | 0.52 |
| 1.181 | S&P | 1.060 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 10.5% | Success Rate | 39.3% |
| 0.09 | PPP | 0.29 |
| 0.198 | S&P | 0.684 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 2 | Number | 0 |
| 6.49 | Points Lost | 0.00 |
| 1.92 | Points Given | 0.00 |
| 8.41 | Total T/O Pts | 0.00 |
| -8.41 | Turnover Pts Margin | +8.41 |
| 1.029 | Q1 S&P | 1.034 |
| 0.134 | Q2 S&P | 0.932 |
| 0.805 | Q3 S&P | 1.208 |
| 0.719 | Q4 S&P | 0.606 |
| 1.244 | 1st Down S&P | 1.205 |
| 0.617 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.739 |
| 0.513 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.648 |
- I think if Mizzou and Kansas played this Saturday, Kansas would win. There, I said it. But I'm confident that Mizzou will rediscover its mojo in the next month. Now, if we beat Colorado something like 17-16, that all changes.
- Kansas did a strong job of keeping the OU defense on its heels, doing quite well on Non-Passing Downs (particularly 1st downs), both running and throwing; but they had almost no success whatsoever in Passing Downs.
- OU's offense was by all means solid, but their prodigious output had as much to do with running 97 plays as anything else. They too were not tremendous on Passing Downs, but the game was decided by the fact that they still converted 39% of Passing Downs, to KU's 10%.
- 3.74 line yards per carry for Kansas? Really? The Kansas that couldn't run the ball? Against the OU defense that doesn't allow you to run the ball? Ryan Reynolds = OU's most valuable player. Luckily for them, they were still able to out-athlete KU.
Baylor |
Okla St
|
|
| % Close = 53.7% |
||
| 29.6% | Field Position % * |
70.4% |
| 55.2% | Leverage % ** |
80.8% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 58 | Plays | 78 |
| 11.15 | EqPts | 34.38 |
| 31.0% | Success Rate | 51.3% |
| 0.19 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.44 |
| 0.503 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.954 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 28 | Plays | 45 |
| 6.76 | EqPts | 22.13 |
| 25.0% | Success Rate | 60.0% |
| 0.24 | PPP | 0.49 |
| 0.491 | S&P | 1.092 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 3.79 | EqPts | 18.52 |
| 24.1% | Success Rate | 49.1% |
| 0.13 | PPP | 0.32 |
| 0.372 | S&P | 0.816 |
| 1.30 | Line Yards/carry |
2.98 |
| PASSING | ||
| 7.36 | EqPts | 15.87 |
| 37.9% | Success Rate | 57.1% |
| 0.25 | PPP | 0.76 |
| 0.633 | S&P | 1.327 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 34.4% | Success Rate | 58.7% |
| 0.17 | PPP | 0.43 |
| 0.518 | S&P | 1.019 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 26.9% | Success Rate | 20.0% |
| 0.22 | PPP | 0.48 |
| 0.484 | S&P | 0.678 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 1 | Number | 1 |
| 2.38 | Points Lost | 3.78 |
| 1.61 | Points Given | 1.58 |
| 3.99 | Total T/O Pts | 5.36 |
| -1.37 | Turnover Pts Margin | +1.37 |
| 0.648 | Q1 S&P | 0.882 |
| 0.089 | Q2 S&P | 1.231 |
| 0.624 | Q3 S&P | 0.769 |
| 0.495 | Q4 S&P | 0.761 |
| 0.297 | 1st Down S&P | 1.040 |
| 0.787 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.948 |
| 0.578 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.711 |
- Another fantastic defensive gameplan from the Cowboys. OSU loaded up against the run, neutralized Robert Griffin's legs, and continuously forced Baylor into Passing Downs. That's easier said than done. With five games remaining, this guy gets my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
- Seriously, a 55% leverage rate is about as bad as it gets. Well done, Tim Beckman.
- It appears that Baylor loaded up against the run as well, allowing Dez Bryant to go off.
Tech |
ATM |
|
| % Close = 98.6% |
||
| 61.1% | Field Position % * |
38.9% |
| 81.0% | Leverage % ** |
71.4% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 79 | Plays | 63 |
| 39.29 | EqPts | 18.43 |
| 63.3% | Success Rate | 44.4% |
| 0.50 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.29 |
| 1.130 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.737 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| same | Plays | 61 |
| same | EqPts | 18.00 |
| same | Success Rate | 44.3% |
| same | PPP | 0.30 |
| same | S&P | 0.738 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 10.74 | EqPts | 5.01 |
| 65.2% | Success Rate | 36.8% |
| 0.47 | PPP | 0.26 |
| 1.119 | S&P | 0.632 |
| 3.40 | Line Yards/carry |
2.23 |
| PASSING | ||
| 28.55 | EqPts | 13.42 |
| 62.5% | Success Rate | 47.7% |
| 0.51 | PPP | 0.31 |
| 1.135 | S&P | 0.782 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 65.6% | Success Rate | 46.7% |
| 0.48 | PPP | 0.29 |
| 1.140 | S&P | 0.754 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 53.3% | Success Rate | 38.9% |
| 0.56 | PPP | 0.30 |
| 1.091 | S&P | 0.693 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 3 | Number | 1 |
|
6.93 |
Points Lost | 0.00 |
| 7.08 | Points Given | 3.89 |
| 14.01 | Total T/O Pts | 3.89 |
| -10.12 | Turnover Pts Margin | +10.12 |
| 1.101 | Q1 S&P | 0.918 |
| 1.372 | Q2 S&P | 0.846 |
| 1.018 | Q3 S&P | 0.368 |
| 1.100 | Q4 S&P | 0.401 |
| 1.092 | 1st Down S&P | 0.707 |
| 0.986 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.801 |
| 1.554 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.694 |
- This was a 'close game' until the final two plays.
- Smoke, mirrors and turnovers kept ATM in this game. Even in the first half, when they were scoring in buckets, their S&P figures were only above average. Part of that has to do with good field position, part with the fact that they continuously struggled in the redzone.
- Consistency, thy name is the Texas Tech offense and its per-quarter stats.
- Ridiculousness, thy name is the Texas Tech offense on 3rd downs.
- Check out Tech's rushing stats. I've mentioned this many, many times now, but if Tech ran the ball for 19 straight plays, defenses would still be playing the pass on play #20. They have no excuse for ever having a rushing S&P under 1.000. It's like free money.
K-State |
Colorado |
|
| % Close = 100.0% |
||
| 41.5% | Field Position % * |
58.5% |
| 56.3% | Leverage % ** |
63.4% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 64 | Plays | 82 |
| 18.20 | EqPts | 18.85 |
| 35.9% | Success Rate | 36.6% |
| 0.28 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.23 |
| 0.644 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.596 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| same | Plays | same |
| same | EqPts | same |
| same | Success Rate | same |
| same | PPP | same |
| same | S&P | same |
| RUSHING | ||
| 6.95 | EqPts | 12.94 |
| 50.0% | Success Rate | 40.0% |
| 0.32 | PPP | 0.24 |
| 0.816 | S&P | 0.635 |
| 3.01 | Line Yards/carry |
2.79 |
| PASSING | ||
| 11.24 | EqPts | 5.90 |
| 28.6% | Success Rate | 29.6% |
| 0.27 | PPP | 0.22 |
| 0.553 | S&P | 0.515 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 52.8% | Success Rate | 42.3% |
| 0.39 | PPP | 0.26 |
| 0.921 | S&P | 0.684 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 14.3% | Success Rate | 26.7% |
| 0.14 | PPP | 0.18 |
| 0.287 | S&P | 0.443 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 2 | Number | 2 |
| 3.66 | Points Lost | 4.18 |
| 5.35 | Points Given | 3.10 |
| 9.01 | Total T/O Pts | 7.28 |
| -1.73 | Turnover Pts Margin | +1.73 |
| 0.646 | Q1 S&P | 0.544 |
| 0.270 | Q2 S&P | 0.872 |
| 1.017 | Q3 S&P | 0.460 |
| 0.713 | Q4 S&P | 0.487 |
| 0.982 | 1st Down S&P | 0.657 |
| 0.324 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.538 |
| 0.365 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.551 |
- As TB so eloquently put it, there was really no silver lining for KSU in this game. They held a bad offense in check, which is technically better than the alternative, but the fact that 14 points was enough to get CU the win is embarrassing. CU played well offensively for two series in Q2, and that was enough to bring home the W.
- If you're that good on first downs (KSU had a 0.982 S&P) and that bad on 2nd and 3rd downs, to me that screams "BAD PLAYCALLING". You had makeable 2nd and 3rd downs all night, and you sucked at them. This guy most certainly will NOT get my Assistant Coach of the Year vote.
- Something called a "Logan Dold" was KSU's main RB, and considering a) KSU's very solid Line Yard average and b) KSU's very average overall rushing statistics, I'm thinking the O-line blocked alright, but Mr. Dold did not pass the test. But you probably already gathered that from his "13 carries, 47 yards" line.
- Crapsistency, thy name is the Colorado offense by down.
Nebraska |
Iowa State
|
|
| % Close = 80.5% |
||
| 67.2% | Field Position % * |
32.8% |
| 79.7% | Leverage % ** |
57.4% |
| TOTAL | ||
| 79 | Plays | 54 |
| 34.77 | EqPts | 11.36 |
| 57.0% | Success Rate | 31.5% |
| 0.44 | Points Per Play (PPP) | 0.21 |
| 1.010 | S&P (Success + PPP) | 0.525 |
| CLOSE GAME ONLY | ||
| 67 | Plays | 40 |
| 25.19 | EqPts | 4.79 |
| 55.2% | Success Rate | 35.0% |
| 0.38 | PPP | 0.12 |
| 0.928 | S&P | 0.470 |
| RUSHING | ||
| 17.19 | EqPts | 7.28 |
| 51.3% | Success Rate | 39.1% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.32 |
| 0.954 | S&P | 0.708 |
| 3.52 | Line Yards/carry |
1.85 |
| PASSING | ||
| 17.58 | EqPts | 4.08 |
| 62.5% | Success Rate | 25.8% |
| 0.44 | PPP | 0.13 |
| 1.065 | S&P | 0.390 |
| NON-PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 61.9% | Success Rate | 38.7% |
| 0.49 | PPP | 0.25 |
| 1.113 | S&P | 0.633 |
| PASSING DOWNS | ||
| 37.5% | Success Rate | 21.7% |
| 0.23 | PPP | 0.16 |
| 0.601 | S&P | 0.380 |
| TURNOVERS | ||
| 3 | Number | 2 |
| 7.30 | Points Lost | 5.03 |
| 5.79 | Points Given | 4.34 |
| 13.09 | Total T/O Pts | 9.37 |
| -3.72 | Turnover Pts Margin | +3.72 |
| 0.803 | Q1 S&P | 0.453 |
| 1.390 | Q2 S&P | 0.221 |
| 0.401 | Q3 S&P | 0.893 |
| 1.156 | Q4 S&P | 0.255 |
| 1.201 | 1st Down S&P | 0.625 |
| 0.745 | 2nd Down S&P | 0.528 |
| 0.902 | 3rd Down S&P | 0.296 |
- Yup, it's looking more and more like ISU shot its wad two weeks ago against Kansas. After laying an egg against Baylor, they followed that up with an equally eggy performance at home against the Huskers. Serves me right for picking ISU, I guess.
- Your stat of the game: 3rd Down S&P. NU = 0.902. ISU = 0.296. Ballgame.
- Your stat of the game runner-up: Passing S&P. NU = 1.065. ISU = 0.390.
- The only critique I have of Nebraska is simply that, with these dominant numbers, the game shouldn't have stayed 'close' for so long (it was 21-7 well into the second half). They should have put it away earlier.
Later in the week, we'll look at each team's overall conference averages.
0 recs |
6 comments
|
Comments
"I don't have many masochistic tendencies"
… says the Mizzou/Blazers/Pirates/Dolphins fan.
Care to reexamine that statement?
http://www.RockMNation.com
Chance McDanielson for Heisman
by RPT on Oct 20, 2008 3:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Okay...
…I don’t have any voluntarily masochistic tendencies. I avoid it when I can because most of the time I can’t.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
by Bill C. on Oct 20, 2008 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Holy #### is that a shameful line up of teams.
I give you lots of respect for putting up with sports franchises such as those (well, except for Mizzou football recently). That’s enough to drive a man insane.
Also, I think the fumbleitis and the ###### defensive play at the start of Q3 kept ISU in it for longer than we would have liked.
by Doc1028 on Oct 20, 2008 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
…my wife tries to claim insecurity over the fact that I only pick losers, and yet I picked her. Like, by picking her, I was calling her a loser…
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
by Bill C. on Oct 20, 2008 7:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couple things, re: K-State
Dold is a serviceable running back, but nothing more. Not quick, no real moves, but usually pretty smart about finding a hole and getting upfield.
You could not have been more accurate with the “bad playcalling” assessment. I could not discern a game plan from anything we did. We didn’t really try to establish the run, we didn’t mix up the playcalling (at least not early), and we didn’t try to set anything up with our playcalling. If we were passing, we just dropped back and the receivers ran around. Maybe that sounds like exactly what you do when you’re passing, but we didn’t try to get CU thinking one thing and then end up doing something else.
We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats
by TB on Oct 20, 2008 6:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
ESPN needs to read and learn
Seriously, The Boy, I’m at a loss how ESPN continues to hire morons to analyze college football and don’t hire you to do this stuff for them.
You’re right; we would have beaten anyone Saturday night. I was shocked how we came out and just thoroughly dominated like that. That was as perfect a half as a team can play. Missouri just had the misfortune of being on the receiving end.
I thought Daniel played gutsy despite being blown out. He finished with respectable numbers and never quit, and that Coffman fellow is a player. Wow. Care to let him on our team? If we had a tight end like that to replace our injuryed Irby, I’d be one happy person.
I know you can’t just point to one play for a game like this, but on Missouri’s very first play after Maclin’s good return, I thought the reverse play was a stupid call. With our D-line’s ability to get penetration and the athleticism of our linebackers, it’s a pretty risky call and not one you guys should have done at that point. Maclin was dropped for a big loss and that killed the opening drive, and then we drove 94 yards for a score. For all intents and purposes, the game’s momentum went to us and we never let up until halftime. I think it was our night so we were going to win anyway, but perhaps things are a little different if that didn’t happen. The electricity that shot through the stadium after that three and out was immense. Hard to describe.
by TheElusiveShadow on Oct 20, 2008 10:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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