That's right, boys and girls (mostly boys)...it's that time of week again. It's time for BTBS Box Scores!
Colorado (0)
|
|
Mizzou (58)
|
|
% Close = 19.0%
|
|
31.1% |
Field Position %
|
68.9% |
58.0% |
Leverage %
|
79.5% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
69 |
Plays |
73 |
8.65 |
EqPts |
40.05 |
27.5% |
Success Rate |
57.5% |
0.13 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.55 |
0.401 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
1.124 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
7 |
Plays |
20 |
-0.66 |
EqPts |
12.25 |
14.3% |
Success Rate |
70.0% |
-0.09 |
PPP |
0.61 |
0.049 |
S&P |
1.313 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
2.94 |
EqPts |
14.20 |
25.8% |
Success Rate |
46.9% |
0.10 |
PPP |
0.44 |
0.353 |
S&P |
0.913 |
1.18 |
Line Yards/carry
|
2.88 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
5.71 |
EqPts |
25.85 |
29.0% |
Success Rate |
65.9% |
0.15 |
PPP |
0.63 |
0.440 |
S&P |
1.289 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
30.0% |
Success Rate |
62.1% |
0.13 |
PPP |
0.54 |
0.434 |
S&P |
1.157 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
24.1% |
Success Rate |
40.0% |
0.11 |
PPP |
0.60 |
0.355 |
S&P |
0.998 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
1 |
Number |
1 |
2.41 |
Points Lost |
1.76 |
2.10 |
Points Given |
2.41 |
4.51 |
Total T/O Pts |
4.17 |
-0.34 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
+0.34 |
|
|
|
0.244 |
Q1 S&P |
1.310 |
0.249 |
Q2 S&P |
1.006 |
0.417 |
Q3 S&P |
1.135 |
0.548 |
Q4 S&P |
1.062 |
|
|
|
0.332 |
1st Down S&P |
1.158 |
0.488 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.992 |
0.377 |
3rd Down S&P |
1.268 |
I'll save most of my thoughts for tomorrow, but...holy crap, those are just universally atrocious numbers from Colorado. Their best down (2nd) was not even half as good as Mizzou's best down (2nd). Their success rates on Non-Passing Downs (30.0%) were 10% worse than Mizzou's success rates on Passing Downs (40.0%). Missouri's close-game S&P was 2680% that of Colorado's. I don't mean to pile on, really (I like the folks at Ralphie Report), but...SEMO's offense looked about twice as good as Colorado's on Faurot Field. Coach Nick Nolte's got some work to do.
Other Big 12 games after the jump.
We'll start with last week's marquee game...
Okla St (24)
|
|
Texas (28)
|
|
% Close = 100.0%
|
|
51.4% |
Field Position %
|
48.6% |
68.8% |
Leverage %
|
74.0% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
64 |
Plays |
77 |
24.01 |
EqPts |
31.48 |
53.1% |
Success Rate |
54.6% |
0.38 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.41 |
0.906 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.954 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
same |
Plays |
same |
same |
EqPts |
same |
same |
Success Rate |
same |
same |
PPP |
same |
same |
S&P |
same |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
13.42 |
EqPts |
9.66 |
62.5% |
Success Rate |
45.2% |
0.42 |
PPP |
0.31 |
1.044 |
S&P |
0.763 |
4.12 |
Line Yards/carry
|
2.72 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
10.59 |
EqPts |
21.83 |
43.8% |
Success Rate |
60.9% |
0.33 |
PPP |
0.47 |
0.768 |
S&P |
1.083 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
59.1% |
Success Rate |
52.6% |
0.35 |
PPP |
0.38 |
0.941 |
S&P |
0.905 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
40.0% |
Success Rate |
60.0% |
0.43 |
PPP |
0.49 |
0.829 |
S&P |
1.095 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
1 |
Number |
2 |
3.57 |
Points Lost |
5.98 |
0.90 |
Points Given |
2.70 |
4.47 |
Total T/O Pts |
8.68 |
+2.21 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
-2.21 |
|
|
|
0.697 |
Q1 S&P |
0.871 |
1.126 |
Q2 S&P |
1.292 |
1.036 |
Q3 S&P |
1.139 |
0.631 |
Q4 S&P |
0.595 |
|
|
|
0.952 |
1st Down S&P |
0.909 |
0.850 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.890 |
0.914 |
3rd Down S&P |
1.261 |
- Simply hellacious rushing numbers put up by Kendall Hunter and OSU. Wouldn't have thought that was possible against Texas. Honestly, he should have probably gotten more than 18 carries. However, despite the re-emergence of Brandon Pettigrew (just in time for him to win All-Big 12 over Chase Coffman, I'm sure), OSU's passing game was simply too ineffective to keep up. UT's secondary has slowly become a strength as the year has progressed, and their ability to prevent the big play has improved.
- Meanwhile, if Colt McCoy wins the Heisman this year, you can thank the constantly successful tightrope act of thriving on Passing Downs. Yet again, UT was better on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs, and while you have to worry that the magic could suddenly, violently disappear (it did for Chase Daniel for about 6 quarters, long enough to kill his Heisman chances and his team's title chances), it might not.
Tex Tech (63)
|
|
Kansas (21)
|
|
% Close = 44.9%
|
|
67.1% |
Field Position %
|
32.9% |
75.3% |
Leverage %
|
72.9% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
77 |
Plays |
59 |
47.33 |
EqPts |
19.73 |
58.4% |
Success Rate |
50.9% |
0.61 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.33 |
1.199 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.843 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
34 |
Plays |
27 |
26.31 |
EqPts |
11.98 |
67.7% |
Success Rate |
63.0% |
0.77 |
PPP |
0.44 |
1.450 |
S&P |
1.073 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
12.89 |
EqPts |
9.16 |
55.6% |
Success Rate |
54.8% |
0.48 |
PPP |
0.30 |
1.033 |
S&P |
0.844 |
3.36 |
Line Yards/carry
|
4.02 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
34.44 |
EqPts |
10.57 |
60.0% |
Success Rate |
46.4% |
0.69 |
PPP |
0.38 |
1.289 |
S&P |
0.842 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
65.5% |
Success Rate |
60.5% |
0.57 |
PPP |
0.38 |
1.224 |
S&P |
0.986 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
36.8% |
Success Rate |
25.0% |
0.76 |
PPP |
0.21 |
1.125 |
S&P |
0.460 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
1 |
Number |
5 |
4.85 |
Points Lost |
11.39 |
0.87 |
Points Given |
15.18 |
5.72 |
Total T/O Pts |
26.57 |
+20.85 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
-20.85 |
|
|
|
1.528 |
Q1 S&P |
1.282 |
1.267 |
Q2 S&P |
0.480 |
1.149 |
Q3 S&P |
0.000 |
1.317 |
Q4 S&P |
0.607 |
|
|
|
1.205 |
1st Down S&P |
0.936 |
1.034 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.681 |
1.461 |
3rd Down S&P |
0.964 |
- Speaking of preventing the big play, Tech figured out the perfect defensive recipe for stopping KU. They prevented the big play, they contained Dez Briscoe, and they got into Todd Reesing's head. KU ran the ball well again, which is encouraging for them...but that's where the encouraging news ended. You're reading that right: they had a 0.00 S&P in Q3. They barely touched the ball, and they didn't have a single successful play. Of course, that's what happens when you throw 3 INTs in 4 passes, leading to...
- A TWENTY-ONE POINT ADVANTAGE FOR TECH IN THE TURNOVER DEPARTMENT. Holy jeez, Mr. Reesing.
- Meanwhile, the Tech offense continues to roll. Their ridiculous success on 3rd downs shows two things: 1) KU showed nothing on defense, and 2) Tech was doing a phenomenal job of leveraging into makeable 3rd downs (as proven by their 75% leverage rate). Graham Harrell wasn't pulling rabbits out of his hat on 3rd downs--he didn't have to.
Oklahoma (58)
|
|
K-State (35)
|
|
% Close = 46.0%
|
|
55.0% |
Field Position %
|
45.0% |
0.662 |
Leverage %
|
0.631 |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
77 |
Plays |
84 |
41.28 |
EqPts |
38.17 |
44.2% |
Success Rate |
39.3% |
0.54 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.45 |
0.978 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.847 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
40 |
Plays |
34 |
33.87 |
EqPts |
19.42 |
55.0% |
Success Rate |
50.0% |
0.85 |
PPP |
0.57 |
1.397 |
S&P |
1.071 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
22.81 |
EqPts |
6.05 |
48.9% |
Success Rate |
33.3% |
0.51 |
PPP |
0.20 |
0.996 |
S&P |
0.545 |
3.73 |
Line Yards/carry
|
2.05 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
18.47 |
EqPts |
32.13 |
37.5% |
Success Rate |
42.6% |
0.58 |
PPP |
0.59 |
0.952 |
S&P |
1.021 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
51.0% |
Success Rate |
41.5% |
0.59 |
PPP |
0.49 |
1.102 |
S&P |
0.907 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
30.8% |
Success Rate |
35.5% |
0.43 |
PPP |
0.39 |
0.734 |
S&P |
0.745 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
1 |
Number |
5 |
3.09 |
Points Lost |
11.28 |
1.51 |
Points Given |
15.13 |
4.60 |
Total T/O Pts |
26.41 |
+21.81 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
-21.81 |
|
|
|
1.769 |
Q1 S&P |
1.008 |
0.993 |
Q2 S&P |
1.271 |
0.634 |
Q3 S&P |
0.576 |
0.378 |
Q4 S&P |
0.579 |
|
|
|
1.252 |
1st Down S&P |
0.691 |
0.811 |
2nd Down S&P |
1.076 |
0.563 |
3rd Down S&P |
0.825 |
- I know it's weird saying this, considering they've scored 100+ points in the last two games (and they didn't even try in the second half against KSU), but I'm a little concerned about OU's offense. They're great at the big play, and that's fine (as long as they continue to pull off the long play), but...they're relying on it a bit too much. Their 38% passing success rate is too low, as is their 3rd Down S&P--against a better defense (like OSU's, for instance), they probably won't manage as many big plays, and they might be in trouble if they have to generate long drives.
- That said, MAN OH MAN are they explosive...and they played K-State without their most explosive player, Manny Johnson (okay, Ryan Broyles might be their most explosive, but Johnson is more consistent).
- I really enjoy picking at Ron Prince (particuarly his play-calling), as I really do not respect his abilities or coaching style...but instead of actually saying anything negative about him this time around (or how the play-calling still seems to have been suspect despite the fact that they scored 35 points against OU), I'll just link to a more knowledgeable source doing just that (to a degree). Moving on...
- Josh Freeman (32.13 Passing EqPts and an INSANELY gorgeous bomb to Ernie Pierce) was the reason KSU kept up with OU for a while, and Josh Freeman (responsible for 4 of KSU's 5 turnovers, which completely made the difference in the game) was the reason KSU lost.
Baylor (20)
|
|
Nebraska (32)
|
|
% Close = 100.0%
|
|
23.5% |
Field Position %
|
76.5% |
77.4% |
Leverage %
|
72.3% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
53 |
Plays |
83 |
22.78 |
EqPts |
32.18 |
35.9% |
Success Rate |
47.0% |
0.43 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.39 |
0.788 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.858 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
same |
Plays |
same |
same |
EqPts |
same |
same |
Success Rate |
same |
same |
PPP |
same |
same |
S&P |
same |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
15.81 |
EqPts |
10.01 |
43.3% |
Success Rate |
42.9% |
0.53 |
PPP |
0.29 |
0.960 |
S&P |
0.715 |
3.33 |
Line Yards/carry
|
3.47 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
6.96 |
EqPts |
22.17 |
26.1% |
Success Rate |
50.0% |
0.30 |
PPP |
0.46 |
0.564 |
S&P |
0.962 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
41.5% |
Success Rate |
45.0% |
0.48 |
PPP |
0.36 |
0.899 |
S&P |
0.814 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
16.7% |
Success Rate |
52.2% |
0.24 |
PPP |
0.45 |
0.409 |
S&P |
0.970 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
0 |
Number |
1 |
0.00 |
Points Lost |
5.39 |
0.00 |
Points Given |
0.80 |
0.00 |
Total T/O Pts |
6.19 |
+6.19 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
-6.19 |
|
|
|
1.271 |
Q1 S&P |
0.890 |
0.927 |
Q2 S&P |
0.839 |
0.680 |
Q3 S&P |
0.778 |
0.336 |
Q4 S&P |
0.921 |
|
|
|
1.032 |
1st Down S&P |
0.779 |
0.663 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.757 |
-0.049 |
3rd Down S&P |
1.247 |
- Chalk this one up to "Baylor's still learning how to win". Hot Tub Griffin's Bears were the better team on Non-Passing Downs, they led at halftime, they were still in the game heading into Q4...
- ...and they went 0-for-10 on 3rd Downs, put up a negative 3rd Down S&P, and put up a Colorado-esque Q4 S&P. Third downs and fourth quarters: the last step in learning how to win.
- And power to NU for pulling through and establishing themselves as possibly the second-best team in the North (at least until they lose to KU soon...if they do indeed lose). They dominated the field position battle, and they made plays when it counted.
Tex A&M (49)
|
|
Iowa St (35)
|
|
% Close = 90.6%
|
|
41.3% |
Field Position %
|
58.8% |
73.0% |
Leverage %
|
65.9% |
|
|
|
|
TOTAL |
|
74 |
Plays |
85 |
39.73 |
EqPts |
34.89 |
55.4% |
Success Rate |
52.9% |
0.54 |
Points Per Play (PPP) |
0.41 |
1.091 |
S&P (Success + PPP) |
0.940 |
|
|
|
|
CLOSE GAME ONLY |
|
same |
Plays |
70 |
same |
EqPts |
25.70 |
same |
Success Rate |
50.0% |
same |
PPP |
0.37 |
same |
S&P |
0.867 |
|
|
|
|
RUSHING |
|
12.49 |
EqPts |
16.18 |
44.1% |
Success Rate |
51.4% |
0.37 |
PPP |
0.46 |
0.809 |
S&P |
0.977 |
2.89 |
Line Yards/carry
|
3.50 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING |
|
27.24 |
EqPts |
18.71 |
65.0% |
Success Rate |
54.0% |
0.68 |
PPP |
0.37 |
1.331 |
S&P |
0.914 |
|
|
|
|
NON-PASSING DOWNS |
|
53.7% |
Success Rate |
60.7% |
0.53 |
PPP |
0.41 |
1.063 |
S&P |
1.020 |
|
|
|
|
PASSING DOWNS |
|
60.0% |
Success Rate |
37.9% |
0.57 |
PPP |
0.41 |
1.168 |
S&P |
0.785 |
|
|
|
|
TURNOVERS |
|
1 |
Number |
2 |
3.57 |
Points Lost |
2.48 |
1.76 |
Points Given |
5.58 |
5.33 |
Total T/O Pts |
8.06 |
+2.73 |
Turnover Pts Margin |
-2.73 |
|
|
|
0.957 |
Q1 S&P |
1.050 |
1.300 |
Q2 S&P |
0.969 |
0.978 |
Q3 S&P |
0.868 |
1.062 |
Q4 S&P |
0.887 |
|
|
|
0.913 |
1st Down S&P |
0.883 |
1.057 |
2nd Down S&P |
0.880 |
1.582 |
3rd Down S&P |
1.158 |
- Power to ATM for winning despite once again getting gashed on the defensive line (3.50 line yards per carry) and losing the field position battle. Jerrod Johnson pulled his best Houdini act in coming up big on 3rd Downs (11-for-14) and Passing Downs. He completed six or more passes to four different targets--Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, and the McCoy brothers (Jamie and Terrence...who I'm disappointed to learn, actually are related...it's a lot more fun to call those sharing a last name "brothers" when they're quite obviously not brothers, a la Matt and Keon Lawrence), and the ATM offense was downright solid despite the injury to Mike Goodson.
- Really, that's what the game came down to--ATM stayed out of Passing Downs better than ISU, and they converted Passing Downs MUCH better.
- I'm going to assume the only reason ISU's RBs had only 22 carries instead of 32 or 42 is because the 'Clones were trailing by double digits by mid-Q2. Otherwise it makes no sense.