Big 12 'BTBS' Box Scores

That's right, boys and girls (mostly boys)...it's that time of week again.  It's time for BTBS Box Scores!

Colorado (0)


Mizzou (58)

% Close = 19.0%
31.1% Field Position %
68.9%
58.0% Leverage %
79.5%
TOTAL
69 Plays 73
8.65 EqPts 40.05
27.5% Success Rate 57.5%
0.13 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.55
0.401 S&P (Success + PPP) 1.124
CLOSE GAME ONLY
7 Plays 20
-0.66 EqPts 12.25
14.3% Success Rate 70.0%
-0.09 PPP 0.61
0.049 S&P 1.313
RUSHING
2.94 EqPts 14.20
25.8% Success Rate 46.9%
0.10 PPP 0.44
0.353 S&P 0.913
1.18 Line Yards/carry
2.88
PASSING
5.71 EqPts 25.85
29.0% Success Rate 65.9%
0.15 PPP 0.63
0.440 S&P 1.289
NON-PASSING DOWNS
30.0% Success Rate 62.1%
0.13 PPP 0.54
0.434 S&P 1.157
PASSING DOWNS
24.1% Success Rate 40.0%
0.11 PPP 0.60
0.355 S&P 0.998
TURNOVERS
1 Number 1
2.41 Points Lost 1.76
2.10 Points Given 2.41
4.51 Total T/O Pts 4.17
-0.34 Turnover Pts Margin +0.34
0.244 Q1 S&P 1.310
0.249 Q2 S&P 1.006
0.417 Q3 S&P 1.135
0.548 Q4 S&P 1.062
0.332 1st Down S&P 1.158
0.488 2nd Down S&P 0.992
0.377 3rd Down S&P 1.268

I'll save most of my thoughts for tomorrow, but...holy crap, those are just universally atrocious numbers from Colorado.  Their best down (2nd) was not even half as good as Mizzou's best down (2nd).  Their success rates on Non-Passing Downs (30.0%) were 10% worse than Mizzou's success rates on Passing Downs (40.0%).  Missouri's close-game S&P was 2680% that of Colorado's.  I don't mean to pile on, really (I like the folks at Ralphie Report), but...SEMO's offense looked about twice as good as Colorado's on Faurot Field.  Coach Nick Nolte's got some work to do.

Other Big 12 games after the jump.

We'll start with last week's marquee game...

Okla St (24)


Texas (28)

% Close = 100.0%
51.4% Field Position %
48.6%
68.8% Leverage %
74.0%
TOTAL
64 Plays 77
24.01 EqPts 31.48
53.1% Success Rate 54.6%
0.38 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.41
0.906 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.954
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays same
same EqPts same
same Success Rate same
same PPP same
same S&P same
RUSHING
13.42 EqPts 9.66
62.5% Success Rate 45.2%
0.42 PPP 0.31
1.044 S&P 0.763
4.12 Line Yards/carry
2.72
PASSING
10.59 EqPts 21.83
43.8% Success Rate 60.9%
0.33 PPP 0.47
0.768 S&P 1.083
NON-PASSING DOWNS
59.1% Success Rate 52.6%
0.35 PPP 0.38
0.941 S&P 0.905
PASSING DOWNS
40.0% Success Rate 60.0%
0.43 PPP 0.49
0.829 S&P 1.095
TURNOVERS
1 Number 2
3.57 Points Lost 5.98
0.90 Points Given 2.70
4.47 Total T/O Pts 8.68
+2.21 Turnover Pts Margin -2.21
0.697 Q1 S&P 0.871
1.126 Q2 S&P 1.292
1.036 Q3 S&P 1.139
0.631 Q4 S&P 0.595
0.952 1st Down S&P 0.909
0.850 2nd Down S&P 0.890
0.914 3rd Down S&P 1.261
  • Simply hellacious rushing numbers put up by Kendall Hunter and OSU.  Wouldn't have thought that was possible against Texas.  Honestly, he should have probably gotten more than 18 carries.  However, despite the re-emergence of Brandon Pettigrew (just in time for him to win All-Big 12 over Chase Coffman, I'm sure), OSU's passing game was simply too ineffective to keep up.  UT's secondary has slowly become a strength as the year has progressed, and their ability to prevent the big play has improved.
  • Meanwhile, if Colt McCoy wins the Heisman this year, you can thank the constantly successful tightrope act of thriving on Passing Downs.  Yet again, UT was better on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs, and while you have to worry that the magic could suddenly, violently disappear (it did for Chase Daniel for about 6 quarters, long enough to kill his Heisman chances and his team's title chances), it might not.

Tex Tech (63)


Kansas (21)

% Close = 44.9%
67.1% Field Position %
32.9%
75.3% Leverage %
72.9%
TOTAL
77 Plays 59
47.33 EqPts 19.73
58.4% Success Rate 50.9%
0.61 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.33
1.199 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.843
CLOSE GAME ONLY
34 Plays 27
26.31 EqPts 11.98
67.7% Success Rate 63.0%
0.77 PPP 0.44
1.450 S&P 1.073
RUSHING
12.89 EqPts 9.16
55.6% Success Rate 54.8%
0.48 PPP 0.30
1.033 S&P 0.844
3.36 Line Yards/carry
4.02
PASSING
34.44 EqPts 10.57
60.0% Success Rate 46.4%
0.69 PPP 0.38
1.289 S&P 0.842
NON-PASSING DOWNS
65.5% Success Rate 60.5%
0.57 PPP 0.38
1.224 S&P 0.986
PASSING DOWNS
36.8% Success Rate 25.0%
0.76 PPP 0.21
1.125 S&P 0.460
TURNOVERS
1 Number 5
4.85 Points Lost 11.39
0.87 Points Given 15.18
5.72 Total T/O Pts 26.57
+20.85 Turnover Pts Margin -20.85
1.528 Q1 S&P 1.282
1.267 Q2 S&P 0.480
1.149 Q3 S&P 0.000
1.317 Q4 S&P 0.607
1.205 1st Down S&P 0.936
1.034 2nd Down S&P 0.681
1.461 3rd Down S&P 0.964
  • Speaking of preventing the big play, Tech figured out the perfect defensive recipe for stopping KU.  They prevented the big play, they contained Dez Briscoe, and they got into Todd Reesing's head.  KU ran the ball well again, which is encouraging for them...but that's where the encouraging news ended.  You're reading that right: they had a 0.00 S&P in Q3. They barely touched the ball, and they didn't have a single successful play.  Of course, that's what happens when you throw 3 INTs in 4 passes, leading to...
  • A TWENTY-ONE POINT ADVANTAGE FOR TECH IN THE TURNOVER DEPARTMENT.  Holy jeez, Mr. Reesing.
  • Meanwhile, the Tech offense continues to roll.  Their ridiculous success on 3rd downs shows two things: 1) KU showed nothing on defense, and 2) Tech was doing a phenomenal job of leveraging into makeable 3rd downs (as proven by their 75% leverage rate).  Graham Harrell wasn't pulling rabbits out of his hat on 3rd downs--he didn't have to.

Oklahoma (58)


K-State (35)

% Close = 46.0%
55.0% Field Position %
45.0%
0.662 Leverage %
0.631
TOTAL
77 Plays 84
41.28 EqPts 38.17
44.2% Success Rate 39.3%
0.54 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.45
0.978 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.847
CLOSE GAME ONLY
40 Plays 34
33.87 EqPts 19.42
55.0% Success Rate 50.0%
0.85 PPP 0.57
1.397 S&P 1.071
RUSHING
22.81 EqPts 6.05
48.9% Success Rate 33.3%
0.51 PPP 0.20
0.996 S&P 0.545
3.73 Line Yards/carry
2.05
PASSING
18.47 EqPts 32.13
37.5% Success Rate 42.6%
0.58 PPP 0.59
0.952 S&P 1.021
NON-PASSING DOWNS
51.0% Success Rate 41.5%
0.59 PPP 0.49
1.102 S&P 0.907
PASSING DOWNS
30.8% Success Rate 35.5%
0.43 PPP 0.39
0.734 S&P 0.745
TURNOVERS
1 Number 5
3.09 Points Lost 11.28
1.51 Points Given 15.13
4.60 Total T/O Pts 26.41
+21.81 Turnover Pts Margin -21.81
1.769 Q1 S&P 1.008
0.993 Q2 S&P 1.271
0.634 Q3 S&P 0.576
0.378 Q4 S&P 0.579
1.252 1st Down S&P 0.691
0.811 2nd Down S&P 1.076
0.563 3rd Down S&P 0.825
  • I know it's weird saying this, considering they've scored 100+ points in the last two games (and they didn't even try in the second half against KSU), but I'm a little concerned about OU's offense.  They're great at the big play, and that's fine (as long as they continue to pull off the long play), but...they're relying on it a bit too much.  Their 38% passing success rate is too low, as is their 3rd Down S&P--against a better defense (like OSU's, for instance), they probably won't manage as many big plays, and they might be in trouble if they have to generate long drives.
  • That said, MAN OH MAN are they explosive...and they played K-State without their most explosive player, Manny Johnson (okay, Ryan Broyles might be their most explosive, but Johnson is more consistent).
  • I really enjoy picking at Ron Prince (particuarly his play-calling), as I really do not respect his abilities or coaching style...but instead of actually saying anything negative about him this time around (or how the play-calling still seems to have been suspect despite the fact that they scored 35 points against OU), I'll just link to a more knowledgeable source doing just that (to a degree).  Moving on...
  • Josh Freeman (32.13 Passing EqPts and an INSANELY gorgeous bomb to Ernie Pierce) was the reason KSU kept up with OU for a while, and Josh Freeman (responsible for 4 of KSU's 5 turnovers, which completely made the difference in the game) was the reason KSU lost.

Baylor (20)


Nebraska (32)

% Close = 100.0%
23.5% Field Position %
76.5%
77.4% Leverage %
72.3%
TOTAL
53 Plays 83
22.78 EqPts 32.18
35.9% Success Rate 47.0%
0.43 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.39
0.788 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.858
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays same
same EqPts same
same Success Rate same
same PPP same
same S&P same
RUSHING
15.81 EqPts 10.01
43.3% Success Rate 42.9%
0.53 PPP 0.29
0.960 S&P 0.715
3.33 Line Yards/carry
3.47
PASSING
6.96 EqPts 22.17
26.1% Success Rate 50.0%
0.30 PPP 0.46
0.564 S&P 0.962
NON-PASSING DOWNS
41.5% Success Rate 45.0%
0.48 PPP 0.36
0.899 S&P 0.814
PASSING DOWNS
16.7% Success Rate 52.2%
0.24 PPP 0.45
0.409 S&P 0.970
TURNOVERS
0 Number 1
0.00 Points Lost 5.39
0.00 Points Given 0.80
0.00 Total T/O Pts 6.19
+6.19 Turnover Pts Margin -6.19
1.271 Q1 S&P 0.890
0.927 Q2 S&P 0.839
0.680 Q3 S&P 0.778
0.336 Q4 S&P 0.921
1.032 1st Down S&P 0.779
0.663 2nd Down S&P 0.757
-0.049 3rd Down S&P 1.247
  • Chalk this one up to "Baylor's still learning how to win".  Hot Tub Griffin's Bears were the better team on Non-Passing Downs, they led at halftime, they were still in the game heading into Q4...
  • ...and they went 0-for-10 on 3rd Downs, put up a negative 3rd Down S&P, and put up a Colorado-esque Q4 S&P.  Third downs and fourth quarters: the last step in learning how to win.
  • And power to NU for pulling through and establishing themselves as possibly the second-best team in the North (at least until they lose to KU soon...if they do indeed lose).  They dominated the field position battle, and they made plays when it counted.

Tex A&M (49)


Iowa St (35)

% Close = 90.6%
41.3% Field Position %
58.8%
73.0% Leverage %
65.9%
TOTAL
74 Plays 85
39.73 EqPts 34.89
55.4% Success Rate 52.9%
0.54 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.41
1.091 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.940
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays 70
same EqPts 25.70
same Success Rate 50.0%
same PPP 0.37
same S&P 0.867
RUSHING
12.49 EqPts 16.18
44.1% Success Rate 51.4%
0.37 PPP 0.46
0.809 S&P 0.977
2.89 Line Yards/carry
3.50
PASSING
27.24 EqPts 18.71
65.0% Success Rate 54.0%
0.68 PPP 0.37
1.331 S&P 0.914
NON-PASSING DOWNS
53.7% Success Rate 60.7%
0.53 PPP 0.41
1.063 S&P 1.020
PASSING DOWNS
60.0% Success Rate 37.9%
0.57 PPP 0.41
1.168 S&P 0.785
TURNOVERS
1 Number 2
3.57 Points Lost 2.48
1.76 Points Given 5.58
5.33 Total T/O Pts 8.06
+2.73 Turnover Pts Margin -2.73
0.957 Q1 S&P 1.050
1.300 Q2 S&P 0.969
0.978 Q3 S&P 0.868
1.062 Q4 S&P 0.887
0.913 1st Down S&P 0.883
1.057 2nd Down S&P 0.880
1.582 3rd Down S&P 1.158
  • Power to ATM for winning despite once again getting gashed on the defensive line (3.50 line yards per carry) and losing the field position battle.  Jerrod Johnson pulled his best Houdini act in coming up big on 3rd Downs (11-for-14) and Passing Downs.  He completed six or more passes to four different targets--Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill, and the McCoy brothers (Jamie and Terrence...who I'm disappointed to learn, actually are related...it's a lot more fun to call those sharing a last name "brothers" when they're quite obviously not brothers, a la Matt and Keon Lawrence), and the ATM offense was downright solid despite the injury to Mike Goodson.
  • Really, that's what the game came down to--ATM stayed out of Passing Downs better than ISU, and they converted Passing Downs MUCH better.
  • I'm going to assume the only reason ISU's RBs had only 22 carries instead of 32 or 42 is because the 'Clones were trailing by double digits by mid-Q2.  Otherwise it makes no sense.
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