Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings (after 4 weeks)

I still don't have anything new to say about the Mizzou-Colorado game, so we'll forgo that post with this one: BTBS Rankings and week-to-week projections for the rest of Big 12 play.

And as a quick review, any '+' rating is a team's performance compared to what would be expected against the teams they've played so far.  100 = dead on average.  <100 = bad.  >100 = good.

OVERALL

Big 12 Rankings*

  1. Texas (238.1)
  2. Oklahoma (226.3)
  3. Texas Tech (225.5)
  4. Missouri (224.8)
  5. Oklahoma State (218.0)
  6. Nebraska (203.5)
  7. Kansas (194.9)
  8. Kansas State (189.0)
  9. Texas A&M (182.5)
  10. Baylor (178.2)
  11. Colorado (167.3)
  12. Iowa State (165.3)

* Determined by adding together teams' Close-Game Offensive S&P+ and Close-Game Defensive S&P+, being that how you play during close games is what counts the most.    Being that it's two categories combined, 200 = average, <200 = bad, >200 =  good.  You can find each of those individual categories after the jump.

OFFENSE

Offensive Success Rates+ (most efficient offense)

  1. Missouri (124.5)
  2. Texas (120.2)
  3. Texas Tech (119.8)
  4. Nebraska (105.5)
  5. Oklahoma State (103.4)
  6. Oklahoma (101.4)
  7. Kansas (99.2)
  8. Texas A&M (93.1)
  9. Kansas State (89.0)
  10. Iowa State (85.7)
  11. Baylor (85.2)
  12. Colorado (72.1)

Offensive Points Per Play+ (most explosive offense)

  1. Texas Tech (125.7)
  2. Missouri (123.6)
  3. Texas (122.9)
  4. Oklahoma (116.9)
  5. Oklahoma State (107.8)
  6. Texas A&M (106.8)
  7. Kansas (101.6)
  8. Nebraska (98.4)
  9. Kansas State (94.0)
  10. Iowa State (72.9)
  11. Baylor (72.5)
  12. Colorado (52.2)

Offensive S&P+ (best overall offense)

  1. Missouri (124.1)
  2. Texas Tech (122.6)
  3. Texas (121.4)
  4. Oklahoma (108.6)
  5. Oklahoma State (105.4)
  6. Nebraska (102.4)
  7. Kansas (100.3)
  8. Texas A&M (99.2)
  9. Kansas State (91.2)
  10. Iowa State (79.8)
  11. Baylor (79.2)
  12. Colorado (62.8)

More rankings after the jump...plus projections/predictions for the rest of conference play!

Rushing Offense S&P+

  1. Texas (119.6)
  2. Texas Tech (116.9)
  3. Missouri (113.7)
  4. Oklahoma State (108.0)
  5. Oklahoma (103.0)
  6. Kansas (102.4)
  7. Nebraska (99.8)
  8. Texas A&M (99.0)
  9. Kansas State (91.3)
  10. Iowa State (90.7)
  11. Baylor (88.5)
  12. Colorado (70.2)

Passing Offense S&P+

  1. Missouri (127.0)
  2. Texas (124.1)
  3. Texas Tech (121.1)
  4. Oklahoma (115.8)
  5. Oklahoma State (111.6)
  6. Nebraska (101.2)
  7. Kansas (99.5)
  8. Texas A&M (96.8)
  9. Kansas State (91.4)
  10. Iowa State (71.7)
  11. Baylor (71.2)
  12. Colorado (58.7)

Close-Game Offense S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (130.7)
  2. Oklahoma (123.9)
  3. Missouri (118.4)
  4. Texas (117.0)
  5. Oklahoma State (103.7)
  6. Kansas (100.7)
  7. Nebraska (97.5)
  8. Kansas State (96.7)
  9. Texas A&M (85.1)
  10. Baylor (82.2)
  11. Iowa State (80.6)
  12. Colorado (59.6)

Non-Passing Downs Offense S&P+

  1. Missouri (121.2)
  2. Texas Tech (115.7)
  3. Oklahoma (111.3)
  4. Texas (107.3)
  5. Oklahoma State (104.4)
  6. Nebraska (103.7)
  7. Kansas (101.2)
  8. Texas A&M (96.4)
  9. Kansas State (95.3)
  10. Iowa State (81.9)
  11. Baylor (80.7)
  12. Colorado (62.8)

Passing Downs Offense S&P+

  1. Texas (176.9)
  2. Texas Tech (158.3)
  3. Missouri (127.6)
  4. Oklahoma State (113.5)
  5. Texas A&M (111.3)
  6. Oklahoma (105.4)
  7. Nebraska (103.3)
  8. Kansas (101.4)
  9. Kansas State (90.6)
  10. Iowa State (87.9)
  11. Baylor (84.6)
  12. Colorado (67.6)

Redzone Offense S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (124.9)
  2. Texas (118.8)
  3. Kansas (117.5)
  4. Kansas State (106.2)
  5. Missouri (105.2)
  6. Nebraska (103.9)
  7. Texas Tech (102.0)
  8. Oklahoma State (89.2)
  9. Texas A&M (88.5)
  10. Colorado (76.3)
  11. Iowa State (73.6)
  12. Baylor (69.1)

DEFENSE

Defensive Success Rates+

  1. Nebraska (112.4)
  2. Oklahoma State (109.3)
  3. Missouri (109.3)
  4. Oklahoma (107.4)
  5. Colorado (107.3)
  6. Texas (105.6)
  7. Kansas (99.5)
  8. Kansas State (98.8)
  9. Baylor (98.1)
  10. Texas Tech (94.5)
  11. Iowa State (86.5)
  12. Texas A&M (84.8)

Defensive Points Per Play+

  1. Oklahoma State (120.6)
  2. Texas Tech (117.6)
  3. Colorado (106.9)
  4. Missouri (105.8)
  5. Texas (104.6)
  6. Baylor (103.0)
  7. Oklahoma (98.2)
  8. Kansas (95.6)
  9. Kansas State (95.3)
  10. Texas A&M (91.0)
  11. Nebraska (90.3)
  12. Iowa State (83.5)

Defensive S&P+

  1. Oklahoma State (114.3)
  2. Missouri (107.7)
  3. Colorado (107.1)
  4. Texas (105.1)
  5. Texas Tech (103.7)
  6. Oklahoma (103.0)
  7. Nebraska (101.1)
  8. Baylor (100.3)
  9. Kansas (97.6)
  10. Kansas State (97.1)
  11. Texas A&M (87.5)
  12. Iowa State (85.1)

Rushing Defense S&P+

  1. Missouri (118.4)
  2. Texas (115.9)
  3. Oklahoma State (113.5)
  4. Colorado (105.1)
  5. Baylor (102.3)
  6. Kansas (101.1)
  7. Texas Tech (99.6)
  8. Oklahoma (98.9)
  9. Iowa State (95.0)
  10. Kansas State (92.0)
  11. Nebraska (91.9)
  12. Texas A&M (85.4)

Passing Defense S&P+

  1. Oklahoma State (116.8)
  2. Nebraska (107.6)
  3. Texas Tech (107.5)
  4. Oklahoma (107.4)
  5. Colorado (107.4)
  6. Texas (105.9)
  7. Missouri (100.5)
  8. Kansas State (99.3)
  9. Kansas (96.8)
  10. Baylor (94.8)
  11. Texas A&M (88.8)
  12. Iowa State (76.2)

Close-Game Defense S&P+

  1. Texas (121.1)
  2. Oklahoma State (114.2)
  3. Colorado (107.7)
  4. Missouri (106.4)
  5. Nebraska (106.0)
  6. Oklahoma (102.4)
  7. Texas A&M (97.3)
  8. Baylor (96.0)
  9. Texas Tech (94.9)
  10. Kansas (94.2)
  11. Kansas State (92.3)
  12. Iowa State (84.8)

Non-Passing Downs Defense S&P+

  1. Oklahoma State (110.1)
  2. Missouri (108.2)
  3. Texas (107.1)
  4. Colorado (104.4)
  5. Baylor (102.4)
  6. Nebraska (101.3)
  7. Texas Tech (99.9)
  8. Kansas (99.5)
  9. Kansas State (96.0)
  10. Oklahoma (95.2)
  11. Iowa State (92.6)
  12. Texas A&M (91.2)

Passing Downs Defense S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (124.0)
  2. Oklahoma (119.6)
  3. Oklahoma State (114.7)
  4. Colorado (103.5)
  5. Missouri (101.3)
  6. Kansas State (96.5)
  7. Nebraska (92.4)
  8. Texas (92.2)
  9. Baylor (91.9)
  10. Kansas (89.4)
  11. Texas A&M (73.1)
  12. Iowa State (64.2)

Redzone Defense S&P+

  1. Missouri (124.0)
  2. Texas Tech (115.4)
  3. Oklahoma (115.2)
  4. Baylor (105.9)
  5. Oklahoma State (101.3)
  6. Nebraska (101.0)
  7. Colorado (99.8)
  8. Kansas State (99.0)
  9. Kansas (98.3)
  10. Texas (93.1)
  11. Texas A&M (89.1)
  12. Iowa State (74.8)

--

PREDICTIONS

As I get time, I will get a little fancier in how I do these, but for now we'll stick with basically the straight-forward approach that I've been using in BTBS previews this year.  I compare a teams Rushing EqPts/Game to their opponent's Rushing EqPts+, and so on.  So basically I'm just looking at Rushing #'s and Passing #'s, with an added 'close-game performance' component.  I'll slowly try to work in by-quarter #'s, Passing Down #'s, etc.

And just as a warning, my '+' rankings currently love Texas Tech, like Nebraska a decent amount, and are only lukewarm on Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.  If you disagree with that, blame the small sample size.  If you agree with that, then credit me for creating a brilliant system.  So with that in mind, let's see how the rest of the year is projected to play out!

November 1

Texas Tech 37, Texas 25 (!)
Missouri 32, Baylor 22
Kansas 36, Kansas State 27
Oklahoma 41, Nebraska 25
Oklahoma State 39, Iowa State 14
Texas A&M 31, Colorado 13

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (3-2)
Kansas (3-2)
Nebraska (2-3)
Kansas State (1-4)
Colorado (1-4)
Iowa State (0-5)

South
Texas Tech (5-0)
Texas (4-1)
Oklahoma (4-1)
Oklahoma State (4-1)
Texas A&M (2-3)
Baylor (1-4)

November 8

Texas Tech 35, Oklahoma State 23
Nebraska 34, Kansas 24
Oklahoma 40, Texas A&M 32
Missouri 41, Kansas State 22
Texas 40, Baylor 14
Colorado 21, Iowa State 18

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (4-2)
Nebraska (3-3)
Kansas (3-3)
Colorado (2-4)
Kansas State (1-5)
Iowa State (0-6)
South
Texas Tech (6-0)
Texas (5-1)
Oklahoma (5-1)
Oklahoma State (4-2)
Texas A&M (2-4)
Baylor (1-5)

November 15

Missouri 36, Iowa State 22
Texas 35, Kansas 27*
Nebraska 29, Kansas State 28
Texas A&M 28, Baylor 26
Oklahoma State 26, Colorado 15

* Missouri's win, paired with KU's loss, clinches the North title for Missouri.  Nebraska can still tie them, but MU wins the tie-breaker.

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (5-2)
Nebraska (4-3)
Kansas (3-4)
Colorado (2-5)
Kansas State (2-5)
Iowa State (0-7)
South
Texas Tech (6-0)
Texas (6-1)
Oklahoma (5-1)
Oklahoma State (5-2)
Texas A&M (3-4)
Baylor (1-6)

November 22

Oklahoma 36, Texas Tech 35
Kansas State 36, Iowa State 21

Resulting Standings

North
Missouri (5-2)
Nebraska (4-3)
Kansas (3-4)
Kansas State (3-5)
Colorado (2-5)
Iowa State (0-8)

South
Oklahoma (6-1)
Texas (6-1)
Texas Tech (6-1)
Oklahoma State (5-2)
Texas A&M (3-4)
Baylor (1-6)

We head into Thanksgiving weekend with four different teams still eligible for the South title.

Oklahoma wins if a) they beat OSU and A&M beats Texas, or b) they beat OSU, Texas beats A&M and Tech beats Baylor and OU finishes highest in the BCS standings (they probably would, I think).

Texas wins if a) they beat A&M and Baylor beats Tech, or b) they beat A&M, OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor and UT finishes highest in the BCS standings (a possibility).

Texas Tech wins if a) they beat Baylor and OSU beats OU, or b) they beat Baylor, OU beats OSU and UT beats A&M and Tech finishes highest in the BCS standings (doubtful).

Oklahoma State wins if they beat OU, A&M beats UT and Baylor beats Tech, and OSU finishes highest in the BCS standings.

November 27

Texas 41, Texas A&M 21*

* Oklahoma State is eliminated from the South race

November 28

Nebraska 30, Colorado 11

November 29

Texas Tech 45, Baylor 14
Oklahoma State 33, Oklahoma 29*
Missouri 37, Kansas 26

* OU's loss means Tech and Texas tie for the division title, and Tech wins the head-to-head tie-breaker.

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (6-2, 10-2)
Nebraska (5-3, 8-4)
Kansas (3-5, 6-6)
Kansas State (3-5, 6-6)
Colorado (2-6, 5-7)
Iowa State (0-8, 2-10)
South
Texas Tech (7-1, 11-1)
Texas (7-1, 11-1)
Oklahoma State (6-2, 10-2)
Oklahoma (6-2, 10-2)
Texas A&M (3-5, 5-7)
Baylor (1-7, 3-9)

December 6 - Big 12 Championship

Texas Tech 33, Missouri 31

Bowls*

BCS Championship: Texas Tech (12-1) vs Penn State
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (11-1) vs Florida
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma (10-2) vs Georgia
Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State (10-2) vs Arizona
Gator Bowl: MissourI (10-3)** vs Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (7-5) vs Northwestern
Independence Bowl: Kansas (6-6) vs Tennessee
Insight Bowl: Kansas State (6-6) vs Michigan State
Texas Bowl: nobody from the Big 12 qualifies

* To determine the matchups, I just looked at ESPN's current projections and took whoever Bruce Feldman had because a) I didn't really want to spend a lot of time figuring out the matchups, and b) Mark Schabach sucks.

** I realize the Gator will probably take Notre Dame, but screw that.

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