Mizzou-OSU: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

OSU

Opp.

Mizzou

Opp.

47.9% % Close 50.0%
57.1% 42.9% Field Position % 56.6% 43.4%
72.3% 64.4% Leverage % 77.3% 67.2%
Total
350 354 Plays 348 390
194.72 106.51 EqPts 197.57 107.52
53.4% 39.5% Success Rate 58.0% 39.0%
0.56 0.30 PPP 0.57 0.28
1.091 0.696 S&P 1.148 0.665
Close Games
203 134 Plays 214 155
108.28 25.19 EqPts 125.51 42.63
52.2% 33.6% Success Rate 59.3% 38.1%
0.53 0.19 PPP 0.59 0.28
1.056 0.524 S&P 1.180 0.656
Rushing
121.57 39.86 EqPts 76.15 25.49
53.7% 38.6% Success Rate 51.5% 35.4%
0.48 0.26 PPP 0.47 0.16
1.014 0.646 S&P 0.983 0.509
3.63 2.91 Line Yds/carry 3.27 2.28
Passing
73.14 66.65 EqPts 121.43 82.03
52.6% 40.3% Success Rate 63.8% 41.6%
0.77 0.33 PPP 0.66 0.36
1.296 0.735 S&P 1.294 0.779
Non-Passing Downs
56.9% 46.9% Success Rate 62.1% 44.7%
0.53 0.31 PPP 0.59 0.30
1.095 0.779 S&P 1.207 0.749
Passing Downs
44.3% 26.2% Success Rate 44.3% 27.3%
0.64 0.28 PPP 0.51 0.22
1.079 0.546 S&P 0.948 0.495
Turnovers
6 11 Total 5 9
12.63 19.10 Points Lost 14.68 20.67
16.54 39.00 Points Given 12.31 44.40
29.17 58.10 Total T/O Pts 26.99 65.07
+28.93 -28.93 T/O Pts Margin +38.08 -38.08
Q1
53.3% 28.4% Success Rate 60.9% 44.9%
0.52 0.24 PPP 0.66 0.30
1.056 0.523 S&P 1.264 0.745
Q2
50.0% 39.8% Success Rate 59.1% 23.8%
0.53 0.24 PPP 0.59 0.23
1.029 0.635 S&P 1.185 0.463
Q3
63.9% 51.0% Success Rate 62.9% 45.0%
0.73 0.36 PPP 0.67 0.36
1.364 0.871 S&P 1.304 0.809
Q4
47.1% 37.8% Success Rate 47.3% 33.3%
0.46 0.37 PPP 0.30 0.19
0.929 0.744 S&P 0.772 0.525
1st Downs
53.8% 40.3% Success Rate 59.6% 40.9%
0.58 0.25 PPP 0.60 0.30
1.114 0.654 S&P 1.191 0.705
2nd Downs
51.8% 40.7% Success Rate 59.8% 34.0%
0.52 0.34 PPP 0.50 0.25
1.040 0.743 S&P 1.095 0.588
3rd Downs
52.5% 29.6% Success Rate 53.8% 38.9%
0.58 0.23 PPP 0.63 0.28
1.108 0.530 S&P 1.166 0.665

Thoughts...

  • OSU's offensive leverage total is a little low to me, considering they haven't played many great defenses.  A 72% rate against iffy competition means Mizzou could force them into the high-60% range.  What that means is, a lot of passing downs for OSU.  Now, they've done well so far in Passing Downs this year, but still...the more PD's for OSU, the better for Mizzou.
  • Both teams are obviously explosive on offense and decent on defense, but you see from the numbers that, against slightly harder competition, Mizzou's offensive and defensive numbers have both been a bit better.  That's encouraging.  However, in close games, OSU's defense has been mighty stout so far.
  • OSU's 3.63 Line Yards per carry is simply astounding.  That's really, really good.  Combined with the meager two sacks they've allowed, you begin to think that OSU has a pretty damn stout offensive line, huh?
  • Meanwhile, MU's only giving up 0.16 PPP rushing.  Even when they give up some yards, they're pretty empty yards.
  • OSU and MU have pretty much identical S&P numbers in the passing game, but the sheer quantity of passing tells you something.  OSU appears to be an "establish the run, beat 'em deep" team...which is obviously a bit different than Mizzou's strategy.
  • Mizzou's success rate is 62.1% on Non-Passing Downs.  Oy.
  • Both defenses are good on Passing Downs, but Mizzou's has been a smidge better.  Take out the horrific breakdowns against Illinois four games ago, and Mizzou's Passing Down breakdowns have been minimal at best.
  • Both offenses are great in every quarter (I'm ignoring Q4 numbers, as neither teams have played many meaningful plays in Q4), but they're best in Q3.  Meanwhile, Mizzou's defense seems to be iffy in the 'gameplan' quarters (Q1/Q3) and dominant in the 'talent' quarters (Q2/Q4), while OSU's defense gets a little worse each quarter.  Keep that last point in mind if they're actually slowing Mizzou down early.

Projections after the jump.

So this week we're going to slowly break 2008 numbers into the '+' projections.  While I still don't have '+' numbers for 2008--I only have BCS results, not non-BCS results--I do have 2008 averages.  Now, they've been skewed a bit by strength of schedule and small sample size, but that's what my "Adjusted for 2008" line is for.  So with those disclaimers out of the way, let's go...

Mizzou-Oklahoma State '+' Projections

Mizzou Rushing

  • 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
  • 2008 Oklahoma State Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 7.96
  • Projection #1: 10.88
  • 2007 Oklahoma State Rushing Defense EqPts+: 93.71
  • 2008 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 15.23
  • Projection #2: 16.25

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 13.57

Adjusted for 2008: 19.0Quite simply, OSU hasn't played a team with nearly the rushing game that Missouri has.  Until somebody stops Derrick Washington, I'm projecting up with this one.

Mizzou Passing

  • 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
  • 2008 Oklahoma State Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.33
  • Projection #1: 20.90
  • 2007 Oklahoma State Passing Defense EqPts+: 91.63
  • 2008 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 24.29
  • Projection #2: 26.51

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 23.71

Adjusted for 2008: 28.0.  As I stated yesterday in the Roundtable, OSU's defensive line has generated two sacks so far this year in five games.  That's simply not going to cut it.  Without pressure generated from the opponent's defensive line, Chase Daniel has shown that he will effortlessly, mercilessly pick a defense apart.

Oklahoma State Rushing

  • 2007 Oklahoma State Rushing Offense EqPts+: 147.53
  • 2008 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 5.10
  • Projection #1: 7.52
  • 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
  • 2008 Oklahoma State Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 24.31
  • Projection #2: 19.94

Projected Oklahoma State Rushing Output: 13.73

Adjusted for 2008: 14.0.  Illinois has the #19 rushing offense in the nation.  Nevada has the #4 rushing offense.  And yet Mizzou is still giving up only 5.10 rushing EqPts per game.  I'm not saying they'll shut down OSU's attack by any means--14 points is still a solid amount--but I doubt OSU will be able to put up anywhere near their current averages.

Oklahoma State Passing

  • 2007 Oklahoma State Passing Offense EqPts+: 129.62
  • 2008 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 16.41
  • Projection #1: 21.27
  • 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
  • 2008 Oklahoma State Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 14.63
  • Projection #2: 14.08

Projected Oklahoma State Passing Output: 17.68

Adjusted for 2008: 15.0.  This will depend on the health of Brandon "You Might Remember Me From Last Year's Ridiculous Coaches' All-Conference Team" Pettigrew.  Pettigrew is day-to-day, and if he can't play and Dez Bryant is the only sure thing in the OSU receiving corps, I do not expect big things from the OSU passing game.  Even with Pettigrew, Zac Robinson has not yet had to throw a pressure-packed pass this season.  When you're gashing teams on the ground, it's easy to throw a play-action bomb to somebody as good as Dez Bryant.  If the ground yards/points aren't coming quite as easy, Robinson will find himself in some passing downs.

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 47.0, Oklahoma State 29.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 51, Oklahoma State 27.

--

Key Players: Oklahoma State

QB Zac Robinson

He rushed for 79 yards against Texas A&M.  He threw for 320 against Houston.  Bottom line: he's in the wrong conference.  He'd possibly be the best QB in just about any other conference in the country, but at best he's #4 or #5 in the Big 12.  That aside, he's a huge wildcard because of his legs and his arm, and he gets his chance to shine in front of possibly the biggest TV audience for which he's played.  He put up 108 rushing yards and 276 passing yards against Kansas last year.  Granted, they lost that game, but he's dangerous.

WR Dez Bryant

He's a cross between Jeremy Maclin and Michael Crabtree in terms of size and speed, and he's a threat to score any time he touches the ball.  He had one of the most impressive punt return TDs you'll ever see last week against ATM.  If the Robinson-to-Bryant connection gets going, OSU can match Missouri score for score.  If it doesn't...well, no other OSU receiver currently averages more than 1 catch a game.  It's Bryant or nothing, unless Brandon Pettigrew quickly re-emerges for a huge game after injury.

LT Russell Okung, LG Andrew Lewis, C David Washington, RG Steve Denning, RT Brady Bond

The OSU offensive line is the key to the Pokes' 315 rushing yards per game and 3.63 line yards per carry, not to mention the fact that they've obviously been key in Zac Robinson only being sacked twice in five games.  Mizzou's front four is by far the best they've faced so far.  Lose this battle, lose the game...fast.

CB Perrish Cox

This one is two-fold. First, Cox has the highest ceiling of any OSU defensive back.  If anybody is going to make a big play in the secondary, chances are it will be him.  Second, he's a ridiculously dangerous kickoff returner, and though Bryant's a great punt returner...well, chances are OSU will be returning a lot more kickoffs than punts, right?  Buffalo was able to stay close to Missouri early in the game because of Ernest Jackson's kick return TD.  A quick TD from Cox would take the starch out of what will likely be a crazy nighttime crowd at Faurot.

Key Players: Missouri

Every Mizzou WR/TE/RB/QB and their hands

OSU has not proven that they'll be able to get pressure on Chase Daniel.  That suggests that the only way they're going to stop Missouri is going to be with turnovers.  They forced a boatload (five) of them against Texas A&M last week, and it made the difference in the game; we all know that Mizzou's WRs suddenly contracted a case of fumbleitis against Buffalo less than three weeks ago.  If Mizzou doesn't turn the ball over, they don't lose.

CB Carl Gettis

Nobody's been higher on Carl Gettis than your good friends here at Rock M Nation.  And you can add Nate Swift to the list of #1 WRs who turned into non-factors at the hands of Mizzou's lockdown CB.  However, Dez Bryant is really, really good.  If Gettis wins this battle, Mizzou will roll.  If he can fight the battle to a draw (which is what I'm hoping for), Mizzou will win comfortably.  If Bryant has his way against Gettis (and the others who end up covering him at different times), OSU will be right in this game.

DTs Ziggy Hood and Jaron Baston

Dez Bryant scares me the most, but OSU's running game is still plenty frightening, especially with Zac Robinson threatening to run more.  OSU's offensive line has been dominant so far, but they haven't faced a D-line as good as Mizzou's.  If Hood and Baston hold their own, and Mizzou's LBs are free to take on Robinson, Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston, I like that matchup.

FS William Moore

I'm going to keep him on here until I know he's full-speed.  When we have a 100% Willy Mo in the defensive backfield, Mizzou's defense will be all sorts of dangerous.

--

Summary

It's not OSU's fault that they haven't played anybody too good yet (not that Mizzou's played a muderer's row, by any means), but it does make predictions difficult.  Both offenses are better and more well-rounded than any either defense has faced so far, but I think this game comes down to star power.  OSU's got a lot on offense; Mizzou's got as much or more on offense, and a solid amount on defense as well.  On a play-making level, Derrick Washington has a better chance of keeping up with Kendall Hunter and Keith Toston than Dez Bryant has of keeping up with Jeremy Maclin, Chase Coffman, Danario "Boy, didn't I sure look 100% last Saturday?" Alexander, Tommy Saunders, and Jared Perry.  And while Zac Robinson is good, he's not as good as Chase Daniel.

What Mizzou's offense is so good at is not only putting pressure on an opponent's defense, but an opponent's offense as well.  Think back to last Saturday.  Mizzou scored in under a minute, and Nebraska responded with a nice TD drive of its own.  Mizzou responded with another score, and Nebraska put together a decent drive that stalled out in Mizzou territory.  Mizzou kicked a FG, and then Nebraska had its first bad drive of the night.  Mizzou scored another TD, and despite having only one truly bad drive, NU found itself down 24-7.  OSU has an offense that can respond well and perform well in a shootout.  But one bad possession, and OSU could be down 10 points.  They haven't found themselves in that situation since last year's OU game, and that didn't end well.

In the end, Mizzou's offensive consistency makes the difference in what should really be a fun game to watch.  A turnover here, or a big special teams play there, and this is a nip-and-tuck game.  But for now, I'm saying Mizzou 52, Oklahoma State 28.

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