Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 6 weeks)

Tech whooped OSU, while Texas, OU and Missouri sleep-walked through easy wins...what's that do to the Big 12 Rankings?

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 239.4 2 227.0 +8.4
2 Oklahoma 230.9 1 226.2 +4.7
3 Texas Tech 230.4 3 222.6 +7.8
4 Missouri 214.7 5 218.3 -3.6
5 Oklahoma State 213.7 4 220.8 -7.1
6 Kansas 205.2 6 203.1 +2.1
7 Nebraska 202.9 7 198.1 +4.8
8 Kansas State 187.4 9 186.0 +1.4
9 Baylor 182.1 10 181.4 +0.7
10 Colorado 175.8 11 178.0 -2.2
11 Texas A&M 173.5 8 187.5 -14.0
12 Iowa State 161.8 12 163.3 -1.5

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

By not putting up a bazillion points against K-State, Missouri's score ended up dropping a smidge, but thanks to OSU's craptastic output against Texas Tech, Mizzou still managed to hop to #4 in the rankings.

The biggest positive mover this week was Texas.  The BTBS numbers were apparently quite impressed with the way they rediscovered their offensive rhythm, I guess.  Meanwhile, I guess ATM put up even less fight than most hapless opponents do against OU, and they were punished with a 14.0-point drop.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS

Offensive Success Rates+ (most efficient offense)

  1. Texas Tech (127.5)
  2. Missouri (116.6) (last week: 1)
  3. Texas (110.8)
  4. Nebraska (105.6)
  5. Kansas (105.5)
  6. Oklahoma State (104.8)
  7. Oklahoma (99.1)
  8. Kansas State (88.6)
  9. Iowa State (88.2)
  10. Texas A&M (87.7)
  11. Baylor (86.5)
  12. Colorado (76.5)

Offensive Points Per Play (most explosive offense)

  1. Texas Tech (123.6)
  2. Oklahoma (121.3)
  3. Texas (118.3)
  4. Oklahoma State (115.8)
  5. Missouri (114.1) (last week: 3)
  6. Kansas (102.5)
  7. Nebraska (100.6)
  8. Texas A&M (91.2)
  9. Kansas State (90.3)
  10. Baylor (78.9)
  11. Iowa State (75.7)
  12. Colorado (64.2)

Offensive S&P+ (best overall offense)

  1. Texas Tech (125.7)
  2. Missouri (115.4) (last week: 2)
  3. Texas (114.2)
  4. Oklahoma State (109.8)
  5. Oklahoma (109.7)
  6. Kansas (104.1)
  7. Nebraska (103.3)
  8. Kansas State (89.4)
  9. Texas A&M (89.3)
  10. Baylor (82.9)
  11. Iowa State (82.4)
  12. Colorado (70.7)

Offensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (115.8)
  2. Missouri (111.6) (last week: 3)
  3. Texas (110.9)
  4. Oklahoma State (109.4)
  5. Kansas (108.5)
  6. Nebraska (99.2)
  7. Oklahoma (98.5)
  8. Kansas State (96.7)
  9. Baylor (96.4)
  10. Iowa State (93.5)
  11. Texas A&M (87.7)
  12. Colorado (75.1)

Offensive Passing S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (127.6)
  2. Oklahoma (122.0)
  3. Texas (117.6)
  4. Oklahoma State (115.9)
  5. Missouri (115.0) (last week: 1)
  6. Nebraska (104.9)
  7. Kansas (100.9)
  8. Texas A&M (89.3)
  9. Kansas State (83.5)
  10. Iowa State (74.2)
  11. Baylor (71.5)
  12. Colorado (66.9)

Close-Game Offensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Texas Tech (129.3)
  2. Oklahoma (127.1)
  3. Texas (111.2)
  4. Missouri (109.4) (last week: 4)
  5. Kansas (106.0)
  6. Oklahoma State (106.0)
  7. Nebraska (99.1)
  8. Kansas State (89.9)
  9. Baylor (85.7)
  10. Iowa State (83.7)
  11. Texas A&M (82.5)
  12. Colorado (71.1)

Non-Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (115.9)
  2. Missouri (114.9) (last week: 1)
  3. Oklahoma (107.7)
  4. Oklahoma State (106.9)
  5. Kansas (106.0)
  6. Texas (103.1)
  7. Nebraska (102.3)
  8. Kansas State (96.8)
  9. Iowa State (88.3)
  10. Texas A&M (86.0)
  11. Baylor (85.7)
  12. Colorado (75.1)

Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (156.7)
  2. Texas (154.3)
  3. Oklahoma State (119.3)
  4. Oklahoma (115.3)
  5. Missouri (109.7) (last week: 4)
  6. Nebraska (104.8)
  7. Texas A&M (103.7)
  8. Kansas (96.4)
  9. Baylor (79.4)
  10. Kansas State (75.6)
  11. Iowa State (70.7)
  12. Colorado (63.9)

Redzone Offensive S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (119.4)
  2. Kansas (119.3)
  3. Texas Tech (107.6)
  4. Kansas State (106.6)
  5. Missouri (106.6) (last week: 3)
  6. Texas (106.1)
  7. Nebraska (103.9)
  8. Oklahoma State (94.6)
  9. Colorado (89.0)
  10. Texas A&M (87.4)
  11. Baylor (74.7)
  12. Iowa State (73.5)

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

Defensive Success Rates+

  1. Oklahoma (112.8)
  2. Texas (112.6)
  3. Nebraska (108.4)
  4. Colorado (105.9)
  5. Kansas State (103.6)
  6. Kansas (102.9)
  7. Missouri (102.9) (last week: 6)
  8. Oklahoma State (99.1)
  9. Texas Tech (98.6)
  10. Baylor (95.6)
  11. Texas A&M (85.8)
  12. Iowa State (83.1)

Defensive Points Per Play+

  1. Texas Tech (121.9)
  2. Texas (115.7)
  3. Baylor (109.4)
  4. Oklahoma State (109.3)
  5. Missouri (108.5) (last week: 4)
  6. Oklahoma (106.2)
  7. Colorado (103.7)
  8. Kansas (98.4)
  9. Kansas State (95.6)
  10. Nebraska (91.5)
  11. Texas A&M (87.3)
  12. Iowa State (72.6)

Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (114.0)
  2. Oklahoma (109.6)
  3. Texas Tech (108.2)
  4. Missouri (105.4) (last week: 4)
  5. Colorado (104.8)
  6. Oklahoma State (103.6)
  7. Baylor (101.6)
  8. Kansas (100.7)
  9. Nebraska (99.7)
  10. Kansas State (99.7)
  11. Texas A&M (86.5)
  12. Iowa State (77.9)

Defensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Texas (116.1)
  2. Oklahoma State (110.6)
  3. Missouri (109.7) (last week: 3)
  4. Baylor (106.7)
  5. Colorado (106.3)
  6. Oklahoma (104.2)
  7. Texas Tech (103.6)
  8. Kansas (101.8)
  9. Nebraska (96.7)
  10. Kansas State (93.3)
  11. Iowa State (88.1)
  12. Texas A&M (81.9)

Defensive Passing S&P+

  1. Texas (116.3)
  2. Texas Tech (114.0)
  3. Oklahoma (113.6)
  4. Kansas State (104.1)
  5. Colorado (102.8)
  6. Missouri (101.8) (last week: 8)
  7. Oklahoma State (101.6)
  8. Kansas (100.8)
  9. Nebraska (99.7)
  10. Baylor (94.7)
  11. Texas A&M (91.1)
  12. Iowa State (70.2)

Close-Game Defensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Texas (128.2)
  2. Oklahoma State (107.7)
  3. Missouri (105.3) (last week: 6)
  4. Colorado (104.7)
  5. Nebraska (103.9)
  6. Oklahoma (103.8)
  7. Texas Tech (101.1)
  8. Kansas (99.1)
  9. Kansas State (97.4)
  10. Baylor (96.4)
  11. Texas A&M (90.9)
  12. Iowa State (78.1)

Non-Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (109.4)
  2. Missouri (107.4) (last week: 3)
  3. Baylor (104.0)
  4. Kansas (103.4)
  5. Oklahoma (103.0)
  6. Nebraska (103.0)
  7. Colorado (102.6)
  8. Texas Tech (101.9)
  9. Oklahoma State (101.5)
  10. Kansas State (96.9)
  11. Texas A&M (91.4)
  12. Iowa State (83.6)

Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (141.0)
  2. Oklahoma (131.6)
  3. Texas (119.8)
  4. Colorado (111.3)
  5. Oklahoma State (109.7)
  6. Kansas State (105.8)
  7. Missouri (97.8) (last week: 7)
  8. Baylor (95.0)
  9. Kansas (93.2)
  10. Nebraska (90.2)
  11. Texas A&M (77.3)
  12. Iowa State (64.2)

Redzone Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (118.0)
  2. Texas (114.8)
  3. Baylor (108.5)
  4. Oklahoma (107.6)
  5. Nebraska (102.9)
  6. Kansas State (102.9)
  7. Kansas (101.9)
  8. Missouri (100.2) (last week: 2)
  9. Colorado (96.8)
  10. Texas A&M (95.4)
  11. Oklahoma State (88.1)
  12. Iowa State (78.9)

Some fun ups and downs for Mizzou this week.  K-State didn't make many trips into the redzone (by my count, only 2), but they scored easily both times, and Mizzou fell from #2 in Redzone Defense to #8 (showing how fluid some of these numbers are).  Meanwhile, by only passing for 290 yards, Mizzou fell from #1 to #5 in Passing Offense, which tells you something about what everybody else has done to K-State's secondary this year.

You also see incremental drops for Mizzou in the top defensive categories, due mostly to Brandon Banks' 93-yard run against Mizzou's scrubs in Q4.  However, thanks to Mizzou's domination of K-State and CU when the game was actually tight, Mizzou now has the #3 Close-Game Defense in the conference, which should give naysayers at least a small pause.  When this defense needs to make plays, it does just that.

Meanwhile, you can see how Tech is atop the standings right now.  Their defense is overall just average (#7 in Close-Game Defense), but they make plays when it counts--#1 in Redzone Defense, a dominant #1 in Passing Downs Defense--and they tackle well (#1 in Defensive Points Per Play allowed).  We'll see how sustainable all this is when they roll into Norman in a couple weeks, but kudos to them for now.

--

LAST WEEK'S PREDICTIONS

Texas Tech 33, Oklahoma State 26
Nebraska 33, Kansas 29
Oklahoma 36, Texas A&M 29
Missouri 42, Kansas State 22
Texas 38, Baylor 17
Colorado 25, Iowa State 17

Once again, the margins aren't anywhere near correct, but the projections were again 6-0 for the week, making them 12-0 after two weeks.  Granted, only about 3-4 of these games have actually been debatable, but still...12-0, baby!!

--

PREDICTIONS

November 15

Missouri 39, Iowa State 23
Texas 32, Kansas 27*
Nebraska 30, Kansas State 29
Baylor 29, Texas A&M 24
Oklahoma State 28, Colorado21

* Missouri's win, paired with KU's loss, clinches the North title for Missouri.

NU-KSU continues to flip from week to week.  Now, once again, NU's winning this one.

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (5-2)
Nebraska (4-3)
Kansas (3-4)
Colorado (2-5)
Kansas State (1-6)
Iowa State (0-7)
South
Texas Tech (6-0)
Texas (6-1)
Oklahoma (5-1)
Oklahoma State (5-2)
Baylor (2-5)
Texas A&M (2-5)

November 22

Oklahoma 39, Texas Tech 33
Kansas State 37, Iowa State 23

Resulting Standings

North
Missouri (5-2)
Nebraska (4-3)
Kansas (3-4)
Colorado (2-5)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (0-8)

South
Oklahoma (6-1)
Texas (6-1)
Texas Tech (6-1)
Oklahoma State (5-2)
Baylor (2-5)
Texas A&M (2-5)

And yet again, we head into Thanksgiving weekend with four different teams still eligible for the South title.

Oklahoma wins if a) they beat OSU and A&M beats Texas, or b) they beat OSU, Texas beats A&M and Tech beats Baylor and OU finishes highest in the BCS standings (they probably would, I think).

Texas wins if a) they beat A&M and Baylor beats Tech, or b) they beat A&M, OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor and UT finishes highest in the BCS standings (a possibility).

Texas Tech wins if a) they beat Baylor and OSU beats OU, or b) they beat Baylor, OU beats OSU and UT beats A&M and Tech finishes highest in the BCS standings (doubtful).

Oklahoma State wins if they beat OU, A&M beats UT and Baylor beats Tech, and OSU finishes highest in the BCS standings.

November 27

Texas 40, Texas A&M 17*

* Oklahoma State is eliminated from the South race

November 28

Nebraska 31, Colorado 17

November 29

Texas Tech 45, Baylor 16
Oklahoma 36, Oklahoma State 33
Missouri 36, Kansas 24

OU now defeats OSU, meaning we've got a 3-way tie at 7-1 in the South.  Being that a) OU will have defeated Tech, dropping the Raiders down in the polls, and b) OU will have defeated two more Top 15 teams (while Texas played just 6-6 Kansas and 4-8 ATM), I say the Sooners will end up with the highest BCS ranking of the three schools, which would be the tie-breaker since they split their matchups against each other.

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (6-2, 10-2)
Nebraska (5-3, 8-4)
Kansas (3-5, 6-6)
Colorado (2-6, 5-7)
Kansas State (2-6, 5-7)
Iowa State (0-8, 2-10)
South
Oklahoma (7-1, 11-1)
Texas Tech (7-1, 11-1)
Texas (7-1, 11-1)
Oklahoma State (5-3, 9-3)
Baylor (2-6, 4-8)
Texas A&M (2-6, 4-8)

December 6 - Big 12 Championship

Oklahoma 36, Missouri 31 (dammit)

OU once again thwarts Missouri's hopes and dreams.  Order is restored.  And in the meantime, that also leads a Big 12 team back to the BCS Championship game.

Bowls*

BCS Championship Game: Oklahoma (12-1) vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (11-1) vs Utah
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (11-1) vs Georgia
Holiday Bowl: Missouri (10-3) vs Arizona
Gator Bowl**: Oklahoma State (9-3) vs Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (8-4) vs Northwestern
Insight Bowl: Kansas (6-6) vs Illinois
Independence Bowl: no Big 12 team qualifies
Texas Bowl:
no Big 12 team qualifies

* To determine the matchups, I once again looked at ESPN's current projections and took whoever Bruce Feldman had.  It's very much shaping up to be Big 12 vs SEC in the championship game.

** There's very much still a possibility that the Gator Bowl takes a 6-6 or 7-5 Notre Dame team over 9-3 OSU or 10-3 Missouri, but...I refuse to allow that to happen in my own projections.

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