Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 7 weeks)

No big marquee game this week, but one thing's for certain regarding the BTBS numbers: if only one game is played, everybody's numbers change.  So let's see what happened with everybody winning easily and Texas Tech and Oklahoma watching on TV.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 242.0
1 239.4 +2.4
2 Texas Tech 233.1
3 230.4 +2.7
3 Oklahoma 228.8
2 230.9 -2.1
4 Oklahoma State 219.0
5 213.7 +5.3
5 Missouri 217.0
4 214.7 +2.3
6 Nebraska 210.1
7 202.9 +7.2
7 Kansas 203.7
6 205.2 -1.5
8 Baylor 187.8
9 182.1 +5.7
9 Kansas State 178.3
8 187.4 -9.1
10 Colorado 170.1
10 175.8 -5.7
11 Texas A&M 169.9
11 173.5 -3.6
12 Iowa State 164.4
12 161.8 +2.6

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

I should note that I've all but decided to change the "Close Game" parameters.  Currently, they are straight forward--if the scoring margin is within less than 17 points, it's a "close game".  If not, it's not.  I'm thinking about changing that to "within less than 21 or 24" for the first half, then maintaining "within less than 17" for the second half.

I guess Texas Tech's former opponents did better than Oklahoma's, as Tech managed to go up 2.7 points on bye while Oklahoma fell 2.1.  I can't say I understand how that happened--OU's only two opponents who haven't played Tech are Nebraska and Baylor, who both played well last week--but it did, and I'm going to live with it.  Needless to say, they're close enough that the winner of Saturday night's game in Norman will indeed be at least #2 next Monday...maybe #1.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS

Offensive Success Rates+ (most efficient offense)

  1. Texas Tech (129.4)
  2. Missouri (117.2) (last week: 2)
  3. Texas (110.6)
  4. Nebraska (107.4)
  5. Oklahoma State (105.8)
  6. Kansas (103.5)
  7. Oklahoma (100.1)
  8. Iowa State (91.9)
  9. Texas A&M (87.4)
  10. Baylor (86.6)
  11. Kansas State (86.0)
  12. Colorado (75.7)

Offensive Points Per Play (most explosive offense)

  1. Texas Tech (126.3)
  2. Oklahoma (123.1)
  3. Oklahoma State (117.1)
  4. Texas (116.6)
  5. Missouri (115.0) (Last Week: 5)
  6. Nebraska (104.7)
  7. Kansas (95.9)
  8. Texas A&M (91.2)
  9. Kansas State (85.6)
  10. Baylor (83.9)
  11. Iowa State (79.5)
  12. Colorado (64.4)

Offensive S&P+ (best overall offense)

  1. Texas Tech (127.9)
  2. Missouri (116.2) (last week: 2)
  3. Texas (113.3)
  4. Oklahoma (111.1)
  5. Oklahoma State (110.9)
  6. Nebraska (106.1)
  7. Kansas (99.9)
  8. Texas A&M (89.2)
  9. Iowa State (86.2)
  10. Kansas State (85.8)
  11. Baylor (85.3)
  12. Colorado (70.4)

Offensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (116.8)
  2. Missouri (115.4) (last week: 2)
  3. Oklahoma State (109.9)
  4. Texas (109.2)
  5. Kansas (106.0)
  6. Nebraska (105.5)
  7. Oklahoma (99.3)
  8. Iowa State (93.9)
  9. Baylor (93.2)
  10. Kansas State (93.1)
  11. Texas A&M (86.2)
  12. Colorado (76.4)

Offensive Passing S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (130.3)
  2. Oklahoma (123.9)
  3. Oklahoma State (118.7)
  4. Texas (117.8)
  5. Missouri (113.9) (last week: 5)
  6. Nebraska (106.1)
  7. Kansas (95.2)
  8. Texas A&M (89.6)
  9. Kansas State (80.1)
  10. Iowa State (80.0)
  11. Baylor (78.8)
  12. Colorado (65.6)

Close-Game Offensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Texas Tech (131.7)
  2. Oklahoma (128.3)
  3. Oklahoma State (110.2)
  4. Texas (109.2)
  5. Missouri (109.2) (Last Week: 4)
  6. Nebraska (104.4)
  7. Kansas (101.8)
  8. Baylor (90.0)
  9. Kansas State (86.0)
  10. Iowa State (83.9)
  11. Texas A&M (81.1)
  12. Colorado (69.7)

Non-Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (119.4)
  2. Missouri (117.6) (last week: 2)
  3. Oklahoma (110.3)
  4. Oklahoma State (106.9)
  5. Nebraska (104.1)
  6. Texas (103.3)
  7. Kansas (100.0)
  8. Kansas State (93.0)
  9. Iowa State (90.1)
  10. Texas A&M (86.7)
  11. Baylor (85.9)
  12. Colorado (74.8)

Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (153.9)
  2. Texas (146.8)
  3. Oklahoma State (123.9)
  4. Oklahoma (113.1)
  5. Nebraska (110.0)
  6. Missouri (105.4) (last week: 5)
  7. Texas A&M (100.5)
  8. Kansas (98.1)
  9. Baylor (86.8)
  10. Iowa State (78.4)
  11. Kansas State (73.1)
  12. Colorado (64.3)

Redzone Offensive S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (120.6)
  2. Kansas (113.5)
  3. Texas (113.1)
  4. Texas Tech (109.4)
  5. Missouri (107.3) (last week: 5)
  6. Nebraska (106.9)
  7. Kansas State (104.5)
  8. Oklahoma State (94.5)
  9. Texas A&M (88.1)
  10. Colorado (83.0)
  11. Baylor (79.4)
  12. Iowa State (72.8)

Not much changed here.  Missouri is #1 in the North in every category but Passing Downs S&P+, but they've no doubt given up ground to the South juggernauts.  Meanwhile, Nebraska continues to slowly creep up the list in just about every category.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

Defensive Success Rates+

  1. Texas (113.4)
  2. Oklahoma (112.2)
  3. Nebraska (111.6)
  4. Colorado (105.2)
  5. Kansas (103.5)
  6. Missouri (102.9) (last week: 7)
  7. Kansas State (101.1)
  8. Oklahoma State (100.5)
  9. Texas Tech (98.0)
  10. Baylor (95.7)
  11. Texas A&M (86.1)
  12. Iowa State (84.2)

Defensive Points Per Play+

  1. Texas (124.8)
  2. Texas Tech (121.2)
  3. Oklahoma State (111.3)
  4. Baylor (109.6)
  5. Missouri (107.9) (last week: 5)
  6. Oklahoma (105.8)
  7. Colorado (102.3)
  8. Kansas (99.4)
  9. Nebraska (94.5)
  10. Kansas State (90.7)
  11. Texas A&M (85.3)
  12. Iowa State (74.6)

Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (118.5)
  2. Oklahoma (109.1)
  3. Texas Tech (107.6)
  4. Oklahoma State (105.1)
  5. Missouri (104.3) (last week: 4)
  6. Colorado (103.8)
  7. Nebraska (102.8)
  8. Baylor (101.9)
  9. Kansas (101.6)
  10. Kansas State (95.9)
  11. Texas A&M (85.8)
  12. Iowa State (79.5)

Defensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Texas (118.6)
  2. Missouri (111.7) (last week: 3)
  3. Oklahoma State (108.0)
  4. Baylor (107.6)
  5. Colorado (105.4)
  6. Oklahoma (104.6)
  7. Kansas (104.0)
  8. Texas Tech (103.7)
  9. Nebraska (101.2)
  10. Kansas State (89.2)
  11. Iowa State (87.0)
  12. Texas A&M (83.8)

Defensive Passing S&P+

  1. Texas (121.0)
  2. Texas Tech (113.0)
  3. Oklahoma (112.5)
  4. Oklahoma State (104.8)
  5. Nebraska (102.1)
  6. Kansas State (101.5)
  7. Colorado (101.4)
  8. Kansas (100.8)
  9. Missouri (99.1) (last week: 6)
  10. Baylor (95.1)
  11. Texas A&M (87.9)
  12. Iowa State (74.2)

Close-Game Defensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Texas (132.8)
  2. Oklahoma State (108.8)
  3. Missouri (107.8) (last week: 3)
  4. Nebraska (105.7)
  5. Kansas (101.9)
  6. Texas Tech (101.5)
  7. Oklahoma (100.5)
  8. Colorado (100.4)
  9. Baylor (97.8)
  10. Kansas State (92.2)
  11. Texas A&M (88.8)
  12. Iowa State (80.5)

Non-Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (116.9)
  2. Missouri (107.6) (last week: 2)
  3. Nebraska (106.7)
  4. Baylor (103.4)
  5. Kansas (103.3)
  6. Oklahoma State (102.7)
  7. Colorado (102.3)
  8. Oklahoma (100.9)
  9. Texas Tech (100.1)
  10. Kansas State (93.9)
  11. Texas A&M (91.1)
  12. Iowa State (83.6)

Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (144.4)
  2. Oklahoma (137.2)
  3. Texas (118.2)
  4. Oklahoma State (111.4)
  5. Colorado (107.7)
  6. Kansas State (100.7)
  7. Baylor (98.4)
  8. Kansas (96.9)
  9. Missouri (94.7) (last week: 7)
  10. Nebraska (92.4)
  11. Texas A&M (75.3)
  12. Iowa State (69.1)

Redzone Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (123.0)
  2. Texas Tech (117.3)
  3. Baylor (108.6)
  4. Missouri (107.4) (last week: 8)
  5. Oklahoma (106.9)
  6. Nebraska (104.8)
  7. Kansas (98.4)
  8. Kansas State (98.1)
  9. Colorado (97.5)
  10. Oklahoma State (95.2)
  11. Texas A&M (92.7)
  12. Iowa State (78.1)

A fun week for Missouri.  They solidified their Close-Game credentials with another easy "TCB" performance against Iowa State, and they improved in both Rushing S&P+ and Redzone S&P+...but they ended up giving up a lot of yards overall when the game wasn't close, and they gave up a lot of ground in some categories--Passing S&P+ and Passing Downs S&P+ in particular.

--

LAST WEEK'S PREDICTIONS

Missouri 39, Iowa State 23
Texas 32, Kansas 27*
Nebraska 30, Kansas State 29
Baylor 29, Texas A&M 24
Oklahoma State 28, Colorado21

17-0, baby!  Again, the predicted scoring margins are nowhere close to accurate--so don't use these projections for betting, boys and girls--but gambling's illegal anyway, right?  At least when you're not on a "boat"?

--

PREDICTIONS

November 22

Oklahoma 35, Texas Tech 34
Kansas State 35, Iowa State 27

The OU-Tech projection has tightened considerably.  The actual projected score here is 34.1 to 34.0.  I personally think OU will take this one by 10-14, but the projections have been more accurate than I am.

Resulting Standings

North
Missouri (5-2)
Nebraska (4-3)
Kansas (3-4)
Colorado (2-5)
Kansas State (2-6)
Iowa State (0-8)

South
Oklahoma (6-1)
Texas (6-1)
Texas Tech (6-1)
Oklahoma State (5-2)
Baylor (2-5)
Texas A&M (2-5)

And as always, we head into Thanksgiving weekend with four different teams still eligible for the South title.

Oklahoma wins if a) they beat OSU and A&M beats Texas, or b) they beat OSU, Texas beats A&M and Tech beats Baylor and OU finishes highest in the BCS standings (they probably would, I think).

Texas wins if a) they beat A&M and Baylor beats Tech, or b) they beat A&M, OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor and UT finishes highest in the BCS standings (a possibility).

Texas Tech wins if a) they beat Baylor and OSU beats OU, or b) they beat Baylor, OU beats OSU and UT beats A&M and Tech finishes highest in the BCS standings (doubtful).

Oklahoma State wins if they beat OU, A&M beats UT and Baylor beats Tech, and OSU finishes highest in the BCS standings.

November 27

Texas 39, Texas A&M 15

November 28

Nebraska 35, Colorado 17

November 29

Texas Tech 44, Baylor 17
Oklahoma State 33, Oklahoma 29
Missouri 34, Kansas 24

Once again, OU-OSU has flipped.  Now the 'Pokes take the game, and Texas Tech takes the division.

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (6-2, 10-2)
Nebraska (5-3, 8-4)
Kansas (3-5, 6-6)
Colorado (2-6, 5-7)
Kansas State (2-6, 5-7)
Iowa State (0-8, 2-10)
South
Texas Tech (7-1, 11-1)
Texas (7-1, 11-1)
Oklahoma State (6-2, 10-2)
Oklahoma (6-2, 10-2)
Baylor (2-6, 4-8)
Texas A&M (2-6, 4-8)

December 6 - Big 12 Championship

Texas Tech 32, Missouri 29

I really am liking Mizzou's chances in this scenario--Texas Tech will be facing every ounce of the pressure that Missouri was facing last year heading into Championship week.  But alas, the numbers disagree...for now.

Bowls*

BCS Championship Game: Texas Tech (12-1) vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (11-1) vs Utah
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma (10-2) vs Georgia
Holiday Bowl: Missouri (10-3) vs Arizona
Alamo Bowl**: Oklahoma State (10-2) vs Northwestern
Sun Bowl: Nebraska (8-4) vs California
Insight Bowl: Kansas (6-6) vs Minnesota
Independence Bowl: no Big 12 team qualifies
Texas Bowl:
no Big 12 team qualifies

* As always, to determine the matchups, I looked at ESPN's current projections and took whoever Bruce Feldman had.  It's very much shaping up to be Big 12 vs SEC in the championship game.

** I'm giving in.  Just because life is unfair, I'm now assuming that a 7-5 Notre Dame team will get the Gator Bowl over a 10-3 Missouri team or 10-2 Oklahoma State team.

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