Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (with 1 week to go)

Only two games last week, but as I've stressed before, one game can affect all the rankings...

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 241.6
1 242.0 -0.4
2 Oklahoma 240.9
3 228.8 +12.1
3 Texas Tech 226.4
2 233.1 -6.7
4 Missouri 218.1
5 217.0 +1.1
5 Oklahoma State 217.7
4 219.0 -1.3
6 Nebraska 209.5
6 210.1 -0.6
7 Kansas 205.1
7 203.7 +1.4
8 Baylor 188.5
8 187.8 +0.7
9 Kansas State 179.9
9 178.3 +1.6
10 Colorado 172.0
10 170.1 +1.9
11 Texas A&M 169.9
11 169.9 0.0
12 Iowa State 166.7
12 164.4 +2.3

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

No surprises here.  Biggest positive mover: Oklahoma.  Biggest negative mover: Texas Tech.  Shocking.  Neither K-State nor Iowa State moved much, suggesting their contest pretty much went exactly as expected.

Category rankings and projections after the jump.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS

Offensive Success Rates+ (most efficient offense)

  1. Texas Tech (124.6)
  2. Missouri (117.3) (last week: 2)
  3. Texas (110.2)
  4. Nebraska (107.0)
  5. Oklahoma State (105.4)
  6. Kansas (103.3)
  7. Oklahoma (102.7)
  8. Iowa State (94.0)
  9. Texas A&M (87.2)
  10. Baylor (87.0)
  11. Kansas State (86.5)
  12. Colorado (75.7)

Offensive Points Per Play (most explosive offense)

  1. Oklahoma (128.6)
  2. Texas Tech (121.6)
  3. Missouri (115.5) (Last Week: 5)
  4. Oklahoma State (115.4)
  5. Texas (115.1)
  6. Nebraska (103.6)
  7. Kansas (95.2)
  8. Texas A&M (90.5)
  9. Kansas State (85.5)
  10. Baylor (84.4)
  11. Iowa State (81.4)
  12. Colorado (64.7)

Offensive S&P+ (best overall offense)

  1. Texas Tech (121.6)
  2. Missouri (116.5) (last week: 2)
  3. Oklahoma (114.9)
  4. Texas (112.4)
  5. Oklahoma State (110.0)
  6. Nebraska (103.6)
  7. Kansas (95.2)
  8. Texas A&M (90.5)
  9. Kansas State (85.5)
  10. Baylor (84.4)
  11. Iowa State (81.4)
  12. Colorado (64.7)

Offensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Missouri (116.2) (Last week: 2)
  2. Texas Tech (113.2)
  3. Oklahoma State (109.3)
  4. Texas (108.8)
  5. Kansas (106.0)
  6. Nebraska (105.7)
  7. Oklahoma (103.8)
  8. Baylor (93.9)
  9. Iowa State (92.5)
  10. Kansas State (90.9)
  11. Texas A&M (86.5)
  12. Colorado (76.9)

Offensive Passing S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (128.4)
  2. Texas Tech (125.2)
  3. Oklahoma State (117.1)
  4. Texas (116.6)
  5. Missouri (113.7) (last week: 5)
  6. Nebraska (104.7)
  7. Kansas (94.4)
  8. Texas A&M (88.5)
  9. Iowa State (83.9)
  10. Kansas State (82.1)
  11. Baylor (78.9)
  12. Colorado (65.5)

Close-Game Offensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Oklahoma (130.5)
  2. Texas Tech (127.0)
  3. Texas (109.6)
  4. Oklahoma State (109.5)
  5. Missouri (109.1) (Last Week: 5)
  6. Nebraska (103.2)
  7. Kansas (102.2)
  8. Baylor (90.2)
  9. Kansas State (90.1)
  10. Iowa State (86.9)
  11. Texas A&M (80.2)
  12. Colorado (69.6)

Non-Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Missouri (118.0) (last week: 2)
  2. Texas Tech (114.2)
  3. Oklahoma (113.5)
  4. Oklahoma State (106.4)
  5. Nebraska (103.8)
  6. Texas (103.1)
  7. Kansas (100.1)
  8. Iowa State (92.1)
  9. Kansas State (90.7)
  10. Baylor (86.8)
  11. Texas A&M (86.7)
  12. Colorado (75.1)

Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (151.6)
  2. Texas (144.4)
  3. Oklahoma State (122.5)
  4. Oklahoma (116.2)
  5. Nebraska (108.1)
  6. Missouri (105.2) (last week: 6)
  7. Texas A&M (98.6)
  8. Kansas (96.4)
  9. Baylor (85.5)
  10. Iowa State (80.1)
  11. Kansas State (78.5)
  12. Colorado (64.2)

Redzone Offensive S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (118.3)
  2. Kansas (113.4)
  3. Texas (112.9)
  4. Texas Tech (108.6)
  5. Missouri (107.7) (last week: 5)
  6. Nebraska (106.8)
  7. Kansas State (99.8)
  8. Oklahoma State (94.6)
  9. Texas A&M (88.0)
  10. Colorado (84.1)
  11. Baylor (79.8)
  12. Iowa State (76.4)

Texas Tech's loss was Missouri's gain, as they moved ahead of or closed in on the Red Raiders in quite a few categories.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

Defensive Success Rates+

  1. Oklahoma (119.0)
  2. Texas (112.5)
  3. Nebraska (112.1)
  4. Colorado (105.9)
  5. Kansas (103.8)
  6. Missouri (102.2) (last week: 6)
  7. Oklahoma State (99.6)
  8. Kansas State (98.4)
  9. Baylor (96.5)
  10. Texas Tech (95.5)
  11. Texas A&M (86.2)
  12. Iowa State (83.9)

Defensive Points Per Play+

  1. Texas (123.8)
  2. Oklahoma (113.8)
  3. Texas Tech (112.3)
  4. Baylor (110.7)
  5. Oklahoma State (110.5)
  6. Missouri (109.3) (last week: 5)
  7. Colorado (103.4)
  8. Kansas (100.0)
  9. Nebraska (95.2)
  10. Kansas State (88.7)
  11. Texas A&M (85.7)
  12. Iowa State (74.6)

Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (117.6)
  2. Oklahoma (116.5)
  3. Missouri (105.4) (last week: 5)
  4. Colorado (104.7)
  5. Oklahoma State (104.3)
  6. Nebraska (103.4)
  7. Texas Tech (102.9)
  8. Baylor (102.8)
  9. Kansas (102.0)
  10. Kansas State (93.6)
  11. Texas A&M (86.0)
  12. Iowa State (79.3)

Defensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Texas (118.4)
  2. Missouri (111.8) (last week: 3)
  3. Baylor (108.7)
  4. Oklahoma (108.5)
  5. Oklahoma State (107.4)
  6. Colorado (105.4)
  7. Kansas (104.4)
  8. Nebraska (101.6)
  9. Texas Tech (97.7)
  10. Kansas State (90.1)
  11. Iowa State (88.4)
  12. Texas A&M (84.0)

Defensive Passing S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (122.6)
  2. Texas (119.7)
  3. Texas Tech (107.6)
  4. Oklahoma State (103.7)
  5. Nebraska (103.2)
  6. Colorado (103.0)
  7. Kansas (101.5)
  8. Missouri (101.1) (last week: 9)
  9. Baylor (96.2)
  10. Kansas State (95.8)
  11. Texas A&M (87.9)
  12. Iowa State (72.9)

Close-Game Defensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Texas (132.0)
  2. Oklahoma (110.5)
  3. Missouri (109.1) (last week: 3)
  4. Oklahoma State (108.2)
  5. Nebraska (106.2)
  6. Kansas (102.9)
  7. Colorado (102.4)
  8. Texas Tech (99.4)
  9. Baylor (98.3)
  10. Kansas State (89.8)
  11. Texas A&M (89.7)
  12. Iowa State (79.8)

Non-Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (116.1)
  2. Oklahoma (108.3)
  3. Missouri (107.1) (last week: 2)
  4. Nebraska (107.1)
  5. Baylor (104.5)
  6. Kansas (103.6)
  7. Colorado (102.9)
  8. Oklahoma State (102.0)
  9. Texas Tech (96.2)
  10. Kansas State (91.7)
  11. Texas A&M (91.0)
  12. Iowa State (85.0)

Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (141.5)
  2. Texas Tech (139.4)
  3. Texas (116.4)
  4. Oklahoma State (110.5)
  5. Colorado (110.1)
  6. Baylor (98.6)
  7. Kansas State (98.2)
  8. Kansas (97.2)
  9. Missouri (96.9) (last week: 9)
  10. Nebraska (93.2)
  11. Texas A&M (75.1)
  12. Iowa State (65.4)

Redzone Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (121.8)
  2. Texas Tech (118.5)
  3. Missouri (108.5) (last week: 4)
  4. Baylor (108.3)
  5. Oklahoma (108.2)
  6. Nebraska (103.1)
  7. Colorado (98.4)
  8. Kansas (97.8)
  9. Oklahoma State (95.9)
  10. Kansas State (93.9)
  11. Texas A&M (92.1)
  12. Iowa State (81.0)

Once again, a decent amount of movement considering there were only two games on Saturday.  As expected, Oklahoma surged in quite a few categories, and again it appears that Missouri made a net gain thanks to Texas Tech.

--

LAST WEEK'S PREDICTIONS

Oklahoma 35, Texas Tech 34
Kansas State 35, Iowa State 27

Unlike the New England Patriots of '07, my projections are now 19-0!  Sweet.  As always, the margins were far from accurate, but straight up is all that matters, right?  I will say now, though, that I doubt the projections will be sporting a perfect record after this coming week...

--

PREDICTIONS

Title scenarios:

Oklahoma wins if a) they beat OSU and A&M beats Texas, or b) they beat OSU, Texas beats A&M, Tech beats Baylor and OU finishes highest in the BCS standings (they probably would, I think).

Texas wins if a) they beat A&M and Baylor beats Tech, or b) they beat A&M, OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor and UT finishes highest in the BCS standings (still a possibility).

Texas Tech wins if a) they beat Baylor and OSU beats OU, or b) they beat Baylor, OU beats OSU and UT beats A&M and Tech finishes highest in the BCS standings (tremendously doubtful).

November 27

Texas 39, Texas A&M 15

November 28

Nebraska 34, Colorado 17

November 29

Texas Tech 42, Baylor 19
Oklahoma State 31, Oklahoma 30
Missouri 34, Kansas 25

OSU still has the slightest of edges in the Bedlam Battle, apparently.  I personally think OU will handle the 'Pokes, but I've been wrong before...and the projections have not.

Resulting Standings
North
Missouri (6-2, 10-2)
Nebraska (5-3, 8-4)
Kansas (3-5, 6-6)
Colorado (2-6, 5-7)
Kansas State (2-6, 5-7)
Iowa State (0-8, 2-10)
South
Texas Tech (7-1, 11-1)
Texas (7-1, 11-1)
Oklahoma State (6-2, 10-2)
Oklahoma (6-2, 10-2)
Baylor (2-6, 4-8)
Texas A&M (2-6, 4-8)

So thanks to the OSU win that I don't see happening, a humbled Texas Tech team moves on to the Big 12 title game...

December 6 - Big 12 Championship

Missouri 32, Texas Tech 31

...where the numbers have flipped in Missouri's favor!  GO FREAKING OKLAHOMA STATE!

(That also puts Texas in the BCS Championship game, strangely enough.)

Bowls*

BCS Championship Game: Texas (11-1) vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Missouri (11-2) vs USC**
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma (10-2) vs Mississippi
Holiday Bowl: Texas Tech (11-2) vs Oregon
Gator Bowl***: Nebraska (8-4) vs Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State (10-2) vs Northwestern
Insight Bowl: Kansas (6-6) vs Wisconsin
Independence Bowl: no Big 12 team qualifies
Texas Bowl:
no Big 12 team qualifies

* As always, to determine the matchups, I looked at ESPN's current projections and took whoever Bruce Feldman had.  It's very much shaping up to be Big 12 vs SEC in the championship game.

** Ouch.

*** Thanks to Syracuse, Notre Dame is out of the picture for the Gator Bowl...and thanks to their ability to travel, Nebraska becomes the likely candidate, I think.  Feldman thinks it goes to West Virginia (thereby sending a Big 12 team to the Sun Bowl), but I'm still thinking NU is a possibility.

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