Big 12 'BTBS' Rankings and Projections (after 5 weeks)

We're switching up the order this week!  Instead of the 'BTBS Box Scores' piece, we're going to do the Rankings on Monday and the 'Box Scores' (combined with my MU-BU analysis) on Tuesday.  So there you go.  Onward!

We have a new leader in the overall rankings below.  Texas' performance on Saturday allowed OU to creep by them.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Oklahoma 227.0 2 226.3 +0.7
2 Texas 226.2 1 238.1 -11.9
3 Texas Tech 222.6 3 225.5 -2.9
4 Oklahoma State 220.8 5 218.0 +2.8
5 Missouri 218.3 4 224.8 -6.5
6 Kansas 203.1 7 194.9 +8.2
7 Nebraska 198.1 6 203.5 -5.4
8 Texas A&M 187.5 9 182.5 +5.0
9 Kansas State 186.0 8 189.0 -3.0
10 Baylor 181.4 10 178.2 +3.2
11 Colorado 178.0 11 167.3 +10.7
12 Iowa State 163.3 12 165.3 -2.0

    * Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

    Colorado had the week's best improvement, simply because they were not completely horrific.  Needless to say, CU's and ISU's scores are so low that they don't have to do much to improve a decent amount.  Meanwhile, Texas fell a decent amount due to the same reason.  Not only did they play like crap for most of the first half against Tech, but they were also so high last week that their numbers had almost no choice but to fall.

    The most confusing move is that of Texas Tech.  They stayed in the #3 slot, and they're much closer to #1 than they were last week, but while they caused Texas to fall a lot, their own score fell a smidge too.  I'd guess that has as much to do with the worthless performances of Kansas State and Nebraska (two former opponents) as much as anything.

    Category rankings and projections after the jump.

    OFFENSIVE RANKINGS

    Offensive Success Rates+ (most efficient offense)

    1. Missouri (123.1) (Last Week: 1)
    2. Texas Tech (122.6)
    3. Texas (113.5)
    4. Kansas (103.5)
    5. Nebraska (101.9)
    6. Oklahoma State (101.1)
    7. Oklahoma (100.2)
    8. Baylor (92.5)
    9. Texas A&M (90.5)
    10. Kansas State (89.9)
    11. Iowa State (89.1)
    12. Colorado (72.8)

    Offensive Points Per Play (most explosive offense)

    1. Texas (121.9)
    2. Texas Tech (121.8)
    3. Missouri (120.2) (Last Week: 2)
    4. Oklahoma State (118.9)
    5. Oklahoma (117.2)
    6. Kansas (103.8)
    7. Texas A&M (98.8)
    8. Nebraska (95.8)
    9. Kansas State (92.2)
    10. Baylor (76.4)
    11. Iowa State (75.9)
    12. Colorado (55.3)

    Offensive S&P+ (best overall offense)

    1. Texas Tech (122.2)
    2. Missouri (121.8) (Last Week: 1)
    3. Texas (117.3)
    4. Oklahoma State (109.1)
    5. Oklahoma (108.2)
    6. Kansas (103.7)
    7. Nebraska (99.1)
    8. Texas A&M (94.3)
    9. Kansas State (90.9)
    10. Baylor (84.9)
    11. Iowa State (83.1)
    12. Colorado (64.8)

    Offensive Rushing S&P+

    1. Texas Tech (108.9)
    2. Texas (108.0)
    3. Missouri (105.3) (Last Week: 3)
    4. Kansas (103.7)
    5. Oklahoma State (97.9)
    6. Kansas State (89.9)
    7. Iowa State (89.0)
    8. Oklahoma (87.9)
    9. Nebraska (87.6)
    10. Baylor (86.9)
    11. Texas A&M (83.4)
    12. Colorado (66.5)

    Offensive Passing S&P+

    1. Missouri (131.4) (Last Week: 1)
    2. Oklahoma (130.4)
    3. Oklahoma State (128.8)
    4. Texas Tech (128.8)
    5. Texas (125.4)
    6. Nebraska (107.9)
    7. Kansas (104.0)
    8. Texas A&M (100.9)
    9. Kansas State (91.7)
    10. Baylor (82.9)
    11. Iowa State (79.1)
    12. Colorado (63.1)

    Close-Game Offensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

    1. Texas Tech (126.5)
    2. Oklahoma (123.9)
    3. Texas (116.4)
    4. Missouri (115.2) (Last Week: 3)
    5. Kansas (107.0)
    6. Oklahoma State (105.4)
    7. Kansas State (98.0)
    8. Nebraska (97.2)
    9. Baylor (89.2)
    10. Texas A&M (83.6)
    11. Iowa State (82.4)
    12. Colorado (63.9)

    Non-Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

    1. Missouri (120.7) (Last Week: 1)
    2. Texas Tech (115.3)
    3. Kansas (108.4)
    4. Oklahoma (108.3)
    5. Texas (108.0)
    6. Oklahoma State (105.5)
    7. Nebraska (98.4)
    8. Kansas State (97.1)
    9. Texas A&M (91.6)
    10. Iowa State (86.9)
    11. Baylor (84.1)
    12. Colorado (66.5)

    Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

    1. Texas (147.1)
    2. Texas Tech (142.9)
    3. Oklahoma State (120.4)
    4. Missouri (116.0) (Last Week: 3)
    5. Oklahoma (107.1)
    6. Texas A&M (104.3)
    7. Nebraska (100.5)
    8. Baylor (89.2)
    9. Kansas (87.5)
    10. Kansas State (78.6)
    11. Iowa State (78.4)
    12. Colorado (64.0)

    Redzone Offensive S&P+

    1. Oklahoma (156.3)
    2. Kansas (146.5)
    3. Missouri (142.6) (Last Week: 5)
    4. Texas (141.2)
    5. Nebraska (134.5)
    6. Kansas State (128.1)
    7. Texas Tech (125.0)
    8. Oklahoma State (116.7)
    9. Texas A&M (111.8)
    10. Baylor (104.5)
    11. Colorado (103.5)
    12. Iowa State (93.6)

    DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

    Defensive Success Rates+

    1. Colorado (112.9)
    2. Nebraska (110.3)
    3. Oklahoma State (109.9)
    4. Oklahoma (109.6)
    5. Kansas (104.4)
    6. Missouri (104.0) (Last Week: 3)
    7. Texas Tech (98.7)
    8. Texas (97.2)
    9. Kansas State (96.6)
    10. Baylor (93.1)
    11. Texas A&M (88.9)
    12. Iowa State (85.5)

    Defensive Points Per Play+

    1. Oklahoma State (126.1)
    2. Texas Tech (115.2)
    3. Colorado (110.9)
    4. Missouri (104.0) (Last Week: 4)
    5. Texas (103.9)
    6. Baylor (101.2)
    7. Kansas (100.6)
    8. Texas A&M (98.6)
    9. Oklahoma (96.8)
    10. Kansas State (90.6)
    11. Nebraska (84.3)
    12. Iowa State (73.9)

    Defensive S&P+

    1. Oklahoma State (116.8)
    2. Colorado (111.9)
    3. Texas Tech (105.5)
    4. Missouri (104.0) (Last Week: 2)
    5. Oklahoma (103.4)
    6. Kansas (102.6)
    7. Texas (100.2)
    8. Nebraska (96.7)
    9. Baylor (96.6)
    10. Kansas State (93.6)
    11. Texas A&M (93.2)
    12. Iowa State (79.9)

    Defensive Rushing S&P+

    1. Oklahoma State (113.0)
    2. Colorado (110.7)
    3. Missouri (110.0) (Last Week: 1)
    4. Texas (106.8)
    5. Texas Tech (101.9)
    6. Kansas (101.0)
    7. Baylor (100.4)
    8. Oklahoma (99.1)
    9. Nebraska (95.3)
    10. Iowa State (89.6)
    11. Texas A&M (87.9)
    12. Kansas State (82.5)

    Defensive Passing S&P+

    1. Oklahoma State (120.4)
    2. Colorado (111.6)
    3. Texas Tech (109.1)
    4. Oklahoma (107.8)
    5. Kansas (104.9)
    6. Texas (103.0)
    7. Kansas State (101.1)
    8. Missouri (99.8) (Last Week: 7)
    9. Texas A&M (97.6)
    10. Nebraska (94.1)
    11. Baylor (90.7)
    12. Iowa State (71.0)

    Close-Game Defensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

    1. Oklahoma State (115.4)
    2. Colorado (114.1)
    3. Texas (109.8)
    4. Texas A&M (104.0)
    5. Oklahoma (103.2)
    6. Missouri (103.1) (Last Week: 4)
    7. Nebraska (100.9)
    8. Texas Tech (96.1)
    9. Kansas (96.1)
    10. Baylor (92.2)
    11. Kansas State (88.0)
    12. Iowa State (80.9)

    Non-Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

    1. Oklahoma State (109.5)
    2. Colorado (109.1)
    3. Missouri (106.7) (Last Week: 2)
    4. Kansas (103.0)
    5. Texas (102.1)
    6. Texas Tech (101.6)
    7. Nebraska (99.2)
    8. Baylor (98.2)
    9. Oklahoma (97.7)
    10. Texas A&M (95.4)
    11. Kansas State (90.7)
    12. Iowa State (87.0)

    Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

    1. Oklahoma State (127.4)
    2. Texas Tech (124.7)
    3. Oklahoma (109.8)
    4. Colorado (105.0)
    5. Kansas State (98.8)
    6. Kansas (97.0)
    7. Missouri (93.1) (Last Week: 5)
    8. Baylor (91.0)
    9. Texas (88.9)
    10. Texas A&M (82.4)
    11. Nebraska (81.5)
    12. Iowa State (59.8)

    Redzone Defensive S&P+

    1. Texas Tech (121.0)
    2. Missouri (113.9) (Last Week: 1)
    3. Oklahoma State (112.7)
    4. Oklahoma (109.5)
    5. Texas (108.1)
    6. Colorado (105.3)
    7. Baylor (104.4)
    8. Kansas (101.3)
    9. Kansas State (98.8)
    10. Nebraska (98.4)
    11. Texas A&M (91.0)
    12. Iowa State (76.1)

    --

    LAST WEEK'S PREDICTIONS

    Texas Tech 37, Texas 25
    Missouri 32, Baylor 22
    Kansas 36, Kansas State 27
    Oklahoma 41, Nebraska 25
    Oklahoma State 39, Iowa State 14
    Texas A&M 31, Colorado 13

    Last week's predictions went 6-0 straight-up, but only (I think) 2-4 against the spread.  For whatever that's worth.  It appears the projections don't really pick high margins of victory, which hurt since the spread was pretty obscene for MU-BU and OSU-ISU...

    --

    PREDICTIONS

    November 8

    Texas Tech 33, Oklahoma State 26
    Nebraska 33, Kansas 29
    Oklahoma 36, Texas A&M 29
    Missouri 42, Kansas State 22
    Texas 38, Baylor 17
    Colorado 25, Iowa State 17

    The scores have changed slightly, but no result changes from last week's projections.

    Resulting Standings
    North
    Missouri (4-2)
    Nebraska (3-3)
    Kansas (3-3)
    Colorado (2-4)
    Kansas State (1-5)
    Iowa State (0-6)
    South
    Texas Tech (6-0)
    Texas (5-1)
    Oklahoma (5-1)
    Oklahoma State (4-2)
    Texas A&M (2-4)
    Baylor (1-5)

    November 15

    Missouri 40, Iowa State 24
    Texas 32, Kansas 30*
    Kansas State 31, Nebraska 30
    Baylor 27, Texas A&M 26
    Oklahoma State 28, Colorado 17

    * Missouri's win, paired with KU's loss, clinches the North title for Missouri.  Nebraska can still tie them, but MU wins the tie-breaker.

    KU's strong performance against KSU, combined with UT's loss to Tech, means the KU-UT projection has gotten a lot closer.  Meanwhile, projections for the two bottom-feeder games (in bold) have flipped.

    Resulting Standings
    North
    Missouri (5-2)
    Nebraska (3-4)
    Kansas (3-4)
    Kansas State (2-5)
    Colorado (2-5)
    Iowa State (0-7)
    South
    Texas Tech (6-0)
    Texas (6-1)
    Oklahoma (5-1)
    Oklahoma State (5-2)
    Baylor (2-5)
    Texas A&M (2-5)

    November 22

    Oklahoma 36, Texas Tech 34
    Kansas State 38, Iowa State 23

    Resulting Standings

    North
    Missouri (5-2)
    Nebraska (3-4)
    Kansas (3-4)
    Kansas State (3-5)
    Colorado (2-5)
    Iowa State (0-8)

    South
    Oklahoma (6-1)
    Texas (6-1)
    Texas Tech (6-1)
    Oklahoma State (5-2)
    Baylor (2-5)
    Texas A&M (2-5)

    Once again, we head into Thanksgiving weekend with four different teams still eligible for the South title.

    Oklahoma wins if a) they beat OSU and A&M beats Texas, or b) they beat OSU, Texas beats A&M and Tech beats Baylor and OU finishes highest in the BCS standings (they probably would, I think).

    Texas wins if a) they beat A&M and Baylor beats Tech, or b) they beat A&M, OU beats OSU and Tech beats Baylor and UT finishes highest in the BCS standings (a possibility).

    Texas Tech wins if a) they beat Baylor and OSU beats OU, or b) they beat Baylor, OU beats OSU and UT beats A&M and Tech finishes highest in the BCS standings (doubtful).

    Oklahoma State wins if they beat OU, A&M beats UT and Baylor beats Tech, and OSU finishes highest in the BCS standings.

    November 27

    Texas 37, Texas A&M 21*

    * Oklahoma State is eliminated from the South race

    November 28

    Nebraska 29, Colorado 15

    November 29

    Texas Tech 43, Baylor 17
    Oklahoma State 37, Oklahoma 28*
    Missouri 34, Kansas 28

    * OU's loss means Tech and Texas tie for the division title, and Tech wins the head-to-head tie-breaker.

    Resulting Standings
    North
    Missouri (6-2, 10-2)
    Nebraska (4-4, 7-5)
    Kansas (3-5, 6-6)
    Kansas State (3-5, 6-6)
    Colorado (2-6, 5-7)
    Iowa State (0-8, 2-10)
    South
    Texas Tech (7-1, 11-1)
    Texas (7-1, 11-1)
    Oklahoma State (6-2, 10-2)
    Oklahoma (6-2, 10-2)
    Baylor (2-6, 4-8)
    Texas A&M (2-6, 4-8)

    December 6 - Big 12 Championship

    Texas Tech 33, Missouri 30

    Bowls*

    Fiesta Bowl: Texas Tech (12-1) vs Utah**
    Rose Bowl: Texas (11-1) vs USC
    Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma (10-2) vs Georgia
    Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State (10-2) vs Arizona
    Gator Bowl: MissourI (10-3)*** vs Florida State
    Alamo Bowl: Nebraska (7-5) vs Minnesota
    Independence Bowl: Kansas (6-6) vs Arkansas State (!!)
    Insight Bowl: Kansas State (6-6) vs Northwestern
    Texas Bowl: nobody from the Big 12 qualifies

    * To determine the matchups, I once again looked at ESPN's current projections and took whoever Bruce Feldman had..  I now think Florida would be the one-loss team to make the title game, so Tech has been relegated to the Fiesta Bowl.

    ** Again, I realize the Gator will probably take Notre Dame, but again...screw that.

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