Mizzou-Baylor (and the rest of the Big 12): Beyond the Box Score

Alright, we're combining the "MU-__ Beyond the Box Score" piece with the "Big 12 BTBS Box Scores" piece...I've bolded the super-duper interesting parts of each box score...

Mizzou
(31)


Baylor
(28)

% Close = 100.0%
51.4% Field Position %
48.6%
80.8% Leverage %
75.9%
TOTAL
73 Plays 79
31.56 EqPts 29.73
63.0% Success Rate 53.2%
0.43 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.38
1.062 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.908
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays same
same EqPts same
same Success Rate same
same PPP same
same S&P same
RUSHING
9.45 EqPts 11.85
57.6% Success Rate 57.5%
0.29 PPP 0.30
0.862 S&P 0.871
3.43 Line Yards/carry
3.20
PASSING
22.10 EqPts 17.88
67.5% Success Rate 48.7%
0.55 PPP 0.46
1.228 S&P 0.946
NON-PASSING DOWNS
69.5% Success Rate 56.7%
0.43 PPP 0.29
1.120 S&P 0.856
PASSING DOWNS
35.7% Success Rate 42.1%
0.46 PPP 0.65
0.820 S&P 1.073
TURNOVERS
3 Number 2
9.39 Points Lost 5.50
4.93 Points Given 4.27
14.32 Total T/O Pts 9.77
-4.55 Turnover Pts Margin +4.55
1.315 Q1 S&P 0.842
1.183 Q2 S&P 0.953
0.790 Q3 S&P 1.041
0.807 Q4 S&P 0.702
0.970 1st Down S&P 0.739
1.158 2nd Down S&P 1.066
1.156 3rd Down S&P 0.741
  • How was Baylor able to see more offensive success than expected on Saturday?  Success on 2nd downs.  They were okay on 1st downs, but their 2nd down success (which has been a strength of theirs all year, for some reason) kept them out of tough 3rd downs.
  • How was Baylor able to run so effectively on Saturday?  It appears the answer is in the trenches.  Baylor's 3.40 Line Yards per carry was higher than their 2.83 season average, and MUCH higher than Missouri's 2.18 season average allowed.  This is something to watch as pass rush specialists Brian "God" Coulter and Jacquies Smith start to see more playing time over run stuffer Tommy Chavis (it's also something to keep in mind next year, when God and Jacq become two of our defensive staples).  While the pass rush is improved by the addition of Coulter and Smith, they might not be as good at holding the line as Chavis is.
  • It goes without saying that the first two quarters went more or less as expected.  Turnovers prevented Missouri from probably having a 17- or 21-point lead, but they were dominating in S&P.  And then came the third quarter, where Baylor turned the game on its ear.  Remember last year, when Missouri humiliated team after team in Q3 (sans the Big 12 title game)?  While the offense is still more-or-less holding up its end of the bargain (#2 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play), the defense hasn't been as dominant (only #7 in Q3 S&P+ in Big 12 play).  Mizzou has been fine in Q3 in a lot of games--Texas, Colorado, Nebraska--but Q3 efforts against OSU and Baylor turned the game around against Mizzou.  Is that coaching?  Execution?  Luck?  No idea.
  • Taking turnovers into account, the scoring margin actually favors Baylor.  OUCH.  Not at all what we expected to see here, but...survive and advance!  The North title still runs right through Columbia, and if NU beats KU on Saturday, the North title could actually be clinched before the trip to Arrowhead.

Alright, a bit more BU-MU analysis after the jump, then it's on to the other Big 12 games...

Here's a review of who I named the "Key Players" last week...

Key Players: Baylor

QB Hot Tub Griffin III

Griffin had 17.88 EqPts passing and 5.40 EqPts rushing (at a 0.954-S&P clip).  His first career INT was obviously costly, and it's not like they have him throwing too many risky passes, but still...he passed this test with flying colors.  Pass.

RB Jay Finley

Finley had 14 of the BU RBs' 27 carries.  His S&P was only 0.786 (with a rather impressive 58% success rate), and he managed only 3.01 EqPts, but his game-tying Q4 TD reception was huge.  Stil, though, Baylor needed a hair more from him, I guess.  Pass.

LB Joe Pawelek

Pawelek was in on 13 tackles (7 solos) and a TD-saving INT.  I mentioned last week that I wasn't sure if he was actually a good LB or if he was making plays in a "Somebody has to make tackles, even on a bad defense" way.  He impressed me.  Jordan Lake also passed this test, though if his hands were a little better, he wouldn't have dropped what could have been a game-winning INT.  Thank goodness his hands aren't a little better, huh?  PASS.

KR Mikail Baker

Baker had a 33-yard kickoff return, and two others totalling 44 yards, but he was not a difference-maker.  Fail.

Key Players: Mizzou

TE Chase Coffman

How about 10 catches, 7.54 EqPts, a 1.454 S&P, and two more ridiculous TDs that apparently the refs reviewed on replay simply so they could watch it again?  Does that sound like a difference-maker to you?  PASS.

OL Colin Brown (i.e. the offensive line)

I don't believe Brown had any false starts this week, which is a good sign.  As a whole, the O-Line gave up 1 sack and 2 QB hurries in 41 pass attempts--that's certainly not bad.  It sounded like Daniel was having to run around quite a bit in the second half, and that Baylor's line was playing well, but without visual proof I'll go to the numbers and suggest that Mizzou's line was average to above average, and nothing more.  Neither.

LB Brock Christopher, LB Sean Weatherspoon, FS William Moore, or whoever ends up shadowing Hot Tub Griffin III the most

Griffin's rushing totals were not a difference maker, though it sounded like Mizzou's determination not to let Griffin's legs beat them opened up the short passing game in a major way.  Oh, and do you remember William Moore's name being called by Mike Kelly more than once?  Because I don't.  Fail.

P Jake Harry

Harry stepped onto the field only once, Mizzou won.  Ahh, science.  PASS.

--

BIG 12 BTBS BOX SCORES

Texas
(33)


Tech
(39)

% Close = 87.4%
31.4% Field Position %
68.6%
69.4% Leverage %
75.3%
TOTAL
62 Plays 81
22.90 EqPts 31.66
38.7% Success Rate 59.3%
0.37 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.39
0.756 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.983
CLOSE GAME ONLY
45 Plays 80
18.63 EqPts 31.19
44.4% Success Rate 58.8%
0.41 PPP 0.39
0.858 S&P 0.978
RUSHING
6.32 EqPts 7.65
41.7% Success Rate 61.5%
0.26 PPP 0.29
0.680 S&P 0.910
2.19 Line Yards/carry
3.81
PASSING
16.57 EqPts 24.01
36.8% Success Rate 58.2%
0.44 PPP 0.44
0.805 S&P 1.018
NON-PASSING DOWNS
44.2% Success Rate 63.9%
0.41 PPP

0.37

0.852 S&P 1.012
PASSING DOWNS
26.3% Success Rate 45.0%
0.28 PPP 0.45
0.540 S&P 0.895
TURNOVERS

2

Number 1
0.87 Points Lost 0.94
7.00 Points Given 3.41
7.87 Total T/O Pts 4.35
-3.52 Turnover Pts Margin +3.52
0.283 Q1 S&P 0.873
0.469 Q2 S&P 1.246
0.651 Q3 S&P 0.625
1.744 Q4 S&P 1.121
0.924 1st Down S&P 1.135
0.578 2nd Down S&P 0.904
0.657 3rd Down S&P 0.716
  • What I said last week: "Meanwhile, if Colt McCoy wins the Heisman this year, you can thank the constantly successful tightrope act of thriving on Passing Downs.  Yet again, UT was better on Passing Downs than Non-Passing Downs, and while you have to worry that the magic could suddenly, violently disappear (it did for Chase Daniel for about 6 quarters, long enough to kill his Heisman chances and his team's title chances), it might not."
  • What I say this week: BAM.  Passing Downs KILLED Texas.  Murdered them.
  • What also murdered Texas: playing like ass in the first half.  You can ask Missouri--playing like ass for an entire first half against a Top 10 team on the road?  Not a good idea.  Just sayin'.
  • An underrated facet of Tech's victory was the way they dominated the field position battle.  Even when they didn't put together a scoring drive, they usually moved the ball well enough to keep Texas deep inside their own field position.  It led directly to the safety that kicked off the scoring, and despite Malcolm Williams' star-turning 91-yard TD, field position benefited Tech greatly.
  • In all, Tech's defense isn't dominant, and it doesn't rank tremendously well among other Big 12 teams, but they tackle really well, and they're much better than previous Tech defenses at stopping the big play.  This was evident here, as aside from Williams' aforementioned TD, Texas was not eating up large chunks of yardage at a time.

Nebraska
(28)


Oklahoma
(62)

% Close = 9.8%
32.1% Field Position %
67.9%
68.3% Leverage %
74.3%
TOTAL
63 Plays 70
26.68 EqPts 41.17
38.1% Success Rate 47.1%
0.42 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.59
0.805 S&P (Success + PPP) 1.060
CLOSE GAME ONLY
3 Plays 10
0.53 EqPts 10.61
33.3% Success Rate 60.0%
0.18 PPP 1.06
0.508 S&P 1.661
RUSHING
14.21 EqPts 15.25
38.2% Success Rate 42.5%
0.42 PPP 0.38
0.800 S&P 0.806
2.37 Line Yards/carry
3.02
PASSING
12.47 EqPts 25.93
37.9% Success Rate 53.3%
0.43 PPP 0.86
0.809 S&P 1.398
NON-PASSING DOWNS
44.2% Success Rate 48.1%
0.38 PPP 0.54
0.824 S&P 1.020
PASSING DOWNS
25.0% Success Rate 44.4%
0.51 PPP 0.73
0.763 S&P 1.173
TURNOVERS
4 Number 1
5.37 Points Lost 4.41
17.50 Points Given 1.18
22.87 Total T/O Pts 5.59
-17.28 Turnover Pts Margin +17.28
0.223 Q1 S&P 1.472
1.168 Q2 S&P 1.103
0.850 Q3 S&P 1.081
0.757 Q4 S&P 0.150
0.456 1st Down S&P 0.844
0.955 2nd Down S&P 1.122
1.329 3rd Down S&P 1.335
  • 9.8%!  We have a new record for "fastest time between when a game started and when it was officially over".  Nebraska ran 3 plays when the game was within 17 points or less!  THREE!
  • Needless to say, when you're playing in Norman, it's a bad idea to give up a 17-point Turnover Points Margin.

K-State
(21)


Kansas
(52)

% Close = 20.1%
42.2% Field Position %
57.8%
61.6% Leverage %
71.2%
TOTAL
73 Plays 66
22.34 EqPts 37.64
34.3% Success Rate 53.0%
0.31 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.57
0.649 S&P (Success + PPP) 1.101
CLOSE GAME ONLY
10 Plays 18
1.49 EqPts 15.98
30.0% Success Rate 55.6%
0.15 PPP 0.89
0.449 S&P 1.443
RUSHING
10.76 EqPts 25.39
37.9% Success Rate 60.0%
0.37 PPP 0.635
0.750 S&P 1.235
2.36 Line Yards/carry
4.27
PASSING
11.58 EqPts 12.25
31.8% Success Rate 42.3%
0.26 PPP 0.47
0.581 S&P 0.894
NON-PASSING DOWNS
40.0% Success Rate 61.7%
0.33 PPP 0.66
0.727 S&P 1.273
PASSING DOWNS
25.0% Success Rate 31.6%
0.27 PPP 0.36
0.523 S&P 0.674
TURNOVERS
5 Number 1
13.11 Points Lost 4.34
16.50 Points Given 0.90
29.61 Total T/O Pts 5.24
-24.37 Turnover Pts Margin +24.37
0.351 Q1 S&P 1.418
0.601 Q2 S&P 0.946
0.554 Q3 S&P 1.150
0.970 Q4 S&P 0.755
0.486 1st Down S&P 1.131
0.525 2nd Down S&P 0.829
0.932 3rd Down S&P 1.586
  • Most weeks, a game that was only close 20% of the time would be the big 'blowout' winner, but not this week.  KSU did win the "suicide by turnovers" award for the week, though, so congrats for that!
  • Jake Sharp has been running roughshod over opponents for the last few games, and I'm wondering if it's actually him, of if the O-line has finally clicked.  A 4.28 Line Yards per carry suggests the latter.
  • For K-State, a confusing per-down line.  They were atrocious on 1st and 2nd downs, but downright decent on 3rd downs.
  • I'm thinking Josh Freeman should go ahead and go pro.  It's pretty clear that another year in this system isn't going to do anything for his "Man, does he look great in a uniform!" draft stock--really, it can only hurt it...unless K-State fires Ron Prince and hires Norm Chow or something.  Which isn't going to happen.  A 0.581 Passing S&P is pretty awful considering how iffy KU has been against the pass.  I don't care if his receivers really are awful...a big-time pro prospect should be able to do better than that.

Iowa St
(17)


OSU
(59)

% Close = 37.0%
51.4% Field Position %
48.6%
68.5% Leverage %
83.1%
TOTAL
73 Plays 65
20.29 EqPts 49.87
43.8% Success Rate 56.9%
0.28 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.77
0.716 S&P (Success + PPP) 1.336
CLOSE GAME ONLY
24 Plays 27
6.67 EqPts 22.83
45.8% Success Rate 59.3%
0.28 PPP 0.85
0.736 S&P 1.438
RUSHING
9.35 EqPts 19.26
47.2% Success Rate 52.8%
0.26 PPP 0.53
0.732 S&P 1.063
2.32 Line Yards/carry
3.58
PASSING
10.94 EqPts 30.61
40.5% Success Rate 62.1%
0.30 PPP 1.056
0.701 S&P 1.676
NON-PASSING DOWNS
54.0% Success Rate 57.4%
0.35 PPP 0.70
0.889 S&P 1.274
PASSING DOWNS
21.7% Success Rate 54.6%
0.12 PPP 1.10
0.342 S&P 1.643
TURNOVERS
3 Number 2
8.85 Points Lost 5.22
5.57 Points Given 3.31
14.42 Total T/O Pts 8.53
-5.89 Turnover Pts Margin +5.89
0.703 Q1 S&P 1.041
0.684 Q2 S&P 1.599
0.627 Q3 S&P 2.085
0.877 Q4 S&P 0.930
0.896 1st Down S&P 1.387
0.638 2nd Down S&P 1.457
0.551 3rd Down S&P 0.760
  • Hey, Gene Chizik: you were a defensive coordinator, right?  Just checking.  Because your defense just gave up over 1 Point Per Play for every pass OSU threw on Saturday.  That's amazingly bad.
  • That's really all I've got.  Every stat on the page is some variation of "ISU offense = okay.  ISU defense = amazingly bad."

Colorado
(17)


A&M
(24)

% Close = 100.0%
60.4% Field Position %
39.6%
71.4% Leverage %
59.4%
TOTAL
77 Plays 64
21.91 EqPts 20.82
44.2% Success Rate 34.4%
0.28 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.33
0.726 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.669
CLOSE GAME ONLY
same Plays same
same EqPts same
same Success Rate same
same PPP same
same S&P same
RUSHING
14.75 EqPts 6.26
50.0% Success Rate 35.7%
0.35 PPP 0.22
0.851 S&P 0.581
3.05 Line Yards/carry
2.62
PASSING
7.15 EqPts 14.56
37.1% Success Rate 33.3%
0.20 PPP 0.40
0.576 S&P 0.738
NON-PASSING DOWNS
50.9% Success Rate 36.8%
0.31 PPP 0.32
0.815 S&P 0.693
PASSING DOWNS
27.3% Success Rate 30.8%
0.23 PPP 0.33
0.504 S&P 0.634
TURNOVERS
3 Number 1
8.58 Points Lost 2.48
4.77 Points Given 2.41
13.35 Total T/O Pts 4.89
-8.46 Turnover Pts Margin +8.46
0.764 Q1 S&P 0.333
0.707 Q2 S&P 0.468
0.377 Q3 S&P 1.455
0.951 Q4 S&P 0.211
0.850 1st Down S&P 0.646
0.687 2nd Down S&P 0.847
0.486 3rd Down S&P 0.436
  • Turnovers = difference in this game. 
  • That, and the 3rd quarter. 
  • And the Colorado offense's complete lack of explosiveness.  0.28 PPP is pretty damn bad.
  • Long-term, Rodney Stewart's gruesome broken leg might be a good thing for Colorado.  He should recover just fine, and now Darrell Scott will have some more opportunities to prove if he's going to be worth a damn anytime soon.
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