Big 12 'BTBS' (mostly) Final Rankings

Here's something fun: of the 10 Big 12 defenses that took the field last weekend, nine of them got smoked.  Only that of Texas (and, technically, Iowa State and K-State, who didn't play) did not.  So when you get to the defensive rankings and DON'T see that Mizzou fell in every category after Saturday's KU game, that's why.

Mizzou's defense wasn't alone--pretty much every D-lineman, LB, or DB in the Big 12 got roasted like TurBaconDucKen with a side of green bean casserole last weekend.  That doesn't make more palatable the thought of Kerry Meier torching poor Justin Garrett yet again, but I'm just throwing it out there.  Our defense was no better or worse than 90% of the league last week.

Overall Big 12 Rankings*

Rank Team Score Last Wk's Rank Last Wk's Score Change
1 Texas 238.3
1 241.6 -2.7
2 Oklahoma 234.9
2 240.9 -6.0
3 Oklahoma State 218.2
5 217.7 +0.5
4 Texas Tech 217.0
3 226.4 -9.4
5 Missouri 216.1
4 218.1 -2.0
6 Nebraska 206.5
6 209.5 -3.0
7 Kansas 204.3
7 205.1 -0.8
8 Baylor 192.8
8 188.5 +4.3
9 Kansas State 178.3
9 179.9 -1.6
10 Colorado 174.5
10 172.0 +2.5
11 Texas A&M 169.5
11 169.9 -0.4
12 Iowa State 166.1
12 166.7 -0.6

* Once again, the overall rankings are derived by combining each team's Close-Game Offensive S&P+ with their Close-Game Defensive S&P+.  200 = average.  >200 = good.  <200 = bad.  From week to week, teams move up not only on the strength/weakness of their own performance, but on the strength/weakness of the performances of the teams they've played to date.

Biggest (Good) Mover: Baylor, for almost beating Tech.

Biggest (Bad) Mover: Texas Tech.  The most interesting downward move, however, was OU dropping six points.  We'll explore where that drop came from after the jump.

Category rankings and Big 12 Title Game projection after the jump.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS

Offensive Success Rates+ (most efficient offense)

  1. Texas Tech (121.5)
  2. Missouri (115.6) (last week: 2)
  3. Nebraska (107.6)
  4. Oklahoma State (107.6)
  5. Texas (107.4)
  6. Oklahoma (103.9)
  7. Kansas (102.9)
  8. Iowa State (93.5)
  9. Baylor (89.5)
  10. Kansas State (85.8)
  11. Texas A&M (84.5)
  12. Colorado (76.6)

Offensive Points Per Play (most explosive offense)

  1. Oklahoma (129.2)
  2. Texas Tech (117.1)
  3. Oklahoma State (116.6)
  4. Missouri (115.1) (Last Week: 3)
  5. Texas (113.7)
  6. Nebraska (101.6)
  7. Kansas (97.5)
  8. Texas A&M (87.8)
  9. Baylor (85.3)
  10. Kansas State (84.7)
  11. Iowa State (80.5)
  12. Colorado (66.7)

Offensive S&P+ (best overall offense)

  1. Texas Tech (119.4)
  2. Oklahoma (115.7)
  3. Missouri (115.4) (last week: 3)
  4. Oklahoma State (111.8)
  5. Texas (110.3)
  6. Nebraska (104.8)
  7. Kansas (100.4)
  8. Baylor (87.5)
  9. Iowa State (87.4)
  10. Texas A&M (86.0)
  11. Kansas State (85.2)
  12. Colorado (71.9)

Offensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Missouri (115.6) (Last week: 1)
  2. Texas Tech (112.4)
  3. Oklahoma State (108.9)
  4. Texas (107.9)
  5. Nebraska (105.0)
  6. Oklahoma (104.6)
  7. Kansas (103.9)
  8. Baylor (96.6)
  9. Iowa State (91.6)
  10. Kansas State (90.1)
  11. Texas A&M (83.2)
  12. Colorado (78.1)

Offensive Passing S&P+

  1. Oklahoma (128.9)
  2. Oklahoma State (121.4)
  3. Texas Tech (119.5)
  4. Texas (113.7)
  5. Missouri (112.7) (last week: 5)
  6. Nebraska (105.0)
  7. Kansas (97.5)
  8. Texas A&M (86.2)
  9. Iowa State (83.5)
  10. Kansas State (81.4)
  11. Baylor (78.7
  12. Colorado (67.2)

Close-Game Offensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Oklahoma (128.1)
  2. Texas Tech (120.9)
  3. Oklahoma State (110.1)
  4. Missouri (107.4) (Last Week: 5)
  5. Texas (106.3)
  6. Nebraska (103.7)
  7. Kansas (102.3)
  8. Baylor (91.7)
  9. Kansas State (89.5)
  10. Iowa State (86.5)
  11. Texas A&M (78.6)
  12. Colorado (71.6)

Non-Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Missouri (118.2) (last week: 2)
  2. Oklahoma (112.4)
  3. Texas Tech (111.1)
  4. Oklahoma State (108.4)
  5. Nebraska (104.4)
  6. Texas (101.3)
  7. Kansas (100.8)
  8. Iowa State (91.5)
  9. Baylor (90.1)
  10. Kansas State (89.7)
  11. Texas A&M (83.1)
  12. Colorado (77.1)

Passing Downs Offensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (148.0)
  2. Texas (137.3)
  3. Oklahoma State (123.4)
  4. Oklahoma (122.3)
  5. Nebraska (103.0)
  6. Missouri (102.0) (last week: 6)
  7. Kansas (98.4)
  8. Texas A&M (97.5)
  9. Baylor (81.4)
  10. Kansas State (78.9)
  11. Iowa State (78.8)
  12. Colorado (64.6)

Redzone Offensive S&P+

  1. Kansas (116.7)
  2. Texas (114.9)
  3. Oklahoma (113.7)
  4. Missouri (109.6) (last week: 5)
  5. Texas Tech (107.7)
  6. Kansas State (98.6)
  7. Nebraska (98.4)
  8. Oklahoma State (97.1)
  9. Baylor (86.2)
  10. Texas A&M (84.1)
  11. Colorado (83.8)
  12. Iowa State (76.8)

These numbers are based on play-by-play statistics, and on a per-play basis, Missouri did quite well Saturday, particularly in Non-Passing Downs.  Needless to say, NPD success is a ginormous factor for this coming game at Arrowhead--if Mizzou can move the ball on first downs, they'll have a fighting chance against the Sooners.  If they don't, it will get embarrassing fast.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS

Defensive Success Rates+

  1. Oklahoma (116.1)
  2. Texas (114.5)
  3. Nebraska (111.1)
  4. Kansas (105.2)
  5. Colorado (103.7)
  6. Missouri (103.1) (last week: 6)
  7. Oklahoma State (98.5)
  8. Kansas State (97.8)
  9. Baylor (97.8)
  10. Texas Tech (93.2)
  11. Texas A&M (88.0)
  12. Iowa State (83.7)

Defensive Points Per Play+

  1. Texas (125.9)
  2. Baylor (112.0)
  3. Oklahoma (111.5)
  4. Oklahoma State (109.5)
  5. Texas Tech (109.0)
  6. Missouri (109.3) (last week: 6)
  7. Colorado (105.1)
  8. Kansas (100.2)
  9. Nebraska (92.1)
  10. Kansas State (87.9)
  11. Texas A&M (85.2)
  12. Iowa State (74.4)

Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (119.6)
  2. Oklahoma (113.9)
  3. Missouri (105.6) (last week: 3)
  4. Colorado (104.3)
  5. Baylor (104.0)
  6. Oklahoma State (103.4)
  7. Kansas (102.8)
  8. Nebraska (101.3)
  9. Texas Tech (100.1)
  10. Kansas State (92.9)
  11. Texas A&M (86.7)
  12. Iowa State (79.1)

Defensive Rushing S&P+

  1. Texas (121.8)
  2. Missouri (115.7) (last week: 3)
  3. Oklahoma (108.6)
  4. Baylor (108.2)
  5. Oklahoma State (106.1)
  6. Kansas (105.4)
  7. Colorado (104.5)
  8. Nebraska (99.7)
  9. Texas Tech (93.9)
  10. Kansas State (89.5)
  11. Iowa State (88.1)
  12. Texas A&M (84.5)

Defensive Passing S&P+

  1. Texas (121.1)
  2. Oklahoma (118.6)
  3. Texas Tech (106.6)
  4. Oklahoma State (103.1)
  5. Colorado (102.6)
  6. Kansas (102.1)
  7. Nebraska (100.9)
  8. Missouri (99.4) (last week: 8)
  9. Baylor (99.4)
  10. Kansas State (94.8)
  11. Texas A&M (88.6)
  12. Iowa State (72.7)

Close-Game Defensive S&P+ (used for Big 12 Overall Rankings)

  1. Texas (132.0)
  2. Missouri (108.7) (last week: 3)
  3. Oklahoma State (108.1)
  4. Oklahoma (106.8)
  5. Colorado (102.9)
  6. Nebraska (102.8)
  7. Kansas (102.0)
  8. Baylor (101.0)
  9. Texas Tech (96.1)
  10. Texas A&M (90.8)
  11. Kansas State (88.8)
  12. Iowa State (79.6)

Non-Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (120.0)
  2. Missouri (109.0) (last week: 3)
  3. Baylor (106.2)
  4. Oklahoma (106.0)
  5. Nebraska (104.5)
  6. Kansas (103.1)
  7. Oklahoma State (103.0)
  8. Colorado (101.0)
  9. Texas Tech (92.9)
  10. Texas A&M (91.9)
  11. Kansas State (90.8)
  12. Iowa State (85.3)

Passing Downs Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas Tech (143.4)
  2. Oklahoma (137.7)
  3. Colorado (115.7)
  4. Texas (114.5)
  5. Oklahoma State (103.4)
  6. Kansas (99.8)
  7. Kansas State (98.5)
  8. Baylor (97.5)
  9. Missouri (95.7) (last week: 9)
  10. Nebraska (92.5)
  11. Texas A&M (77.1)
  12. Iowa State (64.4)

Redzone Defensive S&P+

  1. Texas (128.0)
  2. Baylor (108.8)
  3. Colorado (108.8)
  4. Texas Tech (108.6)
  5. Missouri (107.7) (Last Week: 3)
  6. Oklahoma (105.2)
  7. Nebraska (101.8)
  8. Oklahoma State (101.2)
  9. Kansas (95.9)
  10. Kansas State (91.0)
  11. Texas A&M (90.4)
  12. Iowa State (80.1)

We'll talk about this more tomorrow when we look at MU-KU in detail, but I'm assuming I know the first question you'll ask if you made it this far is the same question I addressed at the start: How in the hell did Mizzou actually go UP in the rankings?

At least, that's the first question I asked.

Here's the three-part answer: a) because, from start to finish, Mizzou's defense only fell slightly below what was expected (unfortunately, those shortcomings were in Q4 and on Passing Downs); b) a bunch of offenses that Mizzou shut down (relatively speaking)--Colorado, Nebraska, Oklahoma State--had humongous days on Saturday, upping their averages and giving Mizzou more leeway; and c) because just about everybody's defense sucked last week.  Mizzou's Close-Game Defensive S&P+ actually fell slightly (from 109.1 to 108.7), but everybody else's (except Texas') fell more, bumping Mizzou up to #2 in that category.  Strange but true.  Thanksgiving was a weekend for offense, and the MU-KU game was no different.

Just thought I'd throw that out there for the "What's it going to take to get Matt Eberflus off of this staff???" crowd.

LAST WEEK'S PREDICTIONS

Texas 39, Texas A&M 15
Nebraska 34, Colorado 17
Texas Tech 42, Baylor 19
Oklahoma State 31, Oklahoma 30
Missouri 34, Kansas 25

The quest for a perfect season fell a week short.  As I mentioned last week, I thought OU would handle OSU, and I really thought the OSU > OU pick would end up wrong.  Of course, I thought the MU > KU pick would be right on the money.  So after a 19-0 start, the projections have to settle for a 22-2 finish...with one game remaining, of course.

And naturally, I hope the projections end up 22-3.

--

PREDICTIONS

December 6 - Big 12 Championship

Oklahoma 33, Missouri 30

Because OU's defense underachieved almost as much as Missouri's did, this projection remained rather close.  As we know by now, scoring margins aren't the strength of this projection system (something I'll work on in the offseason), so all that's important here is that OU wins.

Bowls*

BCS Championship Game: Oklahoma (12-1) vs Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (11-1) vs Ohio State
Cotton Bowl: Texas Tech (11-1) vs Ole Miss
Holiday Bowl: Oklahoma State (9-3) vs Oregon
Gator Bowl: Nebraska (8-4)** vs Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl: Missouri (9-4) vs Northwestern
Insight Bowl: Kansas (7-5) vs Minnesota
Independence Bowl: no Big 12 team qualifies
Texas Bowl:
no Big 12 team qualifies

* As always, to determine the matchups, I looked at ESPN's current projections and took whoever Bruce Feldman had.  It's very much shaping up to be Big 12 vs SEC in the championship game.

** I have to figure the Gator almost certainly takes the Huskers here, especially with only a half-game now separating Mizzou and Nebraska (sigh).  A bad week for Mizzou--they fell from Fiesta in last week's projections to Alamo in this week's.  But hey...playing Northwestern will at least mean Mizzou will have a very good chance of still reaching the 10-win plateau.

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