Mizzou-Illinois: Statistical Masochism

I still don't have a game-to-game name for this piece, but...yeah, this one named itself.  Let's see exactly went wrong!

Mizzou Illini
Points Per Minute
1.48 1.88
Points Per Possession (PPP)
0.86 1.10
Points Per Shot (PPS)
0.95 1.47
2-PT FG% 47.7% 62.9%
3-PT FG% 11.1% 43.8%
FT% 78.6% 71.4%
Mizzou Illini
Assists 11 22
Steals 9 4
Turnovers 12 17
(Assists + Steals) / TO 1.67 1.53
Mizzou Illini
Expected Offensive Rebounds 14 8
Offensive Rebounds 10 8
Eq. Rebound Margin -4 0

When the stock market is trending up, and then there's a sudden steep drop on a given day, they call it a "correction."  Braggin' Rights: a big correction.  Mizzou isn't as good as they looked against California, and this was the game where the stats corrected themselves.

It was also something else: a massive missed opportunity.  This game doesn't prove that Mizzou isn't NCAA-worthy or anything like that--in the end, just about every team in the NCAA Tournament (aside from the top couple of seeds, which Mizzou is not) ends up losing a game like this, where the shots wouldn't fall, and the other team couldn't miss for a while, and the team just broke down.  However, a) that seems to happen a lot against Illinois (what's the basketball version of a "Helmet Game"?), and b) this was a chance to prove to people in St. Louis that this team is worth the trip to Mizzou Arena on a Saturday afternoon or, even worse, a cold Tuesday night in January...and needless to say, they probably didn't impress anybody.

Of all the numbers in the above table, the most stark is probably the "Points Per Shot" figure.  For a while there, Mizzou would play good defense and give up 3 points, then play bad defense and give up an open dunk...and yeah, that damages you pretty quickly.

More glorious numbers after the jump.

Player EqPts* EqPts/Min Line
Leo Lyons 25.01 0.86 22 Pts, 4 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO
J.T. Tiller 11.27 0.36 5 Pts, 6 Reb
Keith Ramsey 9.36 0.62 2 Pts, 5 Reb, 2 Ast, 1 Blk
Kim English 8.40 0.42 7 Pts, 3 Reb, 2 Stl
Matt Lawrence 3.82 0.17 4 Pts, 2 Reb, 2 Stl
Zaire Taylor 2.67 0.12 11 Pts, 2 Reb, 0 Ast
Marcus Denmon 2.10 0.12 2 Pts
DeMarre Carroll 1.53 0.06 6 Pts, 2 Stl, 3 TO
Laurence Bowers 0.19 0.19 1 minute
Justin Safford -2.10 -0.21 0 Pts, 1 Reb, 1 Stl
Miguel Paul -3.25 -0.46 0 Pts, 1 Ast

EqPts = a take-off of the Net Equivalent Points idea discussed last week.  Taking points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account, the team's points are re-distributed to figure out who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.  I can go into detail on the formula if anybody asks, but for now just know that that was the intent.

  • Aside from making an outlet pass to the guy at the scorer's table waiting to check into the game, Leo Lyons really did play alright.  The main problem with Leo's game creeped in when DeMarre went out with a twisted ankle in the first half and Leo had to defend at the top of the key.  That resulted in quite a few open shots...further signifying the importance of DeMarre to this team.  Next time #1 goes out, let's try Keith Ramsey or Laurence Bowers up there, shall we?
  • Zaire Taylor and Miguel Paul: 1 combined assist.  That really tests the strength of the "This is a great passing team" theorem.  Granted, passing wasn't a major problem last night (random passes to the scorer's table aside), but it wasn't exactly a strength.
  • I think Marcus Denmon was the biggest victim of the whole lid-on-the-rim experiment in the first half.  Every time he releases a shot, I assume it's going in (which is saying something considering his season FG% isn't too hot), and he had a couple rattle out at a time when Mizzou really needed a basket.
  • Keith Ramsey continues to be the "little things" leader...filling up the box score despite only two points.  One request, though: no more 3-pointers.

Mizzou versus Real Teams*

Mizzou Opp.
Points Per Minute
1.91 1.80
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.09 1.02
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.22 1.36
2-PT FG% 52.6% 46.7%
3-PT FG% 25.0% 43.2%
FT% 65.5% 63.9%
Mizzou Opp.
Assists/Gm 17.8 14.0
Steals/Gm 12.0 5.0
Turnovers/Gm 12.0 19.5
(Assists + Steals) / TO 2.48 0.97
Mizzou Opp.
Expected Offensive Rebounds 53 48
Offensive Rebounds 55 55
Eq. Rebound Margin +2 +7
* "Real Teams" includes the following opponents: Xavier, USC, California, Illinois. It doesn't necessarily mean "good" teams, just teams from major conferences or, in Xavier's case, a very well-established mid-major conference team.

Yeah, needless to say, the "correction" was felt hardest here.  These "real team" numbers looked great thanks to a) the small sample size and b) the Cal massacre, but Illinois straightened that out a bit.  The Assist/Steal/Turnover numbers still look great overall.

Mizzou is shooting 25% from 3-point range against "real" teams.  Matt Lawrence is contributing nothing in these games.  Less than nothing, actually.  Kim English shot too much last night, but I'm still leaning toward starting him over M-Law.

Player EqPts/Gm EqPts/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 16.33 0.57 17.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.8 APG
Leo Lyons 14.77 0.59 17.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.3 SPG
J.T. Tiller 13.84 0.56 9.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.3 SPG
Zaire Taylor 6.41 0.23 6.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.0 APG
Marcus Denmon 5.44 0.31 5.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 APG
Keith Ramsey 5.25 0.42 3.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 BPG
Kim English 3.65 0.25 7.3 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 1.0 APG
Laurence Bowers 3.19 0.64 2.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Matt Lawrence 2.64 0.14 4.3 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Justin Safford 2.02 0.17 2.5 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.0 APG
Michael Anderson Jr. 1.40 0.28 1 game
Jarrett Sutton 0.78 0.26 1 game
Miguel Paul 0.74 0.06 3.0 PPG, 1.3 APG
Steve Moore 0.62 0.12 1 game
  • Not sure why I want to point this out, but in 5.0 MPG, Laurence Bowers is producing more than Matt Lawrence is in 19.5 MPG.  And while Kimmie's 0.25 EqPts/Minute is lacking, it's still just a wee bit better than Lawrence's 0.14.  He can't shoot quite as well as The Grey Goose, but he can create his own shot about 15x better, and that's worth quite a bit.
  • I'm also ready to see Bowers get some meaningful minutes against real teams.  Not saying he'll do any better than Safford, but let's find out.
  • If you looked up "Growing Pains" in the dictionary, next to the picture of Kirk Cameron would be a picture of Miguel Paul.  But that doesn't mean we should give him the nickname of Boner.

Season to Date

Player EqPts/Gm EqPts/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 16.53 0.64 16.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.8 SPG
Leo Lyons 15.08 0.63 16.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 2.4 APG
Marcus Denmon
7.47 0.43 6.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.8 APG
J.T. Tiller
7.42 0.33 6.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.0 SPG
Zaire Taylor
7.04 0.29 4.8 PPG, 3.2 APG, 3.1 RPG
Matt Lawrence 6.87 0.36 9.0 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Keith Ramsey
4.68 0.38 3.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 0.8 APG
Miguel Paul 4.37 0.29 4.4 PPG, 2.3 APG, 1.1 RPG
Kim English
4.26 0.32 6.9 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 1.0 APG
Laurence Bowers 3.37 0.41 2.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 0.6 APG
Justin Safford 3.33 0.27 3.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 1.4 APG
Jarrett Sutton 2.06 0.59 3.0 PPG, 1 walk-on
Steve Moore 1.47 0.27 1.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.5 APG
Michael Anderson Jr. 1.11 0.17 1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 1 coach's son

The next game is in three days. Thank goodness. Then again, if a game takes place in front of nobody, did it really happen?

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