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Tempering Expectations

I need to preface this rant by stating that I love my school, and you're not going to find someone who is pulling for the Tigers harder than I am. And yes, I think this Missouri football team has the chance to be exceptional.

But in talking recently with a number of fans, it seems like the expectations for this team are absolutely out of control. A few have said that anything less than a National Championship game appearance would be a disappointment. Many more have said that anything less than a BCS bowl appearance would be a disappointment.

And I understand the excitement. Last season was electrifying, from the exciting victory over Illinois to the throttling of Nebraska to the entire D-Line's "intentional grounding" of Todd Reesing for a safety to the unforgettable Cotton Bowl. It was nothing short of astonishing and, moreso, exhilirating.

But, as rpt can attest to, I take exactly nothing for granted when it comes to Missouri sports. Trust me: much like all of you, I have been burned. Badly. And repeatedly.

And that's why I think Missouri fans need to pull back on the reins a little bit. Yes, it's fun to speculate. And I am absolutely guilty of such an activity. But Missouri fans need to remember that there are a lot of obstacles in the way, seen and unforseen, for this team, and I don't want thousands of Tiger fans crying themselves to sleep should this team fall short of these ever-heightening expectations.

Think about last year in terms of injuries. There was the season-ending injury to Pig Brown, but outside of that, Missouri was exceptionally fortunate not to sustain any other major injuries. Jeremy Maclin's knee held up. Chase Daniel got up every time he took a big hit because he doesn't know how to slide. Legs on the offensive line didn't get tangled up. William Moore didn't catch a helmet to the knee. Neither did Chase Coffman. Nor any of the running backs. Missouri was exceptionally fortunate to be so relatively injury free.

Think about the schedule this year:

vs. Illinois (St. Louis) -- perhaps the toughest non-conference game in the Big 12 this season.

vs. SeMo -- Moving on...

vs. Nevada -- Not a pushover, but I'd be much more worried about it on the road.

vs. Buffalo -- A team on the rise with an exceptional coach Turner Gill. Hard to believe Mizzou would fall at home to a MAC also-ran, but stranger things have happened.

@ Nebraska -- First true road game of the year, in a place where Missouri hasn't won since the Lincoln administration.

vs. Oklahoma State -- QB Zac Robinson is one of the more underrated players in the conference, and you always have to remember that Mike Gundy is a man, and will be 41 at that point.

@ Texas -- Can't say anything that hasn't already been said. Texas is a deadly team, especially at DKR.

vs. Colorado -- A true wild card this season, nobody really knows what to expect from Colorado. Even though it's homecoming, you can't write off this game because you don't know what you're up against.

@ Baylor -- Trap city.

vs. Kansas State -- Josh "No. 1 Pick" Freeman provides a challenge, but it's hard to take this team seriously without Jordy Nelson. And with Ron Prince stomping the yard. And playing in the Chases' final home game.

@ Iowa State -- Moving on...

vs. Kansas (Kansas City) -- A tough game to be sure, especially with a team that will be looking for revenge. As much as I'd like to make fun of them, this is a team with a good quarterback, a sound defense and a very good attitude.

And a fat coach. Damnit. Couldn't resist.

My point is, when you look at this schedule, there are four absolutely loseable games (Illinois, Nebraska, Texas, Kansas), and that's assuming that Missouri takes care of business in the other ones.

And we all know that hasn't been this school's strongest suit.

Even if Missouri splits those four loseable games, that leaves it at 10-2, almost definitely out of the National Championship hunt and probably on the outside looking in for a BCS bowl. 10-2 probably puts Missouri back in Dallas on New Year's morning.

And I think Missouri fans should be happy with that. Why does one great season give fans the right to expect the moon? In fact, if history serves us, Missouri SHOULD fall flat on its collective face this fall.

Do I think that will happen? No. I think this team is too good to let that happen. But to start expecting national championships and BCS bowls after one outstanding year isn't just too optimistic, it's borderline ludicrous.

To quote Gary Pinkel:

Do you mind that some people are talking about winning the national championship, or do you encourage that?

Gary Pinkel: Not at all. We haven't won a Big 12 championship around here. What are we talking about a national championship? Are you kidding me? We've won one Big 12 North title. That's people who are kind of just maybe handling it the best way they can. I'll handle it internally. Tell me their names (laughing).

Amen. Be happy with a good, not great, season. Be reasonable with expectations. And for the love of Science, don't become Ohio State, Florida and Notre Dame fans and feel entitled to a BCS bowl just by having one great year.

Because those fans suck.

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as a Notre Dame fan, I take offense to that. Do not group us with Florida and Ohio State. Those teams have had sustained success, because they pay their players better. Myself and all the ND fans I know have never taken a BCS game for granted. Most of the time, we should not even be in the game. (Sugar against LSU, Fiesta against tOSU) But the reason we are is because of the fanbase. It does not matter if Lee Corso predicts a blowout, Irish fans will go to Lubbock to watch ND play. I am all for tempering expectations, but dont use Notre Dame’s fanbase as a reason. We are like any other fans of any other team. We are not special. But by all means, hate on tOSU. that place blows.

by mcboomofdoom on Jul 23, 2008 8:33 PM CDT   0 recs

I have very high expectations for this year.

I see no reason why we cannot go 12-0 this season, but at the same time I could see us going 10-2 or 9-3 if we slip up.
Two years in a row we have been stung by heartbreaking losses (Iowa State), dropped wide open passes (Franklin against TAM), and last years Big 12 Champ game.
I really want to believe that this team is going to go really special places. Thats why I am going all in emotionally this season, heartbreak be damned.

Missouri Tigers 2008 Cotton Bowl Champs

by nji232 on Jul 23, 2008 10:26 PM CDT   0 recs

This brings up a great question:

What is the fair line for expectations? What do you, the average RMN reader, personally expect in 2008?

Here’s the way I see it, and as ghtd made the great point about, this is all assuming that Mizzou stays healthy:
- You expect a Big 12 North title. No one else in the division should be within a game.
- You expect, at least, a competitive fight in the Big 12 Championship.
- You can legitimately hope for a Big 12 title. I think expecting them to win it at this point may be a tad premature, although it is most certainly in the realm of possibility.
- You expect a BCS Bowl appearance. I can’t see Mizzou getting screwed again, even if they drop two games and don’t take the Big 12.
- You can, somewhat less legitimately, hope for a MNC game appearance. That window is just way to small for ANY team to expect to be there.

http://www.RockMNation.com
Chance McDanielson for Heisman

by rptgwb on Jul 23, 2008 11:14 PM CDT   0 recs

I can agree with 80 percent of that.

Expectation of a Big 12 North title and giving a good fight in the B12 Championship game is completely reasonable. Mizzou has been there before, proven that they can do it, and I can safely say that anything less than that would be disappointing.

Expecting Mizzou to win the Big 12 title is not reasonable, albeit possible. Playing OU or Texas (or Texas Tech?) is going to be a very difficult task, especially if it’s those damn Sooners again. But there is legitimate reason to put hope in that.

I think you can absolutely hope for a National Championship game appearance. This team is good enough to do that. But to expect it, or to be wholly disappointed if it doesn’t happen, is absolutely ludicrous. Remember: prior to last year, this program pretty much topped out at 8 wins.

Where I’m going to disagree with you is on the BCS Bowl. I think you hope for it, and you have good reason to hope for it, but expecting it is a little too much. If the B12 South is as good as advertised, with three 10-win teams (UT, OU, TT, which is completely within the realm of possibility), and Missouri loses the Big 12 championship game (which, again, we’re working under the assumption that it happens, seeing as how we’re EXPECTING only to be competitive), then it’s completely plausible that Mizzou is Cotton Bowl-bound again, or “worse” (San Diago, which in German means a whale’s vagina).

Basically, to get lock up a BCS bowl, I think it’s going to take 11 wins OR a Big 12 title. Now, 10 wins might end up doing it, especially if one of those wins is against Illinois and the Illini end up being pretty good. But as far as “expecting” a BCS bowl, that would mean that we expect this team to either finish 11-2 with a loss in the B12 Championship Game, or win the B12 Championship game.

And right now, I’m not prepared to make that commitment. Now, a lot could change after I see Mizzou play Illinois. But as for now, I’ve got this team marked for 10 wins, a Big 12 North title, a loss to OU in the B12 Championship game, and a Cotton/Holiday Bowl berth.

But again, I’m a pessimist. This team could shock me. God knows it happened last year.

"But the point is, [Jeff] Mathis is a bush-league uber douche." -lonestarJon

by ghtd36 on Jul 24, 2008 12:10 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

My take:

Stuff happens. USC lost to Stanford, OU to Colorado, etc. We could slip up at any moment, and we wouldn’t be alone in doing so. But I know that we’re one of a handful of teams with a super-duper legitimate chance at the national title—that thought is more realistic than it’s ever been. But injuries happen, and the spiky, oblong ball every team plays with takes some crazy bounces sometimes. Nothing we can do about that. I plan on sitting back and enjoying the ridiculously talented team wearing my black and gold, but there’s no doubt I’ll be at least a smidge disappointed if we’re not playing in the national title game in January.

http://www.rockmnation.com
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by The Boy on Jul 24, 2008 5:39 AM CDT   0 recs

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