Texas Football: Behind the Box Score 2007

by The Boy on Jul 9, 2008 8:00 AM CDT in Beyond the Box Score

Quick bitter impressions of Texas' 2007 season: Colt McCoy regressed, the secondary couldn't stop anybody, the LBs were slow, the offense leaned too much on Jamaal Charles, and Texas only won...10 games. Let's take a look at how 'bad' Texas really was last year and how much improvement they can expect in 2008.

Initial Stat Assault

Here are the 'EqPts' scores from the 2007 slate:

9/1: Texas 21.6, Arkansas State 11.0 (real score: 21-13)
9/8: Texas 26.4, TCU 3.3 (34-13)
9/15: Texas 19.8, Central Florida 18.7 (35-32)
9/22: Texas 46.4, Rice 6.9 (58-14)
9/29: Texas 22.1, Kansas State 15.5 (21-41...KSU had like 13 special teams TDs)
10/6: Oklahoma 23.5, Texas 21.2 (28-21)
10/13: Texas 46.5, Iowa State 6.8 (56-3)
10/20: Texas 26.9, Baylor 6.0 (31-10)
10/27: Texas 28.9, Nebraska 21.5 (28-25)
11/3: Texas 38.0, Oklahoma State 32.2 (38-35)
11/10: Texas 51.4, Texas Tech 35.2 (59-43)
11/23: Texas A&M 41.7, Texas 16.4 (38-30)
12/27: Texas 41.3, Arizona State 13.1 (52-34)

* KSU's win in Austin last year was possibly the flukiest win I've ever seen from a BTBS perspective. They should have lost by 7, and they won by 20.

* At the same time, UT had no business even being on the same field as ATM, yet they cut it close at the end.

* In the end, the 'disappointing' 10-3 season should have really been 11-2. And UT's only true bad performance was against ATM. But thank god UT did lose to ATM, as otherwise we'd have been relegated to whooping Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl (after being #1 on 12/1), with UT-Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, and...well, I really enjoyed my trip to Dallas.

More stats!

Offense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 47.1% / 0.46 / 0.926
Passing: 46.1% / 0.38 / 0.837
TOTAL: 46.6% / 0.42 / 0.884

Rushing (CLOSE): 46.1% / 0.42 / 0.877
Passing (CLOSE): 45.8% / 0.35 / 0.804
TOTAL (CLOSE): 45.9% / 0.38 / 0.842

Passing Downs S&P: 0.576
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 1.018

Redzone S&P: 1.052

Q1 S&P: 0.858
Q2 S&P: 0.902
Q3 S&P: 0.790
Q4 S&P: 0.988

1st Down S&P: 0.932
2nd Down S&P: 0.796
3rd Down S&P: 0.803

Pressure (i.e. Q4 and close) S&P: 1.169

Line Yards/Carry: 3.12

* Considering their QB didn't seem to have any arm strength and their best WR got hurt, these are pretty solid offensive numbers.

* UT's success rates (efficiency) were pretty decent, but their PPP numbers (explosiveness) were only so-so. This reflects the lack of a go-to WR, and the fact that Jamaal Charles only seemed to get going in Q4.

* UT was better overall than in close situations, meaning when they got things rolling (against the Rice's and Iowa State's of the world...and, to be fair, against Texas Tech too), they were great...but in tight games they were only above average.

* Their "pressure" numbers were aided in part by the fact that they didn't blow out teams with bad defenses like Nebraska, Arkansas State, and Central Florida. So when 'pressure' situations emerged, they moved the ball well. Still, though, they came through in those games.

Defense (Success Rate / PPP / S&P)

Rushing: 41.3% / 0.23 / 0.643
Passing: 42.4% / 0.26 / 0.688
TOTAL: 41.9% / 0.25 / 0.669

Rushing (CLOSE): 41.4% / 0.23 / 0.642
Passing (CLOSE): 42.9% / 0.26 / 0.686
TOTAL (CLOSE): 42.2% / 0.24 / 0.666

Passing Downs S&P: 0.356
Non-Passing Downs S&P: 0.818

Redzone S&P: 0.639

Q1 S&P: 0.657
Q2 S&P: 0.618
Q3 S&P: 0.639
Q4 S&P: 0.757

1st Down S&P: 0.761
2nd Down S&P: 0.623
3rd Down S&P: 0.460

Pressure S&P: 0.584

Line Yards/Carry: 2.49

* These numbers really are pretty strong. UT might not have lived up to UT standards on D, but let's not overstate the case here.

* Offenses were able to move the ball relatively efficiently (41.9% success rates were almost exactly the national average), but Texas' speed was able to cut off plays pretty quickly--opponents' PPP's were extremely low. You could move the ball on UT, but only if you were super-patient. And only if you got some yards on 1st down. The strong 'Horn DL pinned its ears back in passing downs.

'+' Numbers

Alright, so how did UT do compared to what was expected for the teams they played? Time to visit some '+' numbers. Remember...100 = average, <100 = bad, >100 = good.

Offense

EqPts+ = 162.55 (#15 nationally)
S&P+ = 129.01 (#18)
CloseS&P+ = 127.16 (#26)

RushingEqPts+ = 192.84 (#11)
RushingS&P+ = 134.82 (#13)
RushingCloseS&P+ = 118.02 (#21)

PassingEqPts+ = 118.67 (#42)
PassingS&P+ = 123.74 (#28)
PassingCloseS&P+ = 116.69 (#29)

Passing Downs S&P+ = 115.54 (#37)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+ = 119.95 (#12)

Redzone S&P+ = 143.48 (#9)

Q1 S&P+ = 116.46 (#32)
Q2 S&P+ = 123.41 (#18)
Q3 S&P+ = 119.29 (#29)
Q4 S&P+ = 123.55 (#15)

1st Down S&P+ = 118.23 (#15)
2nd Down S&P+ = 111.10 (#39)
3rd Down S&P+ = 149.02 (#11)

Line Yards+ = 109.60 (#27)
Close Line Yards+ = 108.26 (#34)

* These numbers are rather consistent across the board. They were solid in close games and better in non-close games.

* Jamaal Charles appears to have come through well in the redzone.

* I have an ongoing theory about Q1-Q4 numbers. Some teams are better in Q1 and Q3, while some are better in Q2 and Q4. My theory is that the Q1/Q3 teams' success is based around gameplanning and adjustments, while the Q2/Q4 teams succeed most primarily due to caliber of athlete and talent. Knowing the reputation Mack Brown has, the fact that Texas seems to be a Q2/Q4 team doesn't surprise me all that much.

Defense

EqPts+ = 125.47 (#14)
S&P+ = 128.16 (#21)
CloseS&P+ =137.71 (#16)

RushingEqPts+ = 198.38 (#2)
RushingS&P+ = 141.12 (#9)
RushingCloseS&P+ =136.32 (#9)

PassingEqPts+ = 123.50 (#32)
PassingS&P+ = 116.89 (#33)
PassingCloseS&P+ =113.15 (#39)

Passing Downs S&P+ = 130.13 (#18)
Non-Passing Downs S&P+ =107.47 (#38)

Redzone S&P+ =127.09 (#20)

Q1 S&P+ = 102.69 (#58)
Q2 S&P+ = 134.27 (#9)
Q3 S&P+ = 106.68 (#43)
Q4 S&P+ = 87.33 (#92)

1st Down S&P+ = 103.26 (#50)
2nd Down S&P+ = 130.05 (#10)
3rd Down S&P+ =121.68 (#23)

Line Yards+ = 128.64 (#6)
Close Line Yards+ =113.93 (#23)

* So overall, UT's defense really wasn't bad at all...even their pass defense. A couple things made a rather distinct impression on observers, though: 1) their utter collapse against ATM, and 2) their Q4 woes. The Q1 to Q2 progression suggests the same sort of "athletes taking over" impression that I spoke of on the offensive analysis. But while they regressed again in Q3, they completely and totally fell apart in Q4.

* Texas had what I'll call a high-leverage defense last year. If they could leverage you into uncomfortable situations, they would physically dominate you--they were great against the run (especially once they were up a couple TDs and could tee off), they were very good in passing downs, they were good on 2nd and 3rd downs. But if you kept them off-balance--nail them in Q1, be efficient on 1st downs, keep the game close until Q4, you had a chance against them. Of course, they still won 10 games.

* Ironically, while UT finished #14/#21/#16 in my three overall defense numbers, Auburn--former employer of new UT hotshot Defensive Coordinator Will Muschamp--finished #34/#38/#29. But if Muschamp can get his team to play defense for four quarters instead of just three, I think UT fans will be happy.

2008

Alright, so that was 2007...what are some of the burning questions for 2008?

How will Colt McCoy do in '08?

Depends. As has been mentioned elsewhere, McCoy was a better scrambler at the end of the year than a passer--his rushing averages were indeed quite nice (55.6% / 0.49 PPP / 1.050 S&P). However, it's hard to project how he'll progress as a junior because it's impossible to know the state of his arm and the state of his head. His passing numbers (46.8% / 0.38 PPP / 0.848 S&P) were quite nice aside from the ugly INT totals (18). But those INTs are kinda sorta important. If he trusts his arm (and knows what he's capable of instead of throwing dumb passes), then he should at the very least be able to throw efficiently.

Having an explosive passing game, however, is a different matter. Quan Cosby (86.4% / 0.87 PPP / 1.735 S&P...not bad) returns, as does Jordan Shipley (77.8% / 1.37 PPP / 2.151 S&P). Neither of them are game-changers (though if Shipley can double his receptions and maintain those averages, he could be). Plus, they lose possession WR Nate Jones (1.505 S&P) and TE Jermichael Finley. They need to find some new blood. Lord knows they've got some options with potential--RSFr (and stud recruit) Malcolm Williams, true freshmen (and stud recruits) Dan Buckner and DJ Grant, etc.

Who will replace Jamaal Charles?

It's been made very clear just how much the 'Horns relied on Charles (47.1% / 0.47 PPP / 0.940 S&P) to bail them out last year. Now he's gone. His two main replacements are sophomore Vondrell McGee (42.7% / 0.38 PPP / 0.811 S&P) and senior Chris Ogbonnaya (42.3% / 0.35 PPP / 0.773 S&P), but there are some other candidates--Phil Steele likes RSFr (and spring game star) Foswhitt Whitaker to take over, and other youngsters/stud recruits like RSFr Cody Johnson (5'11, 255!) and Fr Jeremy Hills will have the opportunity to make some noise. It's doubtful any of them will duplicate Charles' numbers, though.

So what have we learned? If this weren't Texas, I'd have serious reservations about this offense--they lost their most productive RB, WR, and TE, and their QB has to bounce back from throwing a lot of really bad passes last year. But I'm just going to assume that one of the young WRs and one of the young RBs will step up. One thing I do know, however, is that...

Will the defense improve in 2008?

Yes. They weren't bad to begin with, their D-Line has Brian Orakpo, Lamarr Houston, Eddie Jones, Roy Miller, etc., they have a better D-Coordinator (at least one with a better reputation)...yes. Yes, they will improve. How did you like THAT analysis?

What about Special Teams?

Their special teams unit was #30 in the nation in 2007, according to my rankings, Ryan Bailey's a solid kicker, Trevor Gerland's an okay punter, and Quan Cosby is a very good return man. In the words of Phil Steele, all of the key players return and the Horns should improve upon their #26 ranking.

Summary

If Sam Bradford has anything resembling a sophomore slump, Texas could win the South. They're a lot closer than people want to think. Texas Tech is the flavor of the month, but Texas is the second-best team in the South. Of course, a) they play Tech in Lubbock, and b) if the pass defense isn't solid, the October stretch of Oklahoma -> Missouri -> Oklahoma State -> at Texas Tech could be murder. But needless to say, this is the best, most talented team on Mizzou's schedule in 2008, and it stinks that we're playing them in Austin.

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Good analysis

Your reputation is well-deserved.

A few thoughts from a Longhorn:

-Texas fans are perhaps a bit spoiled. Believe me, nobody was happy with last season’s 10 wins. When we were playing well, we could play with anyone, but when we stunk, man, we sunk to new lows. I was convinced we could play at the level of D2 schools on some nights (slight exaggeration). There was a staggering lack of consistency with the team (mostly on D), and the fact that we lost to a bad A&M team just made everyone fume. The reason the score was close at the end is because A&M just wasn’t very good. If we had played like THAT against any decent team (like Mizzou, for instance), we would have lost by a ton. A part of me is glad we didn’t face Chase Daniel last year. If we let Stephen freakin’ McGee look like Peyton Manning, Daniel may have looked like Joe Montana from Tecmo Bowl.

-We are very happy with the Muschamp hire. Akina is a good DB coach but simply didn’t do a good job as a DC, and he drew criticism even more so than the scapegoat Greg Davis at times. With our talent on defense and with Muschamp’s fire, we’re very excited with how the defense will look the next two years (assuming Muschamp doesn’t bolt for some HC job elsewhere). We have high hopes for our D-line and new, talented linebackers. However, while we have talent in the secondary, much of it is inexperienced and we’re breaking two brand new safeties. We may have to rely on our athletic DE’s to smack the quarterback early and often.

-Losing our three biggest playmakers hurts, obviously (Sweed, Charles, Finley), but one thing I’m sure of is that our line will be better. Last year, it was devastated with injuries and a lot of the players were inexperienced. Chris Hall played every single position on the line last year at one point. With a stronger line, I think we can hammer out a consistent run game, even though we will lack the explosiveness that Jamaal Charles gave us. Furthermore, while we may not have a powerful vertical attack as you said, the stronger line will help it be efficient. Much of Colt’s problems can be attributed to the line letting him get pummeled, and he lost confidence in the line early and thus did some frantic, silly things with the football. However, I think Shipley will surprise people this year and, like you said, we have some talented younger players waiting.

-Basically, what we’re looking for most right now is a) New safeties and b) Playmakers on offense. Until we are settled there, I think it’d be in our best interest not to get into an aerial, shoot out war with another team.

-While I’ve made fun of the North for the past few years, I know Missouri is legit (not quite sure about Kansas). You guys definitely got robbed out of a BCS game (and really, you should have beat OU at least once if your someone in your secondary can catch an interception that hits them in the hands). I’ve penciled this one in as one of our biggest games of the year, and one of our tougher ones. We get you in Austin, but you get us in what seems to be more or less a transition year. I look forward to the game. Our line and LB’s better get to Daniel and rattle him or we’re going to be in for a world of hurt.

by TheElusiveShadow on Jul 10, 2008 12:24 PM CDT 0 recs

Thanks for stopping by

Lots of good info – great to hear from ‘Horns fans.

Couple of questions:

- You mentioned the “staggering lack of consistency” on defense. Was that mental mistakes by the players or was Akina truly that atrocious of a DC that the Muschamp hire immediately absolves all those issues?

- You noted the inexperienced defensive back unit. If you had your best guess, are the four non-conference games and the Red River Shootout enough time to have them broken in and prepared for an aerial attack like Mizzou;s?

- Having been in College Station last year for the UT/aTm game, I think you’re absolutely right about the offensive line struggles, something we’ve failed to mention until you brought it up. That line had Colt running for its life in that game, and from what else I saw, a lot of the season.

- I saw PB post over at BON about how tough 2008 should be for Texas, but he makes a great case that the Horns should be absolutely STACKED in 2009 with much of their conference foes in reloading stages (including Texas Tech and our ol’ fair Missouri). I know expectations are never low in Austin, but is there any “wait until 2009” sentiment hidden among the fan base?

http://www.RockMNation.com
Chance McDanielson for Heisman

by rptgwb on Jul 10, 2008 2:29 PM CDT 0 recs

Answers

1. It was a bit of both. A couple of our linebackers were notorious for making goofy mental mistakes, and our secondary often just didn’t do their jobs very well. However, Akina deservedly bore great blame for not preparing our defense well for most games. He didn’t start the LB’s he should have (partly Mack’s fault too), he didn’t seem to have a very disciplined defense, and he sent our players on constant, ineffective blitzes that left chunks of the field wide open. Nebraska, Texas Tech, Okie State, A&M, and K-state exploited this to an embarrassing degree. I felt like I was going to shoot myself the next time I saw Bobino suicide blitz up the middle, run smack into blockers, and allow the QB to just calmly hit his TE in the vacant space. And really, who knows why we allowed linebackers to cover Jordy Nelson for much of the K-state game. Muschamp, I think, brings in a new attitude that we really need. Akina can no concentrate on his specialty, defensive backs, and Muschamp can turn our talented front seven into rabid monsters.

2. With all due respect, I’m more concerned about being ready for the OU game before Missouri. However, Missouri is one of the toughest games in our schedule so I’ve thought about that too. I honestly don’t know; sometimes, it is the bad habit of Mack Brown to not make the necessary changes until we’ve been exposed and lose. If we beat OU, some may say our defense is ready, but if we lose to OU, Mack might whip everyone into shape before Mizzou. So I’m going to hold out hope that we’ll be ready for Missouri. Our safeties are new but both of our starting corners have significant playing time under their belts from last season.

3. There’s actually quite a bit of buzz around the ‘09 season among the fanbase (at least, those that follow college football more in depth), as most of our team on both sides of the ball will be returning and our schedule looks more favorable than this season. Plus, we have a good recruiting class (again) in which a couple freshmen may jump out and contribute immediately. However, that doesn’t mean we’re overlooking this upcoming season. I understand that things will not come easy this year, but I’m not aiming low. This team remains among the most talented in the nation, and if our coaches can get things together, we can make a good run. There’s not a team on our schedule that I think we can’t stand toe-to-toe against if both teams play up to par. Realistically speaking, it is a bit much to expect a national title in ‘08 at this point (though who knows, it may be as wacky as last season), but I think gunning for a conference title is very reasonable. We’ll be talking about the national championship in 2009, unless, of course, things completely fall apart this year.

by TheElusiveShadow on Jul 10, 2008 3:17 PM CDT up 0 recs

yeah, I visited BON at one point last year...

...and was taken aback by the vitriol aimed toward the LB corps (and Mack/Akina). Their BTBS numbers really weren’t that bad, but apparently the eyes tell a different story.

And I’m pretty curious about the whole “play well in 2008, but load up for 2009” strategy. I’m always trying to think in the long-term, so that whole thought process works for me, but…I’ll be curious what happens if they really do make some personnel decisions with 2009 in mind…and end up going 8-4 or so in 2008. I don’t think it’ll happen, but the reaction among the non-blogging UT fanbase would be rather interesting…

http://www.rockmnation.com
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by The Boy on Jul 11, 2008 7:40 AM CDT up 0 recs

The LB's

Most certainly got a lot more blame than they deserved. It got to almost a Greg Davis level: Something goes bad, people just automatically blame the linebackers whether they did anything wrong or not.

Nonetheless, they did deserve a lot of the criticism they got, and it made it worse when we had more athletic and talented linebackers playing behind them. Thus, the linebackers sometimes unfairly bore the brunt of the anger from fans as they felt the coaches were not running this football team like a meritocracy (obviously, that’s the coaches’ faults). When Mack got ticked off after our fiasco against A&M, he left every position open for the bowl game, and only one of the starting LB’s kept his starting job against Arizona State. Telling, I think.

As far as the non-blogging UT fanbase, I’m sure the reaction would be quite negative. There are certainly knowledgeable fans that don’t visit BON, but a team like Texas obviously has a multitude of fans that just don’t know very much or don’t follow the team year round. I definitely will say that if we go 8-4, many UT fans will throw unreasonable fits, curse at our coaches and players, and call for the head of Mack Brown. Of course, I think 8-4 is lower than where we should be this year, so even guys like me who are patiently waiting would be ticked off.

by TheElusiveShadow on Jul 11, 2008 9:46 AM CDT up 0 recs

Maybe one of the truest statements I've ever read

A team like Texas obviously has a multitude of fans that just don’t know very much or don’t follow the team year round.

I hail from the Dallas/Fort Worth area and you can’t throw a football in a crowd without hitting a UT fan that probably didn’t even attend the university. You guys have a HUGE non-alumni fan base. That was my original perception of UT fans, but having seen the number of knowledgeable fans over on BON and the level of discussion over there, that’s certainly changed.

Thanks again for stopping by. We can obviously speculate all we want but it’s great to hear from people closer to the situation than we are.

http://www.RockMNation.com
Chance McDanielson for Heisman

by rptgwb on Jul 11, 2008 10:39 AM CDT up 0 recs

Akina was a fish out of water

An example of Akina being in over his head would be staying in a base 4-3 vs Tech in a 3rd and long situation. Also, after almost every game last year Mack would be quoted saying “they did something completely new, something we didn’t expect of them”. I posted a full month before the A&M game that Mcgee would be throwing the ball more against us than he ever had. I’m just a lowly fan, but could see that every team had more success than they were due against us by just going outside their normal game plan.

Muschamp will be an improvement if he’s true to his word of being “multiple”, which I take as being able to make in game adjustments and scrapping a plan if it’s not working.

by Landry49 on Jul 18, 2008 10:16 AM CDT up 0 recs