Mizzou-Nebraska: Beyond the Box Score PREVIEW

We had a bye week, and there's no game for me to review...so let's go ahead and talk about Nebraska, shall we?

So the NCAA.org site from which I get my play-by-plays is screwing me this week, as half their games from last week aren't in the database correctly yet.  That's preventing me from having the up-to-date '+' numbers I was hoping to have for conference play.  Oh well, I guess.  Instead, what you get is one monster BTBS season box score for both Mizzou and Nebraska.  And after the jump, I'll play with projections the way I have been for the other '08 games so far.

If you have any questions about these numbers, please ask them.  At some point I'll get to the new BTBS Glossary I've promised...but it hasn't happened yet.  And if your eyes glaze over looking at numbers, check out the bullets after the box.

Nebraska

Opponents

Missouri

Opponents

59.4% % Close 51.9%
45.7% 54.3% Field Position % 58.5% 41.5%
71.2% 67.4% Leverage % 76.2% 66.6%
Total
243 282 Plays 290 317
114.58 81.79 EqPts 163.85 87.14
46.5% 38.7% Success Rate 58.3% 38.8%
0.47 0.29 PPP 0.57 0.27
0.937 0.677 S&P 1.148 0.663
Close Games
141 171 Plays 182 133
67.07 49.82 EqPts 108.33 35.11
44.7% 40.9% Success Rate 59.9% 37.6%
0.48 0.29 PPP 0.60 0.26
0.922 0.701 S&P 1.194 0.640
Rushing
46.94 36.55 EqPts 60.64 21.96
42.4% 36.3% Success Rate 51.9% 37.4%
0.38 0.27 PPP 0.47 0.17
0.800 0.634 S&P 0.989 0.542
2.82 2.52 Line Yds/carry 3.31 2.23
Passing
67.64 45.24 EqPts 103.21 65.18
50.8% 40.8% Success Rate 63.4% 39.8%
0.57 0.31 PPP 0.64 0.35
1.082 0.716 S&P 1.275 0.748
Non-Passing Downs
54.3% 45.3% Success Rate 62.9% 44.5%
0.53 0.31 PPP 0.60 0.31
1.071 0.766 S&P 1.228 0.754
Passing Downs
27.1% 25.0% Success Rate 43.5% 27.4%
0.33 0.24 PPP 0.46 0.21
0.605 0.491 S&P 0.890 0.481
Turnovers
7 6 Total 5 7
11.66 18.12 Points Lost 14.68 18.27
23.69 18.12 Points Given 12.31 33.76
35.35 36.24 Total T/O Pts 26.99 52.03
+0.89 -0.89 T/O Pts Margin +25.04 -25.04
Q1
46.8% 42.9% Success Rate 60.8% 41.5%
0.49 0.30 PPP 0.65 0.25
0.957 0.727 S&P 1.254 0.667
Q2
42.6% 40.8% Success Rate 62.0% 38.6%
0.45 0.27 PPP 0.65 0.26
0.880 0.680 S&P 1.272 0.650
Q3
49.1% 46.5% Success Rate 61.5% 37.8%
0.49 0.31 PPP 0.60 0.33
0.982 0.779 S&P 1.212 0.704
Q4
47.7% 25.0% Success Rate 46.8% 37.8%
0.46 0.28 PPP 0.32 0.26
0.932 0.528 S&P 0.789 0.638
1st Downs
55.3% 41.5% Success Rate 61.1% 43.3%
0.59 0.31 PPP 1.01 0.34
1.138 0.723 S&P 1.623 0.773
2nd Downs
38.9% 34.8% Success Rate 60.2% 34.0%
0.41 0.21 PPP 0.53 0.22
0.800 0.561 S&P 1.131 0.561
3rd Downs
35.6% 38.5% Success Rate 48.8% 34.3%
0.29 0.32 PPP 0.45 0.21
0.642 0.708 S&P 0.936 0.553

Thoughts...

  • Nebraska has actually lost the field position battle (Field Position % = plays you've run in your opponent's territory vs plays they've run in your territory) so far this year.  They've come up with some big plays so far, but that's a little bit alarming.  Some teams are really good at the bend-don't-break thing, but it's a dangerous game.
  • Less than 1/4 of Missouri's plays are Passing Downs.  Oh yeah, and they're just about the best in the country at converting Passing Downs.
  • Nebraska's 46% success rate is pretty solid; Mizzou's 58% success rate (60% in close games) is ridiculous.
  • Mizzou's only giving up 2.23 Line Yards per carry.  I thought it would be higher than that, even against relatively weak competition.  That's a stout run defense right there.
  • Nebraska's passing game is downright solid, especially considering Joe Ganz only has one 'shows up every game' weapon at his disposal, Nate "Remember Me?" Swift.
  • Oh yeah, and Mizzou's 1.275 Passing S&P is unbelievable.
  • If you can force Nebraska into passing downs, they're not able to complete them as well as they did last year, back when Marlon Lucky was alive.
  • Mizzou is the poster child for why Turnover Points Margin is so much more telling than Turnover Margin.  What happens when you put up 3 INT's for TD in 4 games?  You average a more than 6-point turnover advantage per game.
  • Nebraska is a Q1/Q3 team.  They gameplan well offensively, and they backslide a smidge once the gameplan runs out and they actually have to adjust.
  • Meanwhile, their defense is pretty stout in Q4.  Don't know if that's because of the competition or not, but let's just go ahead and make sure this game is out of reach in Q3, shall we?
  • Mizzou's offense is disgustingly consistent from Q1 to Q3.  We hear a lot about Mizzou's "fast starts", but a fast start suggests a fall-off.  They start fast and stay fast.  Their Q4 numbers are down, but put little stock in that--they've only played their starters in Q4 in 2 of 4 games.  They weren't wonderful offensively against Illinois in Q4, but that's a quite small sample size, no?
  • Mizzou's offense is RIDICULOUS on first downs.  A 1.623 S&P?  Seriously?
  • The game could be made or broken on third downs.  Nebraska is -0.062 S&P on third downs (0.642 on offense, 0.708 on defense), while Mizzou is +0.383.  You have to figure that home field advantage is most apparent on third downs, so Mizzou's advantage will shrink because of that...but that's still pretty significant right there.

Alright, projections after the jump...

Mizzou-Nebraska Projections

Mizzou Rushing

  • 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts+: 136.70
  • 2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 21.02
  • Projection #1: 28.74
  • 2007 Nebraska Rushing Defense EqPts+: 78.53
  • 2007 Mizzou Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 16.21
  • Projection #2: 20.64

Avg Projected Mizzou Rushing Output: 24.69

Adjusted for 2008: 24.0.  Mizzou's rushing offense is better in '08, and so is NU's rushing defense.  I'm bumping this down a hair, but I still think we're seeing a window of major opportunity here.  Derrick Washington could have a monster day.

Mizzou Passing

  • 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts+: 156.79
  • 2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 13.31
  • Projection #1: 20.87
  • 2007 Nebraska Passing Defense EqPts+: 102.29
  • 2007 Mizzou Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 18.40
  • Projection #2: 17.99

Avg Projected Mizzou Passing Output: 19.43

Adjusted for 2008: 20.0.  Again, NU's pass defense is better than last year's...but Mizzou's pass offense has gone to a new level.  If NU can't get pressure on Chase Daniel from its D-line, they're dead meat.

Nebraska Rushing

  • 2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts+: 99.81
  • 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts/Gm: 8.29
  • Projection #1: 8.27
  • 2007 Mizzou Rushing Defense EqPts+: 121.92
  • 2007 Nebraska Rushing Offense EqPts/Gm: 10.03
  • Projection #2: 8.23

Projected Nebraska Rushing Output: 8.25

Adjusted for 2008: 7.0.  NU's got little to no running game this year.  And Mizzou's just as good at stopping it.

Nebraska Passing

  • 2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts+: 169.46
  • 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts/Gm: 12.14
  • Projection #1: 20.57
  • 2007 Mizzou Passing Defense EqPts+: 103.91
  • 2007 Nebraska Passing Offense EqPts/Gm: 19.89
  • Projection #2: 19.14

Projected Nebraska Passing Output: 19.86

Adjusted for 2008: 18.0.  Here's the deal: NU averaged such high passing numbers in '07 because they were playing from behind so much.  Ironically, the fact that they're better at passing in '08 means they probably won't be averaging as many Passing EqPts--games will be closer, and they won't be letting 'er rip quite as much.

--

Projected EqPts Score: Missouri 44.0, Nebraska 25.0

Home Field Adjustment (+~3 for home, -~3 for road): Missouri 41, Nebraska 28.

--

Special Teams

Lincoln was the place where Missouri fans discovered what kind of kicker they were going to have for the next couple years.  The one bright spot of the '06 debacle in Lincoln was Jeff Wolfert crushing a 54-yard FG at the end of the first half...to cut NU's lead to 27-6.  Since then, Wolfert's missed almost nothing.  He leads what is, despite the kick return TD given up against Buffalo a week and a half ago, the best special teams unit Mizzou's had in recent history, possibly ever.  They've got their most accurate kicker ever, their best kick/punt returner ever, and a pretty solid punter.

Meanwhile, NU's unit is far from chopped liver.  After Niles Paul got a bit of fumbleitis against Virginia Tech, Nate Swift stepped in and took a punt back 80+ yards for a TD.  Meanwhile, primary kick return man Niles Paul also has a TD (a big one too--it broke open the way-too-tight San Jose State game) in this young season.  Alex Henery is a solid kicker as well.  The one problem: so far they're averaging 27.5 net yards per punt.  That's horrendous.  Granted, that includes last week's blocked punt, but Dan Titchener's 38.0 average (and propensity to give up some returns) doesn't cut it.  Mizzou has a special teams advantage here, but it's not a gigantic one.

--

Key Players: Nebraska

WR Todd Peterson, WR Menelik Holt, TE Mike McNeil...every receiver besides Nate Swift

Back in 2005, freshman Nate Swift was Zac Taylor's go-to WR in a mediocre pass attack.  2006 and 2007 were dominated by JUCO transfer Maurice Purify, but now Swift is back to being the #1 guy.  Problem is, Mizzou's still pretty darn good at stopping #1 receiving threats (thank you, Carl Gettis).  So someone on the Husker offense needs to step up and play the role Ernest Jackson (Buffalo's #2 WR, who scored 3 TDs) played for Buffalo or Will Judson (177 yards, 2 TDs) played for Illinois.  Problem is, the only NU WR who's caught a pass of more than 25 yards is Swift.  NU's still good at the screen game--RBs Quentin Castille, Roy Helu Jr. and Marlon Lucky (remember him?) all have had at least one long reception--but call me crazy...NU's not going to beat Mizzou by screening them to death.  Somebody's going to have to come up with a huge play or two, and it might be Jeremy Maclin's former Kirkwood teammate, TE Mike McNeill.

Or, you know, it might be nobody at all.

RB Marlon Lucky

I wanted to name anybody else but Lucky, but there are a lot of known quantities here.  Joe Ganz is going to be pretty solid.  Nate Swift is going to make a few catches.  The NU O-line is going to be decent but not spectacular.  Really, the key ingredient to NU being able to keep up with Mizzou on the scoreboard simply has to be Marlon Lucky.  The preseason All-Big 12 RB is barely on pace for 800 rushing yards this year, and despite a 58-yard run earlier in the season, he's only averaging 4.4 yards per carry.  While his backup, Roy Helu Jr., has rushed for almost as many yards on 15 fewer carries, Lucky's the workhorse, and he just has to have a big game.

DE Zach Potter

We've covered the "How to beat Mizzou" blueprint on RMN many times.  The key ingredient isn't a great secondary or explosive offense--it's having great DEs.  You have to be able to generate pressure on Chase Daniel without blitzing, and Potter is NU's only hope of success in that regard.  He's having a solid season so far--5.0 TFL's, 2 sacks, 1 INT, 2 pass breakups, 2 QB hurries; he might need all of that on Saturday.  He's a big dude (6'7, 285), and he's obviously pretty athletic...now he just needs to have a career game at exactly the right time.  Unfortunately for him, Mizzou's starting OT's, Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher, have been dominant thus far.

DT Ndamukong Suh

Usually, if I've already picked a DL here, I'd aim for an LB or DB with the second defensive slot.  It is, after all, important that NU's DBs cover better than they have in their lives even if the D-line IS generating some pressure.  But a) the LBs and DBs just don't really matter if the NU DL doesn't first dominate, and b) Suh's probably NU's most talented defensive player (other than Potter, anyway).  The best-case scenario is that the 6'4, 300-pound nose tackle teams with Potter to blow up one side of Mizzou's O-line and harrass all night.  I'll believe it when I see it--Suh completely and totally disappeared against good teams last year--but it's something to watch.

Key Players: Mizzou

RB Derrick Washington

It's quite possible that Nebraska, knowing it doesn't have the most wonderful secondary in the world, plays the mushroom cloud style of defense that teams like Arkansas and Kansas attempted against Mizzou last year, rushing 2-3 guys and dropping 8-9 into coverage.  If Nebraska attempts this, it will open up humongous holes for Derrick Washington, who has already proven himself to be a better overall weapon than Tony Temple.  Temple was a wonderful slasher, waiting for a hole and darting through it.  Washington can do that, but he doesn't really need to wait for a hole.  He can lower his head into the back of a pile and squirt through the other side for 6 yards; he can also break away for a TD at any time.  Washington is the reason it seems impossible to stop Missouri right now, and if he has a big game in Lincoln, I don't see how Missouri loses unless they're fumbling the ball left and right.

OT's Colin Brown and Elvis Fisher

This one's easy--if Zach Potter and Ndamukong Suh are the keys for Nebraska, the guys blocking them (sort of) are keys for Mizzou.  Granted, Suh's an NT, so he'll be on the interior of the line, but if he (and DT Ty Steinkuhler) can rough up the middle of the Mizzou O-line, it's up to Brown and Fisher to keep Chase Daniel from being blindsided.  I'm not worried about pressure from up the middle--Daniel can see that coming--it's what he can't see that I worry about.

DE Stryker Sulak

After a wonderful start to the season (3 sacks against Illinois), Sulak has more or less disappeared.  He's been the second-best DE on Mizzou's team (anybody notice how well Tommy Chavis has been playing?) for the last three games.  It's time for Sulak to make some more noise.  Ziggy Hood's coming along, and if Sulak lives up to the expectations he built for himself, this defense is suddenly pretty scary.

FS William Moore

Remember him?  I'm talking about William Moore the safety, not William Moore the third defensive end.  Assuming we scale back the Moore experimentation a bit and he, you know, actually plays free safety (and is healthy enough to play it well), he is Mizzou's most dangerous player.  Mizzou held a decent Buffalo offense in check without Moore, but Nebraska's obviously better than Buffalo, and Mizzou will need Moore to start making plays.

Then again, Sean Weatherspoon might just make all the plays, in which case it really doesn't matter what Moore does.

--

Summary

I want nothing more than to believe we're going to break a 30-year losing streak in Lincoln by absolutely destroying NU.  It's within the realm of possibility.  NU can't get to Chase Daniel early, Mizzou races to a quick early lead, Mizzou tees off on Joe Ganz, ..., blowout ensues.

But it's probably not going to happen.  I've been saying for two weeks now that we are likely to get everything Nebraska has.  Trick plays, inspired blitzes, some completely unknown receiver (Curenski Gilleylen, maybe?) coming out of the woodwork and finding a couple blindspots in Mizzou's Cover-2.  They'll probably even get a couple Sea-of-Red-style lucky bounces like the ones that quickly turned the '06 game into a blowout (Really? Will Franklin actually bats the ball to Adam Carriker?).

It's going to be a game.  But it comes down to what I've been repeating ad nauseum for the last two weeks: even with inspired play and some homefield bounces, can Nebraska stop Missouri more than Missouri can stop Nebraska?  The only reason I can come up with to convince myself that would happen is that...well, this game is in Lincoln.  Lincoln has been very bad to Mizzou over the years.  But you know what?  Manhattan and Boulder had also been bad to Mizzou for the last decade-plus.  And Mizzou ended those jinxes quite violently in 2007.  It's time to end this jinx too.  Bring it on, Huskers.

Prediction: Mizzou 45, Nebraska 24.

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