Mizzou-SEMO: Beyond the Box Score

So...does anybody really feel a great desire to dive into the intricacies of the BTBS stats for a 52-3 win that could have been 100-3 with the starters in?  I thought not.  But there are a few things I have to point out.

Almost Perfect

After the jump, you can check out my BTBS "box score" table for the SEMO game.  In it, be sure to check out the 'close-game' stats.

  • Mizzou ran 17 plays while the game was 'close' (i.e. within two possessions). 
  • Of those 17, 15 were successful.
  • Those 17 plays resulted in 17.25 EqPts.
  • Anything over a 45% success rate is solid.  Mizzou's close-game success rate was 88.2%.
  • Anything over a 0.50 PPP is solid.  Mizzou's close-game PPP was 1.01.
  • Adding those together, anything over about a 0.950 S&P is solid.  Mizzou's close-game S&P was 1.897.
  • Looking back at my 2007 stats, only one offensive performance can top Mizzou's near-perfection here: Florida put up a 92.3% close-game success rate, 1.40 close-game PPP, and 2.321 close-game S&P versus Western Kentucky last year.  F---ing Tim Tebow...always getting in Chase Daniel's way on the greatness scale...


For the game, Mizzou QBs put up the following numbers...

Chase Daniel

Passing: 88.2% / 1.07 PPP / 1.949 S&P
TOTAL: 80.6% / 0.90 PPP / 1.706 S&P

Chase Patton

Passing: 75.0% / 0.37 PPP / 1.121 S&P
TOTAL: 75.0% / 0.57 PPP / 1.321 S&P

Blaine Gabbert

Passing: 22.2% / 0.06 PPP / 0.280 S&P
TOTAL: 40.9% / 0.18 PPP / 0.589 S&P

Now...anybody who watched the game knows that Gabbert struggled more than Daniel and Patton.  But slack should be cut toward him due simply to the personnel on the field...especially on the last drive, when he was handing to Shaun Scott (who actually looked decent) and Tyrone Reece (who didn't).  In all, though, I do think it was good for Gabbert to get out the butterflies against SEMO.  Hopefully he'll get some snaps against Nevada, Buffalo, and one or two conference opponents as well.  Redshirt's off--might as well take advantage of it.


Derrick Washington: 7.57 EqPts (75.0% / 0.95 PPP / 1.696 S&P)
Jimmy Jackson: 4.93 EqPts (60.0% / 0.49 PPP / 1.093 S&P)
De'vion Moore: 4.09 EqPts (66.7% / 0.45 PPP / 1.121 S&P)
Shaun Scott: 0.61 EqPts (100.0% on 2 carries / 0.31 PPP / 1.305 S&P)
Tyrone Reece: -0.25 EqPts (0.0% on 2 carries / -0.13 PPP / -0.125 S&P)

Yes, it was SEMO, but it's still fun looking at unbelievable stats.


Small sample sizes make it not really worth looking at S&P stats for the receivers, but here's a list of the receivers and how many EqPts they accounted for...

Jared Perry: 5.19 EqPts
Derrick Washington: 4.50 EqPts
Jeremy Maclin: 2.76 EqPts
Jerrell Jackson: 2.73 EqPts
Chase Coffman: 2.11 EqPts
Tommy Saunders: 2.10 EqPts
Wes Kemp: 1.09 EqPts
Jimmy Jackson: 0.58 EqPts
Michael Egnew: 0.56 EqPts
Andrew Jones: 0.35 EqPts


Defensive Line: 85.7% success rate, 7.0 total tackles, 20.0% of overall tackles
Linebackers: 58.3% success rate, 12.0 total tackles, 34.3% of overall tackles
Defensive Backs: 18.8% success rate, 16.0 total tackles, 45.7% of overall tackles

  • Not to read too much into this, as it's impossible to stay focused when you're up 42-0 after 22 minutes, but there are a couple negative figures here.
  • The DB success rate is never going to be great, but it should probably be in the 25% range, not 19%.
  • The DL should be making 25%-30% of the team's overall tackles, not 20%.  And on the flipside, the DBs shouldn't be making 46% of the tackles.
  • The LBs were just about where they should be.

Top Successful Tacklers

  1. Andrew Gachkar, 2.0
  2. Sean Weatherspoon, 2.0
  3. Chris Earnhardt, 1.5
  4. Will Ebner, 1.5 (seemed like about 12)
  5. Kenji Jackson, 1.0

The tackles were spread across so many players that there really wasn't much to go on here.

Final BTBS Stats



% Close = 19.79%
69 Plays 81
40.99 EqPts 14.46
66.7% Success Rate 35.8%
0.59 Points Per Play (PPP) 0.18
1.261 S&P (Success + PPP) 0.537
17 Plays 20
17.25 EqPts 3.57
88.2% Success Rate 40.0%
1.01 PPP 0.18
1.897 S&P 0.579
19.36 EqPts 3.50
65.7% Success Rate 29.6%
0.59 PPP 0.13
1.251 S&P 0.426
21.62 EqPts 10.96
67.6% Success Rate 38.9%
0.64 PPP 0.20
1.312 S&P 0.592
76.8% Success Rate 39.2%
0.61 PPP 0.17
1.312 S&P 0.559
23.1% Success Rate 30.0%
0.55 PPP 0.20
0.778 S&P 0.499
0 Number 2
0.00 Points Lost ** 5.29
0.00 Points Given *** 8.57
0.00 Total T/O Pts 13.86
+13.86 Turnover Pts Margin -13.86
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