Mizzou-OSU: Statistical...WHEW

That really was a late-'80s style conference game right there.  The up-and-down pace was so much fun to watch...right up until Mizzou tried to blow a 20-point lead anyway.  Regardless: a win is a win is a win, and Mizzou's won two in a row at Gallagher-Iba.

And as mentioned in Mizzou Links, the stats showed everything great and terrible about Mizzou's performance.  Great 2-pt shooting, a nice burst of 3-pt shooting in the first half...great offensive rebounding in the first half, bad offensive rebounding in the second...wobbly-kneed FT shooting down the stretch...great 'Ball Control Index' score despite a rash of turnovers in the last three minutes...everything.

Mizzou 'Pokes
Points Per Minute
2.43 2.38
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.11 1.08
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.39 1.42
2-PT FG% 58.5% 46.5%
3-PT FG% 35.3% 33.3%
FT% 56.7% 79.5%
True Shooting % 58.3%
56.4%
Mizzou Pokes
Assists 20 9
Steals 12 6
Turnovers 16 19
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.00 0.79
Mizzou Pokes
Expected Offensive Rebounds 14 15
Offensive Rebounds 11 16
Difference -3 +1
  • As you would expect in a 2-point game, the shooting %'s ended up roughly even despite wild up-and-down swings.
  • With even shooting, Mizzou once again won this game by ball control (which is a crazy statement for anybody who saw the last three minutes).  Turnovers ended up breaking even, but Mizzou dominated in assists, and the easy buckets made the difference (though OSU almost made up that difference with outstanding FT shooting down the stretch).
  • A lot of those assists came out of halfcourt sets as well--I'm sure OSU's defense had something to do with this, but that was as good as we've seen Mike Anderson's halfcourt offense operate.
  • A fun trend in rebounding is developing: Mizzou gets outrebounded by short teams (OSU, NU) and does a lot better against bigger teams (CU, ISU).

One thing I definitely hadn't noticed while I (and the team) started blacking out after the last TV timeout: Mizzou had six guys in double figures.  The point distribution does end up pretty fun when you score 90+.  We should try that every game!

Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 20.97 0.78 19 Pts, 9 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO
Matt Lawrence 20.80 1.04 19 Pts, 3 Reb, 2 Ast
Zaire Taylor 18.00 0.56 10 Pts, 5 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl
J.T. Tiller 16.08 0.55 15 Pts, 7 Reb, 2 Ast, 2 Stl
Keith Ramsey 7.17 0.51 12 Pts, 2 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO
Leo Lyons 5.07 0.21 10 Pts, 3 Reb, 2 Stl
Marcus Denmon 4.19 0.28 7 Pts, 3 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO (including 1 egregious TO+Intentional Foul)
Miguel Paul 3.15 0.52 0 Pts, 2 Ast, 2 Reb
Laurence Bowers 2.80 0.31 4 Pts, 3 Reb
Justin Safford 0.00 0.00 1 Pt, 2 Reb
Kim English -1.22 -0.08 0 Pts

AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • DeMarre may have been one of the major reasons why Mizzou blew the lead down the stretch, but he was, along with Matt Lawrence, the main reason Mizzou had a lead to begin with.  It was JYD at his finest in the first half.
  • Clearly the Game Score formula doesn't include a "get stripped and then commit an egregious intentional foul after the guy who stripped you is dunking the ball, leading to a 6-point play with less than 3 minutes left" penalty, else Marcus Denmon's Game Score would have fallen from 4.19 to roughly -85.00.  An iffy game all-around from Denmon, who had an uncharacteristic number of turnovers and on at least one occasion failed to find Matt Lawrence open while The Goose was on his torrid shooting streak.  That's okay, though--Denmon was the star of the last game, and you have to expect that the freshmen won't come up as big on the road.  That was a pretty big-time learning experience for him, though.  At least, hopefully it was a learning experience.
  • I'll say this much: when The Goose is hot and Good Leo is making an appearance, Mizzou has the best bench in the Big 12.  And I think they can continue coming off of the bench because of the solid play Mizzou is getting from Keith Ramsey and Kimmie English.  Granted, English did next to nothing yesterday, but he once again didn't play out of control and appears to be a stabilizing force on the court even when his shot isn't falling.  Then again, it wouldn't hurt if Kimmie wanted to attempt to grab a rebound every now and then.
  • I have to figure we're going to win just about any time Taylor and Tiller (i.e. Hustle & Flow) combine for 25 points, 12 rebounds, 7 assists and 4 steals.  Just sayin'.
  • And speaking of combos...Jaureth Bamford: 17 points, 7 rebounds, 8 assists in 31 minutes.  And Laurence Bowers acquitted himself nicely in some key minutes. 
  • Speaking of Bowers...I noticed a couple of little things about his game yesterday: he's very comfortable on rebounds, controlling the ball with one hand while shielding his body on one board and immediately touch-passing the ball to a guard while catching the ball on another.  I guess those quick moves could backfire on him at some point, but his comfort level is awfully high.

vs Big 12
Mizzou: 3-1

Mizzou Opp.
Points Per Minute
0.52 0.40
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.16 0.90
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.41 1.18
2-PT FG% 54.5% 42.4%
3-PT FG% 43.4% 26.2%
FT% 62.2% 72.5%
True Shooting %
60.4% 49.1%
Mizzou Opp.
Assists 75 37
Steals 37 25
Turnovers 53 70
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.11 0.89
Mizzou Opp.
Expected Offensive Rebounds 47 53
Offensive Rebounds 39 43
Difference -8 -10
  • Mizzou's shooting has improved the last few games (against some of the less physical teams in the conference, predictably), but ball control and breaking even on the boards are the main reasons they're 3-1.  More physical games against KSU (in Manhattan) and Texas (in Austin) are coming up.  The KSU game in particular could be interesting--KSU turns the ball over at a ridiculous rate, but they're more aggressively physical than the last three teams Mizzou has played.
Player AdjGS* GS/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 14.41 0.56 12.0 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG
Zaire Taylor 10.98 0.47 7.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.3 SPG
Marcus Denmon 9.17 0.49 10.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.8 APG
Matt Lawrence 8.64 0.41 8.5 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.8 SPG
J.T. Tiller 8.16 0.35 10.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG
Leo Lyons 8.08 0.40 11.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG
Keith Ramsey 6.86 0.37 7.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.3 BPG
Kim English 5.65 0.38 6.0 PPG, 1.8 APG, 1.0 SPG
Laurence Bowers 5.38 0.49 6.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG
Miguel Paul 4.36 0.36 2.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 1.8 APG
Justin Safford 4.12 0.38 4.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.3 APG
Michael Anderson Jr. 1.70 0.21 0.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 Coach's Son
Jarrett Sutton 0.24 0.08 0.5 Walk-On 3's PG
Steve Moore -0.48 -0.09 1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG
  • These stats are fascinating to me.  Yes, we're only talking about a 4-game sample, but Mizzou's leading scorer in Big 12 play is only at 12.0 PPG, and NINE guys are averaging at least 6.0 PPG.  That, plus the fact that six guys are averaging at least a steal a game, makes Mizzou a lot harder to prepare for--you never know where the points and steals, not to mention rebounds and assists, are going to come from.  Very cool.
  • Predictably, Keith Ramsey's per-minute numbers have fallen with the more meaningful minutes he's played, but he's still making a nice contribution opposite DeMarre in the starting lineup, and it's allowing Mizzou to bring two major scoring threats (Good Leo, Goose) off the bench.

Next up: Texas Tech at Mizzou Arena at 12:30 on Saturday.  Tech (11-7, 1-2) is the worst team in the South, so hopefully Mizzou will avoid a letdown, hold serve and move to 4-1 before Wednesday's trip to Manhattan.  And it would be REALLY nice to be 5-1 when Baylor comes to town for another crazy up-and-down game next weekend.

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