Mizzou-KSU: Statistical One of Those Nights

Yup...as mentioned in comments last night...Mizzou was Hans Moleman, KSU was the football.

Good times.  Before I say "one of those nights" one more time (I'm holding off as long as possible), let's just go straight to the crotch shots stats.

Mizzou KSU
Points Per Minute
1.80
2.20
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.02
1.24
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.18
1.33
2-PT FG% 33.3%
52.3%
3-PT FG% 52.6%
54.5%
FT% 66.7%
60.0%
True Shooting % 51.3%
62.5%
Mizzou KSU
Assists 17
24
Steals 6
5
Turnovers 16
16
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.44
1.81
Mizzou KSU
Expected Offensive Rebounds 14
12
Offensive Rebounds 11
15
Difference -3

+3

  • I knew KSU had the size to disrupt the games of DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons, but I figured turnovers would carry the day for Mizzou.  KSU has been quite bad about turning the ball over, and that played into Mizzou's hands.  But kudos instead go to KSU for taking the game to Mizzou.  They played faster than Mizzou and pressured harder, and it was clear that Mizzou wasn't ready for that or used to that happening.  I'm far from sold on Frank Martin's overall coaching ability, but he ruled the roost last night.
  • The game came down to shooting and ball control, and KSU dominated in both.  Mizzou came nowhere near their season average in BCI, while KSU just about doubled the BCI of Mizzou's season opponents.  Like I said, they took the game to Mizzou.
  • Oh yeah, and last night K-State shot better than they have all year, as most exemplified by the ridiculous front-rim roll-in on the shot at the halftime buzzer (which just screamed "You may have built some momentum, but this is not your night, so stop thinking otherwise.") and the even more ridiculous rhythm Jacob Pullen (a 32.5% 3-point shooter before last night...and a 34.4% shooter after last night) found in the second half.
  • KSU's size impacted Mizzou as well, as shown in the rebounding figures.  They were both bigger and more aggressive, and...well, that's a pretty good combination.
Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 22.01 0.67 19 Pts, 5 Reb (3 Off), 2 Ast, 2 Stl
Zaire Taylor 16.60 0.49 6 Pts, 5 Reb, 7 Ast, 4 TO
Matt Lawrence 16.02 0.62 17 Pts
Leo Lyons 15.64 0.87 13 Pts, 5 Reb, 2 Ast
Laurence Bowers 5.02 1.67 2 Pts, 3 Reb
Kim English 5.02 0.33 6 Pts
Miguel Paul 1.54 0.15 3 Pts
J.T. Tiller 0.19 0.01 4 Pts, 4 Reb, 2 Ast, 4 TO
Keith Ramsey -1.35 -0.06 2 Pts, 2 Reb
Justin Safford -2.70 -0.68 nothing worth mentioning
Marcus Denmon -5.98 -0.50 0 Pts on 5 shots, 2 TO

AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • Okay, I realize that there are a ton of factors that go into playing time that don't necessarily translate to stats--how a guy practices, how he plays team defense, etc.--but I'm really starting to struggle with how many minutes Laurence Bowers is (not) getting.  He does more in less time than almost anybody on the team, and while he's still obviously very raw, he's already more of a pure offensive threat than the other members of the Jaureth Bamford combo (Safford, Ramsey).  He by no means dominates during 100% of his opportunities, but...neither does anybody else.  I like Justin Safford's passing, but Bowers really needs more of an opportunity to show what he can do.  [/ soapbox]
  • Here's where I wish I had "close-game" stats like I do for football.  DeMarre, Leo and Zaire Taylor all ended up with great stat lines, but when the game was actually close (relatively speaking), DeMarre was average, Leo was Bad Leo, and Zaire Taylor had repeated brain farts regarding how to handle a half-court trap.
  • Before the game, the story was about Marcus Denmon and the fact that he would be playing in front of so many friends and family at Bramlage...let's just say that he didn't necessarily handle the extra pressure very well and move on, mmmkay?

vs Big 12
Mizzou: 4-2

Mizzou Opp.
Points Per Minute
2.09 1.80
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.13 0.98
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.39 1.25
2-PT FG% 51.7% 45.6%
3-PT FG% 41.8% 34.9%
FT% 67.1% 72.3%
True Shooting %
58.7% 52.9%
Mizzou Opp.
Assists 110 76
Steals 63 41
Turnovers 83 115
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.08 1.02
Mizzou Opp.
Expected Offensive Rebounds 74 77
Offensive Rebounds 64 77
Difference -10 +0
  • This was another one of those "market correction" games, but overall Mizzou still looks great statistically.  Unfortunately, they've already played their three home games against (possibly) the three worst teams in the conference, so it only gets harder from here.
  • In one game, Mizzou's 3pt% allowed in conference went from 29.8% (great) to 34.9% (average).  And one thing's for certain: Baylor takes an unapologetic number of 3-pointers (22 per game), hot or cold...so that average is either going up or down another 5% after Saturday.
Player AdjGS/Gm* GS/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 17.29 0.62 15.7 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.2 BPG
Zaire Taylor 11.24 0.43 6.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.3 APG, 1.2 SPG
Leo Lyons 10.05 0.55 11.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 SPG
Marcus Denmon 8.02 0.46 9.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.5 APG
Matt Lawrence 7.58 0.37 8.5 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG
J.T. Tiller 7.39 0.32 8.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 2.0 SPG
Keith Ramsey 6.71 0.34 6.7 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.0 BPG
Kim English 6.35 0.39 7.2 PPG, 1.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.0 SPG
Laurence Bowers 4.88 0.59 5.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Miguel Paul 3.44 0.29 2.7 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.5 APG
Justin Safford 2.75 0.31 3.0 PPG, 2.3 RPG
Michael Anderson Jr. 0.76 0.13 0.0 PPG, 1.0 RPG
Jarrett Sutton 0.25 0.08 1.5 PPG
Steve Moore -0.49 -0.09 1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG
  • It's been a while since we've had a "Tiller carries the team on his back for 40 minutes" game, so...how's about we see another one of those soon?  Even with the egg Marcus Denmon just laid in Manhattan, and even with the 7 steals Tiller had against Tech, Denmon is still dwarfing JT statistically.  Let's fix that.

Bottom line: a) this game sucked, and b) let's not read too much into it.  Games like this happen to all but the top 10% or so of basketball teams, and Mizzou is not one of those teams this year.  They're a good team aiming for a 6-10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and as we know from previous 6-10 seeds from the Norm and Quin eras, losses like this happen.  The key is to bounce back against Baylor on Saturday.  Even if Baylor wins, make sure they had to play beyond lights out to do it.

Rachel Phelps Update: still six pieces of the puzzle (i.e. wins) to go.

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