Week 7 Picks!
by Bill C. on Oct 14, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
in National Football 2009
13 comments
Another strangely consistent week last week...
Last Week: The last three weeks have seen results of 31-18-1, 31-19, and a small drop to 28-20-1. Again, if consistency was rewarded in Vegas, you know who to consult.
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 28-20-1 (58.2%) |
169-111-3 (60.2%) |
| Big 12 | 3-2-1 (58.3%) |
28-16-2 (63.0%) |
| "LOCKS" | 2-0 | 17-9-1 (64.8%) |
As the preseason projections get phased out of the "+" equations and this year's data takes on more significance (we're up to 70% this year, 30% projection), some interesting quirks in the data begin to appear. For instance, take the craziness that are this week's Big 12 picks. Either the numbers are getting cocky, or they know something Vegas does not. They disagree with Vegas by 5.9 points in the OU-Texas game, 12.6 in Tech-NU, 11.6 in KU-CU, and 9.0 in MU-OSU. And they have Colorado and Mizzou winning outright. Interesting.
As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Sat., Oct. 17 | 11:00am | Oklahoma vs Texas | OU by 2.4 |
OU +3.5 |
OU (WIN) |
| 2:30pm |
Texas Tech at Nebraska |
NU by 23.1 (?) |
NU -10.5 |
||
| 6:00pm |
Baylor at Iowa State |
ISU by 0.1 |
ISU -2.5 |
||
| Kansas at Colorado |
CU by 2.1 (?) |
CU +9.5 |
CU (WIN) |
||
| Texas A&M at Kansas State |
ATM by 7.9 |
ATM -5.5 |
|||
| 8:15pm |
Missouri at OSU |
Mizzou by 2.0 (?) |
Mizzou +7 |
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Wed., Oct. 14 |
7:00pm |
Boise State at Tulsa |
Boise by 2.3 |
Boise -9.5 |
Tulsa (WIN) |
| Thurs., Oct. 15 |
6:30pm |
Cincinnati at South Florida |
Cincy by 6.6 |
Cincy -3 |
Cincy (WIN) |
| Fri., Oct. 16 |
7:00pm |
Pittsburgh at Rutgers |
Pitt by 6.9 |
Pitt -3 |
Pitt (WIN) |
| Sat., Oct. 17 |
11:00am |
Bowling Green at Ball State |
BSU by 0.1 |
BSU +3 |
|
| Delaware State at Michigan |
Michigan by 45.2 |
N/A |
|||
| Iowa at Wisconsin |
Wiscy by 7.5 |
Wiscy -2.5 |
|||
| Louisville at UConn |
UConn by 11.1 |
UConn -13 |
Louisville (TIE) |
||
| Northwestern at Michigan State |
MSU by 18.9 |
MSU -13.5 |
|||
| Ohio State at Purdue |
tOSU by 6.4 |
tOSU -14 |
Purdue (WIN) |
||
| Oklahoma vs Texas |
OU by 2.4 |
OU +3.5 |
OU (WIN) |
||
| Wake Forest at Clemson |
Clemson by 13.3 |
Clemson -7 |
Clemson (WIN) |
||
| 11:21am |
Georgia at Vanderbilt |
UGa by 17.7 |
UGa -7.5 |
UGa (WIN) |
|
| 11:30am |
Miss. State at Middle Tennessee |
MTSU by 9.2 |
MTSU +4.5 |
||
| 12:00pm |
Army at Temple |
Temple by 4.1 |
Temple -9.5 |
||
| 1:00pm |
Miami-OH at Ohio |
Ohio by 5.2 |
Ohio -14 |
||
| Wyoming at Air Force |
AFA by 0.8 |
AFA -10.8 |
Wyoming (WIN) |
||
| 2:00pm |
Nevada at Utah State |
Nevada by 7.9 |
Nevada -9.5 |
USU (WIN) |
|
| 2:30pm |
Akron at Buffalo |
Buffalo by 3.3 |
Buffalo -9 |
Akron (WIN) |
|
| Arkansas at Florida |
Florida by 14.4 |
Florida -24 |
Hogs (WIN) |
||
| California at UCLA |
UCLA by 9.5 |
UCLA +3.5 |
|||
| Central Mich. at Western Mich. |
CMU by 2.1 |
CMU -6.5 |
|||
| Houston at Tulane |
UH by 7.1 (?) |
UH -17 |
|||
| Marshall at West Virginia |
WVU by 6.7 (?) |
WVU -20.5 |
MARSHALL (WIN!) |
||
| Minnesota at Penn State |
PSU by 17.0 |
PSU -16.5 |
PSU (WIN) |
||
| N.C. State at Boston College |
BC by 8.6 |
BC -2.5 |
BC (WIN) |
||
| Rice at East Carolina |
ECU by 6.0 |
ECU -18 |
|||
| Texas Tech at Nebraska |
NU by 23.1 (?) |
NU -10.5 |
|||
| USC at Notre Dame |
USC by 9.7 |
USC -10 |
ND (WIN) |
||
| 3:00pm |
Colorado State at TCU |
TCU by 18.2 |
TCU -22 |
||
| Kent State at Eastern Mich. |
EMU by 7.1 |
EMU +7 (?) |
|||
| Virginia at Maryland |
UVa by 6.4 |
UVa -3.5 |
UVa (WIN) |
||
| 4:00pm |
Hawaii at Idaho |
Idaho by 7.1 |
Idaho -9.5 |
||
| 5:00pm |
BYU at San Diego State |
BYU by 12.9 |
BYU -17 |
SDSU (WIN) |
|
| New Mexico St. at Louisiana Tech |
La Tech by 12.8 |
La Tech -20 |
|||
| Stanford at Arizona |
Arizona by 11.6 |
Arizona -4.5 |
Arizona (WIN) |
||
| Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech |
VT by 10.7 |
VT -3 |
|||
| 6:00pm |
Baylor at Iowa State |
ISU by 0.1 |
ISU -2.5 |
||
| Illinois at Indiana |
Indiana by 0.1 |
Indiana +2 |
Indiana (WIN) |
||
| Kansas at Colorado |
CU by 2.1 (?) |
CU +9.5 |
CU (WIN) |
||
| Memphis at Southern Miss |
USM by 10.1 |
USM -14 |
|||
| Northern Illinois at Toledo |
Toledo by 1.8 |
Toledo +5.5 |
Toledo (WIN) |
||
| Texas A&M at Kansas State |
ATM by 7.9 |
ATM -5.5 |
|||
| Troy at Florida International |
Troy by 13.0 |
Troy -10 |
|||
| UAB at Ole Miss |
Ole Miss by 19.9 |
Ole Miss -22 |
|||
| UL-Lafayette at Western Ky. |
ULL by 0.6 |
ULL -7.5 |
|||
| 6:30pm |
Kentucky at Auburn |
Auburn by 7.6 |
Auburn -14 |
UK (WIN) |
|
| Miami-FL at Central Florida |
Miami by 19.2 |
Miami -14.5 |
Miami (WIN) |
||
| 6:45pm |
South Carolina at Alabama |
'Bama by 27.2 |
'Bama -17 |
||
| 7:00pm |
Florida Atlantic at North Texas |
FAU by 0.3 |
UNT -2 |
FAU (WIN) |
|
| Navy at SMU |
Navy by 3.5 |
Navy -7.5 |
SMU (WIN) |
||
| 8:15pm |
Missouri at Oklahoma State |
Mizzou by 2.0 (?) |
Mizzou +7 |
||
| 9:00pm |
San Jose State at Fresno State |
FSU by 17.5 |
FSU -19.5 |
||
| Utah at UNLV |
Utah by 0.8 (?) |
Utah -16.5 |
|||
| 9:15pm |
Washington at Arizona State |
U-Dub by 12.9 |
U-Dub +6.5 |
- Unless I've done the math wrong, it's looking like
four(five: missed Washington initially)(six: missed Utah too...good lord) "LOCKS" this week after only two last week. Remember, the criteria for "LOCK" status is a disagreement of more than 13 points between my projections and the spread. Two years ago, Arizona State won 10 games. Last year, Washington lost 12. This year, Washington is favored by almost a touchdown at Arizona State...and I have them covering. College football is fun.Reading comprehension is a good thing. Washington's actually a 6.5-point DOG.- I have no idea why Houston and West Virginia are only projected to win their games over seemingly vastly inferior opponents by 7 or less. None.
- And yes, Middle Tennessee is almost projected to beat Mississippi State by double digits. The numbers love MTSU for some reason.
Like I said, either the numbers are brilliant, or they're just getting cocky here. Some very interesting picks, to say the least.
0 recs |
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Nebraska by 23??
Wow.
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
by kidbourbon on Oct 14, 2009 3:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Are you factoring in no Dez?
Last week Mizzou was projected to lose at Ok State, now you have them winning. Is this because last week changed the numbers that much or because you factored in the Pokes not having Bryant?
by danman31 on Oct 14, 2009 6:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You have ANOTHER LOCK
Washington is actually a 6.5 dog at Arizona State.
Based on your projections U-Dub is now another lock, which is not a bad thing as the numbers have been very solid on Pac-10 games.
by Escoot on Oct 14, 2009 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
ahh, whoops...
…I read that one wrong. Good catch.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
by Bill C. on Oct 15, 2009 5:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and right above U-Dub we have UNLV
UNLV then too based on the 13 point threshold
by Escoot on Oct 15, 2009 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good lord...
…I was apparently tired at the end of the post or something…
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
by Bill C. on Oct 15, 2009 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does that seem counter intuitive to others?
To me it always seems the PAC-10 year in and year out is a wonderland of inconstancy. Teams losing to who they shouldn’t and visa versa.
However, the numbers don’t lie, and this too shall pass.
Sponsor of the Will Ebner Physical Therapy Center for Will Ebners' Torn Lateral Meniscus Get Better Quick Fund. Or the SWEPTCWETLMGBQF for short.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Oct 15, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love that quote
Making you feel old since 9/26/09
by solidpit on Oct 15, 2009 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe you're just thinking of USC :-)
"The field mouse is fast but the owl sees at night"
by pinkelposse on Oct 15, 2009 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
and Cal, even this year
Sponsor of the Will Ebner Physical Therapy Center for Will Ebners' Torn Lateral Meniscus Get Better Quick Fund. Or the SWEPTCWETLMGBQF for short.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Oct 15, 2009 8:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Like I said, either the numbers are brilliant, or they're just getting cocky here. "
You said that last week… and the numbers seemed to do ok. Though if you go back and look at the last one, are the ones it got wrong the ones you thought were crazy and cocky, or was it a more random thing?
Would computer + bill be better?
(incidentally, the data on this is pretty clear, with complex judgments, on things ranging from gambling to psychiatric diagnoses, the computer pretty much wins every time, and people just make it worse. Some crazy data, and widely ignored by gamblers and psychiatrists alike :)
I want to trade players between my teams. Spoon can go to the Leafs (truculossity!), and Vesa can go to the Tigers, where conceding 6 points a game puts you at the top of the league, not the bottom.
by Wan Ihite on Oct 15, 2009 10:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not Bill, but here is what I do with the kooky numbers (e.g. Nebraska by 23)
I just disregard them. However, I should probably go back and see what percentage of the numbers I considered “kooky” actually hit. Probably more than I realize.
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
by kidbourbon on Oct 16, 2009 8:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
25-27-2 today...good god, everything about today sucked...
…missed FIVE games by a half-point. Jesus.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
by Bill C. on Oct 18, 2009 1:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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