Week 7 Picks!

Another strangely consistent week last week...

Last Week: The last three weeks have seen results of 31-18-1, 31-19, and a small drop to 28-20-1.  Again, if consistency was rewarded in Vegas, you know who to consult.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 28-20-1 (58.2%)
169-111-3 (60.2%)
Big 12 3-2-1 (58.3%)
28-16-2 (63.0%)
"LOCKS" 2-0 17-9-1 (64.8%)


As the preseason projections get phased out of the "+" equations and this year's data takes on more significance (we're up to 70% this year, 30% projection), some interesting quirks in the data begin to appear.  For instance, take the craziness that are this week's Big 12 picks.  Either the numbers are getting cocky, or they know something Vegas does not.  They disagree with Vegas by 5.9 points in the OU-Texas game, 12.6 in Tech-NU, 11.6 in KU-CU, and 9.0 in MU-OSU.  And they have Colorado and Mizzou winning outright.  Interesting.

As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Sat., Oct. 17 11:00am Oklahoma vs Texas OU by 2.4
OU +3.5
OU (WIN)

2:30pm
Texas Tech at Nebraska
NU by 23.1 (?)
NU -10.5
NU

6:00pm
Baylor at Iowa State
ISU by 0.1
ISU -2.5
Baylor


Kansas at Colorado
CU by 2.1 (?)
CU +9.5
CU (WIN)


Texas A&M at Kansas State
ATM by 7.9
ATM -5.5
ATM

8:15pm
Missouri at OSU
Mizzou by 2.0 (?)
Mizzou +7
Mizzou


All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Wed., Oct. 14
7:00pm
Boise State at Tulsa
Boise by 2.3
Boise -9.5
Tulsa (WIN)
Thurs., Oct. 15
6:30pm
Cincinnati at South Florida
Cincy by 6.6
Cincy -3
Cincy (WIN)
Fri., Oct. 16
7:00pm
Pittsburgh at Rutgers
Pitt by 6.9
Pitt -3
Pitt (WIN)
Sat., Oct. 17
11:00am
Bowling Green at Ball State
BSU by 0.1
BSU +3
BSU


Delaware State at Michigan
Michigan by 45.2
N/A



Iowa at Wisconsin
Wiscy by 7.5
Wiscy -2.5
Wiscy


Louisville at UConn
UConn by 11.1
UConn -13
Louisville (TIE)


Northwestern at Michigan State
MSU by 18.9
MSU -13.5
MSU


Ohio State at Purdue
tOSU by 6.4
tOSU -14
Purdue (WIN)


Oklahoma vs Texas
OU by 2.4
OU +3.5
OU (WIN)


Wake Forest at Clemson
Clemson by 13.3
Clemson -7
Clemson (WIN)

11:21am
Georgia at Vanderbilt
UGa by 17.7
UGa -7.5
UGa (WIN)

11:30am
Miss. State at Middle Tennessee
MTSU by 9.2
MTSU +4.5
MTSU

12:00pm
Army at Temple
Temple by 4.1
Temple -9.5
Army

1:00pm
Miami-OH at Ohio
Ohio by 5.2
Ohio -14
Miami


Wyoming at Air Force
AFA by 0.8
AFA -10.8
Wyoming (WIN)

2:00pm
Nevada at Utah State
Nevada by 7.9
Nevada -9.5
USU (WIN)

2:30pm
Akron at Buffalo
Buffalo by 3.3
Buffalo -9
Akron (WIN)


Arkansas at Florida
Florida by 14.4
Florida -24
Hogs (WIN)


California at UCLA
UCLA by 9.5
UCLA +3.5
UCLA


Central Mich. at Western Mich.
CMU by 2.1
CMU -6.5
WMU


Houston at Tulane
UH by 7.1 (?)
UH -17
Tulane


Marshall at West Virginia
WVU by 6.7 (?)
WVU -20.5
MARSHALL (WIN!)


Minnesota at Penn State
PSU by 17.0
PSU -16.5
PSU (WIN)


N.C. State at Boston College
BC by 8.6
BC -2.5
BC (WIN)


Rice at East Carolina
ECU by 6.0
ECU -18
Rice


Texas Tech at Nebraska
NU by 23.1 (?)
NU -10.5
NU


USC at Notre Dame
USC by 9.7
USC -10
ND (WIN)

3:00pm
Colorado State at TCU
TCU by 18.2
TCU -22
CSU


Kent State at Eastern Mich.
EMU by 7.1
EMU +7 (?)
EMU


Virginia at Maryland
UVa by 6.4
UVa -3.5
UVa (WIN)

4:00pm
Hawaii at Idaho
Idaho by 7.1
Idaho -9.5
Hawaii

5:00pm
BYU at San Diego State
BYU by 12.9
BYU -17
SDSU (WIN)


New Mexico St. at Louisiana Tech
La Tech by 12.8
La Tech -20
NMSU


Stanford at Arizona
Arizona by 11.6
Arizona -4.5
Arizona (WIN)


Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
VT by 10.7
VT -3
VT

6:00pm
Baylor at Iowa State
ISU by 0.1
ISU -2.5
Baylor


Illinois at Indiana
Indiana by 0.1
Indiana +2
Indiana (WIN)


Kansas at Colorado
CU by 2.1 (?)
CU +9.5
CU (WIN)


Memphis at Southern Miss
USM by 10.1
USM -14
Memphis


Northern Illinois at Toledo
Toledo by 1.8
Toledo +5.5
Toledo (WIN)


Texas A&M at Kansas State
ATM by 7.9
ATM -5.5
ATM


Troy at Florida International
Troy by 13.0
Troy -10
Troy


UAB at Ole Miss
Ole Miss by 19.9
Ole Miss -22
UAB


UL-Lafayette at Western Ky.
ULL by 0.6
ULL -7.5
WKU

6:30pm
Kentucky at Auburn
Auburn by 7.6
Auburn -14
UK (WIN)


Miami-FL at Central Florida
Miami by 19.2
Miami -14.5
Miami (WIN)

6:45pm
South Carolina at Alabama
'Bama by 27.2
'Bama -17
'Bama

7:00pm
Florida Atlantic at North Texas
FAU by 0.3
UNT -2
FAU (WIN)


Navy at SMU
Navy by 3.5
Navy -7.5
SMU (WIN)

8:15pm
Missouri at Oklahoma State
Mizzou by 2.0 (?)
Mizzou +7
Mizzou

9:00pm
San Jose State at Fresno State
FSU by 17.5
FSU -19.5
SJSU


Utah at UNLV
Utah by 0.8 (?)
Utah -16.5
UNLV

9:15pm
Washington at Arizona State
U-Dub by 12.9
U-Dub +6.5
U-DUB
  • Unless I've done the math wrong, it's looking like four (five: missed Washington initially) (six: missed Utah too...good lord) "LOCKS" this week after only two last week.  Remember, the criteria for "LOCK" status is a disagreement of more than 13 points between my projections and the spread.
  • Two years ago, Arizona State won 10 games.  Last year, Washington lost 12.  This year, Washington is favored by almost a touchdown at Arizona State...and I have them covering.  College football is fun.  Reading comprehension is a good thing.  Washington's actually a 6.5-point DOG.
  • I have no idea why Houston and West Virginia are only projected to win their games over seemingly vastly inferior opponents by 7 or less.  None.
  • And yes, Middle Tennessee is almost projected to beat Mississippi State by double digits.  The numbers love MTSU for some reason.

Like I said, either the numbers are brilliant, or they're just getting cocky here.  Some very interesting picks, to say the least.

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