Updated BTBS Projections

I figure every two weeks is a good time to revisit the BTBS projections and see what's changed.  Obviously with Missouri's loss to Nebraska, the North has changed, but how much?  And who has it helped the most?  Let's take a look.  Bowl projections after the jump.  And I'm telling you...something very strange could end up happening this season.  Right now, for the second straight projections post in a row, there are 68 bowl slots available...and 68 projected bowl-eligible teams.  Yikes.  If teams like Florida State, Virginia, Central Florida, SMU, Temple, etc., don't make it to six wins...well, I'm not sure what happens at that point.

Big 12

North Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Nebraska 7-1 10-3 Cotton
Missouri 5-3 9-3 Sun
Colorado 4-4 5-7
Kansas 2-6 6-6 Independence
Kansas State 2-6 4-8
Iowa State 1-7 4-8
South Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Texas 8-0 13-0 BCS Championship
Oklahoma 6-2 8-4 Holiday
Oklahoma State 6-2 9-3 Alamo
Texas Tech 5-3 8-4 Insight
Texas A&M 2-6 5-7
Baylor 0-8 3-9

 

  • I'll say this.  Monsoon = bad for projections.  Both Nebraska and Missouri received some pretty solid ratings bumps after October 8...and then neither lived up to those projections the next week.  But they're still in there, and it makes sense that both are projected kindly the rest of the way.  Neither team is projected to lose the rest of the year to a team not named Texas.  It is what it is, I guess.
  • The most interesting projection has to be Colorado at 4-4 and Kansas at 2-6.  As The Beef and I were discussing earlier today, Kansas doesn't have a gimme win the rest of the season, and due to that alone, you have to figure their North title hopes are on life support.  Their schedule the rest of the way: OU, @Tech, @KSU, NU, @Texas, vs Missouri.  Ouch.  Obviously they could win any of those games aside from the trip to Austin, but the projections currently say they'll lose all of them but K-State.

    (Side note: if KU really does fall apart and go 6-6 with Todd Reesing and their two best WRs of all-time, while Missouri goes 8-4/9-3 with an almost completely new cast of characters, do you think Gary Pinkel will finally get credit for being a better coach than Mark Mangino?  Me neither.)
  • The South, in comparison, is quite predictable.
  • In this scenario, I would say that Nebraska-to-Cotton is pretty obvious.  After that I'm not completely sure what would happen--I'm assuming the Holiday would have trouble passing up OU, especially considering which Pac-10 will await.  Then it's OSU vs MU for Alamo and Sun.  Not sure what the pecking order is, really, but I had Mizzou-to-Sun simply to avoid back-to-back Alamo Bowls.  You'll laugh when you see who Mizzou plays.

ACC

Atlantic Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Clemson 5-3 9-4 Orange
Boston College 5-3 8-4 Champs Sports
Florida State 4-4 6-6 Music City
Wake Forest 3-5 5-7
N.C. State 2-6 5-7
Maryland 2-6 3-9
Coastal Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Virginia Tech 7-1 10-3 Chick-Fil-A
Miami-FL 7-1 11-1 Sugar
Georgia Tech 6-2 9-3 Gator
Virginia 5-3 6-6 Meineke Car Care
North Carolina 1-7 5-7
Duke 1-7 3-9
  • The ACC is a big fat mess right now.  The three most highly-touted teams in the conference are in the Coastal, but the teams with the highest S&P+ ratings are Miami (who is screwed because they lose the tie-breaker to VT) and Clemson.  So I have Clemson beating Va Tech in the conference title game and a 1-loss Miami team claiming another BCS slot.
  • Gotta like the balls on Virginia...they didn't want extra credit for beating William & Mary, so they said "Screw it! We'll throw that game and still get to six wins!"  Or something like that.
  • I swear I didn't plan this, but I'm loving the bowl draw Florida State ends up with as well.

Big East


Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Cincinnati 7-0 12-0 Orange
South Florida 5-2 9-3 Meineke Car Care
Connecticut 5-2 8-4 St. Petersburg
Pittsburgh 4-3 8-4 International
West Virginia 4-3 8-4 PapaJohns.com
Louisville 2-5 5-7
Syracuse 1-6 4-8
Rutgers 0-7 4-8
  • Back to the top for Cincinnati after Pittsburgh took the top spot two weeks ago.  Obviously Tony Pike needs to be healthy for them to run the table, but with the tie-breaker over South Florida, it does appear that they'll have at least one game's worth of leeway.
  • I'll be very interested to see how UConn responds to Saturday night's tragedy.  When you lose a player like that, things could go either way--either you come together and get really hot, or the team just really can't focus very well overall on football.
  • Rutgers, Rutgers, Rutgers...

Big Ten


Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Iowa 7-1 11-1 Rose
Penn State 7-1 11-1 Fiesta
Wisconsin 6-2 10-2 Capital One
Ohio State 6-2 9-3 Outback
Minnesota 4-4 7-5 Champs Sports
Purdue 4-4 5-7
Michigan 3-5 7-5 Alamo
Michigan State 3-5 5-7
Indiana 2-6 5-7
Northwestern 1-7 4-8
Illinois 1-7 2-10
  • Ohio State's sad loss to Purdue opens up the door for Iowa and Penn State at the top...and Iowa wins the tie-breaker.  A 1-loss Penn State team is still probably a pretty good BCS conference draw.
  • Honestly, Ohio State would probably still get into the Capital One Bowl over Bucky Badger, but we'll stick with this.
  • Michigan State has been playing a lot better lately, so it wouldn't surprise me if they ended up moving over the six-win mark.
  • Illinois, Illinois, Illinois...

Conference USA

East Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Marshall 5-3 7-6 Hawaii
Southern Miss 4-4 6-6 St. Petersburg
Central Florida 4-4 6-6 GMAC
East Carolina 4-4 5-7
Memphis 3-5 4-8
UAB 3-5 3-9
West Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Tulsa 8-0 11-2 Liberty
Houston 6-2 10-2 Armed Forces
SMU 5-3 6-6 New Orleans
UTEP 4-4 5-7
Tulane 1-7 3-9
Rice 1-7 1-11
  • With Austin Davis' injury, the East Division has completely become a tossup.  Your guess is as good as anybody else's, but right now the projections are for a surprising Marshall team to get the nod and serve as the sacrificial lamb in the conference title game against the Tulsa-Houston winner...
  • ...which I have projected as Tulsa.
  • SMU in a bowl...how great would that be...

Independents


Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Notre Dame -- 9-3 Gator
Navy -- 9-4 Texas
Army -- 4-8
  • I'll give Notre Dame this much: their projection continues to creep upward.  It was 6-6 in August, 8-4 two weeks ago, and now 9-3.  Their season could still go in a lot of different ways however.  Here are some of the projected margins of their remaining games: beat BC by 0.7, beat Navy by 7.8, lose to Pitt by 0.2, beat UConn by 0.2, beat Stanford by 5.4.  They are 0.2 points from going 10-2 and likely muddying the BCS bowl waters...and they're about seven points from going 6-6.

MAC

East Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Ohio 7-1 9-4 International
Bowling Green 7-1 8-4 Insight
Temple 5-3 6-6 EagleBank
Akron 3-5 4-8
Kent State 3-5 4-8
Buffalo 1-7 3-9
Miami-OH 1-7 1-11
West Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Central Michigan 7-1 10-3 Motor City
Northern Illinois 6-2 8-4 GMAC
Western Michigan 6-2 7-5 Emerald
Toledo 5-3 7-5 Texas
Eastern Michigan 1-7 2-10
Ball State 0-8 0-12
  • Quietly, Ohio has been winning some games this year...with only losses to UConn and Tennessee and wins over Bowling Green, Akron, and Miami, they are building some nice momentum for a division title.  Bowling Green is projected to win out, but their one loss could be a killer.
  • And Temple's still going to be bowl eligible!!!
  • Speaking of bowl eligibility...thank goodness for MAC teams.  Without Temple, Toledo, and Western Michigan sneaking past 5 wins, there wouldn't be enough bowl-eligible teams.

Mountain West


Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
TCU 8-0 12-0 Las Vegas
BYU 7-1 10-2 Armed Forces
Utah 6-2 9-3 Poinsettia
Colorado State 5-3 8-4 New Mexico
Air Force 4-4 6-6 Humanitarian
San Diego State 3-5 5-7
Wyoming 2-6 4-8
UNLV 1-7 3-9
New Mexico 0-8 0-12
  • TCU's ratings saw a nice boost after they trounced a Colorado State team projected as one of the better teams in the conference.  They are projected to a) go undefeated, and b) get totally screwed out of a BCS bowl bid because of Boise State and the huge names sitting at one loss.
  • Meanwhile, it looks like Wyoming's nice run is going to start to fizzle.

Pac-10


Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Oregon 9-0 11-1 Rose
USC 7-2 10-2 Holiday
Oregon State 6-3 7-5 Sun
California 5-4 8-4 Las Vegas
UCLA 4-5 7-5 Poinsettia
Arizona 4-5 5-7
Stanford 4-5 5-7
Washington 4-5 5-7
Arizona State 2-7 4-8
Washington State 0-9 1-11
  • The numbers have loved Oregon all year, and that hasn't changed.  The winner of UO-USC in Eugene seems by far the most likely to win the conference, and Oregon gets the nod by an impressive 8.6 points at the moment.
  • That's right, Oregon State to the Sun.  Again.  Not only did they play there last year (in the epic 3-0 win over Pitt), but they were Mizzou's opponent last time we went to the Sun Bowl.  Good times.  Would love to see UCLA there instead.
  • Man oh man, do the Pac-10 and Big East need a better set of bowls.

SEC

East Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Florida 8-0 13-0 BCS Championship
Georgia 5-3 8-4 Chick-Fil-A
Tennessee 5-3 8-4 Outback
Kentucky 3-5 7-5 PapaJohns.com
South Carolina 3-5 6-6 Music City
Vanderbilt 0-8 2-10
West Division Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Alabama 8-0 12-1 Sugar
Arkansas 5-3 9-3 Cotton
LSU 5-3 9-3 Capital One
Auburn 3-5 7-5 Liberty
Ole Miss 2-6 6-6 Independence
Mississippi State 1-7 3-9
  • Florida started the season with a gigantic advantage over everybody.  They've still got one over most teams, but Alabama has crept to within a point.  Clearly they need to start rounding into shape for the stretch run...though if they're getting calls like they got in the fourth quarter on Saturday, I guess maybe they don't need to.
  • Arkansas is still looking at a rock-solid season, though Auburn's projection has fallen a game.  Can't lose to Kentucky...even though UK's now looking at a pretty solid finish to the season.
  • Bobby Bowden's (potential) final opponent in the Music City Bowl?  Steve Spurrier.  Sweet.
  • The Independence Bowl is shaping up as the Disappointments Bowl, pitting Ole Miss and Kansas against each other.

Sun Belt


Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Troy 8-0 9-3 New Orleans
Florida Atlantic 6-2 7-5 EagleBank
UL-Monroe 6-2 7-5 Emerald
Middle Tennessee 5-3 7-5 Motor City
Arkansas State 4-4 5-7
North Texas 3-5 5-7
UL-Lafayette 2-6 4-8
Florida International 2-6 2-10
Western Kentucky 0-8 0-12
  • Not a lot to say here.  UL-Monroe is still in line for their first bowl bid ever, which is pretty cool.  I always enjoy the underdog story.  And I watched part of their win over Arkansas State on ESPN2 the other night...they've got some speed.  No size whatsoever, but speed.

WAC


Proj.
Conf.
Proj.
Overall
Proj.
Bowl
Boise State 8-0 13-0 Fiesta
Nevada 7-1 8-4 Hawaii
Fresno State 6-2 8-4 New Mexico
Idaho 5-3 8-4 Humanitarian
Louisiana Tech 3-5 4-8
Utah State 3-5 4-8
San Jose State 2-6 3-9
Hawaii 1-7 4-9
New Mexico State 1-7 3-10
  • Idaho!!  I'm pretty sure no fanbase would be more thrilled to play on the blue field in late-December than the Vandals'.
  • Nevada still looking at making Missouri look pretty good.  Their only projected loss the rest of the way is (predictably) at Boise State.

Bowl Projections

Date Bowl Tie-ins Matchup
12/19 New Mexico MWC vs WAC Colorado State (8-4) vs Fresno State (8-4)
12/19 St. Petersburg Big East vs C-USA Connecticut (8-4) vs Southern Miss (6-6)
12/20 New Orleans C-USA vs Sun Belt #1 Troy (9-3) vs SMU (6-6)
12/22 Las Vegas MWC #1 vs Pac-10 TCU (12-0) vs California (8-4)
12/23 Poinsettia MWC vs Pac-10 #6 Utah (9-3) vs UCLA (7-5)
12/24 Hawaii C-USA vs WAC Nevada (8-4) vs Marshall (7-6)
12/26 Little Caesar's Pizza! Pizza!
Big Ten #7 vs MAC Central Michigan (10-3) vs Middle Tennessee (7-5)
12/26 Meineke Car Care ACC #5-7 vs Big East #3 South Florida (9-3) vs Virginia (6-6)
12/26 Emerald ACC #5-7 vs Pac-10 Western Michigan (7-5) vs UL-Monroe (7-5)
12/27 Music City ACC #5-7 vs SEC
Florida State (6-6) vs South Carolina (6-6)
12/28 Independence Big 12 vs SEC Kansas (6-6) vs Ole Miss (6-6)
12/29 Eagle Bank ACC #8 vs Army Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs Temple (6-6)
12/29 Champs Sports ACC #4 vs Big Ten #4-5 Boston College (8-4) vs Minnesota (7-5)
12/30 Humanitarian MWC vs WAC Idaho (8-4) vs Air Force (6-6)
12/30 Holiday Big 12 #3 vs Pac-10 #2 USC (10-2) vs Oklahoma (8-4)
12/30 Texas Big 12 #8 vs Navy Navy (9-4) vs Toledo (7-5)
12/31 Armed Forces C-USA vs MWC Houston (10-2) vs BYU (10-2)
12/31 Sun Big 12 vs Pac-10 #3 Missouri (9-3) vs Oregon State (7-5)
12/31 Insight Big Ten #6 vs Big 12 #6 Bowling Green (8-4) vs Texas Tech (7-5)
12/31 Chick-Fil-A ACC #2 vs SEC Virginia Tech (10-3) vs Georgia (8-4)
1/1 Outback Big Ten #3 vs SEC Ohio State (9-3) vs Tennessee (8-4)
1/1 Capital One Big Ten #2 vs SEC Wisconsin (10-2) vs LSU (9-3)
1/1 Gator ACC #3 vs Big East/ND Georgia Tech (9-3) vs Notre Dame (9-3)
1/1 Rose BCS vs BCS Iowa (11-1) vs Oregon (11-1)
1/1 Sugar BCS vs BCS Alabama (12-1) vs Miami-FL (11-1)
1/2 International Big East vs MAC Pittsburgh (8-4) vs Ohio (9-4)
1/2 PapaJohns.com Big East vs SEC West Virginia (8-4) vs Kentucky (7-5)
1/2 Cotton Big 12 #2 vs SEC Nebraska (10-3) vs Arkansas (9-3)
1/2 Liberty C-USA #1 vs SEC Tulsa (11-2) vs Auburn (7-5)
1/2 Alamo Big Ten #4-5 vs Big 12 #5 Oklahoma State (9-3) vs Michigan (7-5)
1/4 Fiesta BCS vs BCS Boise State (13-0) vs Penn State (11-1)
1/5 Orange BCS vs BCS Cincinnati (12-0) vs Clemson (9-4)
1/6 GMAC ACC #9 vs MAC Northern Illinois (8-4) vs Central Florida (6-6)
1/7 BCS Championship BCS #1 vs BCS #2
Florida (13-0) vs Texas (13-0)
  • Seriously, some great freaking matchups here.

    Alabama vs Miami
    Auburn vs Tulsa (Malzahn versus his old team)
    Florida State vs South Carolina (Bowden vs Spurrier)
    Houston vs BYU
    Georgia Tech vs Notre Dame
    USC vs Oklahoma!
    TCU vs California
  • Temple and SMU in bowl games!!!
  • Still some nasty ones too (NIU vs UCF, Pitt vs Ohio, USF vs UVa), but still...lots of good stuff here.
  • Bruce Feldman currently has Boise State and TCU projected in BCS games, and I would love to have the same, but...I just don't see the bowl committees passing up 1-loss Miami, Alabama, and Penn State teams (not to mention a 2-loss USC team) in favor of the Horned Frogs.  I wish they were forced to do so, but I think only the top non-BCS team is required to be taken (if ranked high enough).  The second one's probably SOL.
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