Week 9 BTBS Picks!

I can feel it...POSITIVITY WEEK will rub off on the BTBS picks as well...

Last Week: Well, the good news is, I didn't do as badly as I thought I did.  An addition error and a transcription error led me to going 24-30-2 instead of the 22-32-2 that I thought.  Woohoo.  So much better.  For next year, I'll need to find the best way to transition from preseason projections (which were damn near dead on for a lot of teams) to the actual season's data when the actual season's data is a bit crazy at first.  I've got some ideas--not weighting strength of schedule as heavily for the first 2/3 of the season, things like that--but we'll see.  For the season we're still doing pretty well...but the last two weeks (49-58-3) have been brutal.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 24-30-2
218-169-6 (56.2%)
Big 12 2-4
32-24-2 (56.9%)
"LOCKS" 2-4
20-18-1 (52.6%)

 

Anyway, we're turning the page on those craptastic weeks.  At a glance, I'm feeling a lot better about this week's picks, so uhh...hopefully that translates to success.  As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Sat., 10/31
11:30am
Nebraska at Baylor
NU by 13.6
NU -14
Baylor

12:30pm
Missouri at Colorado
MU by 3.4
MU -4
Colorado

2:30pm
Iowa State at Texas A&M
ATM by 16.5
ATM -7.5
ATM (WIN)


Kansas at Texas Tech
Tech by 11.9
Tech -7
Tech (WIN)

6:00pm
Kansas State at Oklahoma
OU by 40.4
OU -26.0
OU

7:00pm
Texas at Oklahoma State
Texas by 5.9
Texas -9.5
OSU


Mizzou is still projected to win out this year, but obviously the margins are shrinking.  The trip to Boulder projects as the toughest of the next four games (the numbers still hate K-State), which isn't great since we have no idea what's up with Mizzou's confidence or Blaine Gabbert's ankle.  Beyond that and the Texas-OSU tilt, though, no games are projected very close at all.  We'll see.  Making projections for ATM games right now is a fool's game, but "ATM by 16.5" looks as good as anything else...unless ISU forces another 8 turnovers, anyway.

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs., 10/29
6:30pm
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
VT by 27.6
VT -16.5
VT
Fri., 10/30
7:00pm
West Virginia at South Florida
USF by 5.5
USF +3.5
USF (WIN)
Sat., 10/31
11:00am
Akron at Northern Illinois
NIU by 16.9
NIU -11
NIU (WIN)


Cincinnati at Syracuse
Cincy by 4.9 (?)
Cincy -15.5
Syracuse


Indiana at Iowa
Iowa by 33.7
Iowa -17.5
IOWA (WIN)


N.C. State at Florida State
FSU by 11.4
FSU -7.5
FSU


New Mexico State at Ohio State (??)
tOSU by 38.3
tOSU -41.5
NMSU


Ohio at Ball State
Ohio by 2.6
Ohio -7.5
BSU (WIN)


Purdue at Wisconsin
Wiscy by 20.0
Wiscy -7
WISCY (WIN)


Rutgers at Connecticut
UConn by 28.4
UConn -8.5
UCONN


UL-Lafayette at Florida International
FIU by 7.0
FIU -3.5
FIU

11:21am
Ole Miss at Auburn
Auburn by 8.1
Auburn +3.5
Auburn (WIN)

11:30am
Nebraska at Baylor
NU by 13.6
NU -14
Baylor (WIN)

12:00pm
Southern Miss at Houston
UH by 16.4
UH -6.5
UH (WIN)

12:30pm
Coastal Carolina at Clemson
Clemson by 47.8
N/A



Missouri at Colorado
MU by 3.4
MU -4
Colorado

1:00pm
SMU at Tulsa
Tulsa by 30.4
Tulsa -17
Tulsa


Western Michigan at Kent State
WMU by 2.3
WMU +2.5
WMU

2:00pm
San Jose State at Boise State
Boise by 38.3
Boise -35
Boise (WIN)


UAB at UTEP
UTEP by 11.2
UTEP -7
UTEP

2:30pm
Arkansas State at Louisville
Louisville by 20.0
Louisville -4
L'VILLE (WIN)


California at Arizona State
Cal by 6.9
Cal -6.5
Cal


Central Michigan at Boston College
BC by 13.7
BC -5
BC (WIN)


Duke at Virginia
UVa by 29.9 (?)
UVa -7.5
UVa


Georgia vs Florida
Florida by 18.7
Florida -16
Florida (WIN)


Iowa State at Texas A&M
ATM by 16.5
ATM -7.5
ATM (WIN)


Kansas at Texas Tech
Tech by 11.9
Tech -7
Tech (WIN)


Miami-FL at Wake Forest
Miami by 20.0
Miami -7
MIAMI


Michigan at Illinois
Michigan by 3.3
Michigan -7.5
Illinois (WIN)


Temple at Navy
Navy by 7.5
Navy -6.5
Navy


Toledo at Miami-OH
M-OH by 3.6
M-OH +4.5
M-OH (WIN)

3:00pm
Air Force at Colorado State
CSU by 11.9
CSU +3.5
CSU


Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic
FAU by 11.9
FAU -1.5
FAU


UCLA at Oregon State
OSU by 9.3
OSU -10
UCLA (WIN)


UNLV at TCU
TCU by 40.0
TCU -34
TCU (WIN)


Western Kentucky at North Texas
UNT by 22.1
UNT -11
UNT (WIN)

3:05pm
Hawaii at Nevada
Nevada by 34.1
???
???

3:30pm
Penn State at Northwestern
PSU by 31.2
PSU -14.5
PSU (WIN)

4:00pm
Louisiana Tech at Idaho
Idaho by 12.1
Idaho -3
Idaho


Utah State at Fresno State
Fresno by 19.8
Fresno -17
Fresno

6:00pm
Eastern Michigan at Arkansas
Arky by 43.5
Arky -37.5
Arky


Kansas State at Oklahoma
OU by 40.4
OU -26
OU


Mississippi State at Kentucky
UK by 18.3
UK -3.5
UK


UL-Monroe at Troy
Troy by 17.7
Troy -16.5
Troy (WIN)

6:30pm
Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt
GT by 13.2
GT -11.5
GT (WIN)


New Mexico at San Diego State
SDSU by 24.4
SDSU -17
SDSU


Washington State vs Notre Dame
ND by 18.1
ND -28.5
Wazzu (WIN)

6:45pm
South Carolina at Tennessee
Tenn by 17.4
Tenn -5
Tenn (WIN)

7:00pm
Michigan State at Minnesota
Minny by 10
Minny +4.5
MINNY (WIN)


Texas at Oklahoma State
Texas by 5.9
Texas -9.5
OSU


Tulane at LSU
LSU by 31.0
LSU -35
Tulane


USC at Oregon
Oregon by 11.7
Oregon +3
OREGON (WIN)


Wyoming at Utah
Utah by 12.1
Utah -17
Wyoming (WIN)
Sun., 11/1
7:15pm
Marshall at Central Florida
UCF by 8.6
UCF -3.5
UCF
  • Can't find a line yet on Nevada-Hawaii...will add that to the table when one comes about.
  • Vegas and the projections are much more in line this week, which a) makes me feel more comfortable with my projections overall, and b) makes for some tough picks.  Lots of games' projections are within a point or so of the spread, meaning a field goal here or a missed PAT there could make the difference...and that makes for iffy betting, no?
  • Not too many baffling picks, though projecting Virginia to beat anybody by 29.9 requires a bit of a leap in logic.  Meanwhile, Cincy is projected close to Syracuse because of some of the adjustments I'm making in the way I calculate home-field advantage.  Syracuse tends to play much better at home than on the road (everybody does, but 'Cuse is extreme about it), so they get an extra boost.  But with a rather unsettled QB situation at Cincy and the fact that the Orange have been at least a bit salty at times this year, I guess it's not out of the realm of possibility that the game could be close.
  • Not a lot of big games on this week's schedule, though UT-OSU could be pretty epic.  In all, it looks like Cincy and Texas are the most likely of the undefeated teams to lose this week...and they're still not tremendously likely.
  • As always, my quick math could be wrong, but it looks like we've got eight "LOCKS" this week...though since "LOCKS" are actually doing worse than my overall picks, I should probably come up with a better name for them.  Maybe "BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SPREAD AND PROJECTION, BUT DON'T TAKE THIS AS A LOCK BECAUSE APPARENTLY THIS DOESN'T MEAN A LOT" picks, or BDBSAPBDTTAALBATDMAL for short.
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