SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable - Big 12 North Roulette Edition Recap

by RPT on Oct 29, 2009 2:15 PM CDT in National Football 2009 Comment 18 comments

his week's SB Nation Big 12 Roundtable Recap takes a look at some of the different thoughts expressed around the Big 12 blogosphere. This week's participants included Double T Nation, I Am The 12th Man, Clone Chronicles, a power rankings submission from Rock M Nation, Corn Nation, and Bring On The Cats.

1. This question was posed by Rock Chalk Talk's Denverjhawk in Rock M Nation's Live Thread on Saturday: Could a Big 12 North all-star team compete with and/or beat Texas?

It's a small sample size, but the group seems to agree that Texas would be beatable in this scenario. BracketCat of Bring On The Cats actually went through and created a two-deep for a North all-star team.

WR X: Jared Perry (MU) / Scotty McKnight (CU)
LT: Nick Stringer (KSU) / Tanner Hawkinson (KU)
LG: Alex Alvarez (ISU) / Keith Williams (NU)
C: Jeremiah Hatch (KU) / Wade Weibert (KSU)
RG: Ricky Henry (NU) / Kurtis Gregory (MU)
RT: Dan Hoch (MU) / Ryan Miller (CU)
TE: Riar Geer (CU) / Jeron Mastrud (KSU)
QB: Todd Reesing (KU) / Blaine Gabbert (MU) (if healthy)
RB: Alexander Robinson (ISU) / Daniel Thomas (KSU)
WR H: Kerry Meier (KU) / Danario Alexander (MU)
WR Z: Dezmon Briscoe (KU) / Brandon Banks (KSU)

LDE: Jeffrey Fitzgerald (KSU) / Barry Turner (NU)
DT: Ndamukong Suh (NU) / Curtis Cunningham (CU)
NT: Jared Crick (NU) / Daniel Calvin (KSU)
RDE: Jake Laptad (KU) / Aldon Smith (MU)
SLB: Sean Fisher (NU) / John Houlik (KSU)
MLB: Jesse Smith (ISU) / Will Ebner (MU)
WLB: Sean Weatherspoon (MU) / Phillip Dillard (NU)
LCB: Cha'pelle Brown (CU) / Joshua Moore (KSU)
FS: David Sims (ISU) / Tysyn Hartman (KSU)
SS: Darrell Stuckey (KU) / Emmanuel Lamur (KSU)
RCB: Chris Harris (KU) / Carl Gettis (MU)

PK: Alex Henery (NU) / Jacob Branstetter (KU)
P: Matt DiLallo (CU) / Mike Brandtner (ISU)
PR: Daymond Patterson (KU)
KR: Brandon Banks (KSU) / Kendial Lawrence (MU)

Head Coach: Bill Snyder (KSU)
Associate Head Coach: Paul Rhoads (ISU)
Offensive Co-Coordinators: Ed Warinner (KU) / David Yost (MU)
Defensive Co-Coordinators: Vic Koenning (KSU) / Carl Pelini (NU)

Two things stand out to me when looking at this list:

1) It quickly becomes clear why Kansas and Kansas State basically will be playing for the Big 12 North title next week.

2) This team could give Texas trouble. It might not win, but Reesing throwing to his and Missouri's receivers would be a major threat. The big weakness is the offensive line. I'm not sure there are enough standouts to hold off the likes of Sergio Kindle.

But ohmygod, that defense. Fitz, Laptad and Suh teeing off on McCoy, while Jesse Smith and 'Spoon prowl the middle, and half a dozen NFL prospects man the defensive backfield? Yeah, that could make a statement. And Banks at returner would be the X-factor offsetting Jordan Shipley's contributions for the Horns.

Hell, Bill Snyder could win a national title with this roster.

2. Forget ACC Roulette. For our intents and purposes, the Big 12 North is now the most entertaining battle of supremacy in mediocrity. Handicap what happens with the division from here.

Taking my phrasing of using the word "handicapping," Mark from Clone Chronicles breaks it down into odds:

K-State: I think they win 1 more game at the most, but I could see them lose out. How funny/sick would it be if they went 4-4, had a share of the Big 12 North lead, yet were not bowl eligible? Remember, they played 2 FCS teams, so they need to get to 7 wins, not 6. I think they finish either 3-5 or 4-4. I'd put a 5% chance on them winning the North.

Iowa State: It all depends on how healthy they are. I look at their schedule and see a small chance at 4-0, decent shot at 3-1, but most likely going 2-2. That would put them at 4-4 in the conference as well. Due to tiebreakers, Iowa State could get to 4-4 with losses to Kansas, K-State, and Missouri, which would put them out of it.. I think they would have to win out to win the North, so I'd put a 5% chance on them winning it as well.

Kansas: I think they lose @ Tech and @ Texas for sure. That puts them best case at 4-4. Losing to Colorado doesn't hurt them too much in tiebreakers if they beat Nebraska, K-State, and Missouri. I'd give them a 35% chance of winning the North.

Nebraska: I would not want to be a Nebraska fan right now. If their offense plays like it has the past two weeks, they win 1 or 2 more games max (@ Baylor and either K-State or @ Colorado). If they can figure out whatever their problem is, all of their games are winnable except for Oklahoma. I think they beat Baylor and Colorado. K-State is a tossup right now. I think Kansas is a loss, if the Jayhawks offense gets going. I think they can get to 4-4, but I could be talked into 3-5 pretty easily. I'd give them a 15% chance of winning the North.

Missouri: Easiest schedule down the stretch: @ Colorado, Baylor, @ K-State, Iowa State, and Kansas (at Arrowhead). Can you find 4 wins from that group? I can. They could even rip off a 5 game winning streak and take this thing. I'd be interesting if Iowa State was at 4-3 and Missouri was at 3-3 the week they played. Since I think they have the only chance to realistically win 5 games, they are my favorite at this point. I give them a 40% chance to win it. Truth be told, if they can win 4 games including Kansas, I think they would win the tie-breakers. They can win 5 of these games, likely will win 3-4, but even at 4, they have a chance to win the North.

Colorado: I think they probably lose out, sorry Ralphie. 0% chance of winning the North this year.

3. Is Oklahoma back on track after taking care of business against Kansas? Their national aspirations are obviously done, but can we expect to see a fairly dominant Sooner team down the stretch?

Skin Patrol of Double T Nation still believes in Oklahoma, though not without a few good-natured barbs.

Er... well they beat Kansas, which means Oklahoma and Colorado have that in common now, I suppose. Cynicism aside, Vegas is still ruthlessly behind Oklahoma, and wise man say: When sinners are behind Sooners, general public should be too. OU politicking aside, the reality is that they've lost to some pretty good teams by some pretty slim margins, and are probably one of the better 4-3 teams in the country. A good rule of thumb for a team as talented and well-coached as Oklahoma is that if it looks dead, it's probably just sleeping.

4. Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Kansas State managed to completely shred the transitive property. What did the games between these schools tell us about these teams?

Husker Mike of Corn Nation unofficially creates the "WTF" category for wins, a category that may or may not include at least 20 games at this point.

Taylor Potts will be transferring from Texas Tech at the end of the season? We knew A&M was bad, and Tech can be pretty good. But A&M's victory in Lubbock defies logic, unless you throw Potts under the bus. I think you've got to throw the A&M victory into the WTF category as the anomaly for now until A&M proves their mettle again. (Hell, even Colorado has managed to win a couple of games this season...)

5. Did Texas find its mojo in Missouri, and does Oklahoma State have enough to take the Horns down in Stillwater this week?

We are shocked -- shocked -- to learn that Beergut of I Am The 12th Man doesn't believe Texas found its mojo.

No, texas didn't find its mojo, they simply played a team that is tanking right now in Missouri. Missouri's leader is their QB, Blaine Gabbert, and with Gabbert injured right now, their offense is struggling. With no offense to lead them, they were sitting ducks for texas' defense. Missouri's defense is nothing to write home about outside of Sean Weatherspoon, so texas' offense looked better than they really are against them.

I do think texas will beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and I don't even think it will be close. OSU doesn't believe they can beat texas, and that mental edge will help texas. I do look forward to watching Joe Wickline's offensive line go up against texas' DL. If Oklahoma State can run the ball, they will make it a game, but I don't think that will happen.

6. Power Poll! Who wins on a neutral field?

Noteworthy: Double T Nation abstained from voting.

1. Texas -- unanimous decision at the top
2. Oklahoma State -- edges out No. 3
3. Oklahoma -- just narrowly misses out sitting at No. 2
4. Texas Tech -- voters appear to think the A&M game was an aberration
5. Kansas State -- Huge variation for the Cats, who varied from No. 4 to No. 10
6. Nebraska -- That defense is top three. That offense is bottom three.
T7. Kansas -- 'Hawks vary between No. 4 and No. 11 on individual ballots
T7. Iowa State -- The Clones are starting to feel the love
9. Missouri -- Tigers in desperate need of a win after rough stretch to open Big 12 play
10. Texas A&M -- Further proof of the lack of trust in the Tech/A&M result
11. Colorado -- Didn't get voted any higher than No. 10
12. Baylor -- Fare thee well, Hot Tub Griffin

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Comments

I've gotta say...

…I only see about 4-5 NFL prospects on that North defense, and I’m not sure it’s any better than the defenses Texas or Oklahoma has.

Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by Bill C. on Oct 29, 2009 3:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

BracketCat's 2 deep looks pretty accurate

though (and maybe I’m being homerish here) I would have Danario Alexander above Kerry Meier.

by leghumpingjihadkiller on Oct 29, 2009 4:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I would have them both over Jared Perry

I assume he was trying to stick pretty closely to the X,H,Z receivers, but am thinking he stuck a bit too close.

Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by Bill C. on Oct 29, 2009 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about some love . . .

for Jake Harry and Grant Ressel?

by Michael Atchison on Oct 29, 2009 4:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

actually that's a good point...

…didn’t even notice that. Henery’s got a case, but DiLallo’s half-terrible.

Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by Bill C. on Oct 29, 2009 6:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually?

Of course it’s a good point. Don’t act surprised.

by Michael Atchison on Oct 29, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's late

Bill needs to get to sleep so he can do the links before harvesting the south field.

Formerly known as Mizzou Grad

by Ausgiano on Oct 29, 2009 9:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

go to bed, you whippersnappers...

Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by Bill C. on Oct 29, 2009 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

KSU vs KU is the game to decide the North?

Wow, this was the statement which lead me to believe that someone from KSU or KU had to write this article. Of course it was someone from KSU.

Have the fans of KSU not looked at their schedule? So far they have played the 3 weakest teams in the Big 12 ( A&M, CU, and ISU) Their next 4 games are against OU, MU, KU, and NU (all 4 of which are very likely to be losses)

Even if KSU wins one of those games in an upset then they finish 4-4 in conference. That record by no means is a winning record. Hell, Mizzou beating KSU, CU, and ISU would give it a record of 4-4 if Mizzou loses to KU. And Mizzou would win the tie breaker.

has KSU already forgot they lost to Louisiana-Lafayette?

by thoran85 on Oct 29, 2009 4:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

No, we haven't forgotten...

…but you’re forgetting that K-State is an improving team now. That loss to UL was almost two months ago, and if you go back and look at Bill Snyder’s teams in the past, they are almost always playing their best football in November. We don’t have the most talented team in the North, but I’d rather be an improving team with momentum than a team that is searching for anything to go right, which is exactly where MU, KU and NU are right now.

I can’t be so bold as to join my colleague in stating that K-State/KU is for the North, because I still think Mizzou and Nebraska will be factors, but other fans blithely dismiss K-State at their peril.

We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats

by TB on Oct 29, 2009 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The weather in Boulder

could very well play a part in all of this as well…Colorado still has home dates with Mizzou and A&M which could turn into wins if weather plays a factor. They also have a road trip to Ames left…the Big 12 North could come down to Nebraska @ Colorado and Missouri vs. Kansas at Arrowhead. K-State could still win it all if they don’t manage to pee down their leg over the next month. Iowa State beating Nebraska really hurt Nebraska’s chances.

by leghumpingjihadkiller on Oct 29, 2009 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm far from blithely dismissive...

…but I will say that K-State would show me more in a 14-point loss to OU than they have in beating the teams they’ve beaten. They can prove themselves legitimate in the North just by keeping it close (since really no one else has, aside from CU for a half against Texas).

Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by Bill C. on Oct 29, 2009 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed that staying with OU would help our perception...

…but I’m not sure that getting blown out by OU proves anything definitively. KU got blasted by OU at home last week in a game that wasn’t as close as it looked. Mizzou also got hammered at home by Texas. Nebraska was dormant in a home loss to Texas Tech. All of those were sound home losses to the South powers (or, in NU’s case, Tech), so even if we do take a four-touchdown drubbing in Norman — which is entirely possible — I don’t necessarily think it shows we’re all that far behind what the other teams in the North have done. Of course, Mizzou, KU and Nebraska could prove that all wrong by sending us into the offseason on a four-game skid.

Also, so that I don’t have to post two comments, I’ll respond to pinkelposse’s comment from below up here. I agree, you absolutely can’t just simply dismiss the ULL loss. However, think about this. For as bad as Iowa State, Colorado, and Texas A&M are — maybe three of the four worst teams in the league, as y’all are forgetting that Baylor is clearly in the cellar — they are all better teams than ULL. I can’t prove that definitively because they haven’t played ULL, and clearly the transitive property is instructive at best this year, but I’d be willing to wager that those three Big 12 teams are better than ULL. Because I believe they are better, and because we’ve beaten them in the last month, I’m pretty confident this team is steadily improving. Even better, it’s gaining confidence. Conversely, Mizzou, KU and Nebraska are all floundering and losing confidence at this point. Of course, as Bill mentioned, all that gained confidence may go right out the window if we go to Norman and get beat by 50.

Look, I can’t prove my point right now, just like y’all can’t prove your point to me. Your arguments are just as valid as mine because everything is such a jumble this year. I probably shouldn’t have even started this discussion, but I couldn’t help myself because I think it’s a stretch to say that K-State faces “likely losses” in its final four games. They absolutely could go 0-4. But again, I feel pretty confident that they’re going to get at least one of those four.

We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats

by TB on Oct 29, 2009 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are right TB

Anyone who claims to know more than d1ck about this division is lying (or trying to be a troll on a message board).

“Likely Wins” are mirages. Or Unicorns. Or ZouDave’s sister. They sure look like they are attainable, but until they actually materialize, you are stuck holding your junk. They could just as easily be ZouDave in drag, a pony with a plunger superglued to his head, or a loss in Manhattan.

So if 11/14 is Senior day at K-State, will Snyder be checking out in the 3rd quarter to hit the Early Bird Special?

LONG LIVE THE UNHOLY ALLIANCE!!!!!

The sleeper has awoken. . .awakened. . .he woke up.

by SleepyFloyd7 on Oct 29, 2009 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs

Rec'd

I think the biggest advantage we have on Senior Day will be that all the Missouri players and coaches will fall asleep while we announce our 35 seniors.

We'll carry the banner high!
Bring On The Cats

by TB on Oct 30, 2009 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually there's potential upside in Norman

Getting drubbed won’t prove much at all (everyone gets drubbed by these guys), but holding your own is actually an impressive sign.

So Bill’s comment stands… we’ll be impressed if you stay close against OU. We just won’t necessarily read much into it either way if you don’t.

and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)

by Wan Ihite on Oct 30, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

While I don't doubt that K-State is probably a better team

now than they were in August, I wonder how much of their change in results is due to that improvement or the circumstances of their opponents. They’ve gotten out to a 3-1 start by playing 3 of the 4 worst teams in the Big 12, and getting humiliated by the one road game and one quality opponent they’ve faced in the conference slate. Considering the 4 opponents they have remaining are all more talented than any of K-States wins, it’s perfectly logical to assume K-State will have a hard time getting 2 more wins. And K-State at 4-4 probably doesn’t take the North.

by Transmogrified Tiger on Oct 29, 2009 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs