BTBS Week 6 Picks!
by Bill C. on Oct 6, 2009 6:00 PM CDT
in National Football 2009
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PrintI wanted to make sure tigers and chiefs fan got what was needed before the big trip to Vegas, so you get this post on a Tuesday for once! Don't get used to it!
Last Week: Last week was...well, it was a strangely consistent week. If reliability made you extra money in Vegas, then back-to-back weeks of 31-18-1 and 31-19 would make you a millionaire, I guess. Anyway, quite a few near-misses on last week's dance card made for another 60% week. We'll see if what is basically the first week of full-on conference play changes things.
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 31-19 (62.0%) | 141-91-2 (60.7%) |
| Big 12 | 6-0 (100.0%) |
25-14-1 (63.8%) |
| "LOCKS" | 3-1 (75.0%) |
15-9-1 (62.0%) |
Some ship-righting there with the Big 12 games...now every category--All, Big 12, and LOCKS--are between 57% and 60%. We'll just ignore that "Locks" are, in theory, supposed to be more successful than the others.
As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thursday, 10/8 | 8:00pm | Nebraska at Missouri | Missouri by 0.4 | Missouri +3! | |
| Saturday, 10/10 | 11:30am | Oklahoma State at Texas A&M | OSU by 3.1 | OSU -5 |
ATM (TIE) |
| 11:30am | Iowa State at Kansas | KU by 18.2 | KU -20 | ISU (WIN) |
|
| 2:30pm | Baylor at Oklahoma | OU by 32.1 | OU -24.5 | OU (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | Kansas State at Texas Tech | Tech by 16.4 | Tech -16.5! | ||
| 6:15pm | Colorado at Texas | Texas by 28.2 | Texas -32 | CU (WIN) |
- The underdog is picked against the spread in four of five games there, which always makes me a bit uncomfortable, but every time I express said discomfort, it works out fine, so...I'm uncomfortable!
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thursday, 10/8 | 8:00pm | Nebraska at Missouri | Missouri by 0.4 | Missouri +3 | |
| Friday, 10/9 | 8:00pm | Louisiana Tech at Nevada | Nevada by 17.6 | Nevada -10.5 | Nevada (WIN) |
| Saturday, 10/10 | 11:00am | Auburn at Arkansas | Arkansas by 4.9 | Arky +2.5 | Arky (WIN) |
| Boston College at Virginia Tech | VT by 12.2 | VT -13.5 | |||
| Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan | CMU by 13.2 | CMU -23 | |||
| Eastern Illinois at Penn State | Penn State by 63.3 | N/A | |||
| Miami-OH at Northwestern | NW'ern by 9.6 | NW'ern -19.5 | Miami (WIN) |
||
| Michigan State at Illinois | MSU by 1.5 | MSU -4.5 | |||
| Purdue at Minnesota | Minnesota by 2.5 | Minnesota -3.5 | |||
| Vanderbilt at Army | Vandy by 2.9 | Vandy -10.5 | Army (WIN) |
||
| West Virginia at Syracuse | WVU by 7.2 | WVU -10 | |||
| 11:21am | Georgia at Tennessee | Vols by 8.6 | Vols -1.5 | Vols (WIN) |
|
| 11:30am | Houston at Mississippi State | Houston by 8.0 | Houston -1.5 | Houston (WIN) |
|
| Iowa State at Kansas | Kansas by 18.2 | Kansas -20 | ISU (WIN) |
||
| Kentucky at South Carolina | S. Caro. by 3.1 | S. Caro. -10.5 | UK (WIN) |
||
| Oklahoma State at Texas A&M | OSU by 3.1 | OSU -5 |
ATM (TIE) |
||
| 12:00pm | Ball State at Temple | Temple by 7.6 | Temple -13.5 | BSU (WIN) |
|
| 1:00pm | New Mexico at Wyoming | Wyoming by 7.8 | Wyoming -10.5 | ||
| 2:30pm | Alabama at Ole Miss | 'Bama by 13.9 | 'Bama -6.5 | 'Bama (WIN) |
|
| Baylor at Oklahoma | OU by 32.1 | OU -24.5 | OU (WIN) |
||
| Bowling Green at Kent State | BGSU by 3.3 | BGSU -4 | KSU (WIN) |
||
| Connecticut at Pittsburgh | Pitt by 0.3 | Pitt -8 | UConn (WIN) |
||
| Georgia Southern at North Carolina | UNC by 33.7 | N/A | |||
| Gardner-Webb at Buffalo | Buffalo by 29.4 | N/A | |||
| Texas Southern at Rutgers | Rutgers by 46.0 | N/A | |||
| Indiana at Virginia | UVa by 15.9 | UVa -6.5 | UVa (WIN) |
||
| Marshall at Tulane | Tulane by 1.2 | Tulane +1.2 | |||
| Navy at Rice | Navy by 5.3 | Navy -11.5 | |||
| Oregon at UCLA | Oregon by 3.3 | Oregon -6.5 | |||
| Wisconsin at Ohio State | tOSU by 13.7 | tOSU -16 | |||
| 3:00pm | Duke at N.C. State | NC State by 22.7 | NC State -14.5 | ||
| 4:00pm | Arizona State at Washington State | Wazzu by 2.4 | Wazzu +20.5 | WAZZU (WIN) |
|
| 5:00pm | Ohio at Akron | Akron by 0.3 | Akron +4 | ||
| Utah at Colorado State | Utah by 5.2 | Utah -7.5 | CSU (WIN) |
||
| 5:30pm | Maryland at Wake Forest | Wake by 8.4 | Wake -11 | Maryland (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | Florida A&M at Miami-FL | Miami by 65.2 | N/A | ||
| Florida International at W. Kentucky | FIU by 0.2 | FIU -3.5 | |||
| Kansas State at Texas Tech | Tech by 16.4 | Tech -16.5 | |||
| North Texas at UL-Lafayette | ULL by 5.1 | ULL -5.5 | UNT (WIN) |
||
| Stanford at Oregon State | Ore. St. by 15.3 | Ore. St. +2 | Ore. St. (WIN) |
||
| Western Michigan at Toledo | Toledo by 15.7 | Toledo -8.5 | |||
| 6:15pm | Colorado at Texas | Texas by 28.2 | Texas -32 | CU (WIN) |
|
| 6:30pm | Southern Miss at Louisville | Louisville by 0.3 | USM -2.5 |
Louisville (WIN) |
|
| TCU at Air Force | TCU by 16.0 | TCU -10 | |||
| 7:00pm | East Carolina at SMU | ECU by 4.3 | ECU -6.5 | SMU (WIN) |
|
| Florida at LSU | Florida by 17.7 | Florida -7 | Florida (WIN) |
||
| Georgia Tech at Florida State | FSU by 5.6 | FSU -2.5 | |||
| Idaho at San Jose State | SJSU by 7.7 | SJSU -4 | |||
| Utah State at New Mexico State | USU by 9.9 | USU -12 | NMSU (WIN) |
||
| UTEP at Memphis | Memphis by 0.7 | Memphis +2.5 | Memphis (WIN) |
||
| 7:05pm | Michigan at Iowa | Iowa by 12.7 | Iowa -8 | ||
| 9:00pm | Arizona at Washington | UW by 6.1 | UW +3 | UW (WIN) |
|
| BYU at UNLV | BYU by 20.5 | BYU -16.5 | BYU (WIN) |
||
| 10:05pm | Fresno State at Hawaii | Fresno by 12.5 | Fresno -9.5 | Fresno (WIN) |
|
| Tuesday, 10/13 | 7:00pm | Arkansas State at UL-Monroe | ULM by 8.0 | ? | ? |
- Some mighty big blowouts predicted in the Penn State and Miami games, huh?
- Army picked to cover against Vanderbilt...I don't really like that pick, but that makes sense considering I haven't gotten a Vandy game right yet this year.
- The numbers REALLY seem to think Stanford is a house of cards right now...not giving them any love. Meanwhile, Arizona State is now projected to go 0-9 in the Pac-10. Needless to say, the trip to Pullman should pretty well establish who's the team to beat in the "last in the Pac-10" race.
- Here's a good to mention again that anybody who has played Florida has seen their strength-of-schedule numbers disproportionally skew upward because of how far Florida is ranked ahead of everybody else. That is likely skewing Tennessee's and Kentucky's numbers too positively. (That's a big "Don't bet on the UGa-UT or UK-SC games!!!" hint, t&c fan.)
- What kind of effect do you think the "Bowden needs to retire!" talk will have on FSU this weekend? Clearly the cold, emotionless projections have nothing to say about that, but you do figure that's worth at least a touchdown whether they band together or fall apart.
- As soon as I find spreads for the OSU-ATM, USM-Louisville, and ASU-ULM games, I will add them to the list.
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My money is going to Vegas
My friend is going out there & will place bets for me.
We are headed to California, kid-free.
Thank you so much.
I will let you know the parlay on Saturday.
"You get a lot of national exposure like that" Weatherspoon said. "Lot of people out there not really talking about the Tigers. . . . .You've got to go out there and get respect if you want it."
by tigers and chiefs fan on Oct 6, 2009 7:51 PM CDT reply actions
Blll,
I thoroughly enjoy this column. You’re one of few to play the entire card. Not a good college week for me week. Season to date (College):
Week 1 20 24 -6.3
Week 2 39 22 16.32
Week 3 31 23 5.7
Week 4 38 29 6.02
Week 5 26 31 -4.42
Week 6 154 129 +17.32
It’s 54%, but that’s including some occasional moneyline dogs. I actually prefer to track R.O.I. instead of percentage, but percentage is fine if all bets are for the same amount at identical odds. My R.O.I. On the season is 5.57%, with which I am very pleased.
Here’s what I grabbed Sunday night. Most of these are PFM (play for move), meaning I could likely take the other side and play for a middle or a scalp.
Nebraska -1.5 PFM
Nevada -7
West Virginia -9.5
Indiana +7
UConn +10
Alabama -6
Army +12
Wyoming -10
Houston -3
Oregon State +1.5
Tulane +3
Georgia Tech +3
Wisconsin +14.5
Kentucky +11.5
SMU +7
LSU +10
San Jose State -6.5
UNLV +14
Fresno State -9.5
NFL last weekend though, was insane:
Week 1 3 3 0
Week 2 3 4 -1.2
Week 3 12 4 7.6
Week 4 24 2 21.9
Total 42 13 +28.3
I have never, ever gone 24-2 before in a weekend against -110 type bets. 76% will not continue. But I am really jacked about having a 50.2% ROI to date in the NFL.
6pt even money teasers allow one to bypass the premium of buying on or off 3 and 7.
In any case, your stuff is fascinating. Keep it up. I’ll pop back in to let you know which initial wagers I will ride and which I will hedge.
FSUncensored
Could you elaborate on the term “play for move”? I have never heard that term before.
________________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
What kind of effect do you think the “Bowden needs to retire!” talk will have on FSU this weekend? Clearly the cold, emotionless projections have nothing to say about that, but you do figure that’s worth at least a touchdown whether they band together or fall apart.
Probably little. We already had coaches punching each other in practice.
Just 14-12-1 heading into the evening session...
…lots of underdogs barely not covering.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
ha, spoke too soon...
…somehow Washington came back and won, meaning I got that one and went 28-20-1, 58.2%.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
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