Week 11 BTBS Picks!

Last Week: 30-20-2.  Hooray!  Now that the outdated preseason projections were removed from the equation, we got back on the winning track.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 30-20-2 (59.6%) 275-215-8 (56.0%)
Big 12 4-2 (66.7%) 38-30-2 (55.7%)
"LOCKS" 0-2-1 (16.7%) 26-24-2 (51.9%)


I've come up with a theory on why the "LOCKS" are doing so terribly.  At this point in the season, the projections and the lines are agreeing with each other quite a bit (see my response to the picks at the bottom of this post).  The Vegas line is going to take into account things like injuries and suspensions, while this year my numbers do not (one of about 14,000 offseason projects is to figure out the best way to assign at least an approximate point value to different injuries).  Therefore, at this point in the season, the large disagreements are going to most likely be caused by some change in the space-time continuum that I did not account for.

At least that's what I'm saying right now.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Sat., 11/14 11:00am Texas at Baylor Texas by 17.1 Texas -24 Baylor
11:30am Missouri at Kansas State Missouri by 7.2 Missouri +1 Missouri (WIN)
1:00pm Colorado at Iowa State ISU by 8.5 ISU -5.5 ISU (WIN)
2:30pm Nebraska at Kansas NU by 6.0 NU -3.5 NU (WIN)
6:00pm Texas A&M at Oklahoma OU by 27.6 OU -20 OU (WIN)
7:00pm Texas Tech at Oklahoma State OSU by 14.7 OSU -4 OSU (WIN)

 

  • I believe the MU-KSU projection last week was Mizzou by about 9 or so, so Mizzou's loss to Baylor and KSU's win over KU closed the gap by a couple of points.  As we'll discuss in the BTBS preview tomorrow, KSU is clearly trending upward while...well, Mizzou is trending down, but not as much as one would think.  Still, if I were to take momentum into account (I don't), the projection would likely be closer.  That said, Mizzou is still statistically the better team, so the projection doesn't surprise me all that much.
  • Nothing else here really jumps out as altogether surprising.  You'd figure UT would be projected to win by more than 17, really, and OSU's projection is a bit high, but nothing crazy.

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Wed., 11/11 7:00pm Toledo at Central Michigan CMU by 16.2 CMU -17 Toledo
Thurs., 11/12 5:00pm Ball State at Northern Illinois NIU by 16.0 NIU -17 BSU (WIN)
Bowling Green at Miami-OH M-OH by 0.3 M-OH +3.5 M-OH
6:30pm South Florida at Rutgers USF by 8.0 USF -1 USF
Fri., 11/13 7:00pm West Virginia at Cincinnati Cincy by 15.1 Cincy -9 Cincy
7:30pm Temple at Akron Akron by 1.6 Akron +4 Akron
Sat., 11/14 11:00am Clemson at N.C. State Clemson by 19.2 Clemson -8 Clemson (WIN)
South Dakota St. at Minnesota Minny by 27.5 N/A
VMI at Army Army by 19.9 N/A
Florida State at Wake Forest Wake by 5.5 Wake -5 Wake
Georgia Tech at Duke GT by 16.7 GT -13 GT (WIN)
Houston at Central Florida Houston by 1.0 Houston -5 UCF (WIN)
Indiana at Penn State PSU by 35.9 PSU -25.5 PSU
Michigan at Wisconsin Wiscy by 20.5 Wiscy -8.5 Wiscy (WIN)
Michigan State at Purdue Purdue by 8.7 Purdue +2.5 Purdue
Northwestern at Illinois Illinois by 9.8 Illinois -4.5 Illinois
Syracuse at Louisville Louisville by 8.4 Louisville -7.5 Louisville
Tennessee at Ole Miss Vols by 10.0 Vols +4.5 VOLS
Texas at Baylor Texas by 17.1 Texas -24 Baylor
11:21am Kentucky at Vanderbilt UK by 4.7 UK -3 UK (WIN)
11:30am Missouri at Kansas State Mizzou by 7.2 Mizzou +1 Mizzou (WIN)
12:00pm Virginia Tech at Maryland VT by 23.6 VT -17.5 VT (WIN)
Western Mich. at Eastern Mich. WMU by 2.2 WMU -12.5 EMU
1:00pm BYU at New Mexico BYU by 17.0 BYU -26.5 UNM (WIN)
Colorado at Iowa State ISU by 8.5 ISU -5.5 ISU (WIN)
UAB at Memphis Memphis by 1.9 Memphis +1 Memphis
2:00pm San Jose State at Utah State USU by 12.4 USU -12.5 SJSU
UTEP at SMU SMU by 1.0 SMU -8 UTEP (WIN)
2:30pm Boston College at Virginia UVa by 5.6 (?) UVa +4.5 UVa (WIN)
Delaware at Navy Navy by 21.1 N/A
Florida at South Carolina Florida by 16.3 Florida -15.5 Florida
Idaho at Boise State Boise by 34.9 Boise -31 Boise (WIN)
Iowa at Ohio State tOSU by 11.7 tOSU -16.5 Iowa (WIN)
Miami-FL at North Carolina Miami by 9.5 Miami -3 Miami
Nebraska at Kansas NU by 6.0 NU -3.5 NU (WIN)
Stanford at USC USC by 10.7 USC -11 Stanford (WIN)
Tulane at Rice Rice by 1.7 Rice -2.5 Tulane
Washington at Oregon State OSU by 12.8 OSU -12 OSU (WIN)
3:00pm Arkansas State at Florida Atlantic FAU by 13.1 FAU +3.5 FAU (WIN)
Fresno State at Nevada Nevada by 8.5 Nevada -7 Nevada (WIN)
W'ern Kentucky at UL-Monroe ULM by 12.7 ULM -21.5 WKU (WIN)
3:15pm UL-Lafayette at Middle Tennessee MTSU by 19.7 MTSU -13 MTSU (WIN)
3:30pm Southern Miss at Marshall Marshall by 7.4 Marshall +3 Marshall
4:00pm UCLA at Washington State UCLA by 24.0 UCLA -17 UCLA (WIN)
5:00pm UNLV at Air Force AFA by 18.2 AFA -17 AFA (WIN)
6:00pm Alabama at Mississippi State 'Bama by 21.5 'Bama -12.5 'Bama (WIN)
Auburn at Georgia Auburn by 1.4 Auburn +4 Auburn
Louisiana Tech at LSU LSU by 25.6 LSU -24.5 LSU
North Texas at Florida International FIU by 0.7 FIU -2 UNT
Texas A&M at Oklahoma OU by 27.6 OU -20 OU (WIN)
6:30pm Troy at Arkansas Arkansas by 15.1 Arkansas -13.5 Arkansas (WIN)
Utah at TCU TCU by 27.0 (!) TCU -19.5 TCU (WIN)
7:00pm Notre Dame at Pittsburgh Pitt by 2.4 Pitt -7 ND (WIN)
Texas Tech at Oklahoma State OSU by 14.7 OSU -4 OSU (WIN)
9:00pm Wyoming at San Diego State SDSU by 7.3 SDSU -7.5 Wyoming (WIN)
9:05pm New Mexico State at Hawaii Hawaii by 26.5 Hawaii -20 Hawaii
9:20pm Arizona at California Arizona by 1.1 Arizona +1 Arizona
Arizona State at Oregon Oregon by 29.2 Oregon -17 Oregon
Sun., 11/15 7:15pm East Carolina at Tulsa Tulsa by 17.0 Tulsa -5 Tulsa
  • Man oh MAN are the projections and lines agreeing with each other a lot.  Only two "LOCKS" (which means the projections and spread disagree by 13 or more), and 17 games where projection and spread disagree by 2 points or less?  That makes me feel good about the straight-up picks and quite shaky about the ATS picks.  One field goal either way could decide which way the pick goes.
  • Needless to say, this will be an interesting test of my numbers' love of all things Tennessee.  And...really?  Virginia getting love again?  I thought we'd moved past that...
  • Sitting at 30-23 after a ROUGH (5-12) start...
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