Know Your Rival: NW Missouri State

by Bill C. on Nov 13, 2009 2:00 PM CST in Mizzou Basketball 09-10 Comment 5 comments

Last Year
NW Missouri State: 12-15

	NW Mo. St.	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.73	1.71
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.03	1.02
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.23	1.28
2-PT FG%	48.7%	51.8%
3-PT FG%	32.8%	34.7%
FT%	72.2%	72.1%
True Shooting %	53.2%	55.8%

	NW Mo. St.	Opp
Assists/Gm	13.6	14.8
Steals/Gm	8.6	7.5
Turnovers/Gm	13.6	17.3
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.62	1.29

	NW Mo. St.	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	324	300
Offensive Rebounds	284	289
Difference	-40	-11

Once again, as a refresher...
Mizzou: 31-7

	MU	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.04	1.69
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.14	0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.20
2-PT FG%	52.7%	46.8%
3-PT FG%	35.3%	30.3%
FT%	67.2%	67.4%
True Shooting %	56.1%	50.9%

	MU	Opp
Assists/Gm	18.4	11.9
Steals/Gm	10.2	6.2
Turnovers/Gm	11.8	18.3
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.42	0.99

	MU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	491	490
Offensive Rebounds	486	484
Difference	-5	-6

Need a non-numbers primer? Check out this official release:

Northwest Missouri State and new head men's basketball coach Ben McCollum will open the 2009-10 season with an exhibition game against Big 12 Tournament Champion Missouri at 7 p.m. Nov. 13, inside Mizzou Arena in Columbia.

McCollum was announced as head coach in late March. He replaced Steve Tappmeyer, who retired following 21 years of service. The Bearcats were the 2008 MIAA Tournament Champions and won the regular season crown in 2007. The program has competed in the NCAA tournament eight times in the last 10 seasons with Elite Eight appearances in 2002 and 2004.
...
McCollum has introduced seven new players and returns three starters in junior forward Elijah Allen (13.1 ppg) and senior guards Mike Larsen (7.8 ppg) and Edriss Floyd (7.1 ppg).

Northwest will begin its regular season slate with six consecutive home games starting with Manhattan Christian Nov. 16. Benedictine (Nov. 19), Baker (Nov. 24), Graceland (Nov.28), Emporia State (Dec. 2) and Washburn (Dec. 5) are included in the homestand.

Yeah, LOTS of new players.

Player	AdjGS/Gm*	GmSc/Min	2008-09 Line
Elijah Allen (6'4, 195, Jr.)	12.6	0.48	26.4 MPG, 13.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.8 TOPG
Mike Larsen (6'2, 170, Sr.)	9.0	0.31	28.9 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 3.7 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.2 TOPG
Edriss Floyd (6'1, 175, Sr.)	5.8	0.21	27.6 MPG, 7.1 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.7 TOPG
Kyle Haake (6'2, 185, So.)	1.5	0.10	15.0 MPG, 2.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Jake Petersen (6'0, 150!, So.)	1.3	0.11	11.7 MPG, 2.1 PPG
Jake Reinders (6'9, 190, So.)	2.2	0.25	8.8 MPG, 1.8 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Nick Mikle (6'4, 185, So.)	-1.2	-0.26	4.8 MPG, 0.3 PPG
Girod Adams (5'10, 180, Sr.)			Newbie
DeShaun Cooper (5'8, 160, Fr.)			Newbie
Jonathan Nutt (5'9, 160, Fr.)			Newbie
Bryston Williams (5'10, 170, Fr.)			Newbie
Arunus Simanavicius (6'7, 210, Jr.)			Newbie
Maciej Ustarbowski (6'7, 200, Jr.)			Newbie
Clint Hamilton (6'6, 200, Jr.)			Newbie

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

NMSU's (relative) strengths: Well, they've certainly got depth at the guard position, no? And Elijah Allen seems like a pretty well-rounded player. One problem: it almost looks like Allen will have to play power forward or something, because...
NMSU's weaknesses: ...holy CRAP, this is the smallest team Missouri will ever face in any sort of basketball competition. One guy (ONE) over 200 pounds...and he's 210. One guy over 6'7...and he's 190 pounds.

Keys to the Game

Show Up. Sorry, but it's still true. Northwest has traditionally had a pretty solid team for their level, but they were a bit down last year, they're breaking in a new coach...and they're still not at the D1 level. Mizzou's bigs will be in the rare position of being MUCH bigger than their opponent, and even more important than that, J.T. Tiller, Zaire Taylor, and the Mizzou backcourt will be able to physically dominate their backcourt opposition. This might not end up 96-33, but it should still be a bit of a laugher.
Don't foul. First of all, it's always a good recommendation not to foul too much in an exhibition--no need to make the game last forever. That said, Mizzou is so much bigger than Northwest, a Bearcat will probably go flying anytime there's a collision. Not saying foul trouble will cost Mizzou the game, but it could be annoying. We'll see.
Tyler Stone. I really liked what I saw from him in limited action last week, and quite frankly I just want to see what he can do again. I don't hold a ton of hope in him getting lots of playing time this year, but from a polish perspective, it does seem that he's ahead of both Steve Moore and John Underwood, and if he wants to work his way into the rotation, now's the time.