Week 13 BTBS Picks!

WOW did Vegas violate me six ways to Sunday last week...a multitude of leads flipped at the last minute, and after fighting back from a 2-5 start to move to 13-9 mid-day, I finished on an amazing 6-24 run to end the day.  SIX AND FREAKING TWENTY-FOUR.  A freaking coin flip would have done better.  As The Beef said when I was crying to him about it, Vegas is a fickle mistress.  Come back to me, Vegas, come back to me.  Let's finish strong.

Last Week: horrid start, decent middle, so-bad-I-checked-to-see-if-I-was-bleeding finish.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 19-33 (36.5%)
325-274-8 (54.2%)
Big 12 2-4 (33.3%) 45-35-2 (56.1%)
"LOCKS" 2-4 (33.3%) 29-29-2 (50.0%)


As you'll see after the jump, a whopping 21 games are projected within three points of the spread, meaning there really aren't many smart bets at all at this point.  Vegas really does have a good read on most teams right now, and I'm believing more and more that Bill Simmons was basically right -- that money is won at the beginning of the season before Vegas has everything figured out.  After that, good luck.  Here's my proof:

My Projections Versus the Spread

September: 141-91-2 (60.7%)
October: 104-104-4 (50.0%)
November Thus Far: 80-79-4 (50.3%)

I had something nice early on and have been treading water ever since.  This is, again, my first stab at this, so I do think something more along the lines of 65%-55%-55% (Sept-Oct-Nov) might be attainable for next year, but ... Vegas is Vegas for a reason.  To find a successful system, I think you need to a) make really good projections, AND b) pick your spots.  I'm doubting I can do better than 60% ATS when picking all games.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs., 11/26 7:00pm Texas at Texas A&M UT by 26.6 UT -21.5 UT
Fri., 11/27 2:30pm Nebraska at Colorado NU by 12.8 NU -10 NU
Sat., 11/28 11:30am Oklahoma State at Oklahoma OU by 24.3 OU -9.5 OU
2:30pm Missouri vs Kansas Mizzou by 4.7 Mizzou -3 Mizzou
5:00pm Texas Tech vs Baylor Tech by 14.2 Tech -20.5 Baylor

 

  • Not a lot of upset potential here.  The numbers have had a crush on OU all year, as evidenced by the fact that they're still supposed to win big (thank you, Owen Field home field adjustment) despite the rather pitiful showing against Tech last week.  Meanwhile, Texas is supposed to handle ATM easily, NU is supposed to handle CU reasonably easy (though one should never underestimate the "Playing to save the coach" factor...just ask Missouri 2006 versus Iowa State...or potentially Missouri 2009 versus Kansas...wait, did I just say that out loud?).  Baylor is expected to make it more of a game than the spread would suggest, but we'll see.

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs., 11/26 7:00pm Texas at Texas A&M UT by 26.6 UT -21.5 UT
Fri., 11/27 10:00am! Rutgers at Louisville Louisville by 11.4 Louisville +3 LOUISVILLE
Temple at Ohio Ohio by 2.9 Ohio +3 Ohio (WIN)
11:00am Illinois at Cincinnati Cincy by 29.6 Cincy -20.5 Cincy
12:00pm Northern Illinois at Central Michigan CMU by 10.8 CMU -13 NIU
1:00pm Buffalo at Kent State Buffalo by 1.3 Buffalo -3 Kent St. (TIE)
Eastern Michigan at Akron Akron by 12.9 Akron -16.5 EMU (WIN)
Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU by 13.0 BGSU -7.5 BGSU (WIN)
Wyoming at Colorado State CSU by 13.9 CSU -3 CSU
1:30pm Alabama at Auburn 'Bama by 19.4 'Bama -10 'Bama
2:30pm Memphis at Tulsa Tulsa by 17.1 Tulsa -16.5 Tulsa
Nebraska at Colorado NU by 12.8 NU -10 NU
6:00pm Pittsburgh at West Virginia WVU by 3.3 PK WVU (WIN)
9:00pm Nevada at Boise State Boise by 24.0 Boise -13.5 Boise
Sat., 11/28 11:00am Clemson at South Carolina SC by 4.5 SC +3 SC
North Carolina at N.C. State UNC by 10.0 UNC -5.5 UNC
Syracuse at UConn UConn by 15.4 UConn -13.5 UConn
Wake Forest at Duke Wake by 7.7 Wake -4.5 Wake
11:21am Ole Miss at Mississippi State Ole Miss by 0.3 Ole Miss -8 Miss. St.
11:30am Oklahoma State at Oklahoma OU by 24.3 OU -9.5 OU
12:00pm New Mexico at TCU TCU by 46.5 TCU -45 TCU
12:30pm Central Florida at UAB UAB by 0.2 UAB +3 UAB
Southern Miss at East Carolina ECU by 10.3 ECU -5.5 ECU
2:00pm Marshall at UTEP UTEP by 9.6 UTEP -1.5 UTEP
North Texas at Arkansas State ASU by 9.1 ASU -7.5 ASU
Tulane at SMU SMU by 16.5 SMU -17.5 Tulane
2:30pm Arizona at Arizona State Arizona by 1.3 Arizona -2.5 ASU
Boston College at Maryland BC by 7.3 BC -6.5 BC
Florida State at Florida UF by 28.3 UF -24 UF
Miami-FL at South Florida Miami by 4.6 Miami -5.5 USF
Missouri vs Kansas Mizzou by 4.7 Mizzou -3 Mizzou
Virginia Tech at Virginia VT by 18.3 VT -16 VT
3:00pm Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic FAU by 16.1 FAU -14 FAU
3:30pm Middle Tennessee at UL-Monroe ULM by 2.0 ULM +3.5 ULM
4:00pm Utah at BYU BYU by 11.4 BYU -7.5 BYU
Utah State at Idaho Idaho by 13.3 Idaho -2 Idaho
5:00pm Texas Tech vs Baylor Tech by 14.2 Tech -20.5 Baylor
5:30pm Washington State at Washington UW by 22.5 UW -24.5 Wazzu
6:00pm Arkansas at LSU Arkansas by 1.3 Arkansas +3.5 Arkansas
Tennessee at Kentucky Vols by 8.2 Vols -3 Vols
Troy at UL-Lafayette Troy by 7.9 Troy -9.5 ULL
7:00pm Georgia at Georgia Tech GT by 5.2 GT -7 UGa
New Mexico St. at San Jose St. SJSU by 19.9 SJSU -10.5 SJSU
Notre Dame at Stanford Stanford by 3.3 Stanford -10.5 ND
Rice at Houston Houston by 29.3 Houston -30 Rice
8:00pm San Diego State at UNLV UNLV by 8.1 UNLV -6 UNLV
9:00pm UCLA at USC USC by 10.9 USC -13 UCLA
9:30pm Navy at Hawaii Hawaii by 4.0 Hawaii +9.5 Hawaii
  • 4-9-1 on Thursday/Friday.  Missed Boise, Nebraska, Bama, and NIU by three points or less.  Bitches, man.
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