Week 13 BTBS Picks!
by Bill C. on Nov 25, 2009 9:00 AM CST
in National Football 2009
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PrintWOW did Vegas violate me six ways to Sunday last week...a multitude of leads flipped at the last minute, and after fighting back from a 2-5 start to move to 13-9 mid-day, I finished on an amazing 6-24 run to end the day. SIX AND FREAKING TWENTY-FOUR. A freaking coin flip would have done better. As The Beef said when I was crying to him about it, Vegas is a fickle mistress. Come back to me, Vegas, come back to me. Let's finish strong.
Last Week: horrid start, decent middle, so-bad-I-checked-to-see-if-I-was-bleeding finish.
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 19-33 (36.5%) |
325-274-8 (54.2%) |
| Big 12 | 2-4 (33.3%) | 45-35-2 (56.1%) |
| "LOCKS" | 2-4 (33.3%) | 29-29-2 (50.0%) |
As you'll see after the jump, a whopping 21 games are projected within three points of the spread, meaning there really aren't many smart bets at all at this point. Vegas really does have a good read on most teams right now, and I'm believing more and more that Bill Simmons was basically right -- that money is won at the beginning of the season before Vegas has everything figured out. After that, good luck. Here's my proof:
My Projections Versus the Spread
September: 141-91-2 (60.7%)
October: 104-104-4 (50.0%)
November Thus Far: 80-79-4 (50.3%)
I had something nice early on and have been treading water ever since. This is, again, my first stab at this, so I do think something more along the lines of 65%-55%-55% (Sept-Oct-Nov) might be attainable for next year, but ... Vegas is Vegas for a reason. To find a successful system, I think you need to a) make really good projections, AND b) pick your spots. I'm doubting I can do better than 60% ATS when picking all games.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 11/26 | 7:00pm | Texas at Texas A&M | UT by 26.6 | UT -21.5 | |
| Fri., 11/27 | 2:30pm | Nebraska at Colorado | NU by 12.8 | NU -10 | |
| Sat., 11/28 | 11:30am | Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | OU by 24.3 | OU -9.5 | OU |
| 2:30pm | Missouri vs Kansas | Mizzou by 4.7 | Mizzou -3 | Mizzou | |
| 5:00pm | Texas Tech vs Baylor | Tech by 14.2 | Tech -20.5 | Baylor |
- Not a lot of upset potential here. The numbers have had a crush on OU all year, as evidenced by the fact that they're still supposed to win big (thank you, Owen Field home field adjustment) despite the rather pitiful showing against Tech last week. Meanwhile, Texas is supposed to handle ATM easily, NU is supposed to handle CU reasonably easy (though one should never underestimate the "Playing to save the coach" factor...just ask Missouri 2006 versus Iowa State...or potentially Missouri 2009 versus Kansas...wait, did I just say that out loud?). Baylor is expected to make it more of a game than the spread would suggest, but we'll see.
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 11/26 | 7:00pm | Texas at Texas A&M | UT by 26.6 | UT -21.5 | |
| Fri., 11/27 | 10:00am! | Rutgers at Louisville | Louisville by 11.4 | Louisville +3 | |
| Temple at Ohio | Ohio by 2.9 | Ohio +3 | Ohio (WIN) |
||
| 11:00am | Illinois at Cincinnati | Cincy by 29.6 | Cincy -20.5 | ||
| 12:00pm | Northern Illinois at Central Michigan | CMU by 10.8 | CMU -13 | ||
| 1:00pm | Buffalo at Kent State | Buffalo by 1.3 | Buffalo -3 | Kent St. (TIE) |
|
| Eastern Michigan at Akron | Akron by 12.9 | Akron -16.5 | EMU (WIN) |
||
| Toledo at Bowling Green | BGSU by 13.0 | BGSU -7.5 | BGSU (WIN) |
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| Wyoming at Colorado State | CSU by 13.9 | CSU -3 | |||
| 1:30pm | Alabama at Auburn | 'Bama by 19.4 | 'Bama -10 | ||
| 2:30pm | Memphis at Tulsa | Tulsa by 17.1 | Tulsa -16.5 | ||
| Nebraska at Colorado | NU by 12.8 | NU -10 | |||
| 6:00pm | Pittsburgh at West Virginia | WVU by 3.3 | PK | WVU (WIN) |
|
| 9:00pm | Nevada at Boise State | Boise by 24.0 | Boise -13.5 | ||
| Sat., 11/28 | 11:00am | Clemson at South Carolina | SC by 4.5 | SC +3 | SC |
| North Carolina at N.C. State | UNC by 10.0 | UNC -5.5 | UNC | ||
| Syracuse at UConn | UConn by 15.4 | UConn -13.5 | UConn | ||
| Wake Forest at Duke | Wake by 7.7 | Wake -4.5 | Wake | ||
| 11:21am | Ole Miss at Mississippi State | Ole Miss by 0.3 | Ole Miss -8 | Miss. St. | |
| 11:30am | Oklahoma State at Oklahoma | OU by 24.3 | OU -9.5 | OU | |
| 12:00pm | New Mexico at TCU | TCU by 46.5 | TCU -45 | TCU | |
| 12:30pm | Central Florida at UAB | UAB by 0.2 | UAB +3 | UAB | |
| Southern Miss at East Carolina | ECU by 10.3 | ECU -5.5 | ECU | ||
| 2:00pm | Marshall at UTEP | UTEP by 9.6 | UTEP -1.5 | UTEP | |
| North Texas at Arkansas State | ASU by 9.1 | ASU -7.5 | ASU | ||
| Tulane at SMU | SMU by 16.5 | SMU -17.5 | Tulane | ||
| 2:30pm | Arizona at Arizona State | Arizona by 1.3 | Arizona -2.5 | ASU | |
| Boston College at Maryland | BC by 7.3 | BC -6.5 | BC | ||
| Florida State at Florida | UF by 28.3 | UF -24 | UF | ||
| Miami-FL at South Florida | Miami by 4.6 | Miami -5.5 | USF | ||
| Missouri vs Kansas | Mizzou by 4.7 | Mizzou -3 | Mizzou | ||
| Virginia Tech at Virginia | VT by 18.3 | VT -16 | VT | ||
| 3:00pm | Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic | FAU by 16.1 | FAU -14 | FAU | |
| 3:30pm | Middle Tennessee at UL-Monroe | ULM by 2.0 | ULM +3.5 | ULM | |
| 4:00pm | Utah at BYU | BYU by 11.4 | BYU -7.5 | BYU | |
| Utah State at Idaho | Idaho by 13.3 | Idaho -2 | Idaho | ||
| 5:00pm | Texas Tech vs Baylor | Tech by 14.2 | Tech -20.5 | Baylor | |
| 5:30pm | Washington State at Washington | UW by 22.5 | UW -24.5 | Wazzu | |
| 6:00pm | Arkansas at LSU | Arkansas by 1.3 | Arkansas +3.5 | Arkansas | |
| Tennessee at Kentucky | Vols by 8.2 | Vols -3 | Vols | ||
| Troy at UL-Lafayette | Troy by 7.9 | Troy -9.5 | ULL | ||
| 7:00pm | Georgia at Georgia Tech | GT by 5.2 | GT -7 | UGa | |
| New Mexico St. at San Jose St. | SJSU by 19.9 | SJSU -10.5 | SJSU | ||
| Notre Dame at Stanford | Stanford by 3.3 | Stanford -10.5 | ND | ||
| Rice at Houston | Houston by 29.3 | Houston -30 | Rice | ||
| 8:00pm | San Diego State at UNLV | UNLV by 8.1 | UNLV -6 | UNLV | |
| 9:00pm | UCLA at USC | USC by 10.9 | USC -13 | UCLA | |
| 9:30pm | Navy at Hawaii | Hawaii by 4.0 | Hawaii +9.5 | Hawaii |
- 4-9-1 on Thursday/Friday. Missed Boise, Nebraska, Bama, and NIU by three points or less. Bitches, man.
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Well, from what I've gathered by living out here the last four years or so
If you can average between 55-60 percent for the season, you would be a big winner and rolling in the dough.
The way things tend to go is that as you move further into the season, it becomes tougher to make definitive calls because of the way that the lines are set.
Earlier in the year, you should have more success because things, for the most part, are more fluid.
As the body of work becomes clearer and less fuzzy, you have to start picking your spots and only go with “sure things.” Which isn’t foolproof, but it’s how one keeps from losing ones shirt.
"Huey: [narrating] I did battle with ignorance today, and ignorance won. I admit that I'm often... vexed at the behavior of my people. Yeah... 'vexed' is a good word." ~ The Boondocks
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WOW did Vegas violate me six ways to Sunday last week
I blame myself. I agreed with you on all picks. Consider it the touch of death. My pick ’ems along with my NFL jersey collection (ask Jay Cutler and Matt Forte this year) are automatic death penalties.
I've got somewhat different numbers
I’ve been tracking BTBS all year and in games with a difference of 3.5 or more from the spread it looks like this (also have week 5 in October because that Saturday was in October):
Sep: 70-48 (59.32%)
Oct: 99-80 (55.31%)
Nov: 51-50 (50.5%)
I’ve been using the final lines so the results are a little different, but it’s close enough. As I’m sure you know, it’s been awful since week 6. Weeks 5 and 6 were ridiculous (which I made bank on) when the difference was above 3.5 (better than 2 out of 3), but since then it’s pretty much a coin flip (just as I stepped up my investment in it LOL).
Weeks 1-6: 113-69 (62%)
Weeks 7-12: 107-109
So like you’ve said, it’s about picking your spots. On the year it’s pretty much a coin flip when the difference from the spread is 3 points or less (102-99). I think a pretty reasonable goal for next year would be 60-60-55. It would be hard to improve upon the early season numbers because you are basing it mostly off of projections and 60% is tough to top. Also, by November people and Vegas have a pretty good feel for teams so it’s hard to beat the system.
Tracking +/- 7 Points
Have you tracked your entire numbers when looking at a differential of 7 points in your projection and the spread?
I think there might be some value at that difference just from eye balling it through the picks week to week, although I have not actually tracked the numbers myself.
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