Week 10 BTBS Picks!

On we roll...

Last Week: We crept back over .500 last week, which is good I guess.  Sometime last week, I started reaching a conclusion that Bill Simmons reinforced in his weekend NFL picks column.  The fact is, the spreads are a whole lot tougher in late-October and November than in September and early-October.  I really want to be doing better than 50%, and I think 55%-60% is still possible, for the rest of this year (until I can update my methods) I'll take anything over 50% as victory.  And just looking at how tight a lot of my projections are compared to the spread, some good or bad breaks could make a pretty humongous difference this week.

(Meanwhile, knock on wood, but my overall struggles haven't translated to my ten-per-week FO picks, in which I've gone 14-6 over the last two weeks.  Again, KNOCK ON WOOD.  In fact, why did I even bring this up with my amazing jinx power??  I suck.)

Category Last Week Season
All Games 27-26 (50.9%) 245-195-6 (55.6%)
Big 12 2-4 (33.3%) 34-28-2 (54.7%)
"LOCKS" 6-4 (60.0%) 26-22-1 (54.1%)

 

Yep, the "LOCKS" are still anything but.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Sat., 11/7 11:00am Central Florida at Texas UT by 32.2 UT -34.5 UCF (WIN)
11:30am Kansas at Kansas State KU by 4 KU -3 KU
12:30pm Texas A&M at Colorado ATM by 3.5 ATM -5 CU (WIN)
1:00pm Baylor at Missouri Mizzou by 16.5 Mizzou -17 Baylor (WIN)
2:30pm Oklahoma State at Iowa State ISU by 3.0 (?) ISU +7.5 ISU
7:00pm Oklahoma at Nebraska NU by 6.1 NU +6 NU (WIN)

 

  • My professional recommendation: lay off of all of these games, particularly the first four.  It makes me feel pretty confident in the quality of my picks with how close they are to the spread in most cases, but...those first four are TOO close to the spread.
  • Meanwhile, the last two picks are interesting to say the least.

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs., 11/5 6:30pm Virginia Tech at East Carolina VT by 24.0 VT -11.5 VT (WIN)
Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois NIU by 17.1 NIU -21 EMU
Miami-OH at Temple Temple by 7.0 Temple -14 M-OH (WIN)
Fri., 11/6 7:00pm Boise State at Louisiana Tech Boise by 11.7 Boise -21 La Tech (WIN)
Sat., 11/7 11:00am Central Florida at Texas UT by 32.2 UT -34.5 UCF (WIN)
Illinois at Minnesota Minny by 17.8 Minny -6 Minny
Louisville at West Virginia WVU by 18.2 WVU -19.5 L'ville (WIN)
Northwestern at Iowa Iowa by 31.8 Iowa -17.5 Iowa
Purdue at Michigan UM by 2.5 UM -4 Purdue (WIN)
Syracuse at Pittsburgh Pitt by 13.4 Pitt -20.5 'Cuse
Virginia at Miami-FL Miami by 21.8 Miami -13.5 Miami (WIN)
W'ern Michigan at Michigan State MSU by 25.2 MSU -18 MSU (WIN)
Wisconsin at Indiana Wiscy by 15.8 Wiscy -11 Wiscy
11:21am South Carolina at Arkansas Hogs by 8.8 Hogs -5.5 Hogs (WIN)
11:30am Kansas at Kansas State KU by 4.0 KU -3 KU
12:00pm Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky UK by 23.8 N/A
Tennessee Tech at Georgia UGa by 46.2 N/A
Maryland at N.C. State NC St by 2.2 NC St -7 Maryland (TIE)
12:30pm Furman at Auburn Auburn by 29.4 N/A
12:30pm Texas A&M at Colorado ATM by 3.5 ATM -5 CU (WIN)
1:00pm Baylor at Missouri Mizzou by 16.5 Mizzou -17 Baylor (WIN)
BYU at Wyoming BYU by 7.6 BYU -13 Wyoming
Florida Atlantic at UAB FAU by 2.2 FAU +5 FAU
1:30pm Navy at Notre Dame ND by 8.8 ND -11
Navy (WIN)
2:00pm Rice at SMU SMU by 20.8 SMU -18 SMU
2:30pm Army at Air Force AFA by 28.1 AFA -17 AFA (WIN)
Duke at North Carolina UNC by 13.2 UNC -8.5 UNC (WIN)
Kent State at Akron Akron by 4.9 Akron +3 Akron (WIN)
LSU at Alabama 'Bama by 23.4 'Bama -9 'BAMA (TIE)
Ohio State at Penn State PSU by 15.9 PSU -4 PSU
Oklahoma State at Iowa State ISU by 3.0 ISU +7.5 ISU
Oregon at Stanford Ducks by 17.7 Ducks -5 Ducks
UL-Lafayette at Arkansas State ASU by 17.9 ASU -12 ASU
UTEP at Tulane Tulane by 1.7 Tulane +7 Tulane (WIN)
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech GT by 11.1 GT -15 Wake (WIN)
Washington at UCLA UCLA by 9.1 UCLA -4 UCLA
Washington State at Arizona Arizona by 31.7 Arizona -31 Arizona (WIN)
3:00pm TCU at San Diego State TCU by 20.2 TCU -24.5 SDSU
3:30pm Florida Int'l at Middle Tennessee MTSU by 20.8 MTSU -12.5 MTSU (WIN)
4:00pm Troy at Western Kentucky Troy by 15.9 Troy -24 WKU (WIN)
5:00pm New Mexico at Utah Utah by 30.9 Utah -27 Utah (WIN)
6:00pm Memphis at Tennessee Vols by 37.3 Vols -26 Vols (WIN)
Oregon State at California Cal by 4.6 Cal -7 OSU (WIN)
6:15pm Vanderbilt at Florida UF by 50.4 UF -32.5 FLORIDA
6:30pm Northern Arizona at Ole Miss Ole Miss by 32.1 N/A
Houston at Tulsa Tulsa by 3.9 Tulsa +1.5 Tulsa (WIN)
6:45pm Florida State at Clemson Clemson by 14.7 Clemson -8.5 Clemson (WIN)
7:00pm Connecticut at Cincinnati Cincy by 22.4 Cincy -16.5
Cincy
Oklahoma at Nebraska NU by 6.1 NU +6 NU (WIN)
USC at Arizona State USC by 7.9 USC -11 ASU (WIN)
9:00pm Colorado State at UNLV CSU by 7.1 CSU -1.5 CSU
9:05pm Utah State at Hawaii Hawaii by 11.7 Hawaii -3 Hawaii (WIN)
9:30pm Fresno State at Idaho Fresno by 4.7 Fresno -7 Idaho
Sun., 11/8 7:30pm Nevada at San Jose State SJSU by 2.7 SJSU +13 SJSU
  • Not a ton of "LOCKS" this week, though I'm sure I've missed a couple.  Loved the "Florida by 50" projection.  I know Florida's catching some crap for not living up to expectations, but again...they and Alabama are so far ahead of everybody else in the rankings.  The only reason they've seemed disappointing is that they were supposed to be the most recent G.O.A.T., and they're only really good instead.
  • 28-18-2 for the week.
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