BTBS Bowl Picks!

by Bill C. on Dec 19, 2009 11:00 AM CST in National Football 2009

Picks are due very soon, (though there is still some time to go here and submit them) so it's time to reveal the final BTBS picks of the season. I disagree with about ten of these picks, so we'll see how it goes...either way, it's been a semi-successful season of picks. I'm really confident in my preseason projections system moving forward, but I've got to figure out how to not get whipped repeatedly once Vegas figures teams out by October.

Category	Last 2 Wks*	Season
All Games	6-8-1 (43.3%)	352-310-9 (53.1%)
Big 12	1-0	47-39-2 (54.5%)
"LOCKS"	0-0	30-30-2 (50.0%)

* "Last 2 Wks" entails Championship Saturday two weeks ago and Army-Navy last week.

The good news is, even if I go 0-34 in bowls, I'm guaranteed to be over .500 for the season. So I've got THAT going for me...

Date	Time	Game	Projection	Spread	ATS Verdict
12/19	3:30pm	Fresno State vs Wyoming	Fresno by 4.3	Fresno -10.5	Wyoming
	7:00pm	Central Florida vs Rutgers	UCF by 5.0	UCF +2	UCF
12/20	7:30pm	Southern Miss vs Mid. Tenn. St.	MTSU by 6.7	MTSU +3.5	MTSU
12/22	7:00pm	Oregon State vs BYU	BYU by 12.5?	BYU +1.5	BYU
12/23	7:00pm	Utah vs California	Utah by 11.8	Utah +3	UTAH
12/24	7:00pm	Nevada vs SMU	Nevada by 18.8	Nevada -14	Nevada
12/26	12:00pm	Marshall vs Ohio	Ohio by 1.9	Ohio -2	Marshall
	3:30pm	Pittsburgh vs North Carolina	Pitt by 5.3	Pitt -3	Pitt
	7:00pm	Boston College vs USC	USC by 5.1?	USC -9	BC
12/27	7:30pm	Kentucky vs Clemson	Clemson by 11.1	Clemson -7	Clemson
12/28	4:00pm	Texas A&M vs Georgia	ATM by 2.5?	ATM +7	ATM
12/29	3:30pm	UCLA vs Temple	UCLA by 4.2	UCLA -4	UCLA
	7:00pm	Miami-FL vs Wisconsin	Miami by 2.2	Miami -3	Miami
12/30	3:30pm	Bowling Green vs Idaho	BGSU by 4.8	PICK	BGSU
	7:00pm	Arizona vs Nebraska	NU by 5.1	NU +1	NU
12/31	11:00am	Houston vs Air Force	AFA by 2.5	AFA +5	AFA
	1:00pm	Oklahoma vs Stanford	OU by 16.2	OU -9.5	OU
	2:30pm	Navy vs Missouri	Mizzou by 10.4	Mizzou -6	Mizzou
	5:00pm	Minnesota vs Iowa State	Minny by 4.2	Minny -3	Minnesota
	6:30pm	Virginia Tech vs Tennessee	VT by 4.7	VT -4.5	VT
1/1	10:00am	Northwestern vs Auburn	Auburn by 15.4	Auburn -8	Auburn
	12:00pm	Penn State vs LSU	PSU by 7.8	PSU -3	PSU
	12:00pm	West Virginia vs Florida State	WVU by 4.2	WVU -2.5	WVU
	3:30pm	Ohio State vs Oregon	Oregon by 0.2	Oregon -3.5	Ohio State
	7:30pm	Cincinnati vs Florida	UF by 15.1	UF -10	UF
1/2	11:00am	S. Florida vs Northern Illinois	USF by 8.6	USF -6.5	USF
	1:00pm	South Carolina vs UConn	S. Caro. by 8.6	S. Caro. -4.5	S. Caro.
	1:00pm	Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss	OSU by 1.6	OSU +3	OSU
	4:30pm	Arkansas vs East Carolina	Arkansas by 14.8	Arkansas -7.5	Arkansas
	8:00pm	Michigan State vs Texas Tech	Tech by 2.5	Tech -7	Mich. St.
1/4	7:00pm	Boise State vs TCU	TCU by 10.4	TCU -7	TCU
1/5	7:00pm	Iowa vs Georgia Tech	Iowa by 5.1	Iowa +4	Iowa
1/6	6:00pm	Central Michigan vs Troy	Troy by 4.7	Troy +4	Troy
1/7	7:00pm	Texas vs Alabama	'Bama by 6.1	'Bama -5.5	'Bama

The picks I disagree with the most: Wyoming-Fresno (I hope DC pulls something off, but I have the sneaking suspicion that Fresno wins easily), BYU-Oregon St. (I think OSU's built to beat a team like BYU), BC-USC (the numbers have loved BC all season, but I just don't see how they keep this one close), Air Force-Houston (I think Houston covers easily), and OSU-Ole Miss (Is Robinson healthy? And isn't he going to seem rusty as hell?).

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Comments

The numbers say

21-13 for me. Early returns fail to take into account:

1) My complete incompetence.
2) My dire lack of knowledge regarding any college football team, including MU
3) My hatred of numbers.

Prognosis:

Much like my brackets, I will hit one or two big upsets early on and look like a genius with a win % over 90. Approximately 1/3 of the way in, I will start missing big time and fall to my happy little 15th or 16th percentile ranking.

Once my pants are on, I make gold records.

by Other Side of the Pillow on Dec 19, 2009 11:14 AM CST reply actions