Week 14 BTBS Picks

Sigh.  Let's just get this season over with already.  Vegas has found that screwing me over is a lot of fun, and I'm not appreciating it.

Last Week: As if the week before weren't bad enough, I missed 13 of last week's 49 games by 3.5 points or less.  THIRTEEN.  Just keeping up with the scores on the ticker, I thought I was doing wonderfully on Friday and Saturday.  I was not.  Needless to say, it is hampering my confidence in the abilities of the S&P+ system to be a good money maker.  Yes, my first stab at season-long projections went strikingly well, but week-to-week ATS picks?  Not so much...yet.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 21-28 (42.9%) 346-302-8 (53.4%)
Big 12 1-4 (20.0%) 46-39-2 (54.0%)
"LOCKS" 1-1 (50.0%) 30-30-2 (50.0%)


The offseason plan is two-fold: 1) I'll do some analysis on which type of games I was most likely to miss and by how much (the goal is to create a spreadsheet I can send to people via request to see if they can spot trends I can't), and 2) once I have 2004-06 play-by-play data entered, go back to the beginning of 2004, set up the system to pick games week-to-week from 2004-09, and tinker until I find the "system" that works the best.

Oh yeah, and I plan to do a ton of work on my preseason projections system (having 2004-09 data to look at instead of 2007-08 is going to make a world of difference, and I'm really excited about the prospects) and different ways to measure defensive success.  It is indeed possible that I'll be busier in the offseason than I have been during the season.

Anyway, here are this week's picks.  Conference title games (and de facto title games) are in bold.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs., 12/3 6:00pm Arkansas State at Western Kentucky WKU by 6.5 WKU +6 WKU (WIN)
8:00pm Oregon State at Oregon UO by 21.7 UO -10 UO
Fri., 12/4 7:00pm Ohio vs Central Michigan CMU by 4.4 CMU -13 Ohio (WIN)
Sat., 12/5 11:00am Cincinnati at Pittsburgh Pitt by 3.6 Pitt +2 Pitt (WIN)
Houston vs East Carolina UH by 3.5 UH -3 UH
West Virginia at Rutgers WVU by 10.6 WVU +1.5 WVU (WIN)
11:30am Fresno State at Illinois Illini by 3.3 Illini -3 Illini
1:00pm San Jose State at Louisiana Tech La Tech by 18.6 La Tech -23.5 SJSU
2:00pm New Mexico State at Boise State Boise by 47.9 Boise -47.5 Boise
2:30pm Arizona at USC USC by 3.2 USC -7 Arizona
3:00pm Florida vs Alabama UF by 6.6 UF -6 UF
5:30pm California at Washington Cal by 2.4 Cal -7 U-Dub
6:00pm Florida Atlantic at Florida International FAU by 0.1 FAU +2 FAU
7:00pm Georgia Tech vs Clemson CU by 5.2 CU +1 CU
South Florida at Connecticut UConn by 11.2 UConn -7.5 UConn
Texas vs Nebraska UT by 11.8 UT -14 NU
10:30pm Wisconsin at Hawaii Wiscy by 2.3 Wiscy -12 Hawaii
  • Really, Vegas?  Really?  I have Boise by 47.9, and the line is Boise -47.5?  Really?  GET OUT OF MY HEAD, VEGAS.  Ugh.
  • In all, six of 17 games are projected within three points of the line (and another handful are within four or so), so depending on my luck, this could be really good or really bad.  And considering my luck's been atrocious lately, assume really bad.
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