Study Hall: Mizzou vs Oregon

Well, THAT was fun...

Mizzou 106, Oregon 69

Mizzou
Ducks
Points Per Minute
2.65 1.73
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.35 0.88
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.66 0.96
2-PT FG% 65.7% 33.3%
3-PT FG% 48.3% 22.2%
FT% 72.0% 77.8%
True Shooting % 70.7% 41.1%
Mizzou Ducks
Assists 28 5
Steals 8 8
Turnovers 15 20
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.40 0.65
Mizzou Ducks
Expected Offensive Rebounds 10 19
Offensive Rebounds 9 24
Difference -1 +5


Home games are fun.

I felt a blowout coming, but I chickened out and only predicted a 19-point win.  I should have known better.  I thought Oregon could win the rebounding battle, and if they were making their 3's, they might stay in the game a while.  Well, they did rebound well, but they were terrible from behind the arc, and after dilly-dallying for a few minutes, Mizzou stomped on the throat, which is always fun to watch.

Three-pointers.

So...are three-pointers a strength for this team now?  I'm so confused.

A near-perfect first half.

First half BCI: Mizzou 2.57, Oregon 0.42
First half FG%: Mizzou 60.0%, Oregon 24.2%
First half Points: Oregon 24, Kim English & Marcus Denmon 23

Eh?

Mizzou is a Top 20 team in Block %, but they are average at best in terms of rebounds.  I guess Mizzou's good at jumping high but bad at positioning.  Now, Oregon really is a strong rebounding team, and Mizzou improved their performance on the boards as compared to the Vandy game, but it's still clearly the single biggest issue this team faces moving forward.

Player stats after the jump.

Player Stats

Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
Laurence Bowers 22.2 1.06 21 Min, 14 Pts (5-for-6 FG), 7 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl
Zaire Taylor 20.2 0.88 23 Min, 16 Pts (6-for-10 FG, 4-for-5 3PT), 5 Reb, 4 Ast, 3 Stl
Marcus Denmon 13.9 0.63 22 Min, 17 Pts (6-for-13 FG, 4-for-10 3PT), 5 Reb
Kim English 11.2 0.53 21 Min, 14 Pts (6-for-12 FG, 2-for-5 3PT), 3 Ast
Justin Safford 9.9 0.50 20 Min, 9 Pts (3-for-4 FG, 2-for-2 3PT), 5 Reb, 2 Ast
Michael Dixon 9.3 0.46 20 Min, 10 Pts (3-for-7 FG), 3 Reb, 3 Ast
Keith Ramsey 4.9 0.20 24 Min, 7 Pts (2-for-3 FG), 4 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO
J.T. Tiller 4.7 0.36 13 Min, 10 Pts (3-for-4 FG), 3 TO
Jarrett Sutton 3.0 1.51 2 MIn, 3 Pts (1-for-1 FG, as always)
Tyler Stone 2.7 0.89 3 Min, 2 Pts (1-for-1 FG)
Miguel Paul 2.2 0.16 14 Min, 2 Pts (1-for-1 FG), 6 Ast, 4 TO
John Underwood 1.3 0.33 4 Min, 2 Pts (0-for-1 FG)
Steve Moore 0.9 0.07 13 Min, 0 Pts


* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • Laurence Bowers: box score filler.  When he stays out of foul trouble (i.e. when Mizzou plays teams without a talented, old-school 250-pounder at center), anyway.  He's shooting 64% for the season, grabbing almost three offensive rebounds (six overall) per game, blocks almost two shots per game, has a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio (and BCI of 3.83)...I'm not sure I've ever seen a player like him.  We just need to make sure he stays on the court.
  • By the way, Zaire Taylor is now shooting 59% from 3-point land.  Just thought I'd mention that.  As I mentioned before, he's never going to be a shoot-first guy, and we turned him into that, his percentages go down, but he has become a tremendously efficient shooter.  We talk about how Mizzou needs one more pure scorer, but I'm curious how the offense develops with Bowers and Taylor both shaping up to be astoundingly efficient.  Our "one more scorer" is probably one of these two, and I'm not sure what to think about that.
  • Then again, maybe that "one more scorer" is Marcus Denmon?  As Long Duk Dong would say, I so confuse.  When Mizzou looks good, they look so good that they mess with perspective.
  • So here's a question: how good is Steve Moore?  He's got size that no other Mizzou player has, and that alone makes him more valuable than his stats suggest.  He probably does good things for the overall team defense ... but how many good things?  Because from a box score perspective, he's a blank slate.  While we still have opportunities, I'd love to get Stone and/or Underwood (particularly Underwood) some PT with the first stringers just to see what happens, but I guess that's not going to happen.

Mizzou vs "Real" Opponents*

* "Real" opponents are BCS conference teams and solid mid-majors.  So far, Mizzou's "real" opponents have been, according to me: Old Dominion, Richmond, Vanderbilt, and Oregon.

Mizzou
Opp
Points Per Minute
1.92 1.74
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.08 0.98
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.31 1.27
2-PT FG% 46.1% 44.0%
3-PT FG% 38.8% 31.7%
FT% 73.5% 77.9%
True Shooting % 55.4% 52.5%
Mizzou Opp
Assists/Gm 15.5 11.3
Steals/Gm 9.5 6.5
Turnovers/Gm 13.5 20.3
Ball Control Index (BCI)
(Assists + Steals) / TO
1.85 0.88
Mizzou Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds 51 50
Offensive Rebounds 44 56
Difference -7 +6


Looking at just these four games, Mizzou is still looking alright from an offensive standpoint.  The assists are nice (the Oregon game just balanced out the Vandy game in the end), and they're shooting alright.  Really, the major question mark right now is in the rebounds department.  Only Laurence Bowers (0.28) is averaging more than 0.20 rebounds per minute.  For reference, DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons both averaged 0.26 last year.  Keith Ramsey (0.20), Justin Safford (0.16) and Steve Moore (0.16) all need to pick up their games.

Player Stats

Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
Zaire Taylor 15.8 0.51 31.0 MPG, 11.5 PPG (1.53 Pts Per Shot), 3.5 APG, 3.3 RPG, 3.5 SPG
Laurence Bowers 12.1 0.58 20.8 MPG, 8.3 PPG (1.38 PPS), 5.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 BPG
Kim English 10.6 0.45 23.8 MPG, 14.8 PPG (1.16 PPS), 2.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG
J.T. Tiller 8.8 0.34 25.8 MPG, 10.8 PPG (1.30 PPS), 3.8 APG, 2.3 RPG, 2.8 TOPG
Keith Ramsey 8.3 0.29 28.5 MPG, 4.8 PPG (1.73 PPS), 5.8 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.3 SPG
Marcus Denmon 7.2 0.39 18.5 MPG, 8.8 PPG (1.46 PPS), 2.5 RPG
Justin Safford 6.7 0.35 19.3 MPG, 7.8 PPG (1.29 PPS), 3.0 RPG
Mike Dixon 5.4 0.36 15.3 MPG, 8.0 PPG (1.14 PPS), 1.5 APG
Jarrett Sutton 3.5 1.77 2.0 MPG
Tyler Stone 1.6 1.05 1.5 MPG
John Underwood 1.6 0.39 4.0 MPG, 2.0 PPG
Miguel Paul -0.1 -0.01 9.7 MPG, 0.7 PPG, 2.0 APG
Steve Moore -0.3 -0.04 7.8 MPG, 0.0 PPG, 1.3 RPG


More reference points: DeMarre Carroll averaged 17.3/game last year, and Leo Lyons 13.5.  I've compared Bowers to Lyons numerous times, and the fact that Lyons '08-09 and Bowers '09-10 averaged/are averaging the same per-minute total (0.58) makes me feel better about that comparison.  The only question for now is, who's picking up the slack for Carroll's absence?  Right now the answer is, strangely enough, Zaire Taylor.

Summary

One batch of great play can make you forget how frustrated you were earlier in the week.  Oregon's not very good beyond the rebounding thing, but Mizzou played wonderfully.  If they play that well on Wednesday, they will blow a beyond-banged-up Oral Roberts team off the court.

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