It bears mentioning...
by Bill C. on Feb 21, 2009 10:03 PM CST
in Mizzou Basketball 08-09
24 comments
...that at this moment, three-fourths of the way through the conference season, Missouri controls its own destiny for the Big 12 title thanks to Texas' win over Oklahoma. Now, "destiny" requires Mizzou to win in Allen Field House, where they haven't won since Jeff Hafer was blocking shots there, not to mention beating KSU and OU at home and winning in College Station, but the fact remains: Missouri controls its own destiny right now. I have to let that sink in for a bit.
UPDATE, 11:08pm: Based off of Ken Pom's game odds and my own understanding of the tie-breakers, here are the odds for each possible finish in the now-3-way race for the Big 12 title based on the nine remaining games that involve these three teams.
1) Missouri, 2) Kansas, 3) Oklahoma: 8.1%
1) Missouri, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Kansas: 14.6%
1) Kansas, 2) Missouri, 3) Oklahoma: 17.8%
1) Kansas, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Missouri: 15.8%
1) Oklahoma, 2) Missouri, 3) Kansas: 10.8%
1) Oklahoma, 2) Kansas, 3) Missouri: 32.8%
Or, put another way...
MU's odds of winning the Big 12 title: 22.7%
KU's odds of winning the Big 12 title: 33.6%
OU's odds of winning the Big 12 title: 43.6%
Now, this is dependent on Blake Griffin (and everybody else) being healthy for all future games, and we'll see what happens with that. If Griffin misses Monday night's OU-KU game (and I doubt it), obviously the odds shift a bit in KU's favor. Uphill battle for Missouri, obviously, but...well...in most seasons, Mizzou's odds with four games remaining are somewhere between 0.1% and -11.0%.
(No, I don't know how you could have a negative percent chance, but if anybody could figure out how to do it, it would be Mizzou...)
Oh, and if you were wanting to know who to root for Monday night...
MU's odds of winning the Big 12 title if KU beats OU: 21.7%
OU's odds of winning the Big 12 title if OU beats KU: 23.3%.
Go OU! We want that 1.6%!
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I have a feeling that I know what a certain football coach will be doing tonight.
Drownin’ them sorrows.
Go Tigers.
My 2009 New Years Resolution: Quit feeding the trolls.
well this just means they'll lose wednesday before madness starts
and then we can all sleep soundly again.
by stlcardinalsfang on Feb 21, 2009 10:10 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
actually...
…now that I think about it like that, I’m Rec’ing that comment.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
I did the math...
…according to Ken Pom’s odds, we have a 17.6% chance of winning out.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
but for real
OU/KU/MU all control their own destiny because they all play each other.
so, simply speaking, whoever goes 2-0 in those games is going to win the conference.
by stlcardinalsfang on Feb 21, 2009 10:15 PM CST reply actions
not necessarily
We’re a game behind, so we can’t just go 2-0 in those two games.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
assuming we win the other games
yeah we can
by leghumpingjihadkiller on Feb 21, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions
well i said simply speaking
i’m assuming mizzou can take care of k-state and a & m, OU can take care of tech and okie state, and ku can take care of tech and texas(at home).
that being said, who do we root for on monday. i guess now it doesn’t really matter does it?
by stlcardinalsfang on Feb 21, 2009 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
Oklahoma
you NEVER root for Kansas….EVAR!!!!
by leghumpingjihadkiller on Feb 21, 2009 10:36 PM CST up reply actions
Oklahoma
I’d rather vomit than root for the Beakers.
(Mike Anderson) doesn’t need to go out and sign a bunch of McDonald’s All-Americans. He just needs to go find a few Burger King-type guys and he’ll get it done - Nolan Richardson on Mike Anderson
by tigers and chiefs fan on Feb 21, 2009 10:36 PM CST up reply actions
Meteor Game
It’s what we lovingly refer to in this household as a Meteor Game.
The only good outcome would be a meteor to come in & take out both teams. Generally, it is the KU-K-State game but almost always has Kansas or the Denver Broncos involved.
Cheers!
(Mike Anderson) doesn’t need to go out and sign a bunch of McDonald’s All-Americans. He just needs to go find a few Burger King-type guys and he’ll get it done - Nolan Richardson on Mike Anderson
by tigers and chiefs fan on Feb 22, 2009 7:52 AM CST up reply actions
Hey, Mr. Site Proprietor . . .
What are the odds of a two- or three-way tie in which we don’t win the tiebreaker? The league doesn’t break ties for championships, just for seedings. I’d take a co-champs banner.
by Michael Atchison on Feb 22, 2009 9:44 AM CST reply actions
Only 0.55%...
…almost any scenario in which we tie for 1st likely involves us beating OU and probably KU too, meaning in most “tie for 1st” scenarios, we win the tie-break. The only ways we don’t are if we tie with only KU (meaning OU somewhat fell apart) and KU beats us in Lawrence, meaning we split and they win the tie because they have a better North record. Which, when all is said and done, has about a 6 in 1000 chance of happening.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
Question:
Does Mizzou pass the loser of the Wake Forest/Duke game in the rankings? Do they deserve to?
capital letters suck.
I think we will move up...deserving it is another question all together
Michigan State (#6 in Coach’s, #5 in AP) also lost this week, so we might pass them up as well, but the chances are not quite as good. But we were close enough to both Wake and Duke in overall votes that I would see us moving past them.
"Write a wise saying and your name will live forever." - Anonymous
Rock M Nation
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