Mizzou-ISU: Statistical...Trap Game? What Trap Game?

Seriously, Gary Link was just loving life yesterday on the radio...he was getting to use all his negative sayings ("Bad things happen to bad teams," et al) about somebody other than Mizzou.  Mizzou was getting the friendly rims, Mizzou was getting the loose balls, and Iowa State was making the mental errors.  I could get used to this.

...

...

...somebody knock on wood, STAT.

Mizzou 'Clones
Points Per Minute
2.05 1.70
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.22 1.01
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.34 1.19
2-PT FG% 65.2% 51.1%
3-PT FG% 33.3% 30.0%
FT% 37.5% 63.6%
True Shooting % 63.5% 55.0%
Mizzou 'Clones
Assists 28 17
Steals 7 6
Turnovers 9 14
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
3.89 1.64
Mizzou 'Clones
Expected Offensive Rebounds 10 11
Offensive Rebounds 7 7
Difference -3 -4
  • 28 assists!  Twenty!  Eight!  Assists!
  • This one was clearly won on the offensive side of the court.  Iowa State slowed the tempo down rather well, as this game was played at a pace about 5 possessions slower than the normal Missouri game.  They also averaged over 1 point per possession, which is higher than the typical Missouri opponent as well.  But Mizzou's 1.22 points per possession is pretty ridiculous...and considering they did that while only shooting 8 free throws (and making only 3)?  Really ridiculous.
  • ISU's 1.64 BCI was actually pretty high as well...but yeah, when Mizzou's offense is humming like this (and when DeMarre Carroll is shooting 14-for-freaking-20), it doesn't really matter.
Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 25.51 0.82 31 Pts, 9 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Blk, 3 TO
Kim English 13.56 0.62 16 Pts, 5 Reb, 4 Ast
J.T. Tiller 13.19 0.45 6 Pts, 4 Reb, 6 Ast, 3 Stl
Zaire Taylor 8.83 0.32 2 Pts, 2 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl
Matt Lawrence 7.47 0.50 6 Pts, 4 Reb, 2 Ast
Leo Lyons 6.97 0.24 12 Pts, 4 Reb, 2 Ast
Miguel Paul 2.99 0.33 0 Pts, 3 Ast, 1 Stl
Justin Safford 2.86 0.41 4 Pts
Marcus Denmon 2.74 0.17 5 Pts
Laurence Bowers 0.00 0.00 1 minute!
Steve Moore 0.00 0.00 1 minute
Michael Anderson Jr. -0.87 -0.87 1 minute
Keith Ramsey -2.24 -0.20 0 Pts, 3 Reb

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • JT Tiller in his last three games: 19 assists, 0 turnovers.  Just throwing that out there.
  • Good lord, Kimmie English's shot looks pretty...especially when they're hitting nothing but net.
  • English and Goose hit a couple of daggers in the second half when ISU was attempting to make a run.  Love seeing that.  And they also had 9 combined rebounds and 6 combined assists!

vs Big 12
Mizzou: 7-2

Mizzou Opp.
Points Per Minute
2.06 1.77
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.13 0.98
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.37 1.22
2-PT FG% 53.1% 48.2%
3-PT FG% 41.1% 34.4%
FT% 67.4% 70.4%
True Shooting %
58.4% 52.6%
Mizzou Opp.
Assists 167 119
Steals 87 59
Turnovers 112 162
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.27 1.10
Mizzou Opp.
Expected Offensive Rebounds 109 114
Offensive Rebounds 89 104
Difference -20 -10
  • I have no idea when Mizzou actually became a solid 3-point shooting team, but I'll take it.  Denmon and English have both been hot a higher percentage of the time lately, and that means two different things, really: 1) more 3-point weapons (duh), and 2) if Matt Lawrence's shot isn't on, he only goes 0-for-2 or 0-for-3 instead of 1-for-8.  Both of these things help Mizzou's % tremendously.
  • Doubling up opponents and only getting outrebounded by about one "expected" rebound per game is a pretty nice formula.
Player AdjGS/Gm* GS/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 18.47 0.64 18.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.1 SPG
Leo Lyons 11.65 0.52 14.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.8 APG
Zaire Taylor 11.27 0.41 6.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1.3 SPG
J.T. Tiller 10.81 0.43 8.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, 2.0 SPG
Marcus Denmon 6.75 0.38 8.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.2 APG
Kim English 6.66 0.38 7.8 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.7 APG
Matt Lawrence 6.27 0.33 7.0 PPG, 1.9 RPG
Keith Ramsey 4.15 0.24 4.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG
Laurence Bowers 3.20 0.50 3.6 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Miguel Paul 2.49 0.27 1.8 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 1.3 APG
Justin Safford 2.20 0.30 2.7 PPG, 1.8 RPG
Michael Anderson Jr. 0.28 0.06 0.0 PPG
Jarrett Sutton 0.24 0.08 1.5 PPG
Steve Moore -0.32 -0.08 1.0 PPG
  • Yeah, DeMarre almost HAS to be 1st-team all-conference at this point, doesn't he?

Rachel Phelps Update: three pieces of the puzzle (i.e. wins to basically clinch an NCAA Tourney bid) to go.

 


Oh yeah, and bring on friggin' Kansas.


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