Mizzou-Marquette: Statistical Onions


I loved most of the post title suggestions here (and here, and here), but a) I couldn't really decide on one in particular (though Statistical Over the Line was nicely mean and Lebowski-lovely), and b) when you outscore your opponent 9-1 in the last two minutes to advance to the Sweet Sixteen, your testicular fortitude must be acknowledged.

Mizzou Marquette
Points Per Minute
2.08 1.98
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.18 1.13
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.30 1.32
2-PT FG% 57.1% 39.1%
3-PT FG% 31.8% 35.7%
FT% 70.0% 84.8%
True Shooting % 57.0% 53.0%
Mizzou Marquette
Assists 14 8
Steals 6 4
Turnovers 7 12
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.86 1.00
Mizzou Marquette
Expected Offensive Rebounds 13 14
Offensive Rebounds 10 16
Difference -3 +2

 

  • Lost in the second half offensive struggles was how efficient Mizzou was in this game (thanks mostly to Kim English, I guess).  Marquette isn't a wonderful defensive team, but they played fantastically in the second half, and Mizzou still managed 1.18 points per possession, 7 turnovers and a true shooting % of 57.0%.  People always talk about Mizzou's full-court defense, but while that defense led to some easy possessions, Mizzou's offensive efficiency continues to get overlooked.
  • Ahh, BCI.  How did I ever live without you?  This game came down to Mizzou's BCI versus Marquette's rebounding, and that battle was pretty much a draw.  I think you'll see a similar dynamic against Memphis, but we'll take a look at that later on.
  • Then again, BCI led to Marquette's comeback as well.

    1st Half BCI: Mizzou 8.00, Marquette 0.40
    2nd Half BCI: Marquette 4.00, Mizzou 0.80
  • Stats from the last 1:59:

    Points: Mizzou 9, Marquette 1
    Free Throws: Mizzou 7-for-7, Marquette 1-for-2
    Rebounds: Mizzou 3 (including team rebounds), Marquette 0
    Turnovers: Marquette 1, Mizzou 0


    Onions!

Player Stats

Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 19.71 0.58 15 Pts, 8 Reb, 3 Ast
Matt Lawrence 14.75 0.55 16 Pts, 3 Reb
Kim English 14.09 1.17 17 Pts
J.T. Tiller 13.57 0.42 10 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Ast, 3 Stl
Leo Lyons 12.01 0.36 18 Pts, 4 Reb
Zaire Taylor 4.05 0.15 4 Pts, 4 Reb, 2 Ast
Miguel Paul 1.31 0.26 0 Pts, 2 Ast
Keith Ramsey 1.17 0.12 0 Pts, 2 Reb, 2 Ast
Marcus Denmon 1.17 0.08 3 Pts, 2 Reb
Justin Safford -1.04 -0.21 0 Pts


* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • Kim English worked his way into Mizzou Tiger lore with this game, but the win was about so much more than Kimmeh.  For one thing, he only played 12 minutes--without those 12 minutes, Mizzou wouldn't have won, but that leaves 28 minutes that he wasn't on the court.  For another, he was only Mizzou's #3 player from an AdjGS perspective.
  • JYD disappeared for chunks of the first half (only 4 points at half), but while guys like English, Lyons and Tiller stole the headlines, all DeMarre did in the second half was go 4-for-4 from the field, score 11 points and grab 4 rebounds.  He cleans up the trash, and Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
  • Matt Lawrence may have left his shot in Columbia, but he made the biggest 3-point attempt of his life with 5:10 left, when Marquette had taken a 1-point lead and had all the momentum.  Goose also took advantage of the fact that Marquette was overplaying him around the 3-point line--he drove on multiple occasions and went 5-for-5 from inside the arc...and Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
  • Leo Lyons was majorly off-kilter at the beginning of the second half, missing a series of awkward looking shots.  Plus, as one of Mizzou's major big men, he was out of position on quite a few Marquette shots, allowing the Golden Eagles to grab far too many offensive rebounds (JYD was also a culprit here).  But despite Marquette's defense being allowed to get very physical inside, Leo never quit, and he not only scored on a huge putback with 0:48 left, but he also went 3-for-3 from the FT line in the last minute.  Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
  • Marquette fans will misguidedly remember JT Tiller for the free throws he didn't take in this game, but he made two gigantic ones with 1:50 left (making the whole "They brought in a better FT shooter!!!!" cry a bit weak...especially since Tiller also has a better FT% on the season, but whatever), and along with the typical Tiller stat line (3 reb, 3 ast, 3 stl), it's safe to say...Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
  • Zaire Taylor was only 2-for-7 from the field and managed only two assists while fighting off foul trouble, but with Mizzou shocked and exhausted in the huddle during a timeout, Mr. Coffee reminded everybody to stay loose and win the game.  It was a good enough pep talk that Leo mentioned it after the game.  Oh yeah, Taylor also grabbed the huge offensive rebound that led to Lyons' 3-point play with 0:48 left.  You guessed it--Mizzou wouldn't have won without him.
  • If I have one complaint in this game, it's that Mike Anderson did not use his bench nearly enough.  Mizzou made a major move in the first half with guys like Kimmeh, Keith Ramsey and Marcus Denmon on the court, but the Mizzou bench played only 47 minutes yesterday--a pretty low total for them.  It almost backfired when Mizzou's starters appeared to start to run out of gas down the stretch (DeMarre played 34 minutes, Leo 33, Tiller 32, Goose 27, Taylor 27), but power to them for sucking it up and making the plays.  Against an even more physical, athletic team in Memphis, Anderson will need to use the bench better (and having Party Starter Bowers back will help...I assume Bowers will be back by then).

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

 

Mizzou Opp
Points Per Minute
2.01 1.73
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.22 1.05
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.31 1.11
2-PT FG% 51.5% 37.3%
3-PT FG% 31.8% 35.7%
FT% 79.5% 77.8%
True Shooting % 57.4% 48.0%
Mizzou Opp
Assists 33 19
Steals 10 5
Turnovers 11 21
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
3.91 1.14
Mizzou Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds 24 30
Offensive Rebounds 19 33
Difference -5 +3
  • It's funny how things have become exaggerated in the tourney--Mizzou has an even starker BCI advantage than in the regular season, and they're getting outrebounded at a higher rate as well.
  • Underrated stat: opponents are shooting 37.3% from 2-point range in the tourney against Mizzou.  A lot of that is probably luck (Marquette missed a lot of bunnies early in the second half), but don't underestimate how well guys like Leo Lyons obstruct shots with good straight-up defense.
Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 19.08 0.59 14.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.0 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG
Leo Lyons 18.19 0.59 20.5 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 APG
Kim English 13.60 1.18 15.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG
J.T. Tiller 11.51 0.38 10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG
Matt Lawrence 6.56 0.25 9.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.0 SPG
Zaire Taylor 4.95 0.16 6.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.5 APG
Keith Ramsey 2.98 0.25 2.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 APG
Steve Moore 1.55 1.55 1 minute
Justin Safford 0.54 0.11 0.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Marcus Denmon 0.42 0.03 2.5 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 1.5 APG
Miguel Paul 0.36 0.07 0.0 PPG, 1.5 APG
Michael Anderson Jr. 0.36 0.36 1 minute
Jarrett Sutton 0.00 0.00 <1 minute
  • Ten years from now, ask a random Mizzou fan how many points Kim English averaged his freshman year, and the typical answer would probably be in the 10-12 PPG range.  The way Kimmeh has played in his first two NCAA tournament games are how you create legends/myths and quickly work your way into Mizzou lore.  I've seen Kimmeh compared to Jimmy McKinney a few times, in terms of how much leadership they showed as freshmen, but in his two NCAA tourney games, McKinney shot 4-for-12 with 11 points.  English has done just a hair better than that.
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