Mizzou-UConn: Statistical...so close

I guess we used up our luck with Marcus Denmon's 5 points (the bank shot and the 70-footer) at the end of the first half of the Memphis game.  When the game was on the line, Mizzou's shots rimmed out and UConn's shots banked in.  That was the difference.  It's basketball.

All the credit in the world to UConn for making their free throws, grabbing the rebounds, and regaining their composure when Mizzou's pressure all but broke them down at the beginning of the second half, but in a game where both teams' styles dominated (Mizzou with the turnovers, UConn with the boards), the game came down to bounces, and UConn got them.

(You'd think the Sports God would have favored the underdog--especially one in the "Best program to never make the Final Four" race--but I guess after George Mason got the bounces over UConn in '06, UConn got the nod.  Such is life.)

With that minor bout of self-pity out of the way, it's on to the stats!

Mizzou UConn
Points Per Minute
1.88 2.05
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.01 1.11
Points Per Shot (PPS)
0.99 1.55
2-PT FG% 46.6% 61.0%
3-PT FG% 27.8% 16.7%
FT% 50.0% 58.3%
True Shooting % 46.1% 61.1%
Mizzou UConn
Assists 21 15
Steals 10 3
Turnovers 6 17
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
5.17 1.06
Mizzou UConn
Expected Offensive Rebounds 17 10
Offensive Rebounds 12 11
Difference -5 +1

 

  • Rarely do you see a game in which both teams' identities came out in such full force.  MU dominated with its style (5.17 BCI), while UConn dominated with its style (+6 expected rebounds, major advantage in true shooting %).  Mizzou had a couple of opportunities with open shots in the second half, but they just didn't fall.

 

Player Stats

Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
J.T. Tiller 14.63 0.56 8 Pts, 5 Reb. 5 Ast, 2 Stl
Keith Ramsey 12.77 0.75 8 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Ast, 2 Stl
Matt Lawrence 11.84 0.44 13 Pts, 3 Reb, 2 Ast
Leo Lyons 10.24 0.41 13 Pts, 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl, 3 TO
Justin Safford 8.78 0.59 9 Pts, 4 Reb
Zaire Taylor 6.25 0.17 8 Pts, 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl
DeMarre Carroll 6.12 0.25 12 Pts, 4 Reb
Marcus Denmon 2.53 0.18 2 Pts, 2 Reb, 2 Ast
Miguel Paul 2.26 0.45 2 Pts
Laurence Bowers 1.33 0.66 2 minutes
Michael Anderson Jr. -0.53 -0.53 1 minute
Kim English -4.26 -0.53 0 Pts, 2 Reb


* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • If Mizzou had won this game, chances are very good that a guy scoring in single digits would have been the MVP.  JT Tiller (8 points), Justin Safford (9) and Keith Ramsey (8) were freaking outstanding.
  • Really, a disappointing final game of the season for Kim English, but...yeah, without English Mizzou would have been knocked out in the second round.

Keys to the Game Revisited

From this morning's preview.

  1. Pace.  This was a 72-possession game.  That slightly favored Mizzou, but not nearly enough.  Mizzou sped UConn up a couple of times, but one more good run of craziness could have made the difference.

  2. DeMarre & Leo's Points Per Shot.  Leo & DeMarre's points per shot in the first three games of the tournament: 1.46.  Today: 1.00.  An average of 1.46 would have meant another 12 points.  In a 7-point loss.

  3. The last five minutes of the first half.  In the last five minutes of the half, UConn outscored Mizzou, 14-10, with Hasheem Thabeet on the bench.  Mizzou had two opportunities on which they just couldn't cash in, and this was one of them (the other being the five minutes after Mizzou took the lead in the second half and UConn was severely on the ropes).

Mizzou vs NCAA Tournament

Mizzou Opp
Points Per Minute
2.11 1.94
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.17 1.08
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.30 1.26
2-PT FG% 54.6% 50.0%
3-PT FG% 30.3% 25.8%
FT% 69.8% 72.5%
True Shooting % 55.7% 52.9%
Mizzou Opp
Assists/Gm 17.8 12.5
Steals/Gm 7.3 4.0
Turnovers/Gm 7.3 13.0
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
3.45 1.27
Mizzou Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm 13.3 13.5
Offensive Rebounds/Gm 10.8 14.8
Difference -2.5 +1.3
  • Really just an outstanding set of numbers for a 4-game set against Cornell, Marquette, Memphis and UConn.  Mizzou established its identity and won basically every category but rebounding.
Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 16.44 0.56 14.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG
J.T. Tiller 15.76 0.52 13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.3 APG, 2.0 SPG
Leo Lyons 14.93 0.51 17.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.0 APG
Matt Lawrence 8.74 0.33 11.0 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.0 SPG
Zaire Taylor 8.19 0.28 8.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.3 SPG
Kim English 7.14 0.66 9.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Keith Ramsey 4.12 0.37 3.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.3 APG
Justin Safford 4.06 0.43 4.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG
Marcus Denmon 1.60 0.11 3.0 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 APG
Steve Moore 1.60 1.60 1 minute
Laurence Bowers 1.35 0.34 8 minutes
Miguel Paul 0.46 0.07 0.5 PPG, 1.3 APG
Jarrett Sutton 0.00 0.00 <1 minute
Michael Anderson Jr. -0.06 -0.06 2 minutes
  • Compared to season averages, here are the players who outplayed their season AdjGS/min averages in the NCAA Tournament: Kim English (+0.35), JT Tiller (+0.14), Justin Safford (+0.09), Keith Ramsey (+0.03).
  • Here are the players who didn't outplay their season average (some of which is to be expected considering the jump in competition): Marcus Denmon (-0.21), Laurence Bowers (-0.17, albeit in an extremely small sample size), Miguel Paul (-0.12), Leo Lyons (-0.07), Matt Lawrence (-0.07), DeMarre Carroll (-0.06), Zaire Taylor (-0.03).

Plenty will be written in the next few days about what this season meant, how much we'll miss these seniors, how bright the future may be, etc., but for now I'll just say that I hope people enjoyed these wrap-ups (and previews), I hope people came to understand the team more because of them, and...well...only eight months until your next basketball stat preview!  Start the countdown, and after a few days of post-mortem posting, flip the switch to football season!

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