Mizzou-Oklahoma: Statistical Thanks to the Seniors

The four seniors on this team have been through a ridiculous number of highs and lows.  Two of them--Matt Lawrence and Leo Lyons--were part of Quin Snyder's last recruiting class and have experienced MAJOR ups and downs in terms of production level and (in Lyons' case) engagement with the team.  But they've been two of the more unique and enigmatic players Mizzou has had in a long, long time, and it's absolutely thrilling that they can end their careers in the NCAA Tournament.

DeMarre Carroll, on the other hand, wasn't a Quin guy.  He was in Mike Anderson's blood.  He came to Mizzou because of his uncle, but anybody who saw him failing to hold it together during the Senior Night ceremonies knows how much this place means to him now.  In just one season, we've gone from complaining/worrying about dreadful attendance to selling out (or almost selling out) every game.  And considering DeMarre has been the face and personality of this program this year (or the valedictorian, as Mitch Holtus referred to him last night), that has to mean more to him than anybody else.

Not only did all three of these players contribute mightily to a win last night...but so did fellow senior Michael Anderson Jr., who played the five minutes of his life in starting.  I think we're all excited about where this program is headed, but this team loses a lot of both talent and personality when these seniors head off into the sunset.

Mizzou OU
Points Per Minute
1.83 1.60
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.04 0.92
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.14 1.07
2-PT FG% 47.7% 50.0%
3-PT FG% 35.0% 22.2%
FT% 58.8% 52.6%
True Shooting % 51.1% 46.8%
Mizzou OU
Assists 13 13
Steals 12 5
Turnovers 9 22
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.78 0.82
Mizzou OU
Expected Offensive Rebounds 14 14
Offensive Rebounds 10 21
Difference -4 +7
  • Neither team shot very well last night--both teams' True Shooting % was well below average.  OU had a TS% of 60.1% in Big 12 play and was held over 13% below that; meanwhile, Mizzou was closer to their average of 55.5% but still 4% below.
  • BCI!  BCI!  A low number of assists for the Tigers, but the steal and turnover numbers were drastically in Mizzou's favor.  And as usual, that made the difference in the game.
  • Mizzou got off to a VERY hot start on the boards...and then OU dominated.  I would, however, love to see the number of points OU and MU got off of putbacks.  It seemed like every Mizzou offensive rebound ended up in a bucket.

Player Stats

Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 19.74 0.58 15 Pts, 10 Reb (4 Off)
Zaire Taylor 14.03 0.54 10 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Ast, 3 Stl, 4 PF
J.T. Tiller 12.73 0.64 13 Pts, 2 Reb, 3 Ast, 4 PF
Justin Safford! 9.74 1.39 6 Pts, 3 Reb, 3 Stl
Leo Lyons 7.01 0.26 15 Pts, 2 Reb, 5 TO, 4 PF
Matt Lawrence 5.85 0.28 7 Pts, 4 Reb
Marcus Denmon 5.85 0.22 6 Pts, 3 Reb, 2 Ast
Michael Anderson Jr. 2.99 0.60 0 Pts, 2 Stl
Laurence Bowers 1.69 0.56 0 Pts, 2 Reb
Keith Ramsey -0.52 -0.06 0 Pts, another missed layup
Miguel Paul -2.34 -0.29 0 Pts
Kim English -3.77 -0.27 1 Pt

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • Typical reliable game from JYD.  Nothing crazy in the BCI department--just points and rebounds and hustle.
  • Meanwhile, Leo had a surprisingly poor game in the box score.  I didn't realize as the game was progressing that he was struggling so much with turnovers--I just noticed the Good Leo plays.  But with Bad Leo committing 5 TOs and 4 fouls, that significantly impacted the overall numbers.  Lost in the box score, however, was the defensive job Leo did on Blake Griffin.  Griffin scored only 5 points after halftime and was harassed into 6 turnovers.  The TOs mostly came from double-teams and team pressure, but Lyons' on-ball and post-up defense kept BG from getting too many easy looks.  Really, even when he was scoring 11 points in the first half, four of those points came off of jumpers that you'll HAPPILY let BG take any time.  Fantastic job in your last home game, Good Leo.
  • Two VERY unsung Tigers combined for 12 huge minutes.  Justin Safford, who has undoubtedly been outplayed by Laurence Bowers over the last two months, had easily the best game of his career last night.  In just 7 minutes, he managed 6 points (on two unlikely 3-pointers), 3 defensive rebounds, and 3 huge steals, at least two of which came directly from Griffin.  He even got in Griffin's face a couple times, almost overdoing the "I'm not scared of you" gambit, but not quite.

    Meanwhile...how about Michael Anderson Jr.??  We were worried that Papa Anderson was going to need to call a pretty quick timeout early in the game to get him out of there after giving him the start.  Instead, Jeff Capel had to call timeout five minutes into the game because Mizzou was playing so well with Junior on the court (up 13-5).  I love the idea of the +/- measure despite its obvious flaws (who else was on the court while your +/- was going up or down?), but there's no questioning that Junior's +8 from last night, while on the court with nine other starters, was well-earned.  Kudos, Junior.
  • You know Safford must have played well when I'm not even getting cranky about Bowers only playing 3 minutes.

    (Okay, I'm still a little cranky about it, but that's just because I am who I am.)
  • You could tell Goose was a little amped early, as most of his missed jumpers went long, but he still managed 21 solid (and needed) minutes.  Why needed?  Because Kimmie English continues to struggle mightily.  Another game with a negative AdjGS for #24.  I do believe he may have left his jumper in Boulder.
  • Meanwhile, 26 HUGE minutes from Marcus Denmon, who has shown a lot of calmness and steely play in pressure situations ever since his near-meltdown against OSU (Remember that 6-point play?  Seems like three years ago, doesn't it?).  Denmon only went 2-for-8 from the field, but both makes came at big times, and he continues to play noticeably strong team defense and puts together a few rebounds and assists each game.
  • Keith Ramsey has NOT had a good few games.  He still plays good defense, but his offense has been dreadful.  He's missed at LEAST three layups in the last two games.  Jarrid Famous, we need your offensive ability next year.  DeMarcus Cousins, you too (that's right, we're strangely back on his list now).
  • Hustle & Flow: 26.76 AdjGS points.  Both guards averaged over 0.50 per minute, which is a VERY nice rate for the two guys who handled the ball the most.  Six assists, two turnovers, four steals, oh yeah and 8-for-15 shooting from the field in 46 minutes.  Outstanding.

Keys to the Game Revisited

(From Yesterday's Preview)

  1. The number '3'. Mizzou needed to limit OU's 3-point shooting and 3-point plays.  OU shot 4-for-18 from 3-point range (win), and while Taylor Griffin had, I think, three 3-point plays, I'm not sure Blake Griffin had any.  Not more than one, anyway.  Win.  Mizzou did a good job of, when they were beaten, accepting they were beaten and moving on to the next play.  Even when Juan Pattillo had that monster dunk after the offensive rebound, and it looked like OU was about to on a run, Mizzou immediately answered and stretched the lead back to double digits.  They had the answer all night, and they REALLY had the perimeter defense all night.

  2. The last five minutes of the first half.  Last five minutes: Mizzou 13, Oklahoma 7.  Win.

  3. Turnovers.  Turnovers: OU 22, Mizzou 9.  BCI: MU 2.78, OU 0.82.  Win.  Oh yeah, and Blake Griffin had six turnovers of his own.  Win win.

vs Big 12
Mizzou: 12-3

Mizzou Opp.
Points Per Minute
1.95 1.71
Points Per Possession (PPP)
1.08 0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS)
1.29 1.20
2-PT FG% 50.2% 47.1%
3-PT FG% 36.6% 33.8%
FT% 69.1% 68.1%
True Shooting %
55.2% 51.7%
Mizzou Opp.
Assists 264 191
Steals 151 95
Turnovers 180 285
Ball Control Index
(Assists + Steals) / TO
2.31 1.00
Mizzou Opp.
Expected Offensive Rebounds 192 190
Offensive Rebounds 160 190
Difference -32 +0

 

Player AdjGS/Gm* GS/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 18.26 0.62 17.3 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.3 APG
Leo Lyons 13.36 0.59 14.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.8 APG
J.T. Tiller 9.91 0.40 8.8 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.7 APG
Zaire Taylor 8.42 0.31 6.1 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.7 APG
Matt Lawrence 6.30 0.32 7.1 PPG, 1.9 RPG
Marcus Denmon 6.20 0.33 7.2 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.4 APG
Laurence Bowers 4.76 0.69 3.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Kim English 4.47 0.27 6.3 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 1.2 APG
Keith Ramsey 4.37 0.28 3.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG
Justin Safford 2.23 0.35 2.2 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Miguel Paul 0.94 0.10 1.7 PPG, 1.0 APG
Jarrett Sutton 0.21 0.10 1 great walk-on
Michael Anderson Jr. 0.32 0.08 1 great senior night!
Steve Moore -0.37 -0.13 1 Truman Patriot
  • I'm not sure when Justin Safford passed Keith Ramsey on a per-minute basis, but he has.  Meanwhile, the per-minute stats as a whole are certainly falling--only four players are averaging over 0.35 AdjGS/min, though clearly that's not a tremendous concern, as Mizzou is 25-5.  Twenty-five and freaking five!
  • (And yes, there's Party Starter Laurence Bowers still cranking at a 0.69 per minute rate.)
  • You can tell it's moved into the conventional wisdom: DeMarre Carroll will be 1st-team all-conference.  And while Leo won't make it, he's getting a lot closer.  He should certainly be 2nd-team now.  No idea what they'll do with JT Tiller--he probably won't make 2nd- or 3rd-team, but he is the front-runner for defensive player of the year.  Awesome.

Next up, a HUGE game in College Station.  I've said for a while that I'm a bit worried about that game--Texas A&M is playing for their tourney lives, and Mizzou wasn't going to have as much to play for.  But with the possibility of not only a #2 seed in the Big 12 Tourney on the line, but also a share of the conference title overall (in the unlikely scenario that KU loses at home to Texas), I think Mizzou will play well.  It will depend on how the two teams match up...and we'll take a look at that tomorrow.

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