Seeing a Route to the Promised Land

[UPDATE: Promoted to Front Page. Great work, DC.]

PowerMizzou has a nice little piece up today on MU's interest in a LB prospect from Florida. It includes this heartening little quote:

The addition of Josh Henson to Missouri's coaching staff has opened up whole new pipelines to the Tigers' recruiting process. One state that Missouri is targeting early on is Florida, and Henson's role has already influenced a standout linebacker from the Sunshine State.

Going back a few months, December to be exact, The Boy did an outstanding four part series comparing Gary Pinkel to his mentor "The Dogfather" Don James. One of the central points in the series is that it is extraordinarily difficult for a "working-class" or "middle-class" program (i.e., not one of roughly 10-15 traditional powerhouses) to work its way into the elite group. College football parallels social life--there's just not a lot of social mobility. The elite programs generally stay that way but there's a lot of volatiity for everyone else. Programs like Mizzou may see a stretch of relative success, generally when a recruiting class outperforms its incoming rankings. But, working- and middle-class programs cannot consistently land the four and five star recruits that portend long-term success (i.e., conference and national titles). The traditional powerhouses practically own the top recruits. It's as simple as that. (Actually, this is one reason I am not a huge playoff proponent. I'm not against *some* proposals, but I don't think the current system is the greatest injustice in the history of the world either--another topic for another time.)

One point that grew out of the comments in The Boy's series is that a potential route to upward mobility for non-elite programs is to broaden the recruiting base. When you cannot aspire to the elite status that often accompanies schools in talent-drenched areas like Texas, Florida, or SoCal you have to get more coverage. Think of it as more of a Tennessee model than a Florida model. UT probably has the shallowest in-state recruiting base in the SEC. Not surprisingly it has long had the broadest recruiting base in the SEC.

I thought Pinkel would do well, in the advent of Dave Christiansen taking the Wyoming job, to bring in a coach who could take the program into some new areas. Pinkel did exactly that when he brought in LSU's Josh Hensen, who gets us into traditional SEC areas. Who knows if Hensen will land this recruit? (He hasn't been highly recruited, though these things often change once bigger schools get involved.) Even if he comes, he certainly won't be the first lightly-recruited kid from Florida to play for Mizzou. Even if he comes, he may never develop. The point is that Henson is tapped into different networks for recruits than is traditional for the program; networks Mizzou has been unable to tap into previously.

When sociologists look at upward mobility what they often find is that one thing that separates those who move up from humble beginnings from those who do not is exposure to different social networks. That is, two kids may start out with identical amounts of poverty but one kid (sometimes by complete luck) gets tapped into people equipped to show him new information or new ways of doing things. A teacher, a social worker, a minister, etc. models and/or cultivates skills and habits that pay off for the kid down the line. The moments these super-critical connections are built are often the product of dumb luck, chance introductions. They are mundane and easy to overlook.

It may well be that hiring Josh Henson turns out to be one of those innocuous but important little moments in the history of this program. It has that ring to it. The odds are, of course, heavily stacked against it. But who cares? Every move Missouri makes to turn itself into an elite program from here on out has long odds attached to it.