Mizzou 2008-09: A Statistical Look Back - The Players

Player Stats

Player AdjGS* GmSc/Min Line
DeMarre Carroll 17.34 0.62 16.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.6 SPG (2.52 BCI)
Leo Lyons 13.50 0.58 14.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 SPG (1.31 BCI)
J.T. Tiller 9.33 0.38 8.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 SPG (3.49 BCI)
Matt Lawrence 8.28 0.40 9.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG (3.68 BCI)
Zaire Taylor 8.24 0.31 6.7 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.4 SPG (4.23 BCI)
Marcus Denmon 5.37 0.32 6.0 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.4 APG (2.44 BCI)
Keith Ramsey 4.66 0.34 3.6 PPG, 2.7 RPG (2.39 BCI)
Kim English 4.44 0.31 6.5 PPG, 1.6 RPG, 1.1 APG (1.56 BCI)
Laurence Bowers 3.51 0.51 3.2 PPG, 2.1 RPG (2.50 BCI)
Justin Safford 3.24 0.34 3.4 PPG, 2.0 RPG (1.91 BCI)
Miguel Paul 2.22 0.19 3.0 PPG, 1.5 APG (2.39 BCI)
Jarrett Sutton 1.47 0.68 1.8 PPG (2.00 BCI)
Steve Moore 0.67 0.14 1.1 PPG, 1.3 RPG (1.00 BCI)
Michael Anderson Jr. 0.45 0.08 0.6 PPG (2.25 BCI)


* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds.  It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted.  The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

  • So before 2008-09, Mizzou had only managed one season of a >2.00 BCI (1989-90).  Not only did Mizzou trounce the previous high with a 2.42 in 2008-09, but 10 of 14 individual players posted >2.00.  When you think about who generally gets assists, you figure that guards are going to pretty easily post a >2.00 BCI, but for DeMarre Carroll, Keith Ramsey and Laurence Bowers (with Justin Safford not far behind at 1.91) to do the same was damn impressive.
  • We're all justifiably optimistic about the future, but clearly the biggest question for the immediate future (i.e. 2009-10) is replacing the all-around games from Carroll and Lyons: we all knew they were good, but seeing their stats next to each other gives you a sense of what they were capable of: 31.2 PPG, 13.3 RPG, 4.2 APG, 2.6 SPG, a near-2.00 BCI.  They transformed themselves into the perfect big men for this system (okay, not perfect...they could have rebounded a bit better), and they will be missed.  Laurence Bowers, Justin Safford, Keith Ramsey, Steve Moore, Keith Dewitt, hopefully Jarrid Famous...you've got your work cut out for you.
  • As well as the bigs filled out the stat sheet, nobody did it better than Jesus Tyrannosaurus Tiller.  Hopefully he'll add a few more points to the ledger in 2009-10.  We'll need it.
  • Thinking about certain moments from the season, it's amazing that Laurence Bowers and Justin Safford both averaged less than four points per game.  They were both tremendous offensive difference makers at certain points in the season, as were Kimmeh English and Marcus Denmon, and to a lesser extent, Keith Ramsey.  Mizzou has every chance in the world of coming back guns blazing in 2009-10, but only if these guys provide much more consistent sparks.
  • What exactly is Miguel Paul's ceiling?  I just can't figure it out.

You know what would be fun?  If we could compare these Missouri players and their stats to Missouri players of yore.

In fact, let's do just that.

Where did Mizzou players rank among Mizzou's best?

Points Per Game

1. Derrick Chievous (Jr, 1986-87) - 24.2
2. Doug Smith (Sr, 1990-91) - 23.6
3. Anthony Peeler (Sr, 1991-92) - 23.4
4. Derrick Chievous (Sr, 1987-88) - 23.4
5. Kareem Rush (So, 2000-01) - 21.1
22. DeMarre Carroll (Sr, 2008-09) - 16.6

BCI

1. Lee Coward (Sr, 1989-90) - 4.96
2. Zaire Taylor (Jr, 2008-09) - 4.23
3. Clarence Gilbert (Fr, 1998-99) - 4.22
4. Chip Walther (So, 1994-95) - 4.20
5. Jason Horton (Sr, 2007-08) - 3.83
6. Matt Lawrence (Sr, 2008-09) - 3.68
7. J.T. Tiller (Jr, 2008-09) - 3.49

Only Lee Coward's ball-handling was more perfect for the Mike Anderson system than Zaire Taylor's.  As you see by the presence of #5 on the list, simply having a good BCI doesn't make for a tremendous player or difference-maker, but it does seem to be a pretty good requisite for success, a nice foundation level.

Points Per Shot

1. Chip Walther (So, 1994-95) - 2.21
2. Moon McCrary (Sr, 1981-82) - 1.81
3. Justin Gage (Jr, 2001-02) - 1.77
4. Greg Church (Sr, 1988-89) - 1.75
5. Dan Bingenheimer (Sr, 1985-86) - 1.72
32. Leo Lyons (Sr, 2008-09) - 1.51

I mentioned a long time ago that this team's biggest Achilles Heel was its lack of natural scoring ability, and while the guy with the most natural ability was tops on this team in Points Per Shot, he really wasn't anywhere close to the top of the Mizzou hierarchy here.

Field Goal %

1. Jeff Warren (So, 1990-91) - 67.6%
2. Greg Church (Sr, 1988-89) - 65.3%
3. Ron Jones (Jr, 1982-83) - 63.8%
4. Moon McCrary (Sr, 1981-82) - 63.5%
5. Greg Church (Jr, 1987-88) - 63.4%
11. Keith Ramsey (Jr, 2008-09) - 61.1%

Just think how high his number could have gone if he hadn't forgotten how to make layups in the post-season!!

Free Throw %

1. Matt Lawrence (Jr, 2007-08) - 91.3%
2. Brian Grawer (Jr, 1999-00) - 90.5%
3. Thomas Gardner (Fr, 2003-04) - 89.7%
4. Travis Ford (Fr, 1989-90) - 89.6%
5. Derek Grimm (Jr, 1995-96) - 88.5%
41. Marcus Denmon (Fr, 2008-09) - 79.5%

I do worry about FT's next year.  This team had a pretty poor overall average despite the fact that their most prolific FT shooter (Leo) was pretty damn good for a big man.  Keith Ramsey is probably the biggest source of worry for 2009-10 in this category, so we'll see what improvement he can make in the offseason.

3-Point FG % (minimum attempts: 20)

1. Justin Safford (So, 2008-09) - 65.0% (on exactly 20 attempts)
2. Lee Coward (So, 1987-88) - 52.7%
3. Derrick Chievous (Sr, 1987-88) - 51.5%
4. Brian Grawer (So, 1998-99) - 49.6%
5. Derek Grimm (So, 1994-95) - 47.5%

The 3-point FG list is very dependent on roles and timing.  Safford only shot when he was wide open, and clearly it worked out well.  But he took less than one 3 per game.  The next two on the list also only shot when wide open--the 3-pointer was a new concept in 1987-88, and Mizzou rarely shot them.  When they did, though, they made them.  Probably the most impressive name on this list is Brian Grawer's '98-'99 season, as he took a lot of 3's and made them at a pretty sick rate.

Shots Per Possession

1. Kareem Rush (So, 2000-01) - 0.31
2. Kareem Rush (Jr, 2001-02) - 0.29
3. Thomas Gardner (Jr, 2005-06) - 0.28
4. Mark Atkins (Jr, 1992-93) - 0.28
5. Doug Smith (Sr, 1990-91) - 0.26
21. Leo Lyons (Sr, 2008-09) - 0.23
22. DeMarre Carroll (Sr, 2008-09) - 0.23

Good god, Kareem Rush took a lot of shots.

Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempts

1. Randy Pulley (Jr, 2003-04) - 1.24
2. Najeeb Echols (So, 2002-03) - 1.14
3. Justin Gage (So, 2000-01) - 1.09
4. Justin Gage (Jr, 2001-02) - 1.03
5. Reggie Smith (Sr, 1993-94) - 0.87
20. Leo Lyons (Sr, 2008-09) - 0.69

Not exactly a murderer's row atop this list.

3-Point Attempts Per Possession

1. Mark Atkins (Sr, 1993-94) - 0.18
2. Mark Atkins (Jr, 1993-94) - 0.16
3. Matt Lawrence (Jr, 2007-08) - 0.15
4. Thomas Gardner (Jr, 2005-06) - 0.15
5. Clarence Gilbert (Jr, 2000-01) - 0.15
7. Matt Lawrence (Sr, 2008-09) - 0.14
20. Kim English (Fr, 2008-09) - 0.11

Two thoughts here: a) god, I loved Mark Atkins, and b) clearly Goose took a lot of 3's, but I really didn't think he took them at this high a rate.  It just seemed like Clarence and Gardner took a lot more.

Offensive Rebound % (Since 1996-97)

1. Kevin Young (Sr, 2005-06) - 16.5%
2. Linas Kleiza (Fr, 2003-04) - 15.9%
3. Kevin Young (Jr, 2004-05) - 15.0%
4. Arthur Johnson (Fr, 2000-01) - 14.7%
5. Vaidatos Volkus (Jr, 2006-07) - 14.0%
29. Laurence Bowers (Fr, 2008-09) - 10.5%

This team's offensive rebounding % might improve next simply by their big men not taking as many 17-footers (then again, with Bowers and Safford on the team, maybe not).  Either way, Mizzou clearly didn't have a banger who never strayed about five feet from the basket, and they won't next year either.

Defensive Rebound % (Since 1996-97)

1. Linas Kleiza (Fr, 2003-04) - 25.3%
2. Kalen Grimes (Jr, 2006-07) - 24.2%
3. Monte Hardge (Jr, 1997-98) - 24.0%
4. Laurence Bowers (Fr, 2008-09) - 21.9%
5. Albert White (Jr, 1998-99) - 21.7%

I'll say this: with more minutes, Bowers might not keep up this rate, but the dude knows how to rebound, especially in this system.  He controls the ball with one hand and is looking to make a quick outlet pass as soon as he lands (or before).  I love his scoring and athletic potential, but his rebounding might come in just as handy.

Assists Per Possession

1. Stefhon Hannah (Sr, 2007-08) - 0.10
2. Wesley Stokes (So, 2001-02) - 0.10
3. Lynn Hardy (Sr, 1987-88) - 0.10
4. Anthony Peeler (So, 1989-90) - 0.09
5. Jason Horton (So, 2005-06) - 0.09
13. J.T. Tiller (Jr, 2008-09) - 0.08

It really is a shame that Stefhon Hannah had zero leadership/judgment bones in his body because the dude was perfect for the Mike Anderson system.  Steals, assists, the 3-ball...he had a lot to offer.  He just didn't think very well, and I'm pretty sure his perimeter defense was horrendous.  Just saying...some pluses with the minuses.

Steals Per Possession

1. Reggie Smith (Fr, 1990-91) - 0.052
2. Jed Frost (Fr, 1990-91) - 0.051
3. Wesley Stokes (So, 2001-02) - 0.048
4. Clarence Gilbert (Fr, 1998-99) - 0.046
5. Lamont Frazier (Fr, 1990-91) - 0.045
13. J.T. Tiller (Jr, 2008-09) - 0.040

I really would have thought Tiller was in the top five here.

Blocks Per Possession

1. Chris Heller (Sr, 1993-94) - 0.054
2. Sammy Haley (Jr, 1994-95) - 0.048
3. Arthur Johnson (Fr, 2000-01) - 0.046
4. Arthur Johnson (So, 2001-02) - 0.039
5. Kalen Grimes (Jr, 2006-07) - 0.038
11. Laurence Bowers (Fr, 2008-09) - 0.034
13. Keith Ramsey (Jr, 2008-09) - 0.033

Don't know about offense, but Bowers and Ramsey getting more minutes next year should make Mizzou a pretty damn fine shot-blocking team.

Adjusted Game Score (i.e. overall contribution) Per Possession

1. Derrick Chievous (Jr, 1986-87) - 0.394
2. Derrick Chievous (Sr, 1987-88) - 0.364
3. Leo Lyons (Jr, 2007-08!) - 0.363
4. Kareem Rush (So, 2000-01) - 0.361
5. DeMarre Carroll (Sr, 2008-09) - 0.344
12. Leo Lyons (Sr, 2008-09) - 0.322

I'm pretty sure I underrated DeMarre Carroll's impact every day of the season.  But aside from last year's Leo Lyons, the top ten of this list is pretty damn prestigious, and JYD was right in the middle of it.  Sure, he hustled and pressed and chased down loose balls, but...he filled up the stat sheet as well.

Comps

So now it's time to have some fun.  This really has no bearing on anything relevant, but basically I took each 2008-09 player's per-possession stats, along with some general size, class (Fr, So, Jr, Sr) and playing time information and ran some correlations.  Below are the players whose stats were most closely correlated to the stats of each player on the roster.

DeMarre Carroll

1. Arthur Johnson (Sr, 2003-04)
2. Kareem Rush (Fr, 1999-00)
3. Linas Kleiza (So, 2004-05)
4. Dan Bingenheimer (Sr, 1985-86)
5. Stefhon Hannah (Sr, 2007-08)

A center, a small forward, a power forward, a scrappy role-player, and a point guard.  Makes perfect sense, really.  JYD was unclassifiable.

Zaire Taylor

1. Lamont Frazier (Jr, 1992-93)
2. Prince Bridges (So, 1981-82)
3. Jeff Hafer (So, 1997-98)
4. Travis Ford (Fr, 1989-90)
5. Wesley Stokes (So, 2001-02)

Mr. Coffee: much more classifiable.  A hustling guard with good ball control skills and not a high number of shots is a lot easier to classify than somebody like JYD or...

J.T. Tiller

1. Lamont Frazier (Jr, 1992-93)
2. Jeff Warren (Sr, 1992-93)
3. Keyon Dooling (Fr, 1998-99)
4. Matt Lawrence (Jr, 2007-08)
5. Jason Sutherland (So, 1994-95)

...I'll say this much: before I added size to the list of correlation categories, Tiller's list was awesome.  Greg Cavener (6'10 F/C from 1981-82), Doug Smith as a freshman, Doug Smith as a sophomore, Lee Coward as a sophomore (late-'80s point guard), and Wesley Stokes.  Once I put size into the mix, things regulated a bit, and JYD maintained his crown in the 'hardest to classify' contest.

Leo Lyons

1. Mark Atkins (Jr, 1992-93)
2. John Woods (Sr, 1998-99)
3. Leo Lyons (Jr, 2007-08)
4. DeMarre Carroll (Jr, 2007-08)
5. Linas Kleiza (Fr, 2003-04)

Three power-forwards and two long-rang shooting guards.  Okay.  I'm thinking this probably has something to do with the fact that Leo really wasn't much of a rebounder for his size.

Matt Lawrence

1. Mark Atkins (Sr, 1993-94)
2. Marshall Brown (Jr, 2006-07)
3. Greg Leonard (Sr, 1988-89)
4. Greg Church (Jr, 1987-88)
5. J.T. Tiller (So, 2007-08)

Atkins in the #1 spot makes perfect sense, but the rest of the list is baffling.  I do enjoy the presence of two white guys, though.

Marcus Denmon

1. Travon Bryant (So, 2001-02)
2. Johnnie Parker (Jr, 1999-00)
3. Leo Lyons (So, 2006-07)
4. Rickey Paulding (Fr, 2000-01)
5. Blake Wortham (So, 1983-84)

The #4 spot on this list makes the most sense to me, but Denmon rebounded like a much taller player, and that probably has something to do with the comps here.  Hopefully he's very similar to Freshman Rickey Paulding, though--needless to say, Rickey started to figure out the whole "scoring" thing later in his career.  Denmon might be as good a defender as Paulding, too.  Not as athletic, but he's got a wide base of skills.

Kim English

1. Marshall Brown (Fr, 2004-05)
2. J.T. Tiller (Fr, 2006-07)
3. Tate Decker (Fr, 1996-97)
4. Michael Walker (Jr, 1981-82)
5. Darryl Butterfield (Jr, 2006-07)

Yeah, I got nothing.  Marshall Brown + JT Tiller, I can see.  But...the Flying Aardvark at #3?  Darryl Butterfield at #5?  And NONE of these guys shot nearly as well from 3-point range as Kimmeh did.  Whatever.  It's interesting.

Keith Ramsey

1. John McIntyre (So, 1987-88)
2. Jamal Coleman (So, 1989-90)
3. Nathan Buntin (Jr, 1988-89)
4. Marcus Watkins (Jr, 2005-06)
5. Justin Gage (Fr, 1999-00)

A hustle guy with a little beef.  Of all the comps, this one might make the most sense.  It's a little worrisome that three of the five guys here were actually younger than Ramsey is--doesn't suggest much of his upside.  Then again, I probably shouldn't read much into this--just a fun exercise.

Miguel Paul

1. Ted Mimlitz (Fr, 1983-84)
2. Jeff Warren (Fr, 1989-90)
3. Travon Bryant (Fr, 2000-01)
4. Bill Roundtree (So, 1983-84)
5. Justin Gage (Fr, 1999-00)

Uhh...yeah.  Nothing.

Justin Safford

1. Marlo Finner (Jr, 1993-94)
2. Josh Kroenke (Fr, 1999-00)
3. Justin Safford (Fr, 2007-08)
4. John McIntyre (Jr, 1988-89)
5. Jed Frost (Fr, 1990-91)

LOVE the Marlo Finner comparison here...am just wishing Travon Bryant had made the list too.  Saffy is a pretty strong combination of those two.  And I swear "First letter of first name" wasn't one of the correlation categories, no matter what this list suggests.

Laurence Bowers

1. Derek Grimm (Fr, 1993-94)
2. Derrick Johnson (Fr, 1992-93)
3. Desmond Ferguson (Fr, 1995-96)
4. Ron Jones (So, 1981-82)
5. Monte Hardge (So, 1995-96)

Derek Grimm, Monte Hardge, and three guys who (I believe) ended up transferring.  Before I put experience into the correlations list, his top comps were Doug Smith and Kareem Rush.  I liked that a lot better.  Nobody did more with fewer minutes than Party Starter Bowers.

Michael Anderson Jr.

1. Steve Musser (Jr, 1984-85)
2. Barry Laurie (Sr, 1982-83)
3. Chip Walther (Jr, 1995-96)
4. Barry Laurie (So, 1980-81)
5. Tony McDuffie (So, 1983-84)

Poor-shooting, scrappy walk-on.  Sounds about right.  Pretty accurate profile here.

Steve Moore

1. Scott Combs (Fr, 1994-95)
2. Chip Walther (Fr, 1993-94)
3. Matt Rowan (Fr, 1998-99)
4. Mike Potthoff (Fr, 1984-85)
5. Jamal Coleman (Fr, 1988-89)

A walk-on (Walther), three guys who didn't stick around for four years, and a decent post man (Coleman).  Not tremendously encouraging.

Jarrett Sutton

1. John Burns (So, 1990-91)
2. Jim Horton (Fr, 1988-89)
3. Nick Berardini (Jr, 2007-08)
4. Bradd Sutton (Jr, 1988-89)
5. John Burns (Sr, 1992-93)

Hot-shooting walk-on.  Sounds about right.

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