Big 12 baseball standings, to date:
1. Texas 15-8-1 (vs. Texas A&M)
2. Kansas State 12-7-1 (vs. Texas Tech, vs. Kansas)
3. Texas A&M 13-8 (@Texas, @Oklahoma)
4. Missouri 14-10 (vs. Kansas)
5. Oklahoma 12-9 (vs. Oklahoma State in Tula/Oklahoma City, vs. Texas A&M)
6. Kansas 12-9 (@Missouri, @Kansas State)
7. Baylor 10-13 (vs. Nebraska)
8. Texas Tech 9-12 (@Kansas State, vs. Oklahoma State)
9. Oklahoma State 6-13 (@Oklahoma, @Texas Tech)
10. Nebraska 5-19 (@Baylor)
Let's be generous and say Missouri takes two of three from kU this weekend and finishes at 16-11 in Big 12 play.
A&M has a brutal schedule in these final two weeks and would have to go 4-2 to finish higher than Missouri (assuming the tiebreaker goes to MU, as A&M lost two of three in Columbia earlier in the year). OU struggled to salvage a game against kU in a home series last weekend, but if A&M goes 1-2 in Austin they would have to sweep in Norman to finish third in conference.
On the flip side, if OU goes 4-2 down the stretch, they'll finish with the same record but ahead of Missouri by virtue of a tiebreaker. OSU has only won one Big 12 series this year (which was against Missouri), so let's say OU takes two of three. If OU then takes two of three from A&M, Missouri drops to fourth—but not lower. Again, assuming two wins against kU (which is NOT guaranteed—kU jumped back into the Baseball America top 25 this week, coming in at No. 23), even if kU sweeps Kansas State, they couldn't leapfrog Missouri.
And that brings me to this: if Missouri takes the series from kU and then kU sweeps K-State in Manhattan after K-State takes 2/3 from Texas Tech (unlikely that kU sweeps K-State on the road and that K-State doesn't sweep Tech), Missouri could finish second if OU goes 3-3 in their last six games.
While we're on the optimism bandwagon, let's say Missouri sweeps kU and goes to 17-10 in conference. Texas A&M then sweeps Texas and gets swept by OU, putting them at 16-11 in conference. OU somehow drops two of three to OSU before sweeping Tech, putting them 16-11 in conference. K-State takes two of three from Tech and falls flat on their face against kU and gets swept there to finish 14-11-1. And, as a result...Missouri would win the Big 12.
[I feel like that was like The Boy's path to the championship thing from those NCAA tournament previews.]
If we're looking on the negative side, let's say kU takes two of three this weekend to move to 14-10. Missouri would then finish at 15-12 in conference and would have to pray for a K-State sweep to finish above kU in the Big 12 standings. Also, if OU went just 3-3 in their final six, they would still hold the tiebreaker. The same goes for A&M, and likely, if OU is to go 3-3 they'll take 2/3 from OSU and lose 2/3 to A&M. All this would drop Missouri down to sixth in conference (assuming kU steals one from K-State), the lowest spot to which MU could fall.
The most likely scenario I see is OU switching places with A&M by taking two of three from OSU and A&M, keeping Missouri in fourth with kU staying in sixth. Still, the possibility exists for Missouri to finish anywhere from first to sixth, so these last two weeks are going to be very interesting.
Okay, so here's how it goes:
Missouri finishes first if: MU sweeps KU, Texas goes 1-2, K-State goes 3-3*, and OU goes 4-2 (which means A&M goes 4-2) OR MU takes 2/3 from KU, Texas goes 0-3, K-State goes 2-4, OU goes 3-3, and A&M goes 3-3
Missouri finishes second if: MU sweeps KU, Texas goes 2-1, K-State goes 3-3*, OU goes 4-2, A&M goes 4-2 OR MU takes 2/3 from kU, K-State goes 2-4*, OU goes 3-3, and A&M goes 3-3 (note: if MU loses 2/3 from kU, it would require K-State to go 1-5 and thus mean that kU could go no less than 4-2, meaning they would leapfrog Missouri in the standings)
Missouri finishes third if: MU sweeps KU, Texas goes 2-1, K-State goes 5-1, OU goes 4-2 OR MU takes 2/3 from KU and two of the four happen: Texas goes 0-3, OU goes 3-3, A&M goes 3-3, K-State goes 2-4* OR MU takes 1/3 from KU and OU goes 2-4, A&M goes 2-4, and KU goes 2-4
Missouri finishes fourth if: MU sweeps KU, Texas goes 2-1, K-State goes 5-1* and OU goes 6-0 OR MU takes 2/3 from KU, Texas goes 1-2, K-State goes 4-2*, and either OU or A&M goes 5-1 OR MU takes 2/3 from KU and three of the four happen: Texas goes 0-3, OU goes 3-3, A&M goes 3-3, K-State goes 2-4* OR MU takes 1/3 from KU and one of the four happens: OU goes 2-4, A&M goes 2-4, KU goes 2-4 OR MU goes 0/3 against KU and OU goes 1-5 and A&M goes 1-5
Missouri finishes fifth if: MU takes 1/3 from KU, and three of the four happen: K-State goes 3-3, OU goes 3-3, A&M goes 3-3, and KU goes 3-3 OR MU gets swept by KU and two of the three happen: K-State goes 2-4, OU goes 2-4, A&M goes 2-4
Missouri finishes sixth if: MU takes 1/3 from KU, K-State goes 3-3, OU goes 3-3, A&M goes 3-3, and KU goes 3-3 OR MU gets swept and K-State goes 2-4, OU goes 2-4 and A&M goes 2-4
*I'm not entirely sure how K-State's winning percentage will play out with the tie and the cancelled game against OSU. To be honest, I'm in class and really don't want to delve into all that math, so there's a chance that K-State might require one less win for Missouri.
Also, another caveat: my brain hurts right now and I very well may have missed something in one of these scenarios. Regardless, it's interesting that MU can finish anywhere from first to sixth—so these next two weeks will be very interesting