Illinois: 2009 Projections

by Bill C. on Jun 12, 2009 9:00 AM CDT in Mizzou Football 2009

Old helmets are always cooler.

So you've read the links, you've read about the offense, you've read about the defense...time to tell us what you think about how Illinois will fare in 2009. In comments, leave your game-to-game and overall record predictions.

As for me, taking off of some of the projections made by my Football Outsiders counterpart, Brian Fremeau, I have taken my first stab at a projections system for 2009. Below are the predicted results, and margin of victory/defeat, for each Illinois game of 2009:

Date	Opponent	Proj. W/L	Margin	Record	Conf. Rec.
9/5	vs Missouri	L	-1.2	0-1
9/12	Illinois State	W	+38.8	1-1
9/26	at Ohio State	L	-19.4	1-2	0-1
10/3	Penn State	L	-2.3	1-3	0-2
10/10	Michigan State	W	+1.3	2-3	1-2
10/17	at Indiana	W	+2.0	3-3	2-2
10/24	at Purdue	W	+1.3	4-3	3-2
10/31	Michigan	W	+3.0	5-3	4-2
11/7	at Minnesota	L	-4.0	5-4	4-3
11/14	Northwestern	W	+8.0	6-4	5-3
11/27	at Cincinnati	L	-4.0	6-5
12/5	Fresno State	W	+5.0	7-5

As you see, this season could shake down a lot of different ways, depending on whether Illinois is a little better or a little worse than projected. Nine games are projected within a touchdown, and three (Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota) are swung by the application of a 4-point home field advantage to all games. If I bump home-field up to seven points or so, they beat Penn State and lose to Purdue and Indiana. Bump it down to two points, and they lose to Michigan State. I'm still tinkering, but these projections look pretty good for now.

Now it's your turn. Take to the comments and tell me why these projections are a load of crap.

Poll

7-5? Sound about right?

You're giving them too much credit. 4-8 or 5-7 is much more likely.

9 votes

Yeah, 6-6 to 8-4 sounds about right.

56 votes

You're selling them short. 9-3 or 10-2 (or better) for them.

11 votes

76 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

As a high school teacher in Illinois now

I had the chance to watch a few Illini recruits play this past season during the high school playoffs. Some of these kids, especially Hawthorne (this kid is seriously amazing), are going to make an immediate impact. Good thing for the Tigers is that this should start to happen after the first game of the season. Either way, Illinois should make a little more noise than a 7 win season (in my opinion). 8-8 would be my best guess, but I could seriously see them reeling off 8 consecutive wins to close out the regular season with the way their schedule plays out after that tough Penn State game (even that game should be close given Illinois’ propensity to play big-time teams close in Champaign). As long as their season begins 0-1, I don’t honestly give a damn what they do, though.

by murphymj on Jun 12, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions

Their October stretch is vital...

…if they’re just a bit better than expected, they could go 5-0. A hair worse, and they could be 1-4 or 0-5. And I LOVED Hawthorne’s film when we were recruiting him…he needs to put on about 15-20 pounds, but he’s electric.

Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by Bill C. on Jun 12, 2009 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions

my predictions from the roundtable comments...

i’m looking forward to watching spoonman squeeze the juice again this year

9/5: vs Missouri- L
9/12: Illinois State- W
9/26: @ Ohio State- L
10/3: Penn State- L
10/10: Michigan State- L
10/17: @ Indiana- W
10/24: @ Purdue- L
10/31: Michigan- W
11/7: @ Minnesota- L
11/14: Northwestern- W
11/27: @ Cincinnati- L
12/5: Fresno State- W

5-7, no bowl, zook’s seat getting warm

juice, mcnabb, andre ware, pam ward and lou holtz get their own reality show on lifetime

by Wooderson on Jun 12, 2009 10:40 AM CDT reply actions

gonna just go with my gut + all the reading I've done due to the amazing stats and links provided here (thanks RMN)

9/5: vs Missouri- L
9/12: Illinois State- W
9/26: @ Ohio State- L
10/3: Penn State- L
10/10: Michigan State- W
10/17: @ Indiana- W
10/24: @ Purdue- L
10/31: Michigan- W
11/7: @ Minnesota- L
11/14: Northwestern- L
11/27: @ Cincinnati- W
12/5: Fresno State- W

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jun 12, 2009 12:48 PM CDT reply actions