Colorado: 2009 Projections

All good things must pass, so we must accept that Colorado Week is now behind us.  Sad, I know.  So it's time to make our projections/predictions!

First, here's Colorado Week in review:

2009 BTBS Projections

Date Opponent Proj. W/L Margin Record Conf. Rec.
9/6 Colorado State W +12.5 1-0
9/11 at Toledo L -2.2 1-1
9/19 Wyoming W +15.3 2-1
10/1 at West Virginia L -12.8 2-2
10/10 at Texas L -29.7 2-3 0-1
10/17 Kansas L -10.2 2-4 0-2
10/24 at Kansas State L -8.9 2-5 0-3
10/31 Missouri L -4.4 2-6 0-4
11/7 Texas A&M L -2.8 2-7 0-5
11/14 at Iowa State L -1.8 2-8 0-6
11/19 at Oklahoma State L -17.8 2-9 0-7
11/27 Nebraska L -5.9 2-10 0-8

I warned you the other day that these were pretty cruel projections...

Now, I'm very, very much not on the CU bandwagon, and even I will admit that these projections are a bit harsh, but that's what they are--projections.  You take last year's S&P+ rankings, adjust based on a series of indicators like returning starters, 5-year history (it matters more than you think), etc., spit out new projected rankings, and start your predictions.  There will be both good and bad outliers (for instance, Rutgers' projected record: 12-0), but more often than not the projections will be close to accurate.  CU's is a nominee for least likely to be accurate.

That said...IF Colorado loses to Toledo (or CSU, for that matter), 2-10 very much enters the realm of possibility.  Colorado has a series of road games against slightly lesser teams and a series of home games against slightly better teams.  That means if they're a bit worse than expected or lay an egg or two, the landslide could begin.  But if they're a hair better than expected, good enough to knock off Nebraska or Missouri, for instance, then they really could compete for the North title.  Could go either way based on the large series of if's surrounding this team:

  • IF...Cody Hawkins can mature and become a semi-competent QB...
  • IF...Darrell Scott stays healthy and begins to show five-star form...
  • IF...a wide receiver, most likely Markques Simas, emerges as a downfield threat...
  • IF...the offensive line begins to gel after getting massacred by youth and injury last year...
  • IF...the defensive line finds a couple of weapons amid a massive lack of experience...
  • IF...somebody replaces Brad Jones as a true, play-making linebacker...
  • IF...the sophomore starting safeties hold their own...
  • IF...the kicking game improves rather drastically...
  • IF...a suitable replacement for Josh Smith is found in the return game...
  • IF...the new offensive coordinator is better able to press the right buttons...

IF a majority of those things happen, then CU could be pretty good.  But sweet jesus, that's a longer "If" list than even Iowa State has!  It's asking a lot for CU to be ready to compete in 2009--like Mizzou, they should be using 2009 to build for 2010, when offensive experience begins to really add up.

Of course, if they go 2-10, they'll be starting 2010 with a brand spanking new head coach.  I hear this guy is still looking for a job...

Starting Monday: Baylor Week!  Fire up the Hot Tub!

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