Kansas State: 2009 Projections

With Kansas State Week wrapping up, it looks like the Unholy Alliance goes on hiatus for a while...oh who am I kidding, the Unholy Alliance never goes on hiatus.

Sports Videos, News, Blogs
I cannot tell you how much I don't miss this guy.

I'm not going to lie: K-State's BTBS projections are potentially the most surprising of anybody's (well...then again, CU's 2-10 projection was rather surprising too). Here's a reminder of how the projections are determined: I start with last year's Offensive and Defensive S&P+, I apply percentage increases or decreases based on the projections of my FO colleague Brian Fremeau, I boil things down to a relative point value, and I project the games.  It's still very much in an inexact stage because I clearly don't know if certain factors (returning starters, 5-year history, etc.) will affect my S&P+ ratings in the same way as Fremeau's FEI numbers, but it's a start.  And it should be, at the very least, at least a hint that Colorado might be worse than expected and K-State better.

Before we get to the BTBS projections, here's K-State Week in review:

2009 BTBS Projections

Date Opponent Proj. W/L Margin Record Conf. Rec.
9/5 UMass W +22.6 1-0
9/12 at UL-Lafayette W +6.5 2-0
9/19 at UCLA L -9.9 2-1
9/26 Tennessee Tech W +36.5 3-1
10/3 vs Iowa State W +7.1 4-1 1-0
10/10 at Texas Tech L -9.8 4-2 1-1
10/17 Texas A&M W +2.1 5-2 2-1
10/24 Colorado W +8.9 6-2 3-1
10/31 at Oklahoma L -22.6 6-3 3-2
11/7 Kansas L -5.4 6-4 3-3
11/14 Missouri W +0.5 7-4 4-3
11/21 at Nebraska L -9.0 7-5 4-4

So there you go.  With two 1-AA games, a probably winnable game at UL-Lafayette, and a VERY favorable conference home slate, K-State could go 3-1 at home in conference and probably get to six wins just like that.  Of course, six wins won't get them bowling because of the two 1-AA FCS teams, but seven will, and potentially tight rivalry games against Kansas and Missouri could get them there.

One thing I like to do is add or subtract 6-7 points to/from the projection to see what the impact is if a team is better or worse than expected.  If KSU is better than expected, it really only brings one more win into the mix--Kansas.  If they're worse than the numbers project, they could lose to ULL, ATM, Missouri, and maybe Iowa State.  So we're looking at a range of 3-9 to 8-4 for 2009.  I'd say 6-6 is more likely than 7-5, but there's still a very clear path to a .500 record for Bill Snyder this year despite a glaring lack of depth at the skill positions, and that has to excite K-State fans at least a little bit.  Even if the team is only marginally improved, there is a defined path to bowl eligibility.  Of course, lose to UL-Lafayette, and this projection gets altered just a wee bit.

Starting Monday: Iowa State Week!

Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Rock M Nation

You must be a member of Rock M Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Rock M Nation. You should read them.

Join Rock M Nation

You must be a member of Rock M Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Rock M Nation. You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.