BTBS Week 2 Picks!

Not that anybody cares, but I came across an interesting conundrum this week.  Being that I've never attempted week-to-week "+" numbers before (previously I just tried to keep up with BCS play-by-plays during the season, then cranked out all the others in the offseason and came up with the "Final" rankings, but now I've got somebody helping me with the entry and can keep up better, week-to-week), I'm very much tinkering with the best way to phase out the 2009 projections with real 2009 data.  Clearly I can't just use Week One "+" numbers because, well, if everybody's only played one game, then everybody's "+" rating will be 100.0.  Doesn't really help me.  So I came up with two ways to do my Week Two projections, and obviously I have no idea which way is better.  The two methods disagree on quite a few spreads this week, so what I've done here is go with one method and add an asterisk to the games which the other method picked differently.  I'll commit to these picks but keep my eye on the other method to see which one does better this week.

Week One results: 23-17 (4-4 in Big 12 games).  The games I mentioned as BTBS locks went just 3-2.  As I mentioned yesterday, the BTBS picks started out 18-8 halfway through Saturday, and I was already planning the "Time to make some cash!!!!1!!!" Vegas trip in my head.  Then I went 3-9 on late-Saturday and Sunday before rallying to nail both Monday games and finish six games over .500.  Certainly not terrible, but not as good as things were looking mid-Saturday.

(In other words, I pulled a Pinkel.  As I've mentioned before, Pinkel's biggest problem before 2007 was that he would take a team with low expectations, get them to show enough to over-build expectations, then when they regressed to the mean the season would end up disappointing, even though they finished higher than they were predicted to finish before the season started.  Kind of like if Mizzou ends up going 8-4 this season.  We'd have all taken 8-4 before the season started, but now that we've seen what they're capable of, 8-4 will almost seem like a letdown.  But I digress.  Majorly.)

Big 12 picks here.  All other games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Friday, 9/11
8:00pm
Colorado at Toledo
Colorado by 0.4
Colorado -4
Toledo
Saturday, 9/12
11:05am Iowa at Iowa State
Iowa by 15.0
Iowa -6.5
Iowa

1:00pm
Arkansas State at Nebraska
Nebraska by 26.2
Nebraska -22.5
Nebraska*

2:30pm
Houston at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State by 16.2
OSU -15
OSU*


Texas at Wyoming
Texas by 22.0
Texas -33.5
WYOMING

6:00pm
Bowling Green at Missouri
Missouri by 19.1
Missouri -19.5
BGSU*


Idaho State at Oklahoma
Oklahoma by 53.7
N/A



Kansas State at UL-Lafayette
KSU by 2.1
KSU -7
ULL


Rice at Texas Tech
Tech by 14.1
Tech -28
RICE

6:30pm
Kansas at UTEP
Kansas by 14.6
Kansas -13
Kansas


I have no idea why the Texas projection is that close--I would think that Texas would win by 40--but as I've stated before, when I publicly disagree with the projections, they make me look silly, so I'll go with it.  Otherwise these look about right.  If Tech discovers a running game, they should have no trouble with Rice, but they were quite unimpressive last week, so their numbers went down a bit.  And clearly there's no "Iowa State really really gets up to play Iowa" part to the equation, so Iowa still gets the nod there.  If the Hawkeyes continue to perform like they did last week, then their numbers will fall pretty quickly, but since projections are still part of the equation, they get the benefit of the doubt.

Oh yeah, and Colorado and K-State better not mess around.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thursday, 9/10 6:30pm Clemson at Georgia Tech Tech by 0.7 Tech -5 Clemson
Friday, 9/11 8:00pm Colorado at Toledo Colorado by 0.4 Colorado -4 Toledo
Saturday, 9/12 11:00am Central Michigan at Michigan State MSU by 13.8 MSU -14.5 CMU*
Duke at Army Army by 4.4 Army -1 Army
Eastern Michigan at Northwestern NW'ern by 17.1 NW'ern -20 EMU*
Fresno State at Wisconsin Wiscy by 6.8 Wiscy -9 Fresno State
North Carolina at Connecticut UConn by 11.2 UConn +4 UCONN
Pittsburgh at Buffalo Pittsburgh by 12.0 Pittsburgh -10.5 Pittsburgh
Stanford at Wake Forest Wake by 5.3 Wake -3 Wake*
Syracuse at Penn State PSU by 26.7 PSU -28.5 'Cuse*
Western Michigan at Indiana Indiana by 6.8 Indiana -1 Indiana
11:05am Iowa at Iowa State Iowa by 15.0 Iowa -5 Iowa
11:21am Troy at Florida Florida by 29.7 Florida -36 Troy*
12:30pm Marshall at Virginia Tech VT by 12.5 VT -22.5 Marshall
1:00pm Arkansas State at Nebraska Nebraska by 26.2 Nebraska -22.5 Nebraska*
Morgan State at Akron Akron by 18.6 N/A
Kent State at Boston College BC by 23.3 BC -20.5 BC
2:30pm BYU at Tulane BYU by 16.3 BYU -17.5 Tulane
East Carolina at West Virginia WVU by 8.6 WVU -6.5 WVU
Howard at Rutgers Rutgers by 36.4 N/A
Houston at Oklahoma State OSU by 16.2 OSU -15 OSU*
Idaho at Washington Washington by 11.2 Washington -21 Idaho
Louisiana Tech at Navy Navy by 8.1 Navy -7.5 Navy
Notre Dame at Michigan Michigan by 5.2 Michigan +3 Michigan
TCU at Virginia TCU by 10.6 TCU -11 Virginia
Texas at Wyoming Texas by 22.0 Texas -33.5 WYOMING
3:00pm SMU at UAB UAB by 3.5 UAB -12.5 SMU
UCLA at Tennessee Tennessee by 8.0 Tennessee -10 UCLA*
4:00pm Weber State at Colorado State CSU by 8.0 (???) N/A
4:30pm Eastern Washington at California Cal by 26.3 N/A
5:00pm James Madison at Maryland Maryland by 20.8 N/A
Jacksonville State at Florida State FSU by 31.5 N/A
Murray State at N.C. State NC State by 30.1 N/A
6:00pm Air Force at Minnesota Minnesota by 11.8 Minnesota -3.5 Minnesota
Bowling Green at Missouri Missouri by 19.1 Missouri -19.5 BGSU*
Central Florida at Southern Miss USM by 17.5 USM -15 USM
New Hampshire at Ball State BSU by 6.1 N/A
Illinois State at Illinois Illinois by 36.1 N/A
Idaho State at Oklahoma Oklahoma by 53.7 N/A
Texas Southern at UL-Monroe ULM by 26.4 N/A
Florida International at Alabama 'Bama by 29.2 'Bama -33.5 FIU
Hawaii at Washington State Hawaii by 2.8 Hawaii -2 Hawaii
Kansas State at UL-Lafayette KSU by 2.1 KSU -7 ULL
Memphis at Middle Tennessee MTSU by 2.8 MTSU -2 MTSU
Mississippi State at Auburn Auburn by 17.2 Auburn -14 Auburn
Ohio at North Texas Ohio by 5.2 Ohio -3 Ohio*
Rice at Texas Tech Tech by 14.1 Tech -28 RICE
South Carolina at Georgia Georgia by 20.5 Georgia -7 GEORGIA
Vanderbilt at LSU LSU by 22.5 LSU by 14.5 LSU
Western Illinois at Northern Illinois NIU by 18.3 N/A
SEMO at Cincinnati Cincinnati by 42.8 N/A
Kansas at UTEP Kansas by 14.6 Kansas -13 Kansas
South Florida at Western Kentucky USF by 19.6 USF -24.5
WKU
Prairie View A&M at New Mexico St. NMSU by 8.3 N/A
Miami-OH at Boise State Boise by 33.6 Boise -37 Miami-OH*
Tulsa at New Mexico Tulsa by 12.1 Tulsa -17.5 UNM*
USC at Ohio State Ohio State by 2.4 Ohio State +6.5
Ohio State
Southern Utah at San Diego State SDSU by 19.6 N/A
Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona by 26.1 N/A
Purdue at Oregon Oregon by 17.2 Oregon -12 Oregon*
Utah at San Jose State Utah by 12.4 Utah -13.5 SJSU*
Oregon State at UNLV OSU by 16.0 OSU -7 OSU


So your supposed locks this week are UConn, Wyoming, Rice and Georgia.  I'm queasy about both Wyoming and Rice, but we'll see.  The projections really didn't like UNC all that much, which explains the UConn pick, and really, it's the same with UGa.  The projections really liked the Bulldogs, so despite their iffy offensive performance in Stillwater, they get the benefit of the doubt here despite the fact that South Carolina's defense is pretty stout.

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