BTBS Week 3 Picks!

Week Two results: I should quit now--I went 30-14 last week, 7-2 in the Big 12.  Keep that up for an entire season (yeah, right), and I'll be a millionaire pretty quickly!

Category Last Week Season
All Games 30-14 (68.2%) 53-31 (63.1%)
Big 12 7-2 (77.8%) 11-6 (64.7%)
"LOCKS" 2-2 (50.0%) 5-4 (55.6%)


Locks (defined as any game where the spread and my projections differ by more than about 12.5 points or so) are doing worse than everything else.  Makes total sense.  Anyway, is this a weekend for another major surge, or is it "regression to the mean" time?  Some of the picks make little sense to me, so I'm thinking the numbers have gotten cocky and are in for a dose of reality this week...of course, every time I disagree with the numbers, they make me look stupid.  And yes, I am referring to the numbers as their own person now.

First, the Big 12 games.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Sat., 9/19 11:00am Duke at Kansas Kansas by 21.3 Kansas -23.5 Duke
1:00pm Furman at Missouri Missouri by 31.2 N/A
2:30pm Wyoming at Colorado Colorado by 7.6 Colorado -7 Colorado
Tulsa at Oklahoma OU by 15.3 OU -18 Tulsa
Nebraska at Virginia Tech Nebraska by 0.4 VT -5 Nebraska
4:00pm Connecticut at Baylor UConn by 10.6 Baylor -10.5 UCONN
6:00pm Rice at Oklahoma State OSU by 16.6 OSU -32.5 RICE
Utah State at Texas A&M ATM by 2.8 (???) ATM -19.5 USU
Iowa State at Kent State Kent by 5.5 ISU -3 Kent
7:00pm Texas Tech at Texas Texas by 18.1 Texas -17.5 Texas
9:15pm Kansas State at UCLA UCLA by 12.9 UCLA -12.5 UCLA
  • Three Big 12 opponents are considered "locks" this week.  UConn has been, so far, a major outlier in terms of how the numbers view them and how Vegas does.  This has been the biggest difference thus far (basically 21 points between the spread and projections), but I guess it does bear mentioning that I'm 2-0 picking UConn ATS so far.
  • Meanwhile, I'm not totally sure I can explain the other two "locks."  Picking Rice to cover isn't a surprise since, in most of the blowout spreads, the numbers are picking the underdog, but I'd have still thought OSU would be projected by more than 16.6.  And I have NO idea why USU is so close to ATM.  I knew the numbers kind of liked USU (they're projected to go 5-7 right now, a nice improvement over last year), but 2.8 points?  Really?
  • Some pretty good spreads on the other game--Duke/KU, CU/Wyoming, Texas/Tech, and KSU/UCLA are all projected very close to the spread.  Nebraska is projected to win outright against a 5-point favorite, while the numbers just do not respect Iowa State right now.

All games after the jump.  And yes, I do have proof that I picked Miami last night.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs., 9/17 6:00pm Georgia Tech at Miami-FL Miami by 6.9 Miami -4.5 Miami (proof here)
Fri., 9/18 8:00pm Boise State at Fresno State Boise by 9.7 Boise -7.5 Boise
Sat., 9/19 11:00am Louisville at Kentucky Kentucky by 3.3 Kentucky -14 Louisville
Eastern Michigan at Michigan Michigan by 16.0 Michigan -24 Michigan
California at Minnesota Minny by 0.2 (?) Cal -14 MINNESOTA
East Carolina at North Carolina UNC by 3.5 UNC -7.5 ECU
Temple at Penn State PSU by 26 PSU -30 Temple
Boston College at Clemson Clemson by 5.4 Clemson -6.5 BC
Wofford at Wisconsin Wiscy by 21.2 N/A
Ball State at Army Army by 1.4 Army -8.5 Ball State
Duke at Kansas Kansas by 21.3 Kansas -23.5 Duke
Northern Illinois at Purdue Purdue by 6.8 Purdue -12 NIU
Ohio State vs Toledo tOSU by 27.1 tOSU -20.5 Ohio State
11:20am North Texas at Alabama 'Bama by 34.2 'Bama -39.5 UNT
1:00pm Furman at Missouri Missouri by 31.2 N/A
2:30pm Wyoming at Colorado Colorado by 7.6 Colorado -7 Colorado
Tennessee at Florida Florida by 16 (?) Florida -28.5 Tennessee
Michigan State at Notre Dame ND by 8.3 ND -10 Mich. St.
Middle Tennessee at Maryland Maryland by 16.1 Maryland -7 Maryland
Tulsa at Oklahoma OU by 15.3 OU -18 Tulsa
Nebraska at Virginia Tech Nebraska by 0.4 VT -2.5 Nebraska
USC at Washington USC by 28.3 USC -19.5 USC
Indiana at Akron Akron by 6.3 Akron -4.5 Akron
Alcorn State at Central Michigan CMU by 30.6 N/A
Utah at Oregon Oregon by 11.1 Oregon -5 Oregon
Virginia at Southern Miss USM by 3.3 USM -15 Virginia
UAB at Troy Troy by 12.4 Troy -6.5 Troy
2:35pm Arizona at Iowa Iowa by 9.1 Iowa -4 Iowa
4:00pm Nevada at Colorado State Nevada by 6.0 Nevada -3 Nevada
San Diego State at Idaho SDSU by 3.7 SDSU -3 SDSU
Florida International at Rutgers Rutgers by 21.2 Rutgers -15.5 Rutgers
Connecticut at Baylor UConn by 10.6 Baylor -10.5 UCONN
SMU at Washington State SMU by 0.1 SMU -6 Wazzu
5:00pm Gardner-Webb at N.C. State NC State by 34.2 N/A
Navy at Pittsburgh Pitt by 13.1 Pittsburgh -7.5 Pitt
5:30pm Elon at Wake Forest Wake by 24.4 N/A
5:45pm Cincinnati at Oregon State Ore. St. by 4.5 Ore. St. -1.5 Ore. St.
6:00pm Charleston S'ern at South Florida USF by 36.7 N/A
Central Arkansas at Western Ky. WKU by 4.6 N/A
UL-Lafayette at LSU LSU by 32.7 LSU -26.5 LSU
Northwestern at Syracuse 'Cuse by 0.2 Northwestern -3 'Cuse
Cal Poly at Ohio Ohio by 9.4 N/A
Rice at Oklahoma State OSU by 16.6 OSU -32.5 RICE
Mississippi State at Vanderbilt Vandy by 14.1 Vanderbilt -9 Vandy
Utah State at Texas A&M ATM by 2.8 (??) ATM -19.5 USU
Florida State at BYU BYU by 0.6 BYU -6 FSU
Bowling Green at Marshall Marshall by 9.1 BGSU -3 Marshall
Iowa State at Kent State KSU by 5.5 ISU -3 KSU
Nicholls State at Louisiana Tech La. Tech by 29.8 N/A
Florida Atlantic at South Carolina S. Caro. by 8.7 S. Caro. -20.5 FAU
Texas State at TCU TCU by 41.9 N/A
Miami-OH at Western Michigan WMU by 13.8 WMU -16.5 Miami-OH
6:30pm SE Louisiana at Ole Miss Ole Miss by 41.5 N/A
Air Force at New Mexico UNM by 7.3 (?) AFA -17 UNM
Buffalo at Central Florida UCF by 8.5 UCF -4.5 UCF
6:45pm West Virginia at Auburn Auburn by 4.1 Auburn -7 WVU
Georgia at Arkansas Arkansas by 2.1 Pick 'em Arkansas
7:00pm UTEP at New Mexico State NMSU by 1.3 UTEP -13.5 NMSU
UT-Martin at Memphis Memphis by 20.7 N/A
Texas Tech at Texas Texas by 18.1 Texas -17.5 Texas
8:00pm San Jose State at Stanford Stanford by 21.2 Stanford -17 Stanford
9:00pm UL-Monroe at Arizona State ASU by 3.6 (??) ASU -20 ULM
9:15pm Kansas State at UCLA UCLA by 12.9 UCLA -12.5 UCLA
10:00pm Hawaii at UNLV Hawaii by 3.3 UNLV -7 Hawaii

 

  • The numbers have no respect for California so far, picking Minnesota to win outright.  I can't completely explain why, other than the fact that their opponents haven't done them many favors so far by...well, being terrible.  Maryland almost lost to James Madison, and...well, the other opponent was Eastern Washington.  I assume the numbers will come around on Cal, but for now that's an interesting pick.  I think Minny does have a good chance of covering just because of the long trip Cal faces (teams never seem to do very well hopping multiple time zones--I will have to investigate that at some point).
  • The numbers also have VERY little respect for Arizona State or Air Force at this point...ASU is projected at 4-8 right now and barely beating UL-Monroe tomorrow, while AFA is going 5-7 and losing to a pretty sad New Mexico team.
  • And yeah, I have no explanation for the relatively close Florida-Tennessee pick.  None whatsoever.  Like I said, I think the numbers are getting cocky...that, or I haven't figured out the best way to slowly incorporate this year's results into the mix...we'll see.  But if I do well this week with some of these crazy picks, I'm going to pound my chest so hard I crack my sternum...

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