BTBS Week 3 Picks!
by Bill C. on Sep 18, 2009 9:30 AM CDT
in National Football 2009
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PrintWeek Two results: I should quit now--I went 30-14 last week, 7-2 in the Big 12. Keep that up for an entire season (yeah, right), and I'll be a millionaire pretty quickly!
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 30-14 (68.2%) | 53-31 (63.1%) |
| Big 12 | 7-2 (77.8%) | 11-6 (64.7%) |
| "LOCKS" | 2-2 (50.0%) | 5-4 (55.6%) |
Locks (defined as any game where the spread and my projections differ by more than about 12.5 points or so) are doing worse than everything else. Makes total sense. Anyway, is this a weekend for another major surge, or is it "regression to the mean" time? Some of the picks make little sense to me, so I'm thinking the numbers have gotten cocky and are in for a dose of reality this week...of course, every time I disagree with the numbers, they make me look stupid. And yes, I am referring to the numbers as their own person now.
First, the Big 12 games.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Sat., 9/19 | 11:00am | Duke at Kansas | Kansas by 21.3 | Kansas -23.5 | Duke |
| 1:00pm | Furman at Missouri | Missouri by 31.2 | N/A | ||
| 2:30pm | Wyoming at Colorado | Colorado by 7.6 | Colorado -7 | Colorado | |
| Tulsa at Oklahoma | OU by 15.3 | OU -18 | Tulsa | ||
| Nebraska at Virginia Tech | Nebraska by 0.4 | VT -5 | Nebraska | ||
| 4:00pm | Connecticut at Baylor | UConn by 10.6 | Baylor -10.5 | UCONN | |
| 6:00pm | Rice at Oklahoma State | OSU by 16.6 | OSU -32.5 | RICE | |
| Utah State at Texas A&M | ATM by 2.8 (???) | ATM -19.5 | USU | ||
| Iowa State at Kent State | Kent by 5.5 | ISU -3 | Kent | ||
| 7:00pm | Texas Tech at Texas | Texas by 18.1 | Texas -17.5 | Texas | |
| 9:15pm | Kansas State at UCLA | UCLA by 12.9 | UCLA -12.5 | UCLA |
- Three Big 12 opponents are considered "locks" this week. UConn has been, so far, a major outlier in terms of how the numbers view them and how Vegas does. This has been the biggest difference thus far (basically 21 points between the spread and projections), but I guess it does bear mentioning that I'm 2-0 picking UConn ATS so far.
- Meanwhile, I'm not totally sure I can explain the other two "locks." Picking Rice to cover isn't a surprise since, in most of the blowout spreads, the numbers are picking the underdog, but I'd have still thought OSU would be projected by more than 16.6. And I have NO idea why USU is so close to ATM. I knew the numbers kind of liked USU (they're projected to go 5-7 right now, a nice improvement over last year), but 2.8 points? Really?
- Some pretty good spreads on the other game--Duke/KU, CU/Wyoming, Texas/Tech, and KSU/UCLA are all projected very close to the spread. Nebraska is projected to win outright against a 5-point favorite, while the numbers just do not respect Iowa State right now.
All games after the jump. And yes, I do have proof that I picked Miami last night.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 9/17 | 6:00pm | Georgia Tech at Miami-FL | Miami by 6.9 | Miami -4.5 | Miami (proof here) |
| Fri., 9/18 | 8:00pm | Boise State at Fresno State | Boise by 9.7 | Boise -7.5 | Boise |
| Sat., 9/19 | 11:00am | Louisville at Kentucky | Kentucky by 3.3 | Kentucky -14 | Louisville |
| Eastern Michigan at Michigan | Michigan by 16.0 | Michigan -24 | Michigan | ||
| California at Minnesota | Minny by 0.2 (?) | Cal -14 | MINNESOTA | ||
| East Carolina at North Carolina | UNC by 3.5 | UNC -7.5 | ECU | ||
| Temple at Penn State | PSU by 26 | PSU -30 | Temple | ||
| Boston College at Clemson | Clemson by 5.4 | Clemson -6.5 | BC | ||
| Wofford at Wisconsin | Wiscy by 21.2 | N/A | |||
| Ball State at Army | Army by 1.4 | Army -8.5 | Ball State | ||
| Duke at Kansas | Kansas by 21.3 | Kansas -23.5 | Duke | ||
| Northern Illinois at Purdue | Purdue by 6.8 | Purdue -12 | NIU | ||
| Ohio State vs Toledo | tOSU by 27.1 | tOSU -20.5 | Ohio State | ||
| 11:20am | North Texas at Alabama | 'Bama by 34.2 | 'Bama -39.5 | UNT | |
| 1:00pm | Furman at Missouri | Missouri by 31.2 | N/A | ||
| 2:30pm | Wyoming at Colorado | Colorado by 7.6 | Colorado -7 | Colorado | |
| Tennessee at Florida | Florida by 16 (?) | Florida -28.5 | Tennessee | ||
| Michigan State at Notre Dame | ND by 8.3 | ND -10 | Mich. St. | ||
| Middle Tennessee at Maryland | Maryland by 16.1 | Maryland -7 | Maryland | ||
| Tulsa at Oklahoma | OU by 15.3 | OU -18 | Tulsa | ||
| Nebraska at Virginia Tech | Nebraska by 0.4 | VT -2.5 | Nebraska | ||
| USC at Washington | USC by 28.3 | USC -19.5 | USC | ||
| Indiana at Akron | Akron by 6.3 | Akron -4.5 | Akron | ||
| Alcorn State at Central Michigan | CMU by 30.6 | N/A | |||
| Utah at Oregon | Oregon by 11.1 | Oregon -5 | Oregon | ||
| Virginia at Southern Miss | USM by 3.3 | USM -15 | Virginia | ||
| UAB at Troy | Troy by 12.4 | Troy -6.5 | Troy | ||
| 2:35pm | Arizona at Iowa | Iowa by 9.1 | Iowa -4 | Iowa | |
| 4:00pm | Nevada at Colorado State | Nevada by 6.0 | Nevada -3 | Nevada | |
| San Diego State at Idaho | SDSU by 3.7 | SDSU -3 | SDSU | ||
| Florida International at Rutgers | Rutgers by 21.2 | Rutgers -15.5 | Rutgers | ||
| Connecticut at Baylor | UConn by 10.6 | Baylor -10.5 | UCONN | ||
| SMU at Washington State | SMU by 0.1 | SMU -6 | Wazzu | ||
| 5:00pm | Gardner-Webb at N.C. State | NC State by 34.2 | N/A | ||
| Navy at Pittsburgh | Pitt by 13.1 | Pittsburgh -7.5 | Pitt | ||
| 5:30pm | Elon at Wake Forest | Wake by 24.4 | N/A | ||
| 5:45pm | Cincinnati at Oregon State | Ore. St. by 4.5 | Ore. St. -1.5 | Ore. St. | |
| 6:00pm | Charleston S'ern at South Florida | USF by 36.7 | N/A | ||
| Central Arkansas at Western Ky. | WKU by 4.6 | N/A | |||
| UL-Lafayette at LSU | LSU by 32.7 | LSU -26.5 | LSU | ||
| Northwestern at Syracuse | 'Cuse by 0.2 | Northwestern -3 | 'Cuse | ||
| Cal Poly at Ohio | Ohio by 9.4 | N/A | |||
| Rice at Oklahoma State | OSU by 16.6 | OSU -32.5 | RICE | ||
| Mississippi State at Vanderbilt | Vandy by 14.1 | Vanderbilt -9 | Vandy | ||
| Utah State at Texas A&M | ATM by 2.8 (??) | ATM -19.5 | USU | ||
| Florida State at BYU | BYU by 0.6 | BYU -6 | FSU | ||
| Bowling Green at Marshall | Marshall by 9.1 | BGSU -3 | Marshall | ||
| Iowa State at Kent State | KSU by 5.5 | ISU -3 | KSU | ||
| Nicholls State at Louisiana Tech | La. Tech by 29.8 | N/A | |||
| Florida Atlantic at South Carolina | S. Caro. by 8.7 | S. Caro. -20.5 | FAU | ||
| Texas State at TCU | TCU by 41.9 | N/A | |||
| Miami-OH at Western Michigan | WMU by 13.8 | WMU -16.5 | Miami-OH | ||
| 6:30pm | SE Louisiana at Ole Miss | Ole Miss by 41.5 | N/A | ||
| Air Force at New Mexico | UNM by 7.3 (?) | AFA -17 | UNM | ||
| Buffalo at Central Florida | UCF by 8.5 | UCF -4.5 | UCF | ||
| 6:45pm | West Virginia at Auburn | Auburn by 4.1 | Auburn -7 | WVU | |
| Georgia at Arkansas | Arkansas by 2.1 | Pick 'em | Arkansas | ||
| 7:00pm | UTEP at New Mexico State | NMSU by 1.3 | UTEP -13.5 | NMSU | |
| UT-Martin at Memphis | Memphis by 20.7 | N/A | |||
| Texas Tech at Texas | Texas by 18.1 | Texas -17.5 | Texas | ||
| 8:00pm | San Jose State at Stanford | Stanford by 21.2 | Stanford -17 | Stanford | |
| 9:00pm | UL-Monroe at Arizona State | ASU by 3.6 (??) | ASU -20 | ULM | |
| 9:15pm | Kansas State at UCLA | UCLA by 12.9 | UCLA -12.5 | UCLA | |
| 10:00pm | Hawaii at UNLV | Hawaii by 3.3 | UNLV -7 | Hawaii |
- The numbers have no respect for California so far, picking Minnesota to win outright. I can't completely explain why, other than the fact that their opponents haven't done them many favors so far by...well, being terrible. Maryland almost lost to James Madison, and...well, the other opponent was Eastern Washington. I assume the numbers will come around on Cal, but for now that's an interesting pick. I think Minny does have a good chance of covering just because of the long trip Cal faces (teams never seem to do very well hopping multiple time zones--I will have to investigate that at some point).
- The numbers also have VERY little respect for Arizona State or Air Force at this point...ASU is projected at 4-8 right now and barely beating UL-Monroe tomorrow, while AFA is going 5-7 and losing to a pretty sad New Mexico team.
- And yeah, I have no explanation for the relatively close Florida-Tennessee pick. None whatsoever. Like I said, I think the numbers are getting cocky...that, or I haven't figured out the best way to slowly incorporate this year's results into the mix...we'll see. But if I do well this week with some of these crazy picks, I'm going to pound my chest so hard I crack my sternum...
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Well a winning record is probably to be expected at this point
given that a lot of the picks are easy (Texas vs. university of north north east wussyville)… unless you’re picking to beat the vegas spread or something, in which case I’m not so sure.
BTW, every time I see these lines like “ASU -20”, I read it as “ASU minus 20. So ASU is losing???” Oh hyphens, how you frustrate me!
ATS
His picks are against the spread, meaning no picks are easy. Anyone can pick the winner of Texas vs. “university of north north east wussyville,” Picking the margin is quite a different story.
You've never been to Vegas, have you...
If you read ASU -20, that means you have to subtract 20 from their final score and STILL beat their opponent’s score to win against the spread. Likewise, if you pick Fresno State +7.5, you get to add 7.5 points to their final score. It’s basically Vegas’ estimated margin of victory.
Try not to take me too seriously
True
never been to Vegas… at least since I was 12. To be honest I’ve never understood how these things read, so I appreciate the explanation.
So to be clear then:
“UL-Monroe at Arizona State ASU by 3.6 ASU -20 ULM”
Means Bill is predicting a 3.6 point win for ASU, and the bookies predict at least a 20 point win for ASU… So if Bill bets ASU wins:
if the score is ASU 40, ULM 10, then he wins (beats the spread).
if the score is ASU 20, ULM 10, then he loses (doesn’t make the spread)
But what if he bets that ASU loses?
if the score is ASU 10, ULM 20, obviously he wins, but
if the score is ASU 14, ULM 10, then does he win (because ASU did not make the predicted spread) or he loses (because ASU still, technically, won)?
And ATS is some other guy’s rating? He thinks ULM wins?
Sorry to be slow here, this has just never been my world.
What are the school imposed constraints of travel?
How many days can the athletes (notice no student or / ) be away from classes ? Is it determined by the school? Is it determined by NCAA?
It would be interesting to see the projected outcomes vs real outcomes after a school has traveled 3+ , 3, 2, or 1 timezone.
This could be used by certain schools (Hawaii) to try and get perhaps more time to travel to allow for the best probable outcome.
I hate travel before sports; I flew over 24hrs and then, after one nights rest, was up to qualify rounds in a track meet. Oh I qualified, but then trying to get thru the semis and after was hell.The most painful races I have ever run. This is considering that I was getting each day a nights more rest, but it just kept piling on.
This sort of data could really help perhaps iron out some of the numbers, or at least “fine tune” your resultant numbers. This I would really like to see, because I really thing there is something to that.
Sponor of the Will Ebner Physical Therapy Center for Players Who've Been Hit By Will Ebner and Want to Try to Stop the Ringing. Or WEPTCPWBHBWEWTSR for short.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Sep 18, 2009 10:51 AM CDT reply actions
Excellent job Bill
Here are mine:
Miami -3
Fresno State +12
Army -6.5
Northwestern -3
Clemson -7
Western Michigan -16
Miss St. +8
Colorado -7
Utah +5
Washington +22.5
VTech -2.5
Nevada -1
Cal -13.5
Oklahoma -14
T A&M -17
FSU +7.5
Arkansas +1.5
Texas -17
UNLV -6
Stanford -19
LSU -27
Boise -7
Ball State +8
Pitt -7
Clemson Under 45
UNC Under 42
ECU +7.5
Miami (oh) +17
Iowa -5
Akron -4
S.Miss -15.5
Oregon -5
Oregon -5
K-State +12.5
Nebraska +5
Notre Dame -10
Toledo +21
West Virginia +7
Washington State +7
Idaho +3.5
Marshall +3
UCF +4
Rice +32.5
Tulsa +17.5
Louisville +14.5
Kent +3
New Mexico +17.5
Oregon State +1
Arkansas Over 53.5
UCLA/ Kstate Under 43.5
In Week 1 we went 20-24 (45%), -6.3 Units. Last week we went 39-22 (63%), +16.32 Units. For the season, we sit at 59-46 (56%), +10.02 Units.
God
Phil Steele, You, and now Tomahawk Nation are all taking Kent State…. What are you guys doing that Vegas is not lol!
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out this week,
I wouldn't doubt the numbers too much.
After all, I remember someone begging to place a wager against Bill’s numbers last week.
didn't a colorado fan also get pissed when Bill said cu would lose to colorado state?
"The field mouse is fast but the owl sees at night"
LOL
Well, here are some facts about last week: ISU was 9-1 ATS in the past 10 years prior to that game. Being a double-digit dog to Iowa is common, even though ISU had won 7 of the last 11 prior to last week.
All I am wondering is what Vegas is doing differently? I’ve seen three different places where Kent State is favored to beat Iowa State, despite the fact their starting QB and RB are out.. And that starting RB was on the verge of being the best rusher in Kent State history.
I’m not necessarily doubting the numbers, but just wondering if the numbers are based on Kent State playing their normal starters?
by Mark Kieffer on Sep 19, 2009 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I should add
That Vegas has Iowa State – 3 on this game, but I’ve seen three different places having Kent State win by between 3-10 points…
by Mark Kieffer on Sep 19, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
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