BTBS Week 1 Picks!

Not that I'm encouraging gambling or anything, but I want to start measuring the effectiveness of the rough S&P+ projections I've come up with for 2009, so I'm going to try to look at how it does picking winners and ATS this year.  With that in mind, below are the projections for every Week One FBS game.  You can find spreads for the 1-AA games if you really want to, and I have included my picks for those games too, but...well, I think "Betting on 1-AA games" is Sign #6 that you're a degenerative gambler.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Big 12 picks here.  All other games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs, 9/3 7:00pm North Dakota State at Iowa State Iowa State by 14.9 N/A
Saturday, 9/5 2:30pm Georgia at Oklahoma State OSU by 0.7 OSU -5.5 Georgia
Baylor at Wake Forest Wake by 6.9 Wake -2 Wake Forest
2:40pm Illinois vs Missouri Missouri by 10.8 Missouri +6.5 MISSOURI
6:00pm Northern Colorado at Kansas Kansas by 45.7 N/A
Florida Atlantic at Nebraska NU by 28.4 NU -22 Nebraska
BYU vs Oklahoma OU by 16.9 OU -22.5 BYU
UL-Monroe at Texas Texas by 40.9 Texas -41! UL-Monroe
New Mexico at Texas A&M ATM by 8.1 ATM -14 New Mexico
North Dakota at Texas Tech Tech by 35.9 N/A
6:10pm UMass at Kansas State K-State by 17.4 N/A
Sunday, 9/6 6:00pm Colorado State at Colorado Colorado  by 10.6 CU -10.5! Colorado


Now's another good time to mention that I actually tamped down Mizzou's projection a little bit to account for the unique talent lost.  The BTBS numbers still think underdog Mizzou wins outright, and the 17-point difference between spread and projection is about as big as there is this week.  What's more impressive than that, to me, is how many of these projections are dead on with the spread.  Don't know if that says good or bad things about these projections...we'll see.

Everything else after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thursday, 9/3 6:00pm Troy at Bowling Green Troy by 3.6 Troy -7 Bowling Green
Coastal Carolina at Kent State Kent by 11.5 N/A
South Carolina at N.C. State N.C. State by 4.3 NC State -5 South Carolina
Villanova at Temple Temple by 2.5 N/A
6:30pm North Texas at Ball State Ball State by 15.0 Ball State -16.5 North Texas
7:00pm Eastern Kentucky at Indiana Indiana by 15.0 N/A
North Dakota State at Iowa State Iowa State by 14.9 N/A
8:00pm Utah State at Utah Utah by 16.3 Utah -20.5 Utah State
9:15pm Oregon at Boise State Boise by 7.9 Boise -4 Bose State
Friday, 9/4 7:00pm Tulsa at Tulane Tulsa by 18.1 Tulsa -13.5 Tulsa
12:05am Central Arkansas at Hawaii Hawaii by 14.6 N/A
Saturday, 9/5 11:00am Appalachian State at East Carolina ECU by 13.6 N/A
Miami-OH vs Kentucky Kentucky by 16.9 UK -15 Kentucky
Montana State at Michigan State State by 23.5 N/A
Towson at Northwestern NW'ern by 30.9 N/A
Navy at Ohio State tOSU by 30.9 tOSU -21.5 Ohio State
Akron at Penn State PSU by 34.2 PSU -26.5 Penn State
Toledo at Purdue Purdue by 8.4 Purdue -10.5 Toledo
Minnesota at Syracuse Minny by 5.9 Minny -7 Syracuse
Liberty at West Virginia WVU by 20.9 N/A
11:05am Northern Iowa at Iowa Iowa by 29.6 N/A
11:21am Western Kentucky at Tennessee UT by 35.4 UT -29.5 Tennessee
12:00pm Jacksonville St. at Georgia Tech Tech by 29.8 N/A
Youngstown State at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh by 33.5 N/A
1:00pm Nicholls State at Air Force Air Force by 21.5 N/A
Northeastern at Boston College BC by 37.3 N/A
1:30pm Portland State at Oregon State OSU by 36.3 N/A
2:00pm Weber State at Wyoming Wyoming by 6.5 N/A
2:30pm Western Michigan at Michigan UM by 22.7 UM -12.5 MICHIGAN
Jackson State at Mississippi St. MSU by 17.8 N/A
Nevada at Notre Dame Nevada by 0.1 Nevada +14 NEVADA
Georgia at Oklahoma State OSU by 0.7 OSU -5.5 Georgia
San Jose State at USC USC by 41.2 USC -33.5 USC
Baylor at Wake Forest Wake by 6.9 Wake -2 Wake Forest
2:40pm Illinois vs Missouri Missouri by 10.8 Missouri +6.5 MISSOURI
3:00pm Rice at UAB UAB by 1.3 UAB -6 Rice
3:30pm Southern Illinois at Marshall Marshall by 11.8 N/A
5:00pm Samford at UCF UCF by 11.2 N/A
Middle Tennessee at Clemson Clemson by 20.5 Clemson -18.5 Clemson
The Citadel at North Carolina UNC by 26.2 N/A
William & Mary at Virginia UVa by 21.5 N/A
6:00pm Louisiana Tech at Auburn Auburn by 14.3 Auburn -13 Auburn
Richmond at Duke Duke by 3.7 N/A
Army at Eastern Michigan EMU by 0.2 EMU -6 Army
Charleston S'ern at Florida Florida by 55.1 N/A
NW'ern State at Houston Houston by 24.6 N/A
Northern Colorado at Kansas Kansas by 45.7 N/A
Florida Atlantic at Nebraska NU by 28.4 NU -22 Nebraska
UConn at Ohio UConn by 13.1 UConn -3.5 UCONN
BYU vs Oklahoma OU by 16.9 OU -22.5 BYU
Wofford at USF USF by 23.9 N/A
Alcorn State at Southern Miss USM by 37.6 N/A
UL-Monroe at Texas Texas by 40.9 Texas -41! UL-Monroe
New Mexico at Texas A&M ATM by 8.1 ATM -14 New Mexico
North Dakota at Texas Tech Tech by 35.9 N/A
Southern U. at UL-Lafayette ULL by 17.0 N/A
Northern Illinois at Wisconsin Wiscy by 16.3 Wiscy -16.5! NIU
6:05pm Miss Valley St. at Arkansas State ASU by 16.9 N/A
6:10pm UMass at Kansas State K-State by 17.4 N/A
6:30pm Indiana State at Louisville Louisville by 35.1 N/A
San Diego State at UCLA UCLA by 19.1 UCLA -19! UCLA
Western Carolina at Vanderbilt Vandy by 33.4 N/A
7:00pm Virginia Tech at Alabama Bama by 11.2 Bama -4 Alabama
Idaho at New Mexico State NMSU by 3.2 NMSU -2.5 NMSU
Stephen F. Austin at SMU SMU by 25.1 N/A
Stanford at Washington State Stanford by 8.0 Stanford -16.5 Wazzu
8:00pm Central Michigan at Arizona Arizona by 12.9 Arizona -14 CMU
Buffalo at UTEP UTEP by 10.3 UTEP -8 UTEP
9:00pm Idaho State at Arizona State ASU by 31.0 N/A
Maryland at California Cal by 11.9 Cal -21.5 MARYLAND
UC-Davis at Fresno State Fresno by 27.9 N/A
Sacramento State at UNLV UNLV by 14.7 N/A
9:30pm LSU at Washington LSU by 22.3 LSU -17 LSU
Sunday, 9/6 2:30pm Ole Miss at Memphis Ole Miss by 10.4 Ole Miss -16 Memphis
6:00pm Colorado State at Colorado Colorado  by 10.6 CU -10.5! Colorado
Monday, 9/7 3:00pm Cincinnati at Rutgers Rutgers by 2.6 Rutgers -6 Cincy
7:00pm Miami-FL at Florida State FSU by 6.2 FSU -6.5 Miami


Of the five seemingly "sure thing" games, one has a major question mark, and that is, of course, Michigan-WMU.  The projections have nothing to say about the drama going on there right now, and there's absolutely no telling how Michigan's players and coaches will handle the soap opera.  Of the other locks, I like Maryland quite a bit, but that's a really long road trip and there's at least a slight possibility that Cal is really, really good.  Consider that much less locky than the others.

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