BTBS Week 4 Picks!

Still a day behind...you'll see picks below from the Thursday and Friday games, but...well, you'll pretty easily be able to tell that I didn't cheat.  Not a good start this week.

Week Three Results: Went a mild 26-23-1 last week, but judging by how others did, maybe going a smidge over .500 this week was really a decent victory.  Sometimes you'll just see crazy weeks where the best projections system in the world isn't going to do too well.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 26-23-1 (53.0%)
79-54-1 (59.3%)
Big 12 6-4-0 (60.0%) 17-10 (63.0%)
"LOCKS" 3-3-1 (50.0%) 8-7-1 (53.1%)


In all, I'm perfectly happy with 59.3% overall, considering this was the first stab at both a projections system and a method for slowly phasing out the projections, week-to-week.

First, the Big 12 games.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Friday, 9/25 8:00pm Missouri at Nevada Missouri by 5.6 Missouri -7 Nevada
Saturday, 9/26 11:00am Southern Miss at Kansas KU by 3.5 (?) KU -14 Southern Miss (WIN)
1:10pm Tennessee Tech at Kansas State KSU by 29.9 N/A
2:30pm UTEP at Texas Texas by 35.7 Texas -35 Texas (WIN)
6:00pm Army at Iowa State ISU by 4.2 ISU -9 Army
Grambling State at Oklahoma State OSU by 37.8 N/A
Northwestern State at Baylor Baylor by 30.4 N/A
UAB at Texas A&M ATM by 3.8 ATM -15.5 UAB
UL-Lafayette at Nebraska NU by 23.8 NU -26.5 ULL
8:15pm Texas Tech at Houston Tech by 3.3 Tech +1
Tech
  • I'm worried that my system is favoring the underdog too much.  The Big 12 games will be a good test, as the underdog gets the nod in six of seven games.  Not optimistic here.

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Yesterday 6:30pm Ole Miss at South Carolina Ole Miss by 4.0 Ole Miss -3 Ole Miss
Friday, 9/25 8:00pm Missouri at Nevada Mizzou by 5.6 Mizzou -7 Nevada
Saturday, 9/26 11:00am Buffalo at Temple Temple by 7.8 Temple -2.5 Temple (WIN)
Rhode Island at UConn UConn by 44.3 N/A
Fresno State at Cincinnati Cincy by 14.6 Cincy -16.5 FSU (WIN)
Indiana at Michigan Michigan by 17.1 Michigan -21 Indiana (WIN)
LSU at Mississippi State LSU by 22.2 LSU -12.5 LSU
Michigan State at Wisconsin Wiscy by 7.2 Wiscy -3 Wisconsin (WIN)
Minnesota at Northwestern NW'ern by 0.9 NW'ern -2.5 Minnesota (WIN)
North Carolina at Georgia Tech GT by 8.8 GT -2.5 Ga Tech (WIN)
South Florida at Florida State FSU by 5.5 FSU -14.5 USF (WIN)
Southern Miss at Kansas KU by 3.5 KU -14 So. Miss (WIN)
12:00pm Marshall at Memphis Memphis by 4.5 Memphis -3 Memphis
1:00pm San Diego State at Air Force AFA by 1.3 AFA -16.5 SDSU (WIN)
Wake Forest at Boston College BC by 6.7 BC +2 BC (WIN)
1:10pm Tennessee Tech at Kansas State KSU by 29.9 N/A
2:00pm UNLV at Wyoming Wyoming by 7.5 Wyoming +5 WYOMING (WIN)
2:30pm Akron at Central Michigan CMU by 4.1 CMU -16.5 Akron
Arkansas at Alabama 'Bama by 12.4 'Bama -15.5 Arkansas
California at Oregon Oregon by 6.4 Cal -7 OREGON (WIN)
Central Florida at East Carolina ECU by 9.1 ECU -10.5 UCF (WIN)
McNeese State at Tulane Tulane by 6.0 N/A
Idaho at Northern Illinois NIU by 14.0 NIU -16.5 Idaho (WIN)
Illinois at Ohio State tOSU by 26.8 tOSU -14 Ohio State (WIN)
Miami-FL at Virginia Tech Miami by 2.0 Miami -2.5 Va Tech (WIN)
Pittsburgh at N.C. State Pitt by 3.7 Pitt +1.5 Pittsburgh
Rutgers at Maryland Maryland by 6.5 Maryland +2.5 Maryland
TCU at Clemson Clemson by 3.9 Clemson -3 Clemson
UTEP at Texas Texas by 35.7 Texas -35 Texas (WIN)
Western Kentucky at Navy Navy by 24.1 Navy -28.5 WKU (WIN)
3:00pm UL-Monroe at Florida Atlantic FAU by 2.4 FAU -4 UL-Monroe (WIN)
3:30pm Troy at Arkansas State Troy by 17.7 Troy +2 (??) TROY (WIN)
5:00pm Colorado State at BYU BYU by 21.0 BYU -15 BYU (WIN)
Florida at Kentucky Florida by 33.0 Florida -22 Florida (WIN)
6:00pm Arizona State at Georgia Georgia by 26.9 Georgia -12.5 GEORGIA
Army at Iowa State ISU by 4.2 ISU -9 Army
Ball State at Auburn Auburn by 27.6 Auburn -33 Ball State (WIN)
Boise State at Bowling Green Boise by 17.6 Boise -16.5 Boise State (WIN)
Grambling State at Oklahoma State OSU by 37.8 N/A
Maine at Syracuse 'Cuse by 19.2 N/A
Northwestern State at Baylor Baylor by 30.4 N/A
Sam Houston at Tulsa Tulsa by 34.6 N/A
Hofstra at Western Michigan WMU by 14.9 N/A
N.C. Central at Duke Duke by 27.3 N/A
Miami-OH at Kent State Kent by 9.0 Kent -7 Kent State (WIN)
Middle Tennessee at North Texas MTSU by 7.5 MTSU -6.5 MTSU (WIN)
Ohio at Tennessee Vols by 29.4 Vols -21.5 Tennessee
Toledo at Florida International Toledo by 1.4 Toledo -1 Toledo (WIN)
UAB at Texas A&M ATM by 3.8 ATM -15.5 UAB
UL-Lafayette at Nebraska NU by 23.8 NU -26.5 UL-Lafayette
6:30pm Louisville at Utah Utah by 14.8 Utah -14 Utah (WIN)
6:35pm Arizona at Oregon State OSU by 10.9 OSU -2 Oregon State
7:00pm Cal Poly at San Jose State SJSU by 12.1 N/A
Southern Utah at Utah State USU by 23.7 N/A
Iowa at Penn State PSU by 13.2 PSU -10 PSU
Notre Dame at Purdue Purdue by 3.4 (??) Purdue +7 PURDUE (WIN)
Vanderbilt at Rice Rice by 1.7 Rice +7.5 Rice
8:00pm Washington at Stanford Stanford by 5.5 Stanford -7 Washington
8:15pm Texas Tech at Houston Tech by 3.3 Tech +1 Texas Tech (TIE)
9:00pm New Mexico St. at New Mexico UNM by 9.1 UNM -9.5 NMSU (WIN)
9:15pm Washington State at USC USC by 37.3 USC -45 Wazzu (WIN)
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