BTBS Week 5 Picks!
by Bill C. on Sep 30, 2009 1:15 PM CDT
in National Football 2009
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PrintOn we go...and lookie! Earlier in the week this time!
Last Week: We were a solid (and downright normal) 63% successful last week, a smidge higher than the season average. Once again, the night games were the killer. We were 22-9 heading into the 6pm games, then went 9-9-1 from then on out. BTBS: make a lot of money until the sun goes down.
| Category | Last Week | Season |
| All Games | 31-18-1 (63.0%) | 110-72-2 (60.3%) |
| Big 12 | 2-4-1 (35.7%) | 19-14-1 (57.4%) |
| "LOCKS" | 4-1 (80.0%) | 12-8-1 (59.5%) |
Some ship-righting there with the Big 12 games...now every category--All, Big 12, and LOCKS--are between 57% and 60%. We'll just ignore that "Locks" are, in theory, supposed to be more successful than the others.
As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Thurs., 10/1 | 6:30pm | Colorado at West Virginia | WVU by 14.1 | WVU -17 | Colorado (WIN) |
| Sat., 10/3 | 2:00pm | Iowa State vs Kansas State | KSU by 1.0 | KSU +3 | KSU (WIN) |
| 2:30pm | New Mexico at Texas Tech | Tech by 22.9 | Tech -35.5 | UNM (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | Kent State at Baylor | Baylor by 17.6 | Baylor -21 |
Kent State (WIN) |
|
| 6:30pm | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | Arkansas by 10.4 | Arkansas -1.5 | Arkansas (WIN) |
|
| 7:00pm | Oklahoma at Miami-FL | Oklahoma by 1.7 | Oklahoma -7 | Miami-FL (WIN) |
- As bad as New Mexico has been, it's a bit surprising that Tech's projected win isn't much higher for the Drama Bowl. UNM's head coach can't stop cold-cocking his assistants, and the mutiny on the Leach Bounty is getting interesting. Tech wins easy no matter what, but still...strange.
- The two most interesting games are obviously Saturday evening...which means my picks are screwed, I guess. That would mean good things for ATM and OU.
- Once again, the numbers don't really like the Big 12...strangely enough. In non-conference games, the Big 12 is only picked to cover one of five games. That was an incorrect sentiment last week, so we'll see if things have turned around.
All games after the jump.
| Date | Time | Game | Projection | Spread | ATS Verdict |
| Wed., 9/30 | 7:00pm | Hawaii at Louisiana Tech | La Tech by 1.1 | La Tech -3.5 | |
| Thurs., 10/1 | 6:30pm | Colorado at West Virginia | WVU by 14.1 | WVU -17 | Colorado (WIN) |
| 7:00pm | Southern Miss at UAB | USM by 7.1 | USM -10 |
UAB (WIN) |
|
| Fri., 10/2 | 7:00pm | Pittsburgh at Louisville | Pitt by 2.5 | Pitt -6.5 | |
| 8:00pm | Utah State at BYU | BYU by 19.6 | BYU -24.5 | Utah State (WIN) |
|
| Sat., 10/3 | 11:00am | Clemson at Maryland | Clemson by 10.5 | Clemson -13.5 | Maryland (WIN) |
| East Carolina at Marshall | Marshall by 5.4 | Marshall +2.5 | |||
| Michigan at Michigan State | Michigan by 0.7 | PK | |||
| Northwestern at Purdue | Purdue by 11.1 | Purdue -6.5 | |||
| South Florida at Syracuse | USF by 7.6 | USF -7 | USF (WIN) |
||
| Toledo at Ball State | Toledo by 2.8 | Toledo -6.5 | |||
| Tulane at Army | Army by 8.3 | Army -6 | |||
| Virginia at North Carolina | Virginia by 0.3 (??) | Virginia +13.5 | VIRGINIA (WIN!!) |
||
| Virginia Tech at Duke | VT by 20.2 | VT -16.5 | |||
| Wisconsin at Minnesota | Minny by 0.6 | Minny -3 | Wisconsin (WIN) |
||
| 11:05am | Arkansas State at Iowa | Iowa by 33.3 | Iowa 20.5 | ||
| 11:21am | Alabama at Kentucky | Alabama by 18.3 | Alabama -17 | Alabama (WIN) |
|
| 12:00pm | Cincinnati at Miami-OH | Cincy by 23.6 | Cincy -27.5 | Miami-OH (WIN) |
|
| Temple at Eastern Michigan | EMU by 3.9 | EMU +5 | |||
| 2:00pm | Iowa State vs Kansas State | KSU by 1.0 | KSU +3 | KSU (WIN) |
|
| 2:30pm | Air Force at Navy | Navy by 14.8 | Navy -3.5 |
||
| Central Michigan at Buffalo | CMU by 3.6 | CMU -8.5 | Buffalo (WIN) |
||
| Florida State at Boston College | BC by 3.3 | BC +5 | BC (WIN) |
||
| LSU at Georgia | Georgia by 1.5 | Georgia -2.5 | LSU (WIN) |
||
| Memphis at Central Florida | UCF by 0.7 | UCF -7.5 | |||
| N.C. State at Wake Forest | Wake by 8.3 | PK | Wake (WIN) |
||
| New Mexico at Texas Tech | Tech by 22.9 | Tech -35.5 | UNM (WIN) |
||
| Penn State at Illinois | PSU by 20.9 | PSU -6.5 | PSU (WIN) |
||
| UCLA at Stanford | UCLA by 10.0 | UCLA +6 | |||
| Washington at Notre Dame | ND by 1.6 | ND -13.5 | UW (WIN) |
||
| Western Michigan at Northern Illinois | NIU by 13.9 | NIU -6.5 | NIU (WIN) |
||
| 2:37pm | Florida International at UL-Monroe | ULM by 12.5 | ULM -3.5 | ULM (WIN) |
|
| 3:00pm | Ohio at Bowling Green | BGSU by 5.1 | BGSU -2.5 | ||
| Wyoming at Florida Atlantic | Wyoming by 1.2 | Wyoming +3 | Wyoming (WIN) |
||
| 3:05pm | UNLV at Nevada | Nevada by 15.9 | Nevada -3.5 | NEVADA (WIN) |
|
| 6:00pm | The Citadel at South Carolina | SC by 34.8 | N/A | ||
| Kent State at Baylor | Baylor by 17.6 | Baylor -21 |
Kent State (WIN) |
||
| Ohio State at Indiana | tOSU by 24.7 | tOSU -16.5 | tOSU (WIN) |
||
| Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | Ole Miss by 6.3 | Ole Miss -9.5 | |||
| Oregon State at Arizona State | OSU by 9.9 | OSU +4.5 | Oregon St. (WIN) |
||
| 6:30pm | Georgia Tech at Mississippi State | GT by 10.6 | GT -4.5 | GT (WIN) |
|
| Texas A&M vs Arkansas | Arkansas by 10.4 | Arkansas -1.5 | Arkansas (WIN) |
||
| Tulsa at Rice | Tulsa by 8.1 | Tulsa -14 | |||
| 6:45pm | Auburn at Tennessee | Vols by 9.2 | Vols -1.5 | ||
| 7:00pm | UC-Davis at Boise State | Boise by 45.6 | N/A | ||
| New Mexico St. at San Diego St. | SDSU by 16.0 | SDSU -16.5 | |||
| Oklahoma at Miami-FL | Oklahoma by 1.7 | OU -7 | Miami-FL (WIN) |
||
| SMU at TCU | TCU by 30.6 | TCU -27.5 | |||
| USC at California | USC by 9.5 | USC -5.5 | USC (WIN) |
||
| 8:05pm | Houston at UTEP | Houston by 11.5 | Houston -16 | UTEP (WIN) |
|
| 8:15pm | Washington State at Oregon | Oregon by 28.2 | Oregon -31 | ||
| 9:30pm | Colorado State at Idaho | CSU by 2.6 | CSU -4 | Idaho (WIN) |
|
| Tuesday, 10/6 | 7:00pm | Middle Tennessee at Troy |
Troy by 12.4 |
? | ? |
For whatever reason, the Southern Miss/UAB game is off the books (meanwhile, MTSU-Troy isn't on the books yet), so I'll update when I find a line.
The WTF???? award has to go to the Virginia pick. NO idea what's going on there, but if somehow Virginia does win in Chapel Hill, you know where you heard it first. If (when) they don't, ignore that you saw it at all.
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Yeah...
…technically a 16-3 UNC win would still be a cover for me, so I’ve got hope there…still, though, the outright win pick was shocking.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
NFL BTBS picks?
Any idea of where I can get the best BTBS-like picks for the NFL? Does footballoutsiders have them?
not really, no...
…I think the lines on NFL games are generally a lot better than in college, and Aaron from FO has said in the past that they simply haven’t found much correlation between their projections and the spread…
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
Love this Bill. Here's Mine. We both like OrSt
College ball sits at 128-98, +21.74. NFL sits at 18-11, +6.4
This week, we are looking to go against the public sentiment.
Here were the opening hitters:
Georgia -2.5 LSU outgained in every major game so far.
Syracuse 7 USF hangover.
Minnesota -2 Not a big Wisconsin fan here, but might middle.
Buffalo +8.5 Faded the bulls last week, on them here.
Army -6
Georgia Tech -4 Hangover from LSU, GTech much better coached.
Michigan State +1 (100) Scalp
Northern Illinois -6.5
Bowling Green -2.5 Middle opportunity.
UNLV 3.5 Scared about this now.
Idaho +4
Iowa State -2
Memphis +7.5 (100)
New Mexico 35.5 (103)
Rice +14.5
SMU +28 (-113)
SDSt -16.5 (-105)
I added these yesterday and today
West Virginia 16.5 (-103) This is tonight, and I don’t like Colorado’s secondary. no Bradford helps.
UAB +10 Might head up to this game (I live in Tucaloosa)
Louisville +7 Pitt won’t be prepared.
Utah State +24.5 Like the hook.
USF/ Syracuse Under 46.5 USF’s offense is terrible.
Colorado Under 55 WVU’s defense underrated.
Marshall +120
Northwestern +7.5
NCST/ Wake Over 46 Neither team plays defense.
Clemson/ Maryland Under 48.5 Neither team plays offense
Virginia +14 Silly line
Virginia Under 42.5 Two defensive minded coaches
Ball State +180 The first of many moneyline shots.
Miami (OH) +29
Notre Dame -12.5 Washington is overrated still.
Duke +17 VTech takes a game off.
Alabama/ Kentucky Under 47 Bama’s offense comes out flat, UK’s never shows.
Miami +7.5
E. Mich 215 Upset special. I have had a great feel for the Temple team.
LSU/ UGA Over 51.5 No defense.
Gtech/ MisSt. Over 46
Oklahoma/ Miami Under 49.5 OU’s defense is very good.
Illinois +7.5 (100) Penn State Hangover
Michigan 127 Scalp
Oregon State +171 Wanted a touchdown, but ML will do
UCF -7 (-101) Scalp/side
Texas Tech -35 (100) Scalp/Side
Arkansas PK +100 Like the Hogs here
Arkansas/ T A&M Over 66.6 and the over
Tennessee -1.5 People are too in love with Auburn
Cal +4.5 +100
Arkansas State +21.5
Ark State/ Iowa Under 45 +100
Remember now, there are a few middles in there, and a few scalps
21-14 heading into the evening session...
…right at the 60% I seem to be getting used to…hopefully I don’t tank in the evening session like usual..
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
29-20 with three games left...
6-0 in Big 12 games, which is lovely…have had quite a few near misses today…
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
Alright, looks like we're ending up at 31-21 for the week...
59.6% for the week, 60.2% for the year. Consistency!
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
You hit the UVA pick
Impressive
_______________________________
Eric Berry is better at football than you.
Yeah, I really should just retire now.
That was the craziest pick the numbers have come up with, and it was right…all downhill from here.
Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!
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