BTBS Week 5 Picks!

On we go...and lookie!  Earlier in the week this time!

Last Week: We were a solid (and downright normal) 63% successful last week, a smidge higher than the season average.  Once again, the night games were the killer.  We were 22-9 heading into the 6pm games, then went 9-9-1 from then on out.  BTBS: make a lot of money until the sun goes down.

Category Last Week Season
All Games 31-18-1 (63.0%) 110-72-2 (60.3%)
Big 12 2-4-1 (35.7%) 19-14-1 (57.4%)
"LOCKS" 4-1 (80.0%) 12-8-1 (59.5%)


Some ship-righting there with the Big 12 games...now every category--All, Big 12, and LOCKS--are between 57% and 60%.  We'll just ignore that "Locks" are, in theory, supposed to be more successful than the others.

As always...Big 12 picks here...everything after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Thurs., 10/1 6:30pm Colorado at West Virginia WVU by 14.1 WVU -17 Colorado (WIN)
Sat., 10/3 2:00pm Iowa State vs Kansas State KSU by 1.0 KSU +3 KSU (WIN)
2:30pm New Mexico at Texas Tech Tech by 22.9 Tech -35.5 UNM (WIN)
6:00pm Kent State at Baylor Baylor by 17.6 Baylor -21
Kent State (WIN)
6:30pm Texas A&M vs Arkansas Arkansas by 10.4 Arkansas -1.5 Arkansas (WIN)
7:00pm Oklahoma at Miami-FL Oklahoma by 1.7 Oklahoma -7 Miami-FL (WIN)
  • As bad as New Mexico has been, it's a bit surprising that Tech's projected win isn't much higher for the Drama Bowl.  UNM's head coach can't stop cold-cocking his assistants, and the mutiny on the Leach Bounty is getting interesting.  Tech wins easy no matter what, but still...strange.
  • The two most interesting games are obviously Saturday evening...which means my picks are screwed, I guess.  That would mean good things for ATM and OU.
  • Once again, the numbers don't really like the Big 12...strangely enough.  In non-conference games, the Big 12 is only picked to cover one of five games.  That was an incorrect sentiment last week, so we'll see if things have turned around.

All games after the jump.

Date Time Game Projection Spread ATS Verdict
Wed., 9/30 7:00pm Hawaii at Louisiana Tech La Tech by 1.1 La Tech -3.5 Hawaii
Thurs., 10/1 6:30pm Colorado at West Virginia WVU by 14.1 WVU -17 Colorado (WIN)
7:00pm Southern Miss at UAB USM by 7.1 USM -10
UAB (WIN)
Fri., 10/2 7:00pm Pittsburgh at Louisville Pitt by 2.5 Pitt -6.5 Louisville
8:00pm Utah State at BYU BYU by 19.6 BYU -24.5 Utah State (WIN)
Sat., 10/3 11:00am Clemson at Maryland Clemson by 10.5 Clemson -13.5 Maryland (WIN)
East Carolina at Marshall Marshall by 5.4 Marshall +2.5 Marshall
Michigan at Michigan State Michigan by 0.7 PK Michigan
Northwestern at Purdue Purdue by 11.1 Purdue -6.5 Purdue
South Florida at Syracuse USF by 7.6 USF -7 USF (WIN)
Toledo at Ball State Toledo by 2.8 Toledo -6.5 Ball State
Tulane at Army Army by 8.3 Army -6 Army
Virginia at North Carolina Virginia by 0.3 (??) Virginia +13.5 VIRGINIA (WIN!!)
Virginia Tech at Duke VT by 20.2 VT -16.5 VT
Wisconsin at Minnesota Minny by 0.6 Minny -3 Wisconsin (WIN)
11:05am Arkansas State at Iowa Iowa by 33.3 Iowa 20.5 Iowa
11:21am Alabama at Kentucky Alabama by 18.3 Alabama -17 Alabama (WIN)
12:00pm Cincinnati at Miami-OH Cincy by 23.6 Cincy -27.5 Miami-OH (WIN)
Temple at Eastern Michigan EMU by 3.9 EMU +5 EMU
2:00pm Iowa State vs Kansas State KSU by 1.0 KSU +3 KSU (WIN)
2:30pm Air Force at Navy Navy by 14.8 Navy -3.5
Navy
Central Michigan at Buffalo CMU by 3.6 CMU -8.5 Buffalo (WIN)
Florida State at Boston College BC by 3.3 BC +5 BC (WIN)
LSU at Georgia Georgia by 1.5 Georgia -2.5 LSU (WIN)
Memphis at Central Florida UCF by 0.7 UCF -7.5 Memphis
N.C. State at Wake Forest Wake by 8.3 PK Wake (WIN)
New Mexico at Texas Tech Tech by 22.9 Tech -35.5 UNM (WIN)
Penn State at Illinois PSU by 20.9 PSU -6.5 PSU (WIN)
UCLA at Stanford UCLA by 10.0 UCLA +6 UCLA
Washington at Notre Dame ND by 1.6 ND -13.5 UW (WIN)
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois NIU by 13.9 NIU -6.5 NIU (WIN)
2:37pm Florida International at UL-Monroe ULM by 12.5 ULM -3.5 ULM (WIN)
3:00pm Ohio at Bowling Green BGSU by 5.1 BGSU -2.5 BGSU
Wyoming at Florida Atlantic Wyoming by 1.2 Wyoming +3 Wyoming (WIN)
3:05pm UNLV at Nevada Nevada by 15.9 Nevada -3.5 NEVADA (WIN)
6:00pm The Citadel at South Carolina SC by 34.8 N/A
Kent State at Baylor Baylor by 17.6 Baylor -21
Kent State (WIN)
Ohio State at Indiana tOSU by 24.7 tOSU -16.5 tOSU (WIN)
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt Ole Miss by 6.3 Ole Miss -9.5 Vandy
Oregon State at Arizona State OSU by 9.9 OSU +4.5 Oregon St. (WIN)
6:30pm Georgia Tech at Mississippi State GT by 10.6 GT -4.5 GT (WIN)
Texas A&M vs Arkansas Arkansas by 10.4 Arkansas -1.5 Arkansas (WIN)
Tulsa at Rice Tulsa by 8.1 Tulsa -14 Rice
6:45pm Auburn at Tennessee Vols by 9.2 Vols -1.5 Vols
7:00pm UC-Davis at Boise State Boise by 45.6 N/A
New Mexico St. at San Diego St. SDSU by 16.0 SDSU -16.5 NMSU
Oklahoma at Miami-FL Oklahoma by 1.7 OU -7 Miami-FL (WIN)
SMU at TCU TCU by 30.6 TCU -27.5 TCU
USC at California USC by 9.5 USC -5.5 USC (WIN)
8:05pm Houston at UTEP Houston by 11.5 Houston -16 UTEP (WIN)
8:15pm Washington State at Oregon Oregon by 28.2 Oregon -31 Wazzu
9:30pm Colorado State at Idaho CSU by 2.6 CSU -4 Idaho (WIN)
Tuesday, 10/6 7:00pm Middle Tennessee at Troy
Troy by 12.4
? ?


For whatever reason, the Southern Miss/UAB game is off the books (meanwhile, MTSU-Troy isn't on the books yet), so I'll update when I find a line.

The WTF???? award has to go to the Virginia pick.  NO idea what's going on there, but if somehow Virginia does win in Chapel Hill, you know where you heard it first.  If (when) they don't, ignore that you saw it at all.

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